A while back I thought about what type of scenario would cause Ron Paul to run 3rd party, especially after saying he wouldn't.
I figured that the most likely scenario would be if he had the Republican nomination and the GOP stole it from him. He'd be so pissed that he'd run 3rd party. Under the terms of that scenario, he had the support, he should have had the nomination, and a 3rd party run would have a very good chance of success.
To this point, there has been none of that.
If Ron Paul was to win every single delegate not yet won by McCain, Huck or Mitt, I don't think he would have enough delegates to win the nomination.
But, he might think that he has enough support to maybe win if he ran 3rd party.
So, if you want him to run 3rd party, you have to rack up an impressive series of wins, and a whole lot of delegates.
Right now, the evidence out there points to less than 10% in a 3rd party run.
With that kind of likely outcome, he's not gonna run 3rd party.
Give him some sort of reason to think that he could win in the fall (hard evidence - lots of wins now, lots of delegates now) and he might reconsider running 3rd party in the fall.
We need to compel Ron Paul to run as a third party candidate. I realize third parties have not fared well in the past. This election will be different. The vast majority of Americans oppose the war in Iraq. The likely nominees from both major political parties both voted for the war. The Republican nominee is not a conservative and the democratic nominee is a witch. Ron Paul can beat McCain and Clinton in a three way race. The media can't ignore Ron Paul because he will be hugely influential on the outcome of the race. Even if they treat him as a spoiler they will not be able to ignore him.
We have a lot of work to do. The first order of business is convincing Ron Paul he can win. We can start by showing him he still has our support and by letting him know we want him to continue as a third party candidate. This means contacting the Reform, Unity, Libertarian, and Constitution Parties and encouraging them to support Ron Paul.
We can do it.
Who's with me?