ABC/Wash Post National Poll: Rand in 6th!

[Crashland]

Exactly right. Trump is going down. It's a matter of time.

Yes, but is he going to bow out like nothing ever happened, or is he going to drop $100mil to fight against?

 

[erowe1]

Yes, but is he going to bow out like nothing ever happened, or is he going to drop $100mil to fight against?

That's a good question. I could see him sticking around just to keep Bush from breaking 50% in states.

 

[hells_unicorn]

I know this is a singular poll, but there is a certain degree of satisfaction in seeing Paul out ahead of most of these other irrelevant clowns, particularly Christie and Huckabee. I hope he continues to climb in subsequent polls, but I don't think it'll happen until after Carson and Trump start to fall.

 

[Batman]

I'm not sure he'll implode. He'll probably trend downward enough to remain competitive with Bush and anyone else who hangs in the high to mid teens.

 

[William R]

bump

 

[Sola_Fide]

Yes, but is he going to bow out like nothing ever happened, or is he going to drop $100mil to fight against?

Jeb is showing that money does not ensure success.

 

[William Tell]

I'm not sure he'll implode. He'll probably trend downward enough to remain competitive with Bush and anyone else who hangs in the high to mid teens.

+Rep for being Batman.

 

[supermario21]

It's better to be steady and weather the storm and hang around rather than look for fame and glory early on. Look at Walker, he's about to flame out and might not even make it to the Iowa caucuses. And look at Kasich and Fiorina, they have had a great post-debate period allegedly and their numbers are still pretty low. If you're Rand do you really lose sleep over Trump and Carson? You're basically tied with everyone that matters.

 

[PaleoPaul]

It's better to be steady and weather the storm and hang around rather than look for fame and glory early on. Look at Walker, he's about to flame out and might not even make it to the Iowa caucuses. And look at Kasich and Fiorina, they have had a great post-debate period allegedly and their numbers are still pretty low. If you're Rand do you really lose sleep over Trump and Carson? You're basically tied with everyone that matters.

Walker's not going to win a third term in Wisconsin, either.

 

[ssunlimited]

HEY I thought that when a candidate loses support, he can't get that support back? If that is so, how can Rand go up with having lost so much support(he was polling the highest nationally and in NH before)?

 

[hells_unicorn]

HEY I thought that when a candidate loses support, he can't get that support back? If that is so, how can Rand go up with having lost so much support(he was polling the highest nationally and in NH before)?

Probably because the polls were being sampled a certain way so that it looked like Rand was losing support. I'm pretty confident that he's been steady around 5-7% this whole time. His support base is committed to him, it's all the soft support that's been going to these so-called front-runners, and whatever soft support Rand may have had was there before everybody else started jumping in, so it didn't necessarily leave him, it just went to somebody else that was getting more headlines.

I don't think that 5-7% is a great place to be, but it's not the disastrous 1-2% that some of these polls were showing, which was probably the result of fiddling with the margin of error, or with the sample group to include more Neo-cons and idiotic, flavor-of-the-month Trump dupes.

 

[jonhowe]

4% margin of error means the single digits are all tied or within a point. The order they are in means absolutely nothing.

Margin of error isn't just a disclaimer.

 

[MarcusI]

HEY I thought that when a candidate loses support, he can't get that support back? If that is so, how can Rand go up with having lost so much support(he was polling the highest nationally and in NH before)?

Well, its a bit of an urban legend on wandering around the RPF that Rand "polled highest" on average during a noteworthy time frame.

Here is the look on the RCP average, starting July 2013 (maximum time span to which you can extend the graphical overview):

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep..._republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

Rand was at no point the undisputed frontrunner. In Oct 2013, and from May to August 2014 (which is ages ago, no candidate announced that he would run that early) he was leading the RCP average, but only by a margin - maximum difference to the 2nd place was exactly 1.0 %. He polled between 12% and 17% from July 2013 to July 2014 and between 8% and 12% from August 2014 to early July 2015. Since early July - thats exactly when T-Rumps polling numbers started to explode - Rand went down to below 5%.





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What is intresting about that ABC/Wash Post poll is in my eyes:

(Answers from all participants, not only GOP leaning or registered voters)

13. Given what you’ve heard or read about them, would you say you support or oppose
Trump’s proposals on immigration? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
Support: 34
Oppose: 57
No opinion: 9

14. Regardless of whether or not you’d vote for him, do you think Trump is or is not
qualified to serve as president?
Is qualified: 37
Is not qualified: 60
No opinion: 2

15. Please tell me whether the following statement applies to Trump, or not:


a. He is honest and trustworthy
Yes 35
No 59
No opinion 6

b. He understands the problems of people like you
Yes 29
No 67
No opinion 4

c. He has the kind of personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively as president
Yes 33
No 63
No opinion 4


Even Hilary Clinton has much better results:


16. Please tell me whether the following statement applies to Clinton, or not:

a. She is honest and trustworthy
Yes 39
No 56
No opinion 5

b. She understands the problems of people like you
Yes 46
No 51
No opinion 4

c. She has the kind of personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively as president
Yes 56
No 41
No opinion 3

And from the ABC article:

"[...] Among groups, education continues to be one of the most striking differences in support for Trump; he's backed by 40 percent of leaned Republicans who lack a college degree vs. 19 percent of those who are college graduates. Less-educated voters are less likely to turn out, making this potentially a serious limitation for him.

