2016 Swing States

PaleoPaul

PaleoPaul

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OK, so the following 7 states were the closest states in the 2012 Election and are tyically considered swing states in every Presidential Election:

Florida
Ohio
New Hampshire
Iowa
Colorado
Nevada
Virginia

New Mexico, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania would be nice, too, but the previously mentioned 7 are the most important.

In order for Rand Paul to win these states, what would you say are his best strategies? What issues should he focus on there?

Discuss.
 
PaleoPaul said:
OK, so the following 7 states were the closest states in the 2012 Election and are tyically considered swing states in every Presidential Election:

Florida
Ohio
New Hampshire
Iowa
Colorado
Nevada
Virginia

New Mexico, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania would be nice, too, but the previously mentioned 7 are the most important.

In order for Rand Paul to win these states, what would you say are his best strategies? What issues should he focus on there?

Discuss.
Click to expand...

His best strategy is to win the primaries first and then see who he will face in the general.

Once the general started, here is how I see it:

Strong Paul (3); Nevada, Colorado, Iowa

Medium Paul (1); Virginia

Leans Paul (1); New Mexico

Leans dem (2); New Hampshire, Pennsylvania

Medium dem (1); Wisconsin

Strong dem (2); Florida, Ohio
 
Michigan also a swing state

but the easiest way to win is just change how the electoral votes are counted, and use Congressional districts instead of statewide in OH, PA, FL, WI, MI-all states with Rep legislatures and governors. that would be 60 or so electoral votes.
 
Ok, I can't resist this one.

FL - electability: "I can beat hillary without having to resort to hanging chads"
OH - Kent State would be a good place for an epic speech about tasking the FBI and attorney general to aggressively prosecute police misconduct
NH - ending any and all forms of electronic spying on our population / liberty vs security
IA - pro-life, protecting religious freedom
CO - states' rights, promise not to go after states that have nullified federal laws
NV - protecting property rights and ending federal land grabs
VA - gun rights, promise to work towards making sure VA residents can safely carry their guns into DC and MD, should they ever actually desire to go to those places
 
Pennsylvania may be a huge opportunity uniquely for Paul if he can cut into Philly margins. May be able to put NJ in play too if he advertises heavily in the Philly media market
 
Why no mention of NC? It swung in the most recent Presidential elections. Obama won it in 2008 and could have likely won it in 2012 if he spent a ton of money there. Plus, halfbacks are continuing to move there.

invisible makes a great point about NH. I don't think it is enough, though.
NH - ending any and all forms of electronic spying on our population / liberty vs security
Click to expand...

NV? Promise an executive order to ban all online gambling to secure 500 million in support by the richest man in NV :(

OH? Be loud and proud on his positions on immigration.

I have to disagree with LibertyEsq. I cannot imagine MN ever being a swing state in a Presidential election. For ME, maybe if enough money is thrown at the state, but I don't see any candidate throwing serious money at ME. Anyway, if MN is undecided 2 months before the election, the Republican is almost certainly going to win the election ;) This is not 1972, the last year a Republican won in MN.

What would really help Paul in several of these swing states is if a statist 3rd party candidate ran and got a couple percent of the vote, like when Nader ran.
 
Last edited:
LibertyEsq said:
Pennsylvania may be a huge opportunity uniquely for Paul if he can cut into Philly margins. May be able to put NJ in play too if he advertises heavily in the Philly media market
Click to expand...

If NJ is in play, the election is already over. A Republican will sweep much of the nation. Even PA hasn't gone Republican since 1988. That was because 1988 was Reagan's 3rd term (symbolically).
 
invisible said:
Ok, I can't resist this one.

FL - electability: "I can beat hillary without having to resort to hanging chads"
OH - Kent State would be a good place for an epic speech about tasking the FBI and attorney general to aggressively prosecute police misconduct
NH - ending any and all forms of electronic spying on our population / liberty vs security
IA - pro-life, protecting religious freedom
CO - states' rights, promise not to go after states that have nullified federal laws
NV - protecting property rights and ending federal land grabs
VA - gun rights, promise to work towards making sure VA residents can safely carry their guns into DC and MD, should they ever actually desire to go to those places
Click to expand...

Are you talking about the General election?
 
Keith and stuff said:
If NJ is in play, the election is already over. A Republican will sweep much of the nation. Even PA hasn't gone Republican since 1988. That was because 1988 was Reagan's 3rd term (symbolically).
Click to expand...

Well I'm not necessarily saying NJ will be in play but if Paul contests PA through the philly market, the dems might have to at least defend NJ. Especially if Christie plays a good republican and campaigns for Paul there.
 
Keith and stuff said:
I have to disagree with LibertyEsq. I cannot imagine MN ever being a swing state in a Presidential election. For ME, maybe if enough money is thrown at the state, but I don't see any candidate throwing serious money at ME. Anyway, if MN is undecided 2 months before the election, the Republican is almost certainly going to win the election ;)
Click to expand...

Hasn't MN been at least relatively close recently? I think Paul as a candidate can put a lot of unconventional 1992-2012 states back in play. The YouGov numbers give him very high favorables in the Midwest and West, and I think especially in the west (Oregon/Washington) Paul can put some of those in play.
 
Last edited:
LibertyEsq said:
Well I'm not necessarily saying NJ will be in play but if Paul contests PA through the philly market, the dems might have to at least defend NJ. Especially if Christie plays a good republican and campaigns for Paul there.
Click to expand...

Christie is not going to play a good Republican any more next time than he did last time. His Sandy photo-op with Obama may have put Obama over the top in 2012.
 
In your "possible" map, I'd put Florida as red. I think the I-4 Corridor will turn out strongly for Rand.
 
LibertyEsq said:
Well I'm not necessarily saying NJ will be in play but if Paul contests PA through the philly market, the dems might have to at least defend NJ. Especially if Christie plays a good republican and campaigns for Paul there.
Click to expand...

I would be incredibly worried if Christie campaigned for Paul, and wondering what Christie knows that I don't. If Rand is half the man his father is, Christie would sooner support the Democrat than him.
 
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