Will Russia invade Ukraine?

[gwax23]

If war does break out it might be more conventional than Syria due to the linguistic/religious borders in Ukraine being much more clearly defined than in Syria (see the map provided by hollywood for reference) Which is why conflict should be avoided at all costs.

With that said as Liberty minded people we should not attempt to support either side in this conflict. Both have legitimate grievances and both have their flaws. Both are being supported to some extent by a foreign power seeking to expand its influence in the ukraine. This conflict like most others boils down to economics and the control of the pipelines.

We should favor peaceful resolution to the conflict and a independent Ukraine free from Eastern or Western control. If Ukraine cannot remained a united country than a peaceful separation akin to the former Czechoslovakia should be favored.

 

[eduardo89]

If war does break out it might be more conventional than Syria due to the linguistic/religious borders in Ukraine being much more clearly defined than in Syria (see the map provided by hollywood for reference) Which is why conflict should be avoided at all costs.

That aren't religious borders in Ukraine, though. The majority of the population is non-practising but claims to belong to a religious group.

The largest religious group, by far, are Orthodox Christians. They are, however, divided into three main Churches:
Ukrainian Orthodox Church - Kyiv Patriarchate
Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchate)
Ukrainian Autocephalous Orthodox Church

There's also the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church, but it's a small minority which belongs to that Church (around 5-7% of the population).

In a recent poll almost a quarter of Ukrainians said they do not believe in God at all.


With regards to language, that's where one sees a big distinction between the west and east of the country:

Still, virtually every single Ukrainian speaks Russian and in Kiev you basically only hear Russian spoken.

 

[compromise]

Which parts have the lowest cost of living... the most freedom and lowest taxes?

EU socialist tax system has been a marvel for high unemployment and control over the people.

I wonder where Nigel Farage stands, considering he knows how destructive Dragi's EU has become.

Overall, I'd say a tie. Russia has far worse protection of property rights and higher tariffs but the EU has much higher taxation and government spending.

Because they're totally innocent and haven't been shooting at government supporters...

To be fair, instances like this are why we support the 2nd amendment.

 

[gwax23]

That aren't religious borders in Ukraine, though. The majority of the population is non-practising but claims to belong to a religious group.

The largest religious group, by far, are Orthodox Christians. They are, however, divided into three main Churches:
Ukrainian Orthodox Church - Kyiv Patriarchate
Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchate)
Ukrainian Autocephalous Orthodox Church

There's also the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church, but it's a small minority which belongs to that Church (around 5-7% of the population).

In a recent poll almost a quarter of Ukrainians said they do not believe in God at all.


With regards to language, that's where one sees a big distinction between the west and east of the country:

Still, virtually every single Ukrainian speaks Russian and in Kiev you basically only hear Russian spoken.

I see. Informative post. It was my understanding that Catholicism was the second largest religion in the country, particularly in the western Ukranian speaking portions (closer to poland) while the eastern more Russian areas are Orthodox. The large non religious is a result of years of Soviet rule.

 

[eduardo89]

To be fair, instances like this are why we support the 2nd amendment.

The Second Amendment exists to prevent (or overthrow) a tyrannical government. Not wanting to become an EU puppet hardly qualifies as tyrannical actions.

 

[compromise]

The Second Amendment exists to prevent (or overthrow) a tyrannical government. Not wanting to become an EU puppet hardly qualifies as tyrannical actions.

Resistance against becoming a Russian puppet hardly qualifies as wanting to become an EU puppet.

 

[eduardo89]

Resistance against becoming a Russian puppet hardly qualifies as wanting to become an EU puppet.

Ukraine is a historical mistake that should never exist as an independent country. It should be part of Russia as it always has been. Same with Belarus.

 

[politics]

No they won't, and start an open conflict against the EU, and NATO, why??

Thats not what they would do at all.

But at the end of the day Ukraine will remain out of the EU, I guess Russia will acknowledge some requests from the west, but Ukraine will remain out of EU.

Also the only wining with this conflict (in geopolitical terms) are the US and EU, trying to set up a political elite pro west.

But, in the other hand "the west" won't support a too independent too much sovereign goverment either, because being too free, too self determined is not something they would aprove either.

 

[69360]

Meanwhile in the Russian high schools:

They should teach that in US high schools.

