A Realistic Strategy for a Brokered Convention

[No1ButPaul08]

Here's a newbie question. Does McCain get all of Romney and Giuliani's delegates?

Romney suspended his campaign, he's not releasing his delegates yet. Giuliani got a whopping 0 delegates for his 49.9 million he spent

 

[dkim68]

Can he give them to Ron Paul or Mike Huckabee if he endorses either of those two? I mean I doubt this is going to happen considering his "terrorism" statement... he's obviously endorsing McCain.

 

[Ricochet]

op, how do we know you are not a mole?

I trust Bradley's judgment.

 

[No1ButPaul08]

Can he give them to Ron Paul or Mike Huckabee if he endorses either of those two? I mean I doubt this is going to happen considering his "terrorism" statement... he's obviously endorsing McCain.

He can't really give them to anyone, he can recommend them. Romney won't publicly endorse McCain until he's the nominee, they hate each other. And like i said he's suspending (not ending, big difference in wording) his campaign, romney would like to be a player in a brokered convention scenario

 

[dkim68]

I don't know. To me, Romney's "in this time of war, I simply cannot let my campaign, be a part of aiding a surrender to terror" comment clearly translated to support for 100-years-in-Iraq-McCain or opposition to any anti-war candidate.

 

[No1ButPaul08]

I don't know. To me, Romney's "in this time of war, I simply cannot let my campaign, be a part of aiding a surrender to terror" comment clearly translated to support for 100-years-in-Iraq-McCain or opposition to any anti-war candidate.

He hates McCain. He didn't mention his name in the speech. Plus he still has his delegates, they are not released, nor do i think they ever will until McCain locks the nomination

 

[CorkyAgain]

He hates McCain. He didn't mention his name in the speech.

Are you sure about that? The report I read said the audience booed when Romney mentioned McCain's name.

Romney was saying that he disagrees with Sen McCain disagree on some things -- and this is where the crowd booed -- but that the war is of paramount importance.

In effect, he was telling his supporters to put aside their misgivings and get behind McCain.

 

[No1ButPaul08]

Are you sure about that? The report I read said the audience booed when Romney mentioned McCain's name.

Romney was saying that he disagrees with Sen McCain disagree on some things -- and this is where the crowd booed -- but that the war is of paramount importance.

In effect, he was telling his supporters to put aside their misgivings and get behind McCain.

Not 100% sure on the name mention. But very few people on Earth believe John McCain and Mitt Romney like each other

 

[dkim68]

You can't possibly believe he'll release his delegates to Paul or Huckabee. If by some miracle either of those two becomes the nominee this fall, will Romney be forced to release his delegates?

 

[No1ButPaul08]

You can't possibly believe he'll release his delegates to Paul or Huckabee. If by some miracle either of those two becomes the nominee this fall, will Romney be forced to release his delegates?

He's hasn't released them yet, he might not ever. And he can't release them to anybody. If he releases, they can vote for whoever they choose, not who romney tells them to

 

[Liberté]

He's hasn't released them yet, he might not ever. And he can't release them to anybody. If he releases, they can vote for whoever they choose, not who romney tells them to

I admire your zeal, but there will be no brokered convention and Ron Paul will not be getting the GOP nomination.

We have made some great progress with the movement. Any Romney delegates will go for McCain, afterall Romney is stepping down for the good of the Party. I expect Huckabee will hang it up soon as well. Heck, McCain was giving his psedu-acceptance speech today at the C-Pac.

 

[No1ButPaul08]

I admire your zeal, but there will be no brokered convention and Ron Paul will not be getting the GOP nomination.

We have made some great progress with the movement. Any Romney delegates will go for McCain, afterall Romney is stepping down for the good of the Party. I expect Huckabee will hang it up soon as well. Heck, McCain was giving his psedu-acceptance speech today at the C-Pac.

Do you expect Huckabee to drop if he cleans up in KS, VA, MD, and DC, I don't. These odds were increased greatly with Romney suspending his campaign. Demographically he can win these states

 

[Liberté]

Do you expect Huckabee to drop if he cleans up in KS, VA, MD, and DC, I don't. These odds were increased greatly with Romney suspending his campaign. Demographically he can win these states

Good or ill John McCain will be the GOP candidate. I am not being negative, just realistic. I think RP should stay in right up to the last primary, and walk into the Convention with 90+ National Delegates.. now that would be a Statement!

