An actual analysis of mass shootings by race

[jmdrake]

So...the false narrative gets thrown around here a lot that most mass shooters are black. That's not true. A disproportante number of mass shootings are done by blacks. But when you talk about the mass shootings that people really care about, schools, churches, post offices, etc, it varies. Whites are disproportionately represented in K-12 school shootings and Asians are disproportinately represented in college shootings. Here's the breakdown.


See: https://www.statista.com/statistics/476456/mass-shootings-in-the-us-by-shooter-s-race/

And: https://www.theviolenceproject.org/key-findings/

The second link really breaks it down. Whites make up 60% of the population and do 53% of the mass shootings. Blacks make up 14% of the population and 21% of the mass shootings. So blacks are disproporionately more likely to do mass shootings than whites but whites do the most.

However, when you look at certain public locations like schools, whites are disproportaionately represented!. I'm going to annotate these stats with OP (>5% - 10% over population percentage), SOP (sligthly over population at 2% - 5% over), GOP (>10% over population) and UP, SUP, GUP for UNDER using the same percentages. Anything under 2% either way I'll call "POP" for population.

Baseline population percentages: Whites 60%, Blacks 14%, Latins 19%, Asians 6.1%. Native American (not shown in chart on link) 2.9%, Middle Eastern (not shown in chart on link) 2.1%.

Mass shootings in general: White 53% (UP), Blacks 21% (GOP), Latins 10% (UP), Asians 7% (POP), Middle Eastern 4% (SOP), Natives 2% (POP), Other 5%.

K-12: Whites 81% (GOP), Blacks 6% (GUP), Latins 6% (UP), Native American 13% (GOP. Not sure what's going on here. Reservation school anger?)

Post Office: Whites 75% (GOP), Blacks 25% (GOP).

House Of Worship: Whites 73% (GOP), Blacks 18% (SOP), Other 9%.

Outdoors: Whites 62% (SOP), Blacks 24% (GOP), Latins 5% (GUP), Asians 5% (POP), Other 5%.

Resturant / Bar / Nightclub : Whites 62% (SOP), Blacks 10% (SUP - and suprisingly low), Latins 14% (UP), Asians 7% (POP), Middle Easter 3% (POP), Other 3%.

Retail: Whites 55% (SUP), Blacks 25% (GOP), Latins 8% (GUP), Asians 8% (SOP), Middle Eastern (SOP).

Place of residence: White 46% (GUP), Blacks 23% (OP), Latins 23% (SOP), Other 8%.

Office Whites 41% (GUP), blacks 29% (GOP), Latins 18% (POP), Asians 6% (POP), Middle Easter 6% (SOP).

Warehouse Factor: Whites 40% (GUP), Blacks 24% (GOP), Latins 16% (SUP), Asians 4% (SUP), Other 16%.

College / University : Whites 33% (GUP), Blacks 11% (SUP), Asians 44% (GOP...like WTH?), Latins 11% (UP).

Government Building : Whites 8% (GUP), Blacks 38% (GOP. I guess blacks are more angry at the government?), Asians 8% (SOP), Latins 31% (GOP. They're made with the blacks), Native Americans 8% (OP. They're mad too as this is the only stat the Natives even register on), Other 8%.

Where are the locations that get the most coverage when there is a shooting? School, Post Offices (remember when "going postal" was a thing? There was even a vdieo game with that title), and houses of worship.

 

[TheTexan]

Those numbers seemed off to me so I fact checked them.

The statista.com source says (after logging in with a free account) that their source is Mother Jones.

The reason the numbers seemed off, is that Mother Jones excludes gang violence from their numbers:

For at least the past decade, the F.B.I. regarded a mass shooting as a single attack in which four or more victims were killed. (In 2013, a mandate from President Obama for further study of the problem lowered that threshold to three victims killed.) When we began compiling our database in 2012, we used that criteria of four or more killed in public attacks, but excluded mass murders that stemmed from robbery, gang violence or domestic abuse in private homes. Our goal with this relatively narrow set of parameters was to better understand the seemingly indiscriminate attacks that have increased in recent years, whether in movie theaters, elementary schools or office parks.

