'08 New Hampshire Results, and my '12 prediction

[Michael Landon]

To compare the results between the '08 and '12 Iowa Republican Caucus;

In the '08 Republican Caucus there were 120,000 votes cast in the straw poll with the following results:

Mike Huckabee: 41,000 votes, 34%
Mitt Romney: 30,000 votes, 25%
Fred Thompson: 16,000 votes, 13%
John McCain: 15,500 votes, 13%
Ron Paul: 12,000 votes, 10%
Rudy Giuliani: 4,000 votes, 3%

In the '12 Republican Caucus there were 120,000 votes cast with the following results:

Mitt Romney: 30,000 votes, 24%
Rick Santorum: 30,000 votes, 24%
Ron Paul: 26,000 votes, 21%
Newt Gingrich: 16,000 votes, 13%
Rick Perry: 12,000 votes, 10%
Michele Bachmann: 6,000 votes, 5%

The '12 Republican Iowa Caucus had the following exit poll results:

25% of the voters were between the ages of 17-39, Ron Paul had the highest percentage.

38% of the voters were attending their first GOP Caucus, Ron Paul had the highest percentage of those with 33%.

23% of the voters were Independent, Ron Paul had the highest amount of those with 43%. In '08, according to the CNN exit poll, only 13% of the voters were Independent, with Paul receiving 29% of those voters. If you do the math, you'll notice that there were roughly the same amount of total voters between '08 and '12 but with a higher percentage of those being independent, which means that there were less Republican's voting. If this happens in New Hampshire, then that helps Ron Paul.

17% of the voters were considered Moderate or Liberal, Ron Paul had the highest amount of those with 40%. In the '08 New Hampshire primary, 73% of the Democratic voters were considered Moderate or Liberal, this percentage excludes the Very Liberal and somewhat Conservative voters.

Compare those numbers with what I posted about the Democratic Primary in New Hampshire and you'll see that there is a large percentage of potential voters that may end up voting for Ron Paul.

- ML

 

[rblgenius]

To compare the results between the '08 and '12 Iowa Republican Caucus;

In the '08 Republican Caucus there were 120,000 votes cast in the straw poll with the following results:

Mike Huckabee: 41,000 votes, 34%
Mitt Romney: 30,000 votes, 25%
Fred Thompson: 16,000 votes, 13%
John McCain: 15,500 votes, 13%
Ron Paul: 12,000 votes, 10%
Rudy Giuliani: 4,000 votes, 3%

In the '12 Republican Caucus there were 120,000 votes cast with the following results:

Mitt Romney: 30,000 votes, 24%
Rick Santorum: 30,000 votes, 24%
Ron Paul: 26,000 votes, 21%
Newt Gingrich: 16,000 votes, 13%
Rick Perry: 12,000 votes, 10%
Michele Bachmann: 6,000 votes, 5%

The '12 Republican Iowa Caucus had the following exit poll results:

25% of the voters were between the ages of 17-39, Ron Paul had the highest percentage.

38% of the voters were attending their first GOP Caucus, Ron Paul had the highest percentage of those with 33%.

23% of the voters were Independent, Ron Paul had the highest amount of those with 43%. In '08, according to the CNN exit poll, only 13% of the voters were Independent, with Paul receiving 29% of those voters. If you do the math, you'll notice that there were roughly the same amount of total voters between '08 and '12 but with a higher percentage of those being independent, which means that there were less Republican's voting. If this happens in New Hampshire, then that helps Ron Paul.

17% of the voters were considered Moderate or Liberal, Ron Paul had the highest amount of those with 40%. In the '08 New Hampshire primary, 73% of the Democratic voters were considered Moderate or Liberal, this percentage excludes the Very Liberal and somewhat Conservative voters.

Compare those numbers with what I posted about the Democratic Primary in New Hampshire and you'll see that there is a large percentage of potential voters that may end up voting for Ron Paul.

- ML

You must be drinking that ROn Paul Kool aid

 

[SenseForMiles]

My Prediction:

Romney 33%
Santorum 19%
Paul 17%
Gingrich 15%
Huntsman 14%
Perry 2%


I really think Romney definitely has a ceiling there, just like in every other state. I think the McCain Independent voters will split between Gingrich, Paul, and Huntsman rather evenly. I think Santorum will come in second just because of the bump he's getting from Iowa. It'll be real close between Santorum, Paul, Gingrich, and Huntsman, but I doubt any of them will receive 20% or more.. sorry guys

 

[pauladin]

I doubt Santorum will get that far in NH. Huckabee only got 11% after winning Iowa by a huge margin and he had a better campaign.

