Any opinions on how...

[rich34]

Huckabee's potential run would affect Rand? I could see in some ways possibly helping in Iowa. Along with Santorum it would take away Cruz' support among the social cons, Rand I'm sure will draw from this group as well, but not like Huck or Santorum. Ron's support alone was nearly enough if not really enough if votes were counted properly to win anyway, if those same people break for Rand along with his new supporters that should be enough to take Iowa. I see Romney's support being divided among Christie and the other GOP establishment candidates. If Huck does indeed run Cruz and his pastor father should back out and endorse Rand, but I'll believe that when I see it.

 

[Rocco]

Rich, you are dead on target my friend. Huckabee entering helps us because it hurts Cruz severely. Cruz is trying to pull off the same basic thing Rand is (unite the social cons and the libertarians), except he's made further progress w/ social cons where Rand has made the more significant progress w/ libertarians. Both groups would have fallen back on their main base had their outreach not worked, but now Cruz has no "base" to return to should he not be able to win over libertarians. Huckabee is now the default option for social cons, Rand is the default option for libertarians and Cruz is in a real bind. I think his problem will ultimately be that he'll be everybody's second choice, but very few peoples first choice. Huckabee throwing his hat in the ring greatly decreases the chances of Cruz running, though I still believe he will run.

 

[rich34]

You're right I hope he don't but would bet my was he does. If he doesn't I sure hope he backs Rand. And I know many around here don't care for her but getting an endorsement from Palin would sure be nice since she's on team Rand and all. Well she said it not me : - )

 

[WD-NY]

Rich, the addition of any candidate besides Christie and Rand who could stay in the race beyond the first few states is bad for us/Rand imo.

The Establishment is going to run one - and only one - candidate. Whether that's Christie (probably) or Bush (possibly), matters not. Whomever it is will have a lock on roughly 25-40% of the moderate/RHINO/NeoCon/low-information-voter vote in nearly all the early, pre-April states (see the percentage breakdowns between Romney, Ron, Santorum & Newt here).

The other 60-70% is up for grabs.

So sure, Hucklebee might hurt Cruz and Santorum a little more than he hurts Rand, but he doesn't take a single percentage point away from Christie. And that's what matters most.

 

[erowe1]

Huckabee hurts us. Rand needs the religious right to win the primary. Without Huckabee in the race, Rand can win that demographic. Santorum is not nearly as much of a threat as Huckabee is.

In fact, if Huckabee runs, I'd call him the favorite to win the GOP nomination, no matter who else runs.

Cruz running would also hurt Rand. In fact, I think that probably for either Cruz or Rand to win, the other one needs to stay out of the race.

 

[rich34]

If Cruz stays out of it I think Rand can win this thing regardless of who they run. But I think Cruz running is how they plan on detailing Rand, or at least try. I think even with fewer debates Rand can really set himself apart from the rest of em. But then again maybe they'll give Rand the Ron treatment and prevent him from showing the people just how much better he is. If they pull that chit for some reason I don't see Rand playing as nice as Ron did.

 

[rich34]

Well another thing that just came to mind is if big money back Huck then at least he can go after Christie with it. I'm still curious just how much money Rand can raise. If its Ron levels he's in trouble, however if he can break through with the big money he'll be in great shape.

 

[Dianne]

Huckabee hurts us. Rand needs the religious right to win the primary. Without Huckabee in the race, Rand can win that demographic. Santorum is not nearly as much of a threat as Huckabee is.

In fact, if Huckabee runs, I'd call him the favorite to win the GOP nomination, no matter who else runs.

Cruz running would also hurt Rand. In fact, I think that probably for either Cruz or Rand to win, the other one needs to stay out of the race.

You may be correct, because the GOP democrats like Boehner, McConnell, McCain, Graham et al, are going to work harder and harder each day for a war within the alleged republican party. Those guys are already working on the Democratic agenda for 2016.

 

[philipped]

Does the GOP want to win?Can a true, modern, not TOTALLY socially but seriously fiscally conservative candidate win over a majority after 8 years of OBAMA, and 8 years of BUSH?Is this candidate gonna be another Bush? Another McCain? Romney?These are the kind of questions people should be asking themselves by the time the primaries are about to start. Our job should be convincing that RAND IS AND WILL BE DIFFERENT.

 

[angelatc]

If Cruz stays out of it I think Rand can win this thing regardless of who they run. But I think Cruz running is how they plan on detailing Rand, or at least try. I think even with fewer debates Rand can really set himself apart from the rest of em. But then again maybe they'll give Rand the Ron treatment and prevent him from showing the people just how much better he is. If they pull that chit for some reason I don't see Rand playing as nice as Ron did.

I pretty much agree with this, except I want to see Rand playing offense.

 

[erowe1]

Well another thing that just came to mind is if big money back Huck then at least he can go after Christie with it. I'm still curious just how much money Rand can raise. If its Ron levels he's in trouble, however if he can break through with the big money he'll be in great shape.

Big money will not back Huck.

 

[Anti-Neocon]

Someone crazy like Adelson might throw money behind an Israel-firster like Huckabee.

 

[libertarian101]

Don't get your hopes up guys because Rand will only be a one term senator as long as he has the same stance on immigration he has at the moment. When the majority of democrats in Kentucky and nationally are to the left of you on immigration, you have no hope. Conservative voters are extremely against amnesty. Immigration issue is 100 times more important to them than social issue. Rand will get beat by everybody on national GOP primary and will lose his senate seat to tea party primary challenger easily. If Rand wakes up from his comma and changes his mind like Rubio, he will be unbeatable.

