2022 midterm election results * OFFICIAL THREAD *

Occam's Banana · Nov 7, 2022

The Collins has been slacking lately when it comes to the creation of "OFFICIAL THREAD"s, so I thought I would go ahead and create one for reporting and discussing the results of the upcoming 2022 U.S. midterm elections (Tuesday 08 November).

Also, if anyone wants to make any predictions about the outcomes, post them below.

I'll try to collect and track them here, and we'll see who's the best prognosticator.
(I probably should've thought to set this up a week or so ago, instead of a day or so before, but oh well ...)

Here are the categories:

(1) Predict the final overall ratio of Democrats to Republicans for the US Senate (100 total seats).

[TABLE="class: grid"]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #ABCDEF, colspan: 3"]US Senate ratio (D vs. R)[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #DCFEBA"]CAUCUS[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #0000FF"]Democrat (D)[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #FF0000"]Republican (R)[/TH]
[TH]TOTAL[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #DCFEBA"]INITIAL[/TH]
[TH]48 + 2 (I)[/TH]
[TH]50[/TH]
[TH]100[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #DCFEBA"]CONTESTED[/TH]
[TH]14 + 0 (I)[/TH]
[TH]21[/TH]
[TH]35[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #DCFEBA"]RESULT[/TH]
[TH]48 + 2 (I)
(+ 0)[/TH]
[TH]49
(- 1)[/TH]
[TH]99[/TH]
[TH]

270toWin Live Results

[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #DCFEBA"]PENDING[/TH]
[TH="colspan: 2"]1[/TH]
[TH]1[/TH]
[TD]

GA

Warnock (D) vs. Walker (R)

runoff: 06 December 2022

{ incumbent | challenger }

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Username[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: center"]Prediction[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Winner[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dary[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]+ 1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #DCBAFE"]CLOSEST[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]helenpaul[/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]+ 2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]luctor-et-emergo[/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]+ 3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]spudea[/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]53[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

(2) Predict the final overall ratio of Democrats to Republicans for the US House (435 total seats).

[TABLE="class: grid"]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #ABCDEF, colspan: 3"]US House ratio (D vs. R)[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #DCFEBA"]CAUCUS[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #0000FF"]Democrat (D)[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #FF0000"]Republican (R)[/TH]
[TH]TOTAL[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #DCFEBA"]INITIAL[/TH]
[TH]220[/TH]
[TH]212[/TH]
[TH]432[/TH]
[TH]

+ 3 vacancies

[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #DCFEBA"]CONTESTED[/TH]
[TH]ALL[/TH]
[TH]ALL[/TH]
[TH]435[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #DCFEBA"]RESULT[/TH]
[TH]209
(- 11)[/TH]
[TH]219
(+ 7)[/TH]
[TH]428[/TH]
[TH]

270toWin Live Results

[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #DCFEBA"]PENDING[/TH]
[TH="colspan: 2"]7[/TH]
[TH]7[/TH]
[TD]

AK-AL	Peltola (D) vs. Palin (R) vs. Begich (R)
CA-6	Bera (D) vs. Hamilton (R)
CA-13	Gray (D) vs. Duarte (R)
CA-21	Costa (D) vs. Maher (R)
CA-22	Salas (D) vs. Valadao (R)
CA-34	Gomez (D) vs. Kim (D) [non-partisan]
CO-3	Frisch (D) vs. Boebert (R)

{ incumbent | challenger }

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Username[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: center"]Prediction[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Winner[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dary[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]+ 0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #DCBAFE"]CLOSEST[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]helenpaul[/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]+ 39[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]luctor-et-emergo[/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]+ 27[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]spudea[/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]240[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

(3) Predict the final overall ratio of Democrats to Republicans for state governors (50 total seats).