 

[SenseForMiles]

But there is no McCain running this time, which I think took more voters away from Huckabee than Paul, Gingrich, and Huntsman could take from Santorum.. I just don't think Ron Paul is going to come in second. The e-voting machines would never allow such a thing

 

[abstrusezincate]

My Prediction:

Romney 33%
Santorum 19%
Paul 17%
Gingrich 15%
Huntsman 14%
Perry 2%


I really think Romney definitely has a ceiling there, just like in every other state. I think the McCain Independent voters will split between Gingrich, Paul, and Huntsman rather evenly. I think Santorum will come in second just because of the bump he's getting from Iowa. It'll be real close between Santorum, Paul, Gingrich, and Huntsman, but I doubt any of them will receive 20% or more.. sorry guys

If we can't beat Santorum in NH, the campaign should fold. Way too pessimistic.

Mitt - 32%
Ron - 26%
Newt - 16%
Rick S - 12%
Jon - 11%
Rick P - 3%

I'd like that to be wrong, but even if Romney takes hits, I'm not sure we'll break 30%. It depends on if independents come out for us, really.

 

[SovereignMN]

How do they allocate the delegates? I know it's proportional with a 10% minimum so Huckabee was able to claim 1 in 2008 just by getting 11% but Romney was able to get 3 more delegates by being 20% higher and McCain was able to get 3 more delegates than Romney by only being around 5% higher. Can anyone good at math figure out the formula?

 

[J_White]

i think its a way too optimistic prediction,
i think if Santorum and Huntsman dont have a surge before NH, it can get close for 1st and 2nd place, but getting over Romney would be difficult.
Dont forget this is a Diebold state, so who knows what will happen.
But if Paul gets 1st, Mitt would be shaken and if Paul gets a close 2nd, then its good enough for me.

 

[itsnobody]

The NH debates may have an impact.

I'm still very optimistic I think we can guarantee at least 2nd place and NH is proportional so the percentage matters.

 

[No Free Beer]

I am not going to hate on you for your prediction because it takes courage to post this.

But, we were thinking the same thing about Iowa.

Sorry, I'm a quick learner. We need to Ron to attack Mitt and have have two stellar debates to even have a SHOT at Mitt in NH.

Sorry, I'm the downer here.

 

[floridasun1983]

I'm a new member here, but I have to say I am frankly discouraged by the pessimism of some supporters of Dr. Paul. Look, I'm not going to try and tell anyone that we are going to win 75% of the vote, everyone's going to drop out, and Dr. Paul will have the nomination wrapped up by next Friday. By the same token, though, he finished very strongly in Iowa (yes I know, it disappointed some people who thought he was going to win in a landslide), but if you don't think we have ANY shot of a first or strong second, then what is the point of all this? If he can't do well in NH, he can't win or do well anywhere IMHO. Its way too early to run up the white flag and give up.

I firmly believe everything hinges on Dr. Paul's debate performances. If he can get his message out effectively, he should pick up some steam. He's got to stay on message and drive home points that are palatable to the electorate. MANY people support the ideas Ron has, but he doesn't always articulate them in ways the average Joe "gets." He needs to take the fight to Romney in my opinion, he clearly has a ceiling and very soft support. The rest of the field are distractions, if Ron is in this to win it its between Paul and Romney, take the fight to him.

 

[kombayn]

Romney 34%
Ron Paul 22%
Santorum 14%
Huntsman 10%
Gingrich 9%
Perry 7%
Other 4%

A strong 2nd place showing should help Paul going toward Florida and the Cacusus' coming after that.

 

[clint4liberty]

Dr. Paul is between 18 to 24% in the New Hampshire Presidential Primary. The ground game in NH is key, phone from home program is
truly key, and if we could get more newspaper endorsements would help with individuals over the age of 55. Dr. Paul should run ads on jobs and the economy in NH this week, prepare for the Newt attacks on foreign policy etc., Rick Santorum is going to hit us hard as well, and everyone may or may not knock Mitt Romney.

 

[anaconda]

It's a stretch, but I think we actually have a chance in NH now. We have three newspapers endorsing us, a lot of momentum from Iowa, and are polling great right now.

