2016 Swing States

[invisible]

Are you talking about the General election?

Both the primary and the general, since it wasn't specified in the OP, and the "winning issues" apply pretty equally to both in most cases (the exception here is IA, where there is usually a big difference between how the primary and general election candidates fare). Obviously, to win an election, you have to appeal to the voters on issues that are either of local or regional importance. For example, NH has done more than any other state to roll back the police state, so that is a "winning issue" there with proven statewide importance and popularity. But that same issue does not play well in a place like IA, where the candidate perceived as "most religious" almost always does best (especially in the Republican primary). For places where there isn't a clearly defined local or regional popular / "hot button" / "winning" issue (like OH and FL), I went with presenting policies or current issues in a local / regional historical context.

 

[Okaloosa]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2016

The 2016 Senate races will be a factor as the sitting Republicans in swing states may be able to swing their states to the Republican or at least force the Democrats to spend more money on those races. One downside could be that if Rand wins the nomination the establishment focuses their effort on Senate races but at least they line up with swing states.

Seats that are predicted to be competitive include Republican-held seats in Florida, Illinois, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, as well as Democratic-held seats in Colorado and Nevada. Democrats may also target seats in Republican-leaning states such as Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Alaska, and Arkansas, particularly if incumbents in these states retire or face strong primary challengers.

Sandoval may run against Reid in Nevada making that a toss up. Democrats are going to pickup PA and IL, and Republicans could keep Iowa, Florida, Ohio, and New Hampshire.

This scenario helps Rand and given that Virginia has Democrat Senators not up for re-election Rand could pull it off.

 

[PaleoPaul]

I don't see Pat Toomey losing PA, barring any screw-ups. Mark Kirk is pretty much your typical Illinois politician who will cast an occasional conservative vote, so he may or may not be safe.

 

[RonPaulMall]

Hasn't MN been at least relatively close recently? I think Paul as a candidate can put a lot of unconventional 1992-2012 states back in play. The YouGov numbers give him very high favorables in the Midwest and West, and I think especially in the west (Oregon/Washington) Paul can put some of those in play.

MN, WI, and MI are definitely states that Paul can win. The GOP has floundered in recent years because they are perceived as the party of Evangelicals and Investment Bankers and that's it. There is a war on the middle class in this country, and middle class voters, especially those in the north and west, have abandoned the GOP because they don't see it as representing their interests.

How does Rand win in 2016? Simple- do what Dave Brat did in Virginia. Make the war on the middle the centerpiece of your campaign and hammer the corporate and government elites that are conspiring to enrich themselves at the expense of the American Middle Class family. Rand does that, he wins in a landslide. He doesn't, he'll probably lose.

 

[invisible]

How does Rand win in 2016? Simple- do what Dave Brat did in Virginia. Make the war on the middle the centerpiece of your campaign and hammer the corporate and government elites that are conspiring to enrich themselves at the expense of the American Middle Class family. Rand does that, he wins in a landslide. He doesn't, he'll probably lose.

I've been saying something very similar throughout Ron's 2008 and 2012 campaigns. While all of the arguments presented are correct, they go over the heads of the average idiot low information voter. The overall message needs to be simplified to "We're all getting ripped off, and need to put a stop to it. The MIC, the medical IC, the prison IC, Wall St, the government - we're all being scammed by all of them, and it will only continue to get worse until we finally stand up and say we've had enough."

 

[PaleoPaul]

Populism wins elections. It's how Obama was able to win in a landslide in 2008.

 

[CPUd]

Some of those states like Florida are going to be tough to predict without knowing the tickets.

 

[TaftFan]

He better visit Georgia. The demographics are really shifting.

 

[PaleoPaul]

Some of those states like Florida are going to be tough to predict without knowing the tickets.

It's all about the I-4 Corridor. If Rand can win the counties in the I-4 Corridor, he wins Florida.

 

[Keith and stuff]

Hasn't MN been at least relatively close recently? I think Paul as a candidate can put a lot of unconventional 1992-2012 states back in play. The YouGov numbers give him very high favorables in the Midwest and West, and I think especially in the west (Oregon/Washington) Paul can put some of those in play.

Maybe. But if even so, not really. MN can swing, yes. It did in 2010. It doesn't swing Republican in Presidential elections years, though.

Minnesota backed incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama for re-election, giving him 52.65% of the vote, while Republican challenger Mitt Romney took 44.96%, a victory margin of 7.69%. Minnesota has [one of] the longest streak of voting for the Democratic candidate in presidential elections of any state, having not voted Republican since 1972.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Minnesota,_2012

If MN goes for a Republican for President, it will be a massive Republican wave. Even Reagan couldn't make it happen.