[TABLE="class: grid"]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #ABCDEF, colspan: 3"]State Governors ratio (D vs. R)[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #DCFEBA"]CAUCUS[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #0000FF"]Democrat (D)[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #FF0000"]Republican (R)[/TH]
[TH]TOTAL[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #DCFEBA"]INITIAL[/TH]
[TH]22[/TH]
[TH]28[/TH]
[TH]50[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #DCFEBA"]CONTESTED[/TH]
[TH]16[/TH]
[TH]20[/TH]
[TH]36[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #DCFEBA"]RESULT[/TH]
[TH]24
(+ 2)[/TH]
[TH]25
(- 3)[/TH]
[TH]49[/TH]
[TH]

270toWin Live Results

[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #DCFEBA"]PENDING[/TH]
[TH="colspan: 2"]1[/TH]
[TH]1[/TH]
[TD]

AK	Gara (D) vs. Dunleavy (R) vs. Walker (I)

{ incumbent | challenger }

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Username[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: center"]Prediction[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Winner[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]helenpaul[/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]+ 2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]spudea[/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]+ 1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #DCBAFE"]CLOSEST[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

(4) Predict the outcomes of individual races
For bonus points, predict the percent margin of victory.

[TABLE="class: grid"]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #ABCDEF, colspan: 4"]Individual Races[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]RACE[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Username[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Prediction[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Running Tally[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]AZ governor:
Kari Lake (R)
Katie Hobbs (D) - WINNER[/TD]
[TD]A Son of Liberty[/TD]
[TD]Lake (R)[/TD]
[TD]0 for 1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]AZ senate:
Blake Masters (R)
Mark Kelly (D) - WINNER[/TD]
[TD]A Son of Liberty[/TD]
[TD]Masters (R)[/TD]
[TD]0 for 2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]FL governor:
Ron DeSantis (R) - WINNER
Charlie Crist (D)[/TD]
[TD]A Son of Liberty
69360[/TD]
[TD]DeSantis (R)
DeSantis (R)[/TD]
[TD]1 for 3
1 for 1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]GA governor:
Brian Kemp (R) - WINNER
Stacey Abrams (D)[/TD]
[TD]A Son of Liberty[/TD]
[TD]Kemp (R)[/TD]
[TD]2 for 4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NH senate:
Don Bolduc (R)
Maggie Hassan (D) - WINNER[/TD]
[TD]A Son of LIberty[/TD]
[TD]Bolduc (R)[/TD]
[TD]2 for 5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NV senate:
Adam Laxalt (R)
Catherine Cortez Masto (D) - WINNER[/TD]
[TD]A Son of Liberty[/TD]
[TD]Masto (D)[/TD]
[TD]3 for 6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NY governor:
Lee Zeldin (R)
Kathy Hochul (D) - WINNER[/TD]
[TD]A Son of Liberty[/TD]
[TD]Hochul (D)[/TD]
[TD]4 for 7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]PA governor:
Doug Mastriano (R)
Josh Shapiro (D) - WINNER[/TD]
[TD]familydog[/TD]
[TD]Shapiro (D)[/TD]
[TD]1 for 1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]PA senate:
Mehmet Oz (R)
John Fetterman (D) - WINNER[/TD]
[TD]A Son of Liberty
familydog[/TD]
[TD]Fetterman (D)
Oz (R)[/TD]
[TD]5 for 8
1 for 2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="colspan: 4"]

Final Tally

[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH][/TH]
[TD="colspan: 2"]69360
A Son of Liberty
familydog[/TD]
[TD]1 for 1 (100%)
5 for 8 (62.5%)
1 for 2 (50%)[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

dannno · Nov 7, 2022

Governor's races could be epic as well... NY, OR and even WA are within striking distance of republicans.

TheTexan · Nov 7, 2022

Illegitimate thread. It did not go through the proper channels.

A Son of Liberty · Nov 7, 2022

I predict that Democrats will absolutely election-deny the results of:

GA Governor
AZ Governor
FL Governor
NH Senate
AZ Senate

I also predict that Republicans will election-deny the results of:

NY Governor
PA Senate
NV Senate

I predict that Trump will announce (one way or the other) for 2024 after the results of 2022 are finalized.

This election is in the process of being "fortified". I would not be the least bit surprised to see a "stunning reversal" of the current pro-GOP polling.