So yea, if you exclude gang violence, black violence is gonna seem a lot lower than it actually is.

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/12/mass-shootings-mother-jones-full-data/
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/04/opinion/how-many-mass-shootings-are-there-really.html

 

[Anti Federalist]

So...the false narrative gets thrown around here a lot that most mass shooters are black. That's not true. A disproportante number of mass shootings are done by blacks. But when you talk about the mass shootings that people really care about, schools, churches, post offices, etc, it varies. Whites are disproportionately represented in K-12 school shootings and Asians are disproportinately represented in college shootings. Here's the breakdown.

So, what you are saying is: "I'm willing to overlook black deaths at the hands of black shooters, so that the averages of mass shootings do not look bad for black people".

No.

Nobody is allowed to cherry pick the circumstances of a mass shooting so as to fudge the numbers into something more palatable.

A mass shooting is a mass shooting, regardless of whether it takes place in a school, in an urban subway car, Da'Shawns All Nite Liquor Store, or a country road.

 

[jmdrake]

Those numbers seemed off to me so I fact checked them.

The statista.com source says (after logging in with a free account) that their source is Mother Jones.

The reason the numbers seemed off, is that Mother Jones excludes gang violence from their numbers:



So yea, if you exclude gang violence, black violence is gonna seem a lot lower than it actually is.

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/12/mass-shootings-mother-jones-full-data/
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/04/opinion/how-many-mass-shootings-are-there-really.html

Okay. Fair enough. Except you apparently didn't look at the second link where I actually did my breakdown from! I say this because you highlight that the Statistica source " excluded mass murders that stemmed from robbery, gang violence or domestic abuse in private homes." The second link specifically had a category for mass shootings in private homes. See "Place of residence: White 46% (GUP), Blacks 23% (OP), Latins 23% (SOP), Other 8%." And "gang shootings" most likely fit in the "outdoors" category. (Outdoors: Whites 62% (SOP), Blacks 24% (GOP), Latins 5% (GUP), Asians 5% (POP), Other 5%.).

 

[TheTexan]

Okay. Fair enough. Except you apparently didn't look at the second link

I would have but I already exhausted my time limit of fact checking for the day. Only use reliable sources if you want to better get your point across cus otherwise people like myself will dismiss all of your other sources out of hand as I have now for lack of time lol

 

[jmdrake]

So, what you are saying is: "I'm willing to overlook black deaths at the hands of black shooters, so that the averages of mass shootings do not look bad for black people".

Nope. I'm saying that your claim that most mass shootings are done by black people is provably false. You remind me of my ex mother-in-law in this regard, and I generally like her. Over the past 24 hours she's been arguing with me over a post she put up on Facebook that wrongly claimed Donald Trump said he never met Jeffery Epstein along with a picture of the two of them at a party. That is a provably false claim and I pointed that out. From there she went with "How can you support Trump when he's a womanizer that cheated on his wife when they had a small child?" I responded with "I do not support Trump, but regardless you support Bill Clinton who cheated on Hillary at the Whitehouse and you support Kamala Harris who was Willie Brown's side girlfriend while he was still married and he gave her political appointments." Then one of her cousins chided me with "Well nobody's perfect." Well.....yeah! Finally it was "Bill Clinton did things for the middle class." Ummm...okay we can debate that, but that wasn't what we were talking about.

Same thing here. I'm all for doing something about black on black crime as long as it's not a repeat of "stop and frisk" or the 1993 racist Clinton / Gingrich / Biden crime bill, or Trump's latest proposal of even more immunity for the police. So miss me with your "overlook black deaths" nonsense! I called you out on a false claim. You probably believed it was true. I gave you the stats that show that it isn't. You should just say "Thank you jmdrake."

No.

Nobody is allowed to cherry pick the circumstances of a mass shooting so as to fudge the numbers into something more palatable.

A mass shooting is a mass shooting, regardless of whether it takes place in a school, in an urban subway car, Da'Shawns All Nite Liquor Store, or a country road.

