New CNN/ORC Poll: As campaigns launch, poll finds GOP field stays tight

[RonPaulFanInGA]

So far Rand is the only candidate that hasn't received a bump after announcing. wtf.

You're complaining about not having a temporary bump that would dissipate within a month?

Cruz is already back in his typical single digits.

Can Ted Cruz Make Rand Paul Obsolete?
h XXps://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-04-20/can-ted-cruz-make-rand-paul-obsolete-

Click-bait headline; no substance in the article.

 

[adelina]

Well, Rubio's 4% bump is still within the margin of error. This despite being dubbed the next JFK by establishment media.

 

[Libertea Party]

I think this is a poll of adults, not likely voters.

I do find it ridiculous that 18% consider Jeb to be the future of the party. Jeb Bush?!

It's true that things will really start to change in the fall when the debates are underway.

Thanks for pointing this out. "National Adult" survey respondents are the least small government in polls and may not even be eligible to vote. Here's a great run down by Gallup:

When we interview a typical Gallup Poll random sample, we are estimating the responses of all adults 18 years of age and older. We call these national adults. In our recent poll conducted the weekend of Sept. 5-7, for example, John McCain led Barack Obama among these national adults by a 48% to 46% margin.

But we almost never report this figure. It's unrealistic to do so because we know that a percentage of these national adults not only won't vote, but can't vote -- because they are not U.S. citizens or are not registered to vote in their local areas.


Registered Voters aren't that much better:

Here's an example. Gallup's final poll before the 2004 election showed the following:

Registered voters
George W. Bush 46%
John Kerry 48%

Likely voters
George W. Bush 49%
John Kerry 47%

Even if they got accurate national numbers on actual likely voters we're still most interested in talking about the most active of active voters: Republican Presidential caucus and primary voters i.e. Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Those will be the ones that I'll pay attention to the most.

National Adult surveys are worthless. Registered voters surveys and then likely voter survey are a little better. But once news gets out of the winner of the Iowa Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire Primary... that's what has the biggest influence.

 

[whoisjohngalt]

Republican Presidential caucus and primary voters i.e. Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Those will be the ones that I'll pay attention to the most

Apologies in advance for being pedantic, but I think you meant to use e.g.

I used to get this wrong too thinking the two were interchangeable. Think of i.e. as "in other words"; it's used when you are going to define or use another term for a word.

Example: Watch out for those Paulbots i.e. supporters of Dr. Ron Paul.

Think of e.g. as "for example" when you are going to list some of many examples.

Example: Ron Paul supporters e.g. libertarians, paleo-conservatives, anti war democrats

Again, sorry to be a pedantic grammar nazi but thought you might want to know. I know I did.

 

[65fastback2+2]

you dont want ANY bumps in polling anyhow...bumps just show voters clicking for your name are not actually set on voting for you which means they'll be swayed to someone else at some point.

You want a good steady polling with a slight tick upwards. just slowly but surely.

 

[Libertea Party]

Apologies in advance for being pedantic, but I think you meant to use e.g.

I used to get this wrong too thinking the two were interchangeable. Think of i.e. as "in other words"; it's used when you are going to define or use another term for a word.

Example: Watch out for those Paulbots i.e. supporters of Dr. Ron Paul.

Think of e.g. as "for example" when you are going to list some of many examples.

Example: Ron Paul supporters e.g. libertarians, paleo-conservatives, anti war democrats

Again, sorry to be a pedantic grammar nazi but thought you might want to know. I know I did.

I'll keep that in mind thanks.

 

[jbauer]

I call bullshit on bush. Even the hard team reds I know say no more bushs. Let alone 17%

 

[hells_unicorn]

Speaking from my own experience with my family and friends, NOBODY is enthusiastic about the idea of another Bush running. Even my father, who was swallowed up by all that "compassionate conservative" nonsense that Dubya babbled about is looking for somebody with at least a different last name.

 

[GunnyFreedom]

Looks like Cruz's bounce is gone. I still can't believe that Jeb Bush is getting so much support.

This.

You know that little thing in your brain called 'inhibition,' that keeps you from just punching wretched people? Yeah, well, that little part of my brain overheats terribly when I encounter people who actually want Jeb Bush.

 

[GunnyFreedom]

I call bullshit on bush. Even the hard team reds I know say no more bushs. Let alone 17%

The number is way higher than it should be, yes, but "likely GOP Primary voters" is a very, very small and unrepresentative portion of the population. Go get a list of GOP Primary supervoters and survey them and I guarantee you will get at least 10% who are either enthusiastic or already resigned to Bush. You don't have to protest to me how absurd this is, I know. It's like the elephant is deliberately trying to commit suicide.

 

[SilentBull]

You're complaining about not having a temporary bump that would dissipate within a month? Cruz is already back in his typical single digits.

Good point. It is also important to note that Jeb and Walker have not been vetted the way Rand has, so for him to be 6 points from first nationally right now, is pretty impressive.

It's still a little surprising that he didn't get any bump at all. My guess is that those attack ads worked only for those who would have supported him temporarily anyway, until the next candidate announces.

 

[Foreigner]

Good point. It is also important to note that Jeb and Walker have not been vetted the way Rand has, so for him to be 6 points from first nationally right now, is pretty impressive.

It's still a little surprising that he didn't get any bump at all. My guess is that those attack ads worked only for those who would have supported him temporarily anyway, until the next candidate announces.

He probably got an bump, but Rubio's entering the race before this poll was taken would have dented it I think.

 

[Cleaner44]

It will be interesting to see if "long shot" candidates like Perry and Santorum get shut out of the debates.

 

[rich34]

Everyone does remember how easy it was for them to prevent Ron from going up in the polls right? Hell whether it be by leaving him out of the poll for a certain percentage of calls, or people actually selecting him and it not acknowledging their vote based on the damn recording continuing to speak. This has all been documented and is on youtube so there is no conspiracy. They're going to pull out whatever trix they have left.

 

[Uriah]

I wish it was August. I'm looking forward to the Iowa straw poll.