rp08orbust
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- Joined
- Dec 20, 2007
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How important is this straw poll?
It is extremely important. It is second in importance only to the Ames, Iowa straw poll on August 13, and it is the most important political event from that date until the Iowa caucuses currently scheduled for February 6, 2012. It is more important than any debates and moneybombs during the entire period. Like the Ames straw poll, it is a unique opportunity for an underdog in the Republican nominating race to prove his or her electability. Some would even argue that it is more important than the Ames straw poll due to its superior record of predicting future success. While an Ames straw poll victory will likely draw more media attention, a Presidency 5 straw poll victory will likely attract more big donors to the winner's campaign.
If you're not convinced, consider the following:
How urgent is this?
It is more urgent than the Ames straw poll. While the Presidency 5 straw poll is not until September 22-24, Ron Paul will win or lose this straw poll based on our action between now and June 10. Unlike all other straw polls you may have participated in, voting is not open to anyone who pays and attends the straw poll, but to 3,500 "delegates" who win spots by lottery at Florida county GOP caucuses throughout the summer. To be eligible to enter your name in these lotteries, you must have registered online at h ttp://www.presidency5.com by June 10. The registration fee is not due unless you win a delegate (or alternate delegate) spot. (I have broken links to the official Presidency 5 website to help prevent the RPOF from detecting our interest at RonPaulForums via referring URLs.)
Can Ron Paul really win this?
While Florida is tougher for Ron Paul than some of the other early states, I suspect that he can win this straw poll and that a victory would greatly improve his standing in Florida.
While the Republican Party of Florida has been tight-lipped about how online registrations are going, we can speculate that the late start to the presidential campaign means that interest in registering has been weaker than usual. The RPOF's press release dated May 16 boasts only that "hundreds" have registered to become delegates. According to St. Petersberg Times,
Less attention by other campaigns means lower attendance at the county caucuses, which means those who do attend have a greater chance of winning delegate spots to the straw poll by lottery. We hyper-focused Ron Paul supporters have an opportunity to stack the deck in Ron's favor when no one is watching.
What are the rules of the straw poll?
The complete list of rules can be found at h ttp://www.presidency5.com/about/rules and a FAQ can be found at h ttp://www.presidency5.com/faq , but some important facts are the following:
Winning Phase 1: Online Registration by June 10
The first phase is very simple: Get as many registered Republicans in Florida who support Ron Paul to register online at h ttp://www.presidency5.com as possible. If you or anyone you know is a Ron Paul supporter who has been registered as a Republican in Florida since before February 1, 2011, then there is absolutely no excuse not to register online for the Presidency 5 straw poll by June 10. Online registration commits you to nothing. Whatever obstacle you think you may have that prevents you from attending your caucus or the straw poll, such as no money, no time, no transportation, no lodging etc, do not prevent you from simply filling out the online form, because the obstacles may disappear later, but the chance to register will not return after June 10.
Here are some ways that anyone, regardless of where they live, can help in this phase:
Robocalling
If we're serious about winning this straw poll, then the above tactics will probably not be enough. I propose that we also attempt to robocall as many Florida Republicans as possible, poll for which Republican presidential candidates they support, and encourage the Ron Paul supporters to register online for the straw poll. This is a daunting task for political novices such as myself, so I suggest we try to recruit some trusted political experts for this. Ideally, however, we'd like to persuade the Ron Paul presidential campaign or one the Ron Paul-inspired organizations (C4L, YAL etc) to take on this job.
ronpaulhawaii has told me that he can have robocalls made at the rate of about $400 per 10,000 calls. There are four million registered Republicans in Florida, so robocalling them all would cost at least $160,000.00. We're not going to raise enough money to make a significant dent in the Florida Republican population with a Chip In, but we can certainly get started that way. After seeing what happens with the first 10,000 calls, we can discuss better ways of raising money.
One area where we could use expert advice is on the robocall message. My first thought is to simply ask the person on the phone, "If you were to donate to a Republican presidential candidate in the Florida primary, who would you donate most to?", followed by a list of the Republican presidential candidates. If they answer anything other than Ron Paul, then end the call. (I say "donate to" instead of "vote for", because those who wouldn't donate to Ron Paul are very unlikely to attend their county caucus and the straw poll itself for him.) Otherwise, if they're a Ron Paul supporter, provide them with a brief message about Presidency 5 and urge them to visit our website (let's call it p5forpaul.com for now).