 

[Shane Harris]

Who knows

http://www.270towin.com/

 

[PaleoPaul]

I'm really curous to know why almost everyone has colored Florida and Nevada blue.

 

[RonPaulMall]

Maybe. But if even so, not really. MN can swing, yes. It did in 2010. It doesn't swing Republican in Presidential elections years, though.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Minnesota,_2012

If MN goes for a Republican for President, it will be a massive Republican wave. Even Reagan couldn't make it happen.

Reagan didn't invest any money or time in MN on account of it being Mondale's home state. His campaign people said afterwards that if they would have put any effort in to it at all, they would have won it and gotten all 50 states.

 

[Yung_Hustler]

If Rand can work on getting the black and working class vote, he can bring Michigan into play. It would also help him carry Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Rand needs to up his outreach to blacks and start on working class.

 

[PaleoPaul]

If Rand can work on getting the black and working class vote, he can bring Michigan into play. It would also help him carry Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Rand needs to up his outreach to blacks and start on working class.

Someone in another thread said he needs to start sounding like a populist, focusing on the working and middle classes. I think that's a really great idea, provided he doesn't sound like a Daily Kos blogger.

 

[Yung_Hustler]

Someone in another thread said he needs to start sounding like a populist, focusing on the working and middle classes. I think that's a really great idea, provided he doesn't sound like a Daily Kos blogger.

Libertarian populism is the way to go.

 

[NOVALibertarian]

If the immigration issue continues to spiral out of control, Rand could really take a populist and Pro-American stance on it. If he frames it right, he could make states such as Michigan flip into the Republican column. For instance, he could make the case that that whilst Detroit continues to decay and thousands of men, women, and children barely make it through the day (probably an exaggeration, but all populist platforms contain such exaggerations), the Democrats (yes, Rand must make this a Red vs. Blue argument in the general election, if only to make it clear who the "enemy" is) wish to put up millions of taxpayer dollars to create a resort for illegal children to live whilst some of those taxpayers starve.

I think that this approach could really help Rand with African-Americans, who might finally be waking up to the realization that the Democratic Party doesn't give a damn about them outside of the first Tuesday in November. If Rand can gain the support of a fair amount of African-Americans, it could be enough to push states such as Michigan and Ohio into his column. The best part about a populist message is that it wouldn't alienate Republican voters either, so it could only help him.

 

[Vanguard101]

Rand should at least come out and say he would reduce taxes for the middle class and make sure min wage jobs are not rising.

 

[RonPaulMall]

If the immigration issue continues to spiral out of control, Rand could really take a populist and Pro-American stance on it. If he frames it right, he could make states such as Michigan flip into the Republican column. For instance, he could make the case that that whilst Detroit continues to decay and thousands of men, women, and children barely make it through the day (probably an exaggeration, but all populist platforms contain such exaggerations), the Democrats (yes, Rand must make this a Red vs. Blue argument in the general election, if only to make it clear who the "enemy" is) wish to put up millions of taxpayer dollars to create a resort for illegal children to live whilst some of those taxpayers starve.

I think that this approach could really help Rand with African-Americans, who might finally be waking up to the realization that the Democratic Party doesn't give a damn about them outside of the first Tuesday in November. If Rand can gain the support of a fair amount of African-Americans, it could be enough to push states such as Michigan and Ohio into his column. The best part about a populist message is that it wouldn't alienate Republican voters either, so it could only help him.

It doesn't even have to be framed as red and blue though. Elites vs the Middle Class is the message. He just has pound home the fact that Hillary represents the elites. Remember, Dave Brat successfully used this strategy within the context of a Republican primary. Romney lost the last Presidential election because middle class families in the North, Midwest, and Mountain West saw him as the candidate of the investment banking elites.

And maybe it will help with African Americans but really, that's an irrelevancy. Blacks are only 13% of the population and most of them live in states Republicans easily win anyway. If Rand successfully portrays himself as the candidate of middle class families, then he dominates the white middle class vote in the North and Midwest and you are looking at a Reagan like landslide.

Rand should at least come out and say he would reduce taxes for the middle class and make sure min wage jobs are not rising.

Not enough. He needs to make a passionate defense of the middle class the centerpiece of his campaign, just like Brat did.

 

[Keith and stuff]

If Rand can work on getting the black and working class vote, he can bring Michigan into play. It would also help him carry Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Rand needs to up his outreach to blacks and start on working class.

You are the troll of the month. Thank you for your funny comments. I appreciate such hard work in crafting your message!