In Indiana, he is very popular with Tea Partiers, I would say he is revered among them. Pence has just enough "constitution sounding" phrases to fool the average Tea Partier. He could certainly duplicate that in other states if he campaigned.
But I've been reading that he will run for governor, which is fine. I even think he will be a good fiscal presence in Indiana. He might even push for states rights, who knows? I will be happy if he doesnt run because their wont be a establishment/grass roots candidate, there will only be the establishment vs. Ron Paul.
I think any candidate like Pence who is establishment but strikes just the right chords with the Tea Party can win the Republican nomination this time around. The Tea Parties are too neocon still, and they are not sufficiently fiscally conservative....they would fall for a hack like Pence.