Dude, what the hell are you even trying to say at this point? This isn't "cherry picking." White people commit the majority of the mass shootings period! And while you keep harping about the immigrant invasion, Latinos are far less likely as a part of the population to be mass shooters than any group including white peoiple. You claimed the majority of mass shooters where black. That's just not even close to the truth. Deal with it. Lastly, the K-12 shootings are and issue because people RIGHTLY care more about innocent children getting murdered than they do one group of gang bangers killing another group of gang bangers!

I pointed this out to you, and YOU ARE THE ONE CHERRY PICKING TO IGNORE THIS! When a group of black thugs killed black honor students and atheletes at a "sweet 16 birthday party" it was ALL OVER THE NEWS and it was DISCUSSED AT LENGTH HERE! If you can't tell the difference between that and some random people that we so far know nothing about on a subway, then I seriously feel sorry for you! To be honest, we don't even know the race of the people killed on the subway. You just assumed they were black. With the black high school students we saw their pictures, learned their names, learned about their college prospects, what they wanted to do with their lives etc. It was a national story. And yes all of the shooters that time turned out to be black. Your whole narrative is simply not true!

 

[jmdrake]

I would have but I already exhausted my time limit of fact checking for the day. Only use reliable sources if you want to better get your point across cus otherwise people like myself will dismiss all of your other sources out of hand as I have now for lack of time lol

Okay. Then the truth can hit you like a ton of bricks tomorrow.

 

[Anti Federalist]

I'm saying that your claim that most mass shootings are done by black people is provably false.

I'm saying you're wrong.

Your source lists 150 mass shooting since 1982.

I have no idea what they are using as a metric, but we all know that is horseshit.

So far in 2024 there have been 44 mass shootings in the US, defined as four or more shot/killed excluding the perp, which is a higher bar than the numbers you are using.

But not according to Britannica, which is using the same numbers that Mother Jones is using, which is the same numbers that Statistica is using:

They say only three mass shootings have happened in 2024.

Using their own metric, there have 44 mass shootings so far this year.

Of those: 25 have been committed by blacks, 8 have been committed by whites, 6 have been committed by Hispanics, 5 have been committed by Asians/Arabs.

Here's the list:

I have randomly fact checked these incidents to verify the story, they have checked out.

Feel free to do so yourself, and if you can find one or more of them to be inaccurate or false, I will adjust the numbers.

 

[jmdrake]

I'm saying you're wrong.

Your stats are horseshyt. There have been 384 mass shootings in 2024.

See: https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/reports/mass-shooting

 

[Anti Federalist]

Your stats are horseshyt. There have been 384 mass shootings in 2024.

See: https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/reports/mass-shooting

Then so are yours from Statistica claiming there have been only 150 mass shootings since 1982.

Now, National Conservative lists those as the 44 worst mass shootings of 2024.

But I'm going to start digging into the 384 claimed by GVA and see how that breaks down.

 

[jmdrake]

Then so are yours form Statistica claiming there have been only 150 mass shootings since 1982.

1) At least Statistica was using a definition of mass shooting that what's typcially drives the mass fear over mass shootings. Seriously, do you really stay up at night worrying about your daughter's ex boyfriend breaking in and killing you and your entire family? Hopefully not because hopefully if you have a daughter you raised her right. It's the stranger that you worry about. You think the stranger that will kill you is some Marxist, some member of the immigrant invasion, or some gangbanger. Statistically the average suburban or rural white person has is far more likely to be killed by the (most likely white) daughter's ex boyfriend.

2) At least Statistica has a reason for it's "undercount." What your excuse?

3) I've used more than one source for my stats.

4) The Statistica stats don't try to use mass stabbings to try to make a point about mass shootings.

 

[CaptUSA]

Does it even matter?

How about we group them by socio-economic factors instead of skin color?? I'm sure you'd see a MUCH higher correlation there!!

Or how about mental illness?? Or SSRI's for random attacks??

 

[Anti Federalist]

1) At least Statistica was using a definition of mass shooting that what's typcially drives the mass fear over mass shootings. Seriously, do you really stay up at night worrying about your daughter's ex boyfriend breaking in and killing you and your entire family? Hopefully not because hopefully if you have a daughter you raised her right. It's the stranger that you worry about. You think the stranger that will kill you is some Marxist, some member of the immigrant invasion, or some gangbanger. Statistically the average suburban or rural white person has is far more likely to be killed by the (most likely white) daughter's ex boyfriend.