If Ron Paul wants to speak at the Convention I know he could, but he would probably have to give a feel good, GOPish, Go-McCain type speech and I just don't think that would happen.

McCain or Obama/Hilary.... what a choice.. Socialism Lite vs. Socialism. Hard decision. I will probably vote for McCain in the hope that he will be a 1 term President that will do less damage than Obama/Hilary and put my faith in the 2012 Liberty Candidate.

 

[dkim68]

Huckabee isn't going to "clean up" anywhere. Romney's support will transfer to McCain. Both of them are strongly pro-War.

 

[scandinaviany3]

A common theme around here is WAKE UP PEOPLE. Not as popular but people also like, "it will be a brokered convention." I say, WAKE UP PEOPLE, there hasn't been a brokered convention since 1952, before most states had people vote in primaries. The convention is not going to broker itself, something has to be done

As it stands, John McCain has ~720 delegates. Many people on here say, "it will be a brokered convention." That's the end of their story as they have no proof of that. McCain is on his way to steamroll to the nomination. The delegate count for the others, even RP at this point, really do not matter, as they do not stand a realistic chance at getting to 1191. If John McCain gets to 1191 it is over, and there will be no brokered convention. Therefore, the #1 goal at this point must be to Stop John McCain.
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The other goal is to get delegates in primary states where delegates are only bound from 1-3 ballots AND where the delegates aren't directly elected because they are supporters of a candidate. We'll call this a good state/bad state breakdown. The Caucus states will take care of themselves.

Good States: 19

AZ, AR, DW, FL, GA, ID, IN, MA, MI, MO, NJ, NM, NC, SC, SD, TX, VT, VA, OR

In these states delegates are elected away from the primary and could potenially be RP delegates in a brokered convention. These are the states where the work must be done on the delegate side. These delegates will initially be bound to other candidates, but if they are true RP supporters, they will turn once the convention becomes brokered.

Bad States: 19 and Puerto Rico (unless we get top 3????????)
AL (this one i'm not so sure, but delegates have already been elected anyway), CA, CT, DC, IL, Kansas (Caucus, but bad), KY, NH, MD, MS, NY, OH, OK, PN(not sure here either, delegates are on primary ballot, not sure if tied to candidate.), RI, UT (not really a bad state, but i figure Romney has got this one locked up), WI, WV (We got 3 delegates here, no more, Thank you Huck), WY

We are not get any delegates in these states. They are locked in until they are released. Most of them are for McCain. They are not getting released.

Caucus States: 13 + 4 territories(Guam, Am Samoa, VI, N Mariana)

AK, CO, HI, IA, LA, ME, MN, MT, NE (non-binding primary doesn't mean squat, similar to LA), NV, ND, WA (delegates are "morally bound" not "legally bound," which mean the primary and caucus don't mean squat, and the real action is at the district and state conventions, similare to LA and NE.

Caucus states can be good and bad. Most of them are still in the process and it's hard to determine who will get the delegates. They are good because RP can win delegates straight up in these states. They are bad because even though most of these states the delegates become unbound after a ballot or two, they are delegates because they support their candidate.
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That was goal #2, back to goal #1: STOPPING McCAIN

This is the part where I lose people by suggesting they vote for Mike Huckabee, read on please.

In Missouri. McNameDropper beat Huckabee by ~8,000 votes for all of Missouri's 58 winner-take-all delegates. Ron Paul got 25,000 votes. If RP's 25,000 votes go to Huckabee he wins and McCain doesn't get the delegates. Simply put, Ron Paul voters would have been much better off voting for Huckabee.

Delegates > votes........at this point.....delegates against McCain > votes for Ron Paul.

How do we do this, state by state we vote for Huck to stop McCain where necessary while trying to secure backroom delegates in the states I listed as good states.

Note some of the WTA are by state or by district/state but here they are pretty much the same as RP has no chance in those

2/9
KS: bad WTA caucus state (a rarity). Votes for Ron Paul are worthless. Vote Huck

Wash: worthless as delegates aren't legally bound, and they don't get elected here


2/12
DC: WTA we must vote for Huck, or McCain gets 18 very pledged delegates

VA: WTA, vote for Huck, become a delegate Very Important 67 WTA

MA: WTA we must vote for Huck, or McCain gets 37 very pledged delegates

2/19
Wash: worthless as delegates aren't legally bound, and they don't get elected here

WI: WTA we must vote for strongest of Romney or Huck, or McCain gets 40 very pledged delegates

3/4
OH: we need this WTA state of 88 delegates to go to Huck

RI: We need 15% to get delegates but in proportional so damage to McCain really can't be done here. Vote for Paul

TX: I can't in good conscience tell the people of Texas to not vote for Ron Paul. This is WTA by district/state. Some districts we might be better off trying to stop McCain. The 14th better go to RP. Another good state to become a delegate in.