This website would have two critical functions:
1) By collecting email addresses and county of registration, it would allow us to keep Ron Paul supporters informed about the process specific to their county (e.g., where and when their county caucus is, other important dates and fees, transportation info, etc). Presidency 5 is quite complicated for a straw poll, so making it as easy as possible for Ron Paul supporters is critical.
2) The website would allow us to measure the success of the robocalling. To help raise the money necessary to keep the robocalls going until June 10, we will need to be able to report how many Ron Paul supporters are registering per $400 batch of 10,000 calls.
I believe the robocalls should be apportioned among counties according to Republican party membership, the same way delegates are apportioned. You could make the case that it's better to focus on counties near Orlando because people from those counties are more likely to be willing to attend the straw poll, but at the same time, you could argue that it's better to focus on counties far from Orlando because their caucuses will be poorly attended due to the distance from Orlando, meaning Ron Paul's supporters have better chances at winning delegate spots. Thus, I think distance from Orlando is neutralized as a factor in determining where best to focus the robocalls. Instead, factors like university populations might need to be considered.
See http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?294744-Robocalling-Discussion for discussion on robocalling.
Winning Phase 2: Getting Registered Ron Paul Supporters to their County Caucuses
To be continued...
Winning Phase 3: Getting Ron Paul Delegates to the Straw Poll
To be continued...
Status Update 5/23/2011
The following is a list of what has been done so far in this effort to win the Presidency 5 straw poll for Ron Paul, especially in the area of robocalling and phonebanking:
5/21/11: ronpaulhawaii says in PM that he can do robocalls for $400 per 10,000 calls. rp08orbust is waiting for him to get back with some questions, like whether we are charged for unanswered calls, and what percentage of them typically get answered.
5/21/11: RachelFaith says in PM that Craig Bergman's company does robocalling and that she will send him links to threads on Presidency 5.
5/22/11: shemdogg used malkusm's freedomatlas.org to alert Florida liberty groups about the June 10 deadline for Presidency 5: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?290042-Presidency-5&p=3292361&viewfull=1#post3292361
5/22/11: Patrick O'Sullivan from YAL at Florida State University has offered to stop by the Florida Division of Elections tomorrow and purchase the Florida voter database CD for $10.
5/23/11: Bryan created the "Presidency 5 Straw Poll" sub-forum--thanks Bryan!
5/23/11: tsai3904 began researching Florida county caucus details.
5/23/11: teacherone began work on the web page to be given to Ron Paul supporters identified through robocalling.
5/23/11: po14015 updated ronpaulflorida.com
To-Do List
Please volunteer for any of the below and report back in this thread on your success.
It is extremely important. It is second in importance only to the Ames, Iowa straw poll on August 13, and it is the most important political event from that date until the Iowa caucuses currently scheduled for February 6, 2012. It is more important than any debates and moneybombs during the entire period. Like the Ames straw poll, it is a unique opportunity for an underdog in the Republican nominating race to prove his or her electability. Some would even argue that it is more important than the Ames straw poll due to its superior record of predicting future success. While an Ames straw poll victory will likely draw more media attention, a Presidency 5 straw poll victory will likely attract more big donors to the winner's campaign.
If you're not convinced, consider the following:
- TampaBay.com calls Presidency 5 "by far Florida's biggest political event in 2011": http://www.tampabay.com/news/politi...cy-5-stirs-up-excitement-8212-sort-of/1169709
- The same article states that Bob Dole spent a million dollars winning the Presidency 3 straw poll in 1995. That is the equivalent of spending at least two million dollars on winning the straw poll today.
- The three previous Florida GOP straw polls (Presidency 1, Presidency 2 and Presidency 3; Presidency 4's straw poll was cancelled) have accurately predicted both the winner of Florida's Republican presidential primary and of the Republican presidential nomination.
- This year's straw poll is part of a three-day "extravaganza" that includes a presidential candidate's debate co-hosted by the Fox News Channel, which is likely to talk about little else for weeks afterward. See http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nake...tial-straw-poll-debate-in-september-2011.html
- Teh Collins, whose pronouncements tend to be useful as contrarian indicators, has declared Presidency 5 to be "a scam" :collins:: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?290042-Presidency-5&p=3245937&viewfull=1#post3245937
How urgent is this?
It is more urgent than the Ames straw poll. While the Presidency 5 straw poll is not until September 22-24, Ron Paul will win or lose this straw poll based on our action between now and June 10. Unlike all other straw polls you may have participated in, voting is not open to anyone who pays and attends the straw poll, but to 3,500 "delegates" who win spots by lottery at Florida county GOP caucuses throughout the summer. To be eligible to enter your name in these lotteries, you must have registered online at h ttp://www.presidency5.com by June 10. The registration fee is not due unless you win a delegate (or alternate delegate) spot. (I have broken links to the official Presidency 5 website to help prevent the RPOF from detecting our interest at RonPaulForums via referring URLs.)