2) At least Statistica has a reason for it's "undercount." What your excuse?

3) I've used more than one source for my stats.

4) The Statistica stats don't try to use mass stabbings to try to make a point about mass shootings.

Give me time and we'll settle this.

I am accounting the details of the 384 mass shootings claimed by GVA, this year.

So far, it's not looking good for your point.

 

[Anti Federalist]

Does it even matter?

Yes, it matters very much to me.

I realize to other people it does not.

But I can not prove my case unless I can get solid numbers to deal with.

So, thus the discussion.

 

[Anti Federalist]

You think the stranger that will kill you is some Marxist...

Yes, that is exactly what I think, I have made that very clear and I have a historical record of millions of dead and exterminated innocents to justify my very legitimate and pressing concern about this.

I cannot account for, nor can I persuade those that can not or will not see this clear and present danger.

This is my second biggest concern.

My first is the knowledge that our enemies are even now, as we speak, engineering man made viral plagues that will kill 99 percent of us.

As time goes by and I get older, all other concerns are starting to fade to black.

 

[CaptUSA]

Yes, it matters very much to me.

I realize to other people it does not.

But I can not prove my case unless I can get solid numbers to deal with.

So, thus the discussion.

I guess. It just seems divisive to me rather than focusing on the root causes. Namely, the cultural failures that lead to both crime and poverty. And for random crimes, the issues of mental illness (and the social acceptance of mental illness and a media culture that encourages people with mental illness to act out for notoriety).

 

[jmdrake]

Yes, that is exactly what I think, I have made that very clear and I have a historical record of millions of dead and exterminated innocents to justify my very legitimate and pressing concern about this.

I cannot account for, nor can I persuade those that can not or will not see this clear and present danger.

Right. And somehow you think that your incorrectly perceived lack of coverage of one black man killing 4 very likely homeless people plays into this. Ummmm....okay.

This is my second biggest concern.

My first is the knowledge that our enemies are even now, as we speak, engineering man made viral plagues that will kill 99 percent of us.

As time goes by and I get older, all other concerns are starting to fade to black.

Yeah....I posted an update about this the other day and the collective forum response was "meh..." Yes, Dr. Fauci has been caught dead to rights. Yes gain of function research in China is still being funded by the U.S. Yes Rand Paul is still beating the drums about this. And......crickets.

See: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showth...ese-Military-DESPITE-Evidence-Of-Lab-Leak-WHY

 

[CaptUSA]

Yes, that is exactly what I think, I have made that very clear and I have a historical record of millions of dead and exterminated innocents to justify my very legitimate and pressing concern about this.

I cannot account for, nor can I persuade those that can not or will not see this clear and present danger.

This is my second biggest concern.

My first is the knowledge that our enemies are even now, as we speak, engineering man made viral plagues that will kill 99 percent of us.

As time goes by and I get older, all other concerns are starting to fade to black.

 

[Anti Federalist]

Your stats are horseshyt. There have been 384 mass shootings in 2024.

See: https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/reports/mass-shooting

So, at the site you posted, I have just followed up on the first 25 mass shootings on the first page ranging from 4 Sept to 22 Aug.

https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/reports/mass-shooting

Out of 25, 8 were committed by blacks, 4 were committed by whites, 1 was committed by a Hispanic.

12 I was unable to confirm, because of the almost non existent reporting on them, which is a point I have been making all along.

But, based on the location, the victim's names and descriptions, the manner of the shooting and the town or city where the shooting took place, I will bet hard gold that every single one was committed by a black.



The reporting would go something like this:

5 men were shot at a house party at the 1200 block of MLK Jr. Way early this morning.

All five remain in serious condition.

Police have no description of the gunman, but want citizens to remain on the lookout for the suspect.



I'm moving on to page two.

Feel free to correct or double check my work.

 

[Anti Federalist]

Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar?

Or am I missing a hidden Freudian reference?