VT: WTA, vote for Huck, become a delegate

3/11
MS: Another bad WTA state. A vote for Paul is a vote for McCain. A vote for Huckabee is a vote for Paul.

4/22
PA: A state where the delegate are on the ballot however I'm not sure if they are tied to a campaign (which would make it a bad state.) With that said, our goal should be keeping McCain delegates away from the convention. We have time here to figure that out.

Later States
Most of these RP should get the votes except IN, OR, and KY. I'll go into detail (and look like a genius),if we get to this point


If we can do all that we still have to get by the 5 state obstical. We can worry about that if the convention becomes brokered.

STOP JOHN McCAIN

EDIT: we should also try to convince Romney and Huck supporters to do this also.

EDIT: For the third party people, every email RP sends mentions a brokered convention, yet none mention a third party. He has also relied on the grassroots, this is our last chance for HIS goal

EDIT: Best case scenario might be a convention speech. Do not underrate this. Obama is who he is because of a convention speech
Ron really, really wants to speak at the convention. Not even sure if this is possible however. The more delegate the better

Does huckabee want to be pres or vp?

If he will chance it a lot of traiding on states could give huckabee victory and ron victories lowering mccains numbers and helping rons.

That is good no matter how you look at it for us in the states we lost. Once the the brokered convention happens all delegates in the deal should release to allow everyone to via for the presidency.

 

[Charles Wilson]

Folks, now is not the time to give up hope and make a deal. Many things can happen between now and September that will thrust Ron Paul in the spot light. For example: The economy will most likely continue the slide toward a major depression between now and September. The current glamour of the front runners will wear off when people start hurting and they will take a closer look at where the candidates stand on the economic issue. Up until now the issues have not been a deciding factor when selecting a candidate otherwise Ron Paul would be ahead in the delegate count

I really liked his speech before CPAC today. Ron Paul is da man!

There are only a few sure things in this life. God is in control. Ron Paul cannot lose this race until someone wins, unless he gives up. I will support him to the bitter end, who knows, he may win!

 

[No1ButPaul08]

Folks, now is not the time to give up hope and make a deal. Many things can happen between now and September that will thrust Ron Paul in the spot light. For example: The economy will most likely continue the slide toward a major depression between now and September. The current glamour of the front runners will wear off when people start hurting and they will take a closer look at where the candidates stand on the economic issue. Up until now the issues have not been a deciding factor when selecting a candidate otherwise Ron Paul would be ahead in the delegate count

I really liked his speech before CPAC today. Ron Paul is da man!

There are only a few sure things in this life. God is in control. Ron Paul cannot lose this race until someone wins, unless he gives up. I will support him to the bitter end, who knows, he may win!

This is not giving up or making a deal. It realizes some states and delegates are unwinnable. Ron Paul would be much better had he, "gave up" in Missouri and his votes magically went to Huckabee. To say otherwise is flat out a false statement.

 

[Crickett]

Folks, now is not the time to give up hope and make a deal. Many things can happen between now and September that will thrust Ron Paul in the spot light. For example: The economy will most likely continue the slide toward a major depression between now and September. The current glamour of the front runners will wear off when people start hurting and they will take a closer look at where the candidates stand on the economic issue. Up until now the issues have not been a deciding factor when selecting a candidate otherwise Ron Paul would be ahead in the delegate count

I really liked his speech before CPAC today. Ron Paul is da man!

There are only a few sure things in this life. God is in control. Ron Paul cannot lose this race until someone wins, unless he gives up. I will support him to the bitter end, who knows, he may win!

Good post. I am just completely demoralized by both RP getting literally blackballed off the televised talks today, and how he was not on certain ballots AND how the FCC is not responding to this manipulation. I am bummed.

 

[Leroy_Jenkems]

bump

 

[cindy25]

wouldn't the threat of a 3rd party be useful in a brokered convention?

in NY Rep would routinely get the Conservative party line, and Dems the Liberal party line; this would help to force the major party leaders to support those candidate rather than risk a 3 way split.