A close second to Romney in New Hampshire (say within 6 points or so) is a monumental blow to Mitten's campaign. An utter embarrassment. A win for Paul would be epic, but it is not essential.

 

[gyrmnix]

Ron Paul needs to get 25% or higher and be the clear breakout 2nd place showing, with the others scattered around 10%.

But he also needs to do well in SC.

I agree with that, except we need Huntsman to do well enough to stay in through SC and I guess FL (might as well throw that state on the pile). Something like this:

Romney 32%
Paul 25%
Huntsman 15%

Enough to hopefully encourage Huntsman to continue to split the Romney vote in SC.

 

[helmuth_hubener]

If we can't beat Santorum in NH, the campaign should fold.

The campaign will never fold!

if you don't think we have ANY shot of a first or strong second, then what is the point of all this?

To spread the ideas of liberty, and ultimately free the country.

We keep converting the young people. Old people eventually die. Revolutions take time. After Iowa, I now care more about the results from the high school and junior high mock polls than Diebold's crummy numbers. Forget them. We're winning. They're toast. Their manipulated game they call an "election" stinks to high heaven.

 

[Paul4Prez]

Romney will do better this year than in 2008, because there's weaker competition. Santorum will flop in New Hampshire.

Don't sweat the percentages. Second place will make even more Americans realize that Ron Paul is a serious candidate, and that the media have been lying to them all along.

 

[Xenophage]

My Prediction:

Romney 33%
Santorum 19%
Paul 17%
Gingrich 15%
Huntsman 14%
Perry 2%


I really think Romney definitely has a ceiling there, just like in every other state. I think the McCain Independent voters will split between Gingrich, Paul, and Huntsman rather evenly. I think Santorum will come in second just because of the bump he's getting from Iowa. It'll be real close between Santorum, Paul, Gingrich, and Huntsman, but I doubt any of them will receive 20% or more.. sorry guys

I think you are presenting the most realistic expectations for NH. It sucks to be objective, sometimes.

 

[Xenophage]

I'm a new member here, but I have to say I am frankly discouraged by the pessimism of some supporters of Dr. Paul. Look, I'm not going to try and tell anyone that we are going to win 75% of the vote, everyone's going to drop out, and Dr. Paul will have the nomination wrapped up by next Friday. By the same token, though, he finished very strongly in Iowa (yes I know, it disappointed some people who thought he was going to win in a landslide), but if you don't think we have ANY shot of a first or strong second, then what is the point of all this? If he can't do well in NH, he can't win or do well anywhere IMHO. Its way too early to run up the white flag and give up.

I firmly believe everything hinges on Dr. Paul's debate performances. If he can get his message out effectively, he should pick up some steam. He's got to stay on message and drive home points that are palatable to the electorate. MANY people support the ideas Ron has, but he doesn't always articulate them in ways the average Joe "gets." He needs to take the fight to Romney in my opinion, he clearly has a ceiling and very soft support. The rest of the field are distractions, if Ron is in this to win it its between Paul and Romney, take the fight to him.

I briefly flirted with the idea that Ron might win the nomination, when I thought he might win Iowa. I've downgraded my expectations after having been so crushed on Tuesday, and now I'm back to this: Wanting him to simply do as well as he possibly can, whatever the cost. Even our small victories add up over time, and the net positives of Ron Paul's effect on American politics may very well be felt for decades.

 

[abstrusezincate]

I think many of you are too pessimistic. I find it very difficult to believe Paul will perform more poorly in New Hampshire than he did in Iowa, which is what some are predicting. I also find it even more difficult to believe Santorum will do very well in New Hampshire given his social views.

I could see Huntsman or Gingrich doing better than expected, but not Rick.

Ron should be able to score 25% in New Hampshire, doing especially well in the northern areas, and where there are schools. Kids should be back by now, and that was a factor that hurt us in Iowa but will help here. A caucus is a pain, a primary is easy.

The current polling has us at 24%, and I imagine the floor is around 20% notwithstanding some nightmare. So, I really believe Paul scores between 25-30% in any scenario. That's not the question to watch though.

The question to watch is how bad Romney gets hit. He will come down from the 40% he's been hovering at, but I just don't know how far and who will benefit.

I'm not saying the nomination will be won, but there's no reason to be dour. Most people watch politics much more casually than we do, and what felt like a loss to us in Iowa looked like a surprisingly strong showing to the late tuning undecided set.