Zogby poll from May 15-16, 2007 (RP 3% +- 4.5%)

[Harald]

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1302

Pessimistic view: Ron Paul is in the 4th place with 3% which is unfortunately less then +-4.5% margin of error.

Optimistic view: 3% + 11% (undecided) + 4.5% (margin of error) = 18.5% which is just a tad less then 19%

Numbers:

Romney 35%
McCain 19%
Giuliani 19%
Paul 3%
Hagel 1%
Huckabee <1%
Hunter <1%
Brownback 1%
Tancredo 1%
Tommy Thompson 1%

Undeclared:

Fred Thompson 6%
Not sure 11%

 

[Delivered4000]

Cliffs on their methodology?

 

[Gabecpa]

He and Romney are the only two candidates to see their support rise with each poll....

 

[Hawaii Libertarian]

The Glass is Half Full

If anything, after Tuesday night, the neocon and mainstream GOP pundits would have us think Dr. Paul's poll numbers would crumble to the very bottom of the pile, so although his latest result is within the margin of error, he did place fourth and shows that at least his name recognition seems to be improving, up until now thanks to the efforts of us grassroots supporters.

If we see more polls come out with Dr. Paul in the top four or five, especially if he can climb above the margin of error, it will be irrefutable evidence that the smear campaign against Dr. Paul is backfiring and make it harder to justify excluding him from debates.

 

[llamabread]

There is a constant increase in his polling, so it seems that the grassroots efforts are working, now we just need to kick it up a notch. And remember, these are quote "Likely Republican Primary Voters".

 

[Hawaii Libertarian]

Polling Methodology

Cliffs on their methodology?

Good question, did the poll people at large or measure people who actually watched the debate or knew the names of each candidate?

I just noticed the Faux News/Opinion Dynamics poll still shows Dr. Paul and the other "second tier" candidates at 1%, but Giuliani, their hero, still leads in their poll.

Even the pollsters concede that polls this early before an election are of limited value.

 

[cujothekitten]

I'd also like to point out that usually these polls only call people with landlines. I personally haven't had a landline for 5 years. I feel many 20-somethings don't as well. That may also be a contributing factor. It’s great that his numbers are growing though.

 

[axiomata]

I'll gladly take +2% every week.

 

[Brandybuck]

He got above 1%, so PajamasMedia has to restate him in their straw poll.

p.s. Ron Paul beat Duncan Hunter, which means there still is some justice left in the world!

 

[Rufus]

He got above 1%, so PajamasMedia has to restate him in their straw poll.

p.s. Ron Paul beat Duncan Hunter, which means there still is some justice left in the world!

PajamasMedia will likely change their rules to a minimum threshold of whatever Paul polls at +1%. If they put him back on of course Paul will win again and they'll just say their poll is rigged like they've done in the past. Does anyone know if there is third party oversight on any of these polls? They're not being honest about the coverage so why don't they just lie about the results?

 

[tnvoter]

I'd also like to point out that usually these polls only call people with landlines. I personally haven't had a landline for 5 years. I feel many 20-somethings don't as well. That may also be a contributing factor. It’s great that his numbers are growing though.

Same here, no one in my immediate family has a land-line anymore. We're all voting Ron Paul too.

 

[ronpaulitician]

3% is great!

In my view, libertarian candidates are automatically behind a couple of points in these kind of polls, because libertarian voters will be less likely to give out all the information needed to be a participant in these polls.

I, myself, finally decided to sign up for Zogy. But, I do so detest giving out my phone number to anyone.

 

[garywatson]

Let me tell you something about polls...

I'm an engineer, and I gotta tell you that whomever among you think that opinion polls have scientific accuracy, please explain this to me:

Fox News: Giuliani: 24% McCain: 17%
Cook R/T : Giuliani: 26% McCain: 24%
Gallup : Giuliani: 29% McCain: 23%
Am Res G: Giuliani: 28% McCain: 24%
Rasmussn: Giuliani: 25% McCain: 18%
CNN/OR : Giuliani: 25% McCain: 24%
USA Tody: Giuliani: 24% McCain: 17%

So in a quick sampling of available polls taken at approximately the same time, McCain trails Guiliani, counting the supposed +/-3% accuracy, by as much as 13%, or leads by as much as 5%. What utter rubbish. Is this supposed to be meaningful to somebody??

You can see by the wild fluctuations in these numbers that about all you can tell is that Guiliani is probably ahead of McCain by some unknown amount. 30-odd weeks from the primary and 500+ days to the general election, does this really mean anything?

You can also look at the early polling history which discounted both Carter and Clinton. We might as well roll dice or read tea leaves to figure out who is ahead of whom.

 

[burnice]

I'm encouraged because in those polls listed in garywatson's post above, Ron wasn't even getting one percent in some of them. One percent was the highest I saw - and I think most of them were taken directly following the first debate.

So 3% is good news to me! What pisses me off is that clown Fred Thompson is consistently getting 6% or better and he's not even declared. Why is he even on those polls??

 

[CurtisLow]

Another Poll

http://www.presidentpolls2008.com/

Go vote!