 

[juleswin]

Resistance against becoming a Russian puppet hardly qualifies as wanting to become an EU puppet.

If anyone is going to become anyone's puppet it will be becoming more of an EU puppet. These central planners over at Brussels have way more conditions with their aid, its not just you pay back and make some financial reforms but they also require political, educational and social reforms and for all of you guys who are against abortions and gay marriage, this translates to more state acceptance of gay marriage and abortion.

The only threat coming from Russia is that they will start treating Ukrainian good like any other good from the rest of Europe and withdrawal of economic aid(which makes perfect sense). This is unlike the EU who have already started threatening them with sanctions, asset seizures and other forms of penalties if they dont go their way. Ukraine is in a very bad position and sometimes when you find yourself in a bind, you have to do things you wouldn't ordinarily do to get out of it.

Also lets not forget that Russia called for a trilateral agreement between EU, Ukraine and Russia which the EU rejected. They wanted it their way and they got rejected. The sad truth is that the Russian deal was the best of the 2 offers on the table. But Ukraine can reject both sides and really go independent if they wanted to, the only active pressure is coming from one side and one side alone

 

[gwax23]

If one has to choose than the better choice would be Moscow. It snot perfect but its moving in the right direction. The real communism moved to the west and now the crypto marxists occupy the highest positions of government in the EU. Many of the pro EU protesters in Ukraine still connect (falsely) Russia to communism and the West to Capitalism while ironically these have switched in recent years.

With that said Ukraine was never really close or on the verge of joining the EU just moving closer to it. Likewise a Russian invasion would not involve NATO since Ukraine isnt a member.

 

[politics]

Becoming part of the EU is not just about free trade.

Many here are using the term puppet, I know it is not an elegant terminology but it makes the Idea of what countries may become once you are inside the EU.

I found this paper, made by the High Representative of The Union For Foreign
Affairs And Security Policy and the European Commission and it is really interesting.


A New Response to a Changing Neighbourhood
A review of European Neighbourhood Policy Brussels, 25 May 2011
Joint Communication by the High Representative of The Union For Foreign
Affairs And Security Policy and the European Commission

The main aim of the paper is to settle a new approach with the European Neighborhood,

The European Neighbourhood includes Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Egypt, Georgia, Israel, Jordan,
Lebanon, Libya,the Republic of Moldova, Morocco, the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Syria, Tunisia and
Ukraine.

The first chapter is called:

1. TO SUPPORT PROGRESS TOWARDS DEEP DEMOCRACY

You will find that by Deep Democracy the EU includes:

1.3.
Intensifying our political and security co-operation

We shall:
• enhance EU involvement in solving protr acted conflicts
• make joined-up use of the Common Foreign and Security Policy and other EU instruments
• promote joint action with European Neighbourhood Policy partners in international
fora on key security issues

The Lisbon Treaty provides the EU with a unique opportunity to become a more effective actor.
Nowhere is this more relevant than in our neighbourhood. But rising to the challenge requires that EU
and Member States policies be much more closely aligned than in the past, in order to deliver the
common message and the coherence that will make our actions effective. EU instruments and policies
will be effective only if properly backed by Member States policies. Business as usual is no longer an
option if we want to make our neighbourhood a safer place and protect our interests.

Where the EU is already engaged operationally on the ground, e.g. with the EU Monitoring Mission in
Georgia, the EU Border Assistance Mission in Republic of Moldova/Ukraine, or the EU Police Mission
and the EU Border Assistance Mission Rafah in the occupied Palestinian territories, further steps will
be taken to exploit the synergies between this operational presence and the efforts to promote reforms.
In particular, wherever it is appropriate, the EU will offer to back partner countries’ efforts to reform their
justice and security sector reforms with rule of law missions or other
Common Foreign andSecurity Policy (CFSP) instruments that they will consider useful.
Looking beyond conflict resolution, the EU will make full use of the Lisbon Treaty's provisions in
addressing other security concerns and specific common interests, e.g. energy and resource security,
climate change, non-proliferation, combating international terrorism and trans-border organised crime,
and the fight against drugs. It will engage with ENP partner countries to undertake joint actions in
international fora (e.g. UN, international conferences) on CFSP issues, as well as other global issues.

