2016 Swing States

[NOVALibertarian]

And maybe it will help with African Americans but really, that's an irrelevancy. Blacks are only 13% of the population and most of them live in states Republicans easily win anyway. If Rand successfully portrays himself as the candidate of middle class families, then he dominates the white middle class vote in the North and Midwest and you are looking at a Reagan like landslide.

You're right about the "Elite vs. Everyone Else" populist platform being the way to go for Rand in 2016, although I think combining it somewhat with the "Red vs. Blue" would also be beneficial; probably more-so in Rand's outreach to the African-American community.

Whilst they're only 13% of the population nationwide, they're a significant amount of the population in some of the large cities that could determine where a swing state decides to swing. Rand's message can reach cities in swing-states such as Philadelphia, Columbus, and even Detroit. A combination of the "Elite vs. Everyone Else" and "Red vs. Blue" argument would be beneficial in those cities. If anything, invoking some of the "Red vs. Blue" rhetoric could help lure some African-Americans in these cities away from the Democrats for good, for a truly Conservative/Libertarian GOP would be entirely beneficial for their community, as opposed to the "Progressive" Democratic Party who, because of their ideology, will always be a detriment for their community no matter their intentions.

The "Red vs. Blue" appeal in these cities would work via Rand saying that the Democrats held power for nearly a decade, yet they did absolutely nothing to repeal portions of the War on Drugs which, by design or not, mainly targets African-American males. Because of the broken homes and ruined lives that have arisen as a result of this policy, Rand would be an idiot not to make this part of his main pitch to African-Americans in 2016. Like I mentioned before, Rand should also play towards the anti-illegal immigration sentiment that seems to growing within the Black Community. This is where the "Red vs. Blue" and "Elite vs. Everyone Else" argument would intertwine, for he could mention that the elite Democrats are more worried about people that aren't even citizens than the AMERICAN citizens in cities like Detroit who are crying for help, yet are being ignored by Obama and the rest of the Democrats in power. And yes, I know that some of this would be an exaggeration as opposed to what is actually happening, but no Populist platform has ever succeeded without a ton of exaggeration. Playing to the emotions of a population is the key to a Populist platform, imo.

I posted a video below to illustrate my point that some of the African-American vote is within Rand's reach. Whilst this takes place in Chicago (and I doubt that Rand will be able to swing Illinois), I doubt that this is just a feeling that is quarantined to just the African-American community in Chicago. The people in this video aren't advocating a switch to the Republican Party, but they're making it known that the previous loyalty that African-Americans seemed to demonstrate for the DNC seems to be fleeting. With the right message, Rand can gain their support, and thus expand the hole in the Progressive Titanic, that will lead to them sinking in November 2016.

For what it's worth, I think that being "betrayed" by one of their own (Barack Obama) might have led to some of them waking up.

 

[RonPaulMall]

You're right about the "Elite vs. Everyone Else" populist platform being the way to go for Rand in 2016, although I think combining it somewhat with the "Red vs. Blue" would also be beneficial; probably more-so in Rand's outreach to the African-American community.

Whilst they're only 13% of the population nationwide, they're a significant amount of the population in some of the large cities that could determine where a swing state decides to swing. Rand's message can reach cities in swing-states such as Philadelphia, Columbus, and even Detroit. A combination of the "Elite vs. Everyone Else" and "Red vs. Blue" argument would be beneficial in those cities. If anything, invoking some of the "Red vs. Blue" rhetoric could help lure some African-Americans in these cities away from the Democrats for good, for a truly Conservative/Libertarian GOP would be entirely beneficial for their community, as opposed to the "Progressive" Democratic Party who, because of their ideology, will always be a detriment for their community no matter their intentions.