Trump has some troubles on personal attributes even within his party. Among registered leaned Republicans, 35 percent see him as unqualified to be president, 44 percent think he doesn't have the kind of personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively and 47 percent say he doesn't understand their problems. None reaches a majority, but, for in-party ratings, these are potential concerns for Trump.[...]"

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1171a22016Politics.pdf
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clintons-support-drops-trump-carson-surge-gop-race/story?id=33695818

 

[69360]

HEY I thought that when a candidate loses support, he can't get that support back? If that is so, how can Rand go up with having lost so much support(he was polling the highest nationally and in NH before)?

Because this poll is only 25% registered republicans who can actually vote in a primary or caucus. Rand typically does better with independents.

 

[MrGoose]

I totally predicted the fall of Walker like I have predicted the fall of Trump. Trump will fall just like Walker into the less than 10% range. A few others might pop up and fall too. I expect Carson to fall as well. Again, everyone is bitching about Rand. We DO NOT want our candidate rising this early. Be middle of the pack or slightly less until the correct time to rise. You want momentum going into NH and Iowa. Then from there, the tone is set and the battle begins with the few candidates left.

This man knows what's up. Thin about McCain in 08 and Santorum in 2012. Frothy was in the back of pick up trucks driving around Iowa a couple weeks before the caucus. McCain was carrying his own luggage around too.

 

[Liberty74]

HEY I thought that when a candidate loses support, he can't get that support back? If that is so, how can Rand go up with having lost so much support(he was polling the highest nationally and in NH before)?

That only applies to the front runners where such candidate was clearly ahead with 20% or more support nationally. Rand hasn't been such front runner status like Walker and now Trump and Carson. Walker might get a little support back when Trump implodes and if Walker even stays in the race which I bet he quits before Iowa/NH.

Wasn't Rubio much higher in the polls too right after his announcement?

 

[Jackie Moon]

Oh yeah sure, but with Rand it's more about name recognition really. People may have heard his name but he's not as well known as some of the others. The thing with Rand though, the more people find out, the more that will actually like him long term. It's the other way around for the others. They may seem viable on the surface but as they start talking...

Agree. With it still being so early people don't really know much about any of the candidates... except for one really loud one that has a single issue. And is a name that everyone knows.

Play the game of stopping people on the street and showing them a picture of every candidate and there are probably only two from either side that most everyone would recognize... and they happen to both be the current respective frontrunners.

And yes, people will hear one thing they like for a lesser known candidate and say "hmm, I kind of like ____". But then realize later they were wrong. I've said a few times that I admit to doing that with Herman Cain really early in 2012. First time I heard him I thought, "hmm, 9-9-9 sounds interesting"... but a couple weeks later after hearing him talk more it was clear that was a mistake.

The thing that makes this all so unpredictable is that Trump has to implode. I still can't imagine a scenario where he doesn't. The question is what's going to happen then.

I honestly would still call Jeb the odds on favorite to win the nomination.

Exactly right. Trump is going down. It's a matter of time.

Agree. Trump will fall. And until he does the numbers are all going to be weird. Will be interesting to see how many candidates drop out before that while he is in there skewing the numbers.

Yes, but is he going to bow out like nothing ever happened, or is he going to drop $100mil to fight against?

Hmm, that's a good question. He's pretty sensitive and cares about his image and being a winner, so I could see him leaving when he starts to fall and having a reason to explain why other than that he is failing.

Some kind of family or business issue that he has to take care of, or that he didn't get fair treatment, or say that he was only running to get the immigration issue out there and now that it is he can leave and endorse someone else and still claim victory and take the credit.

I totally predicted the fall of Walker like I have predicted the fall of Trump. Trump will fall just like Walker into the less than 10% range. A few others might pop up and fall too. I expect Carson to fall as well. Again, everyone is bitching about Rand. We DO NOT want our candidate rising this early. Be middle of the pack or slightly less until the correct time to rise. You want momentum going into NH and Iowa. Then from there, the tone is set and the battle begins with the few candidates left.

I agree. It's still so early and there are a crazy amount of candidates. I don't think they can all even make it to Iowa.

It's a marathon, and the goal should just be to survive while the others drop out. By the time of Iowa and New Hampshire there will be fewer candidates left, the numbers will readjust, and there will be more speaking time during the debates.

There are debates scheduled for Feb 6th, Feb 13th, Feb 26th, March 10th, and another March TBA. Having all of those so close together is the opportunity to get your message out and people to make up their minds.

Just play the long game, survive until there are 4-5 candidates left, when the debates reach a peak, and pick up some wins in that list of early caucus states like Washington, Alaska, Maine, Kentucky etc and he'll be right there with a chance for Super Tuesday and beyond.

 

[Jan2017]

HEY I thought that when a candidate loses support, he can't get that support back? If that is so, how can Rand go up with having lost so much support(he was polling the highest nationally and in NH before)?

Polls are only asking preference of several hundred - at most 1000 - of a total statistical population of 130 million USA voters.
Alot of independents who have always been undecided too make up the room for upward mobility for Rand.

 

[ssunlimited]

Yes I know Rand was only winning by about 1%. He wasn't the undisputed frontrunner.

If they actually do polling, aren't they accurate with a MoE even with only 100-1000 sample?