I would be panicking if Ron doesn't raise at least 7 million this quarter...to me it looks like his fundraising is drying up. That is a more serious problem than the national poll results because if Ron's strategy is to win in the early states, the national polls and the media coverage are not that important right now. In other words, if Ron's plan is to get a bump out of IA and/or NH, then the money is more important to achieve that goal than the media coverage is to the campaign...just like what happened in the AMES straw poll. Ron did well because of money to build organization there not because of favorable media coverage. so, he is going to need more money to hit those states hard...particularly if the primaries are moved up because of FL.
I wonder how much campaign cash is going to be left at the end of q3? Is he going to be replenished with another 4.5ish or did the campaign spend all the cash on-hand from q2 and then more than 50% of the funds he raised since the beginning of q3 leaving the campaign with roughly less than 2 million left? If so, I would be panicking because that is a situation similiar to where cain, bachmann, and Gingrich are...and since the media is bumping them, they have an advantage we can't compete with unless the next MB is a 4 million plus type situation (which I have my doubts about).
Anyway, I personally don't think that Ron winning IA or NH is going to bump him up enough to win the nomination, maybe to win a few small caucas states in the midwest/northwest where he came in second last time around...the establishment doesn't want him and the media has built enough of a stigma around Paul that many uninvolved gop voters are unwilling to support him. Ron really hasn't helped himself in the debates or otherwise...besides the ads, the campaign is still very much an educational one in style. Therefore, his support is limited and will hit a ceiling no matter how many early states he wins..FL is the GOPs backstop, whoever wins FL will be the nominee anyway...this time around, IA, NH, SC don't matter much...I bet there will be a different candidate for each state...then whoever wins FL runs the rest of the states on Super Tuesday.