The "Red vs. Blue" appeal in these cities would work via Rand saying that the Democrats held power for nearly a decade, yet they did absolutely nothing to repeal portions of the War on Drugs which, by design or not, mainly targets African-American males. Because of the broken homes and ruined lives that have arisen as a result of this policy, Rand would be an idiot not to make this part of his main pitch to African-Americans in 2016. Like I mentioned before, Rand should also play towards the anti-illegal immigration sentiment that seems to growing within the Black Community. This is where the "Red vs. Blue" and "Elite vs. Everyone Else" argument would intertwine, for he could mention that the elite Democrats are more worried about people that aren't even citizens than the AMERICAN citizens in cities like Detroit who are crying for help, yet are being ignored by Obama and the rest of the Democrats in power. And yes, I know that some of this would be an exaggeration as opposed to what is actually happening, but no Populist platform has ever succeeded without a ton of exaggeration. Playing to the emotions of a population is the key to a Populist platform, imo.

I posted a video below to illustrate my point that some of the African-American vote is within Rand's reach. Whilst this takes place in Chicago (and I doubt that Rand will be able to swing Illinois), I doubt that this is just a feeling that is quarantined to just the African-American community in Chicago. The people in this video aren't advocating a switch to the Republican Party, but they're making it known that the previous loyalty that African-Americans seemed to demonstrate for the DNC seems to be fleeting. With the right message, Rand can gain their support, and thus expand the hole in the Progressive Titanic, that will lead to them sinking in November 2016.

For what it's worth, I think that being "betrayed" by one of their own (Barack Obama) might have led to some of them waking up.

I hear what you are saying, but at the end of the day, the black vote is a sideshow. They are only 13% of the population and most importantly, they vote 90% Dem and generally less inclined to vote Republican. If Rand's populist campaign is so fantastic that it wins over a significant portion of the black vote then it would logically be even more successful in the white community. And the margins in the white community don't have to move that much. Increase the white vote from the 60% Romney got to 65% and the election will be a Randslide.

How many states are there where pretty much the entire population is white and yet the GOP still loses them? Why is the GOP losing Wisconsin, and Iowa, and Oregon, and New Hampshire and Maine? That's the real problem the Republicans have. These are all lily white states that Reagan won easily and yet now habitually vote Dem. The GOP has alienated white voters in the North and the West by associating their brand too heavily with Southern Evangelicals.

We have to keep our eye on the prize. Hillary isn't going to do nearly as well among blacks as Obama did and she knows it. She doesn't excite the black community at all and their turnout will be much lower than in the past. But Hillary is much more popular than Obama among whites. That where the battle for the Presidency is going to fought and won. Rand needs to do significantly better among whites than Romeny did and Rand is facing a candidate that is much stronger with the white community. It is a monumental challenge that Rand is facing, and the only way he's going to be able to do it is by running a populist, middle class focused campaign.

 

[tangent4ronpaul]

Rand needs to dump red/blue and go RINO (Independent). Have a platform that is different than anyone elses. A lot of voters are going independent. Tune into Fox Business's Cavuto, Stossol, Lou Dobs, the Independents, AJ's reporting (not the tin foil hat one), OANN not to mention the Internet only ones popping up. Will all the alternative news networks popping up, well - it says something.

Also the dems have a huge advantage in their use of big data and having phone banks all over the country...

Seriously, Rand needs a very different platform. Something closer to Carsons than anyone elses.

-t

 

[PaleoPaul]

Unfortunately, as long as there are talking (air)heads, he has to talk about red/blue at least somewhat.

 

[newbitech]

For Florida, Rand needs the state to not be winner take all. There is a possibility that might happen next cycle. If that happens, something like 100 delegates will be in play, then Rand can focus on the many libertarian strong hold counties in the state, like Pinellas county for instance where Ron received more than 15% of the nominating vote.

So really that battle for Florida is already going on in terms of the Republican nomination. Should Rand win the nomination, it will be a matter of activating grassroots in the state to turn out the vote in the general.