Can Ron Paul really win this?
While Florida is tougher for Ron Paul than some of the other early states, I suspect that he can win this straw poll and that a victory would greatly improve his standing in Florida.
While the Republican Party of Florida has been tight-lipped about how online registrations are going, we can speculate that the late start to the presidential campaign means that interest in registering has been weaker than usual. The RPOF's press release dated May 16 boasts only that "hundreds" have registered to become delegates. According to St. Petersberg Times,
Given the wide-open nature of this Republican nomination and the fact that the deadline for delegates to register is less than a month away, you might imagine the campaigns are scrambling to organize a strong straw poll showing. Actually they're not.
The 2012 election cycle is off to such a meandering start that there's almost no sign of courting or mobilizing grass roots Republicans for the straw poll. By this point in 2007, Mitt Romney had already starting building a formidable organization in Florida, but this year he seems intent on saving his money for as long as possible. http://www.tampabay.com/news/politi...cy-5-stirs-up-excitement-8212-sort-of/1169709
The 2012 election cycle is off to such a meandering start that there's almost no sign of courting or mobilizing grass roots Republicans for the straw poll. By this point in 2007, Mitt Romney had already starting building a formidable organization in Florida, but this year he seems intent on saving his money for as long as possible. http://www.tampabay.com/news/politi...cy-5-stirs-up-excitement-8212-sort-of/1169709
Less attention by other campaigns means lower attendance at the county caucuses, which means those who do attend have a greater chance of winning delegate spots to the straw poll by lottery. We hyper-focused Ron Paul supporters have an opportunity to stack the deck in Ron's favor when no one is watching.
What are the rules of the straw poll?
The complete list of rules can be found at h ttp://www.presidency5.com/about/rules and a FAQ can be found at h ttp://www.presidency5.com/faq , but some important facts are the following:
- Registering online by the June 10 deadline does not commit you to anything, but it is necessary for you to be eligible to win a delegate spot at your county caucus later in the summer (caucus dates vary by county between June 15 and August 1; go to ronpaulflorida.com for details).
- To register you must have been already registered as a Republican in Florida before February 1, 2011.
- You can only win a delegate spot at the caucus for the county in which you are registered as a Republican.
- Registration payment is due immediately upon winning a delegate spot ($175 for delegates, $125 for alternate delegates). Assume the payments must be in cash unless we find out otherwise.
- Delegates are apportioned to counties by the size of county Republican parties. 75% of delegates from each county are selected by lottery, while the remaining 25% are appointed by committees within the county parties.
- The straw poll is in Orlando on September 24.
Winning Phase 1: Online Registration by June 10
The first phase is very simple: Get as many registered Republicans in Florida who support Ron Paul to register online at h ttp://www.presidency5.com as possible. If you or anyone you know is a Ron Paul supporter who has been registered as a Republican in Florida since before February 1, 2011, then there is absolutely no excuse not to register online for the Presidency 5 straw poll by June 10. Online registration commits you to nothing. Whatever obstacle you think you may have that prevents you from attending your caucus or the straw poll, such as no money, no time, no transportation, no lodging etc, do not prevent you from simply filling out the online form, because the obstacles may disappear later, but the chance to register will not return after June 10.
Here are some ways that anyone, regardless of where they live, can help in this phase:
- Directly spread the word on Facebook to Ron Paul supporters (try to avoid spreading the word about the straw poll to supporters of other candidates).
- Buy Facebook ads targeted at Ron Paul supporters, as described by IDefendThePlatform in http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?290042-Presidency-5&p=3292342&viewfull=1#post3292342
- Contact members of the Ron Paul presidential campaign and express your desire for them to make a serious attempt at winning this straw poll. Let them know about the robocalling plans being discussed in this thread, because like the busing plans for the Ames straw poll, this might cause them to sit up and take this seriously (and maybe even prompt Ron Paul to open a Florida campaign office earlier than otherwise).
- Contact Florida Meet Up, Campaign for Liberty and Young Americans for Liberty leaders and urge them to promote participation in the Presidency 5 straw poll. There are roughly 15,000 Campaign for Liberty members in Florida, and I don't see any legal reason why C4L cannot promote participation in county GOPs by encouraging members to register for the straw poll.