Anti Federalist · Nov 7, 2022

My crystal ball is dark.

I think the whole thing is going to ride on the submerged voter angle.

How many people have done just like I have, and deliberately monkey wrenched pollsters when they have contacted me?

CCTelander · Nov 7, 2022

I predict that after the dust settles and everything is said and done, nothing much of substance will actually have changed.

Anti Federalist · Nov 7, 2022

CCTelander said:
I predict that after the dust settles and everything is said and done, nothing much of substance will actually have changed.

Yeah pretty much this.

Assuming there IS a "red wave" the best I can hope for is that some of the very worst from Biden et al gets stymied.

Snowball · Nov 7, 2022

dannno said:
Governor's races could be epic as well... NY, OR and even WA are within striking distance of republicans.

but the Dems count the votes.

familydog · Nov 7, 2022

My prediction for Pennsylvania:

Oz will win a close race and Mastriano will lose a close race. This will be determined after 5-7 days of "counting" votes.

Afterwards, Pennsylvania will continue its slide into California due to its free-for-all voting and smug prick keyboard warrior lolbertarians will tell me that either a) there was no difference between the D and R governor candidate or b) it doesn't matter because neither would advance liberty. Then, they will continue to tell me that the LP has a legitimate shot of winning races here if only enough people would vote for them.

acptulsa · Nov 7, 2022

tod evans · Nov 7, 2022

acptulsa said:

Mostly peaceful is strictly reserved for murder by kop.

Nobody really cares about elections, rigged or not, regardless how media tries to whip up a frenzy.

Republicans will harrumph and democrats will wail but that'll be the extent of it.

ClaytonB · Nov 7, 2022

AngryCanadian · Nov 7, 2022

familydog said:
My prediction for Pennsylvania:

Oz will win a close race and Mastriano will lose a close race. This will be determined after 5-7 days of "counting" votes.

Afterwards, Pennsylvania will continue its slide into California due to its free-for-all voting and smug prick keyboard warrior lolbertarians will tell me that either a) there was no difference between the D and R governor candidate or b) it doesn't matter because neither would advance liberty. Then, they will continue to tell me that the LP has a legitimate shot of winning races here if only enough people would vote for them.

The early votes for Pennsylvania is looking blue for now.
Amusing people are supposedly willing to support a politician who literately has brain damage.

helenpaul · Nov 7, 2022

reps +39 in the house
+2 in the senate and governors

Does anyone have a really good site where i can see all the results nationwide as they come in?

luctor-et-emergo · Nov 7, 2022

Lets guess the R's gain 3 senate seats, 27 seats in the house and a new dog catcher will probably be elected somewhere.

The Fetterman/Oz race should go for Oz. If you have any kind of sympathy for Fetterman you wouldn't vote for him but give him time to recover. But I'm not sure that will be the case. This is a real tie I think. For all the wrong reasons probably.

Occam's Banana · Nov 7, 2022

helenpaul said:
Does anyone have a really good site where i can see all the results nationwide as they come in?

If any of these are posted, I will add them to the "REAL-TIME SOURCES / LIVE STREAMS / etc." list in the OP.

Anti Federalist · Nov 7, 2022

Occam's Banana said:
If any of these are posted, I will add them to the "LIVE STREAMS / SOURCES" list in the OP.

Pretty sure RealClearPolitics has real time results on election day.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

helenpaul · Nov 7, 2022

Thanks

TheTexan · Nov 7, 2022

Anti Federalist said:
Pretty sure RealClearPolitics has real time results on election day.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

Ya sure but everyone knows most of the ballots come in starting at 2am the next morning and continue coming in for the next 3-10 days

ClaytonB · Nov 7, 2022

TheTexan said:
Ya sure but everyone knows most of the ballots come in starting at 2am the next morning and continue coming in for the next 3-10 days

The dead rush for no man...

2022 midterm election results *** OFFICIAL THREAD ***

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2022 midterm election results * OFFICIAL THREAD *