Florida has probably one of the most diverse demographics of any state. It is split along many demographic lines. Old generation vs young. Many racial lines. Many class lines. Small business and big business. And of course probably the deciding factor in the next general, men vs women.

I believe he'll need to determine very early in the cycle what his strong demographic is. Focus early on in shoring up the weak demographics and then once voting starts "pivot" towards amplifying his strong demographics.

 

[CaptUSA]

If Rand should win the nomination, the old swing state maps will be irrelevant. Nearly every state will be in play. You can probably cross off Maryland and DC - Virginia will be a close call. California? New York? Possible. Washington? Oregon? Likely. The old red/blue lines will be erased.

That's scary as hell for the establishment. They won't understand their poll numbers. They won't know how to place their bets.

 

[Crashland]

If Rand should win the nomination, the old swing state maps will be irrelevant. Nearly every state will be in play. You can probably cross off Maryland and DC - Virginia will be a close call. California? New York? Possible. Washington? Oregon? Likely. The old red/blue lines will be erased.

That's scary as hell for the establishment. They won't understand their poll numbers. They won't know how to place their bets.

If Rand were to secure the nomination, there are quite a few blue states that I could see voting for him. But are there really any red states that would flip? I can't picture them voting for Clinton

 

[PaleoPaul]

If Rand should win the nomination, the old swing state maps will be irrelevant. Nearly every state will be in play. You can probably cross off Maryland and DC - Virginia will be a close call. California? New York? Possible. Washington? Oregon? Likely. The old red/blue lines will be erased.

That's scary as hell for the establishment. They won't understand their poll numbers. They won't know how to place their bets.

California and New York going for Team Rand? Are you insane?! CA and NY both went for Obama by at least 60% in both 2008 AND 2012!!

 

[CaptUSA]

California and New York going for Team Rand? Are you insane?! CA and NY both went for Obama by at least 60% in both 2008 AND 2012!!

Remember why Obama won. In 2008, he took a much less aggressive foreign policy stance. In 2012, they did a pretty good job at making it about social issues in those states. Rand has opportunities on both fronts.

 

[NOVALibertarian]

Eh, whilst it would be nice to be able to flip California and/or New York, I don't see it happening in the foreseeable future. Rand should disperse resources in swing-states that he has a real chance to win, such as Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado, etc. Even if Rand does convert some people in those two Liberal strongholds, it still wouldn't be enough to put Rand over the top in those states.

 

[Crashland]

IMO Cali is more winnable than NY. But I don't think either of those will be flipping this time around. I think Rand could have a legit chance to pick up blue states like Oregon, Washington, Maine, Wisconsin, but he may have a hard time with NC, Virginia, Florida. Ohio, Colorado and Nevada will be very important as always

 

[LibertyEsq]

Eh, whilst it would be nice to be able to flip California and/or New York, I don't see it happening in the foreseeable future. Rand should disperse resources in swing-states that he has a real chance to win, such as Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado, etc. Even if Rand does convert some people in those two Liberal strongholds, it still wouldn't be enough to put Rand over the top in those states.

This is a proven failed strategy and Republicans need to abandon it yesterday.

 

[Tywysog Cymru]

The GOP has alienated white voters in the North and the West by associating their brand too heavily with Southern Evangelicals.

The White voters in the North and West are fiscally liberal, people vote based on economics.

 

[philipped]

If Rand should win the nomination, the old swing state maps will be irrelevant. Nearly every state will be in play. You can probably cross off Maryland and DC - Virginia will be a close call. California? New York? Possible. Washington? Oregon? Likely. The old red/blue lines will be erased.

That's scary as hell for the establishment. They won't understand their poll numbers. They won't know how to place their bets.

I must spread some Reputation around before giving it to CaptUSA again.

 

[Keith and stuff]

The White voters in the North and West are fiscally liberal, people vote based on economics.

Not in the swing states of NV and NH. There, a lot of the white voters tend to be fiscally conservative and socially liberal. At least the over 30 crowd.