- Contact anyone you know within the Florida state GOP and try to get an idea of how overall registration for Presidency 5 is going, especially in specific counties, if possible. Knowing what our competitors are doing will help us gauge how winnable this straw poll is and where we should focus our efforts.
- Subscribe to this thread, post any suggestions you have and volunteer for any tasks that come up.
Robocalling
If we're serious about winning this straw poll, then the above tactics will probably not be enough. I propose that we also attempt to robocall as many Florida Republicans as possible, poll for which Republican presidential candidates they support, and encourage the Ron Paul supporters to register online for the straw poll. This is a daunting task for political novices such as myself, so I suggest we try to recruit some trusted political experts for this. Ideally, however, we'd like to persuade the Ron Paul presidential campaign or one the Ron Paul-inspired organizations (C4L, YAL etc) to take on this job.
ronpaulhawaii has told me that he can have robocalls made at the rate of about $400 per 10,000 calls. There are four million registered Republicans in Florida, so robocalling them all would cost at least $160,000.00. We're not going to raise enough money to make a significant dent in the Florida Republican population with a Chip In, but we can certainly get started that way. After seeing what happens with the first 10,000 calls, we can discuss better ways of raising money.
One area where we could use expert advice is on the robocall message. My first thought is to simply ask the person on the phone, "If you were to donate to a Republican presidential candidate in the Florida primary, who would you donate most to?", followed by a list of the Republican presidential candidates. If they answer anything other than Ron Paul, then end the call. (I say "donate to" instead of "vote for", because those who wouldn't donate to Ron Paul are very unlikely to attend their county caucus and the straw poll itself for him.) Otherwise, if they're a Ron Paul supporter, provide them with a brief message about Presidency 5 and urge them to visit our website (let's call it p5forpaul.com for now).
This website would have two critical functions:
1) By collecting email addresses and county of registration, it would allow us to keep Ron Paul supporters informed about the process specific to their county (e.g., where and when their county caucus is, other important dates and fees, transportation info, etc). Presidency 5 is quite complicated for a straw poll, so making it as easy as possible for Ron Paul supporters is critical.
2) The website would allow us to measure the success of the robocalling. To help raise the money necessary to keep the robocalls going until June 10, we will need to be able to report how many Ron Paul supporters are registering per $400 batch of 10,000 calls.
I believe the robocalls should be apportioned among counties according to Republican party membership, the same way delegates are apportioned. You could make the case that it's better to focus on counties near Orlando because people from those counties are more likely to be willing to attend the straw poll, but at the same time, you could argue that it's better to focus on counties far from Orlando because their caucuses will be poorly attended due to the distance from Orlando, meaning Ron Paul's supporters have better chances at winning delegate spots. Thus, I think distance from Orlando is neutralized as a factor in determining where best to focus the robocalls. Instead, factors like university populations might need to be considered.
See http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?294744-Robocalling-Discussion for discussion on robocalling.
Winning Phase 2: Getting Registered Ron Paul Supporters to their County Caucuses
To be continued...
Winning Phase 3: Getting Ron Paul Delegates to the Straw Poll
To be continued...
Status Update 5/23/2011
The following is a list of what has been done so far in this effort to win the Presidency 5 straw poll for Ron Paul, especially in the area of robocalling and phonebanking:
5/21/11: ronpaulhawaii says in PM that he can do robocalls for $400 per 10,000 calls. rp08orbust is waiting for him to get back with some questions, like whether we are charged for unanswered calls, and what percentage of them typically get answered.
5/21/11: RachelFaith says in PM that Craig Bergman's company does robocalling and that she will send him links to threads on Presidency 5.
5/22/11: shemdogg used malkusm's freedomatlas.org to alert Florida liberty groups about the June 10 deadline for Presidency 5: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?290042-Presidency-5&p=3292361&viewfull=1#post3292361
5/22/11: Patrick O'Sullivan from YAL at Florida State University has offered to stop by the Florida Division of Elections tomorrow and purchase the Florida voter database CD for $10.
5/23/11: Bryan created the "Presidency 5 Straw Poll" sub-forum--thanks Bryan!
5/23/11: tsai3904 began researching Florida county caucus details.
5/23/11: teacherone began work on the web page to be given to Ron Paul supporters identified through robocalling.
5/23/11: po14015 updated ronpaulflorida.com
To-Do List
Please volunteer for any of the below and report back in this thread on your success.
- Continue researching county caucus details as described in http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showth...5-Straw-Poll&p=3294437&viewfull=1#post3294437
- Begin discussion of robocalling message.
- Find Ron Paul supporters with experience at robocalling.
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