 

[rich34]

Big money will not back Huck.

I was thinking the same thing, but the article I read today suggested otherwise to even my surprise. I'm not sure who these big money people are, or if camp Huckabee was just making shit up, but they were saying they've been approached by big money to run this time and they'll back him. That's supposedly why Huckabee was giving it serious consideration because he was saying it wouldn't be like last time where he had no money.

If he runs he runs, but imo Huckabee is nothing more than a social conservative democrat and a hardcore democrat at that.

 

[Brett85]

It would hurt Rand a lot if Huckabee entered the race, particularly in Iowa. Huckabee would get a lot of the social conservative vote that Rand would get if Huckabee weren't in the race.

 

[rich34]

It would hurt Rand a lot if Huckabee entered the race, particularly in Iowa. Huckabee would get a lot of the social conservative vote that Rand would get if Huckabee weren't in the race.

I'm trying to think positive. I know Cruz' dad is a pastor and supposedly hit it off well with the Iowa pastors organization or whatever they call themselves so there's reason to believe they'll be somewhat loyal or at least some to Cruz. My hope is with Huckabee, Cruz, and Santorum that they'll really take this powerful bloc of voters in Iowa and minimize their affect due to be so diluted. We obviously know what this group is capable of IF they all stick together and back just one candidate. Huckabee in 2008 and Santorum in 2012. Ron was very competitive without this group fully backing him so any dilution of the vote amongst those voters could really cause Iowa to be a 3 to 4 man race. I'm thinking I see this as a positive for Rand so long as they don't unite behind just one candidate and if Cruz does run I don't see them all getting behind Huckabee with Cruz' father being a pastor. I seriously doubt Santorum can come remotely close to the vote total he received in 2012, but at the same time any support he draws in Iowa would come from this group in particular. There's simply just to many other options for the voter that aren't theocrats and unfortunately for Ricky boy that's all he brings to the table unless like Huckabee he wants to run as a democrat. Sure if Huckabee is able to unite this group he's going to be awful tough to beat, but I don't see him being able to do this. If Rand can take a small portion of them along with his father's supporters he's got it. I think Rand really needs to reach out to Palin who, according to her, is on Team Rand to endorse him and do some campaign appearances with him in Iowa. That right there outta be good enough to pull at least 5% of the social cons by herself.

After that NH isn't going to go for the whole social conservative thing so those candidates basing their candidacy on those voters alone will hit a road block here, however Rand should be able to pull off yet another win or close second. If Rand or the other candidates are smart, in almost every campaign attack ad against Christie will show the picture of him posing with Obama. Hopefully that should be enough to siphon off enough support to help Rand pull off a close win there. Ron pulled in 10% of the vote there so Rand will at the least need to triple that support. Romney won with 52% of the vote, but I don't see any candidate getting that much this time around since no one is the former governor from a neighboring state. Christie will probably be the guy to beat here, but unlike Romney, he'll be beatable.

Now once we get into the south, the social con candidates will rise up again, so it's very important Rand can at least steamroll the first two states. I know it's way to early to even be thinking about, but I'm bored and have been giving this some thought lately. Hell, if Jeb Bush decides to run it'll really be a cluster fuck. The positive about this scenario is that there will at least to be other big money candidates to attack each other. Damn I don't wanna wish my years away, but I'm really having a hard time waiting for primary season to roll around. The suspense will be killing me from now till then. In the meantime I'm still hoping that Cruz realizes that with both of them running both will lose and out of the two it's Rand not Ted that has the best shot at winning. However my gut feeling tells me that Cruz is to egocentric, self centered, and full of himself to actually believe that. I can really see him thinking to himself that he's the better positioned candidate so therefore Rand should not run and Ted should. I hope and pray that Team Rand can convince him he can have a nice cozy spot in the Paul administration should he decide not to run and endorse Rand.

 

[erowe1]

I was thinking the same thing, but the article I read today suggested otherwise to even my surprise. I'm not sure who these big money people are, or if camp Huckabee was just making shit up, but they were saying they've been approached by big money to run this time and they'll back him. That's supposedly why Huckabee was giving it serious consideration because he was saying it wouldn't be like last time where he had no money.

If he runs he runs, but imo Huckabee is nothing more than a social conservative democrat and a hardcore democrat at that.

I don't mean that he won't raise a lot of funds. He definitely has the potential to do that. But he won't be the anointee of the banking establishment.

 

[erowe1]

I'm trying to think positive. I know Cruz' dad is a pastor and supposedly hit it off well with the Iowa pastors organization or whatever they call themselves so there's reason to believe they'll be somewhat loyal or at least some to Cruz. My hope is with Huckabee, Cruz, and Santorum that they'll really take this powerful bloc of voters in Iowa and minimize their affect due to be so diluted.

If Huckabee runs, I don't think Santorum will be a factor.

But still, a problem with the way you put it is that it won't just be those candidates dividing up that block. Rand will just be another candidate taking only a chunk of that voting block, rather than all of it. And Rand needs the bulk of the religious right. If that whole block gets divided up between Huckabee, Cruz, and Rand, then that will just allow an establishment moderate to win the caucuses with the support of the party leaders, while the conservatives fail to unite behind someone.

And to make it worse, if there's not some other establishment candidate to fill that role, then the party leaders would be able to unite their forces behind Huckabee or Santorum. You can be sure they won't back Rand. And in that case winning with only a fraction of the conservative wing of the party would be impossible.

 

[anaconda]

Does the GOP want to win?

The people pulling the strings don't care which party is in power.

 

[anaconda]

But he won't be the anointee of the banking establishment.

Why not?