 

[compromise]

If one has to choose than the better choice would be Moscow. It snot perfect but its moving in the right direction. The real communism moved to the west and now the crypto marxists occupy the highest positions of government in the EU. Many of the pro EU protesters in Ukraine still connect (falsely) Russia to communism and the West to Capitalism while ironically these have switched in recent years.

With that said Ukraine was never really close or on the verge of joining the EU just moving closer to it. Likewise a Russian invasion would not involve NATO since Ukraine isnt a member.

I agree Russia is the lesser of two evils in this conflict, given the EU has so many communists in its Commission.

However, I definitely do not agree with those in this thread that are egging on the Ukrainian government. Imprisoning political opponents is always wrong.

 

[Smart3]

Those maps are just maps. Borders dramatically change all the time. In the case of Ukraine many are ethnically Russian.

(ethnic) Ukrainians are the majority (50%+) in all parts of the Ukraine except the autonomous Crimea. (which is slowly becoming plurality Tatar, though it's still a melting pot)

________

A key point here is that most of the Russian speakers are ethnically Ukrainian. This is similar to Belarus, where most of the population still can't speak their own language. They don't become Russian simply because they adopt Russian language and culture.

 

[Smart3]

Is it any surprise that both the President and Prime Minister are/were pro-Russia?

They are not of Ukrainian ancestry and their families are from Russia.

 

[juleswin]

Is it any surprise that both the President and Prime Minister are/were pro-Russia?

They are not of Ukrainian ancestry and their families are from Russia.

News from Sep 3 2013 all before the riots started

Yanukovych urges pro-Europe drive despite Kremlin pressure

Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich urged parliament on Tuesday to pass laws to underpin the country's pro-Europe drive, even as Russia renewed pressure on Kyiv to halt its westward course.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/pol...pe-drive-despite-kremlin-pressure-328965.html


From Oct 14, 2013

Ukraine: Yanukovych the European?

KYIV, Ukraine — His critics accuse him of jailing opponents, cracking down on press freedom and concentrating wealth and power in the hands of a few allies.

Meet Viktor Yanukovych, once the pro-Moscow loser of Ukraine’s democratic Orange Revolution, now the president who may secure Ukraine’s European future.

He has surprised observers in recent months by reaffirming his commitment to sign landmark agreements with the European Union next month that would pull his country further into Europe while fending off aggressive advances from Russia.

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/europe/131009/ukraine-yanukovych-european-union


From September 3 2013

Ukrainian President Yanukovych Urges Adoption Of Pro-EU Laws

Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych has encouraged lawmakers to move ahead with pro-EU reforms by preparing draft legislation to reform the judiciary and law-enforcement bodies and to fight corruption.

In a speech to parliament on September 3, Yanukovych said the documents are needed for Ukrainian "success at the Vilnius summit."

Ukraine is expected to sign an EU Association Agreement, which includes a free-trade deal, at an EU meeting in the Lithuanian capital in November.

The EU has set criteria for democratic progress that it says Kyiv must meet if the agreements are to be signed.

http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-yanukovych-urges-eu-laws/25094549.html

And how did I know this? I heard it from watching RT crosstalk, where one of the Ukrainian experts said that Yanukovych's party and most Ukrainian elite had been pushing for the country to join the European union so they could loot whats left of the country and buy a safe passage of their stolen loot to the rest of Europe. Yes, RT is a commie station but most times, they give you information that you wouldn't get from anywhere from US MSM.

 

[HOLLYWOOD]

Many players looking to hedge the spoils of big government.
http://voiceofrussia.com/2014_02_14...no-reason-to-stop-the-presidential-race-8838/

14 February, 15:44

[h=1]Yulia Tymoshenko: a prison term is no reason to stop the presidential race[/h]

Photo: EPA


[h=2]The former prime minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko has invited President Viktor Yanukovich to take part in the discussion “of the tactical and strategic steps to lead the country out of the crisis”. The head of the country has not responded to that invitation so far, but if he does agree, that could overshadow all the speeches of the Maidan leaders combined. Despite being behind bars, the most popular opposition leader’s ratings continue to climb. Actually, it is her imprisonment that is helping her to stay in the fight for power. And in the event of her liberation the political picture in Ukraine could change drastically.

[/h]
Former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko entered politics back in the 1990s after leaving the position as the head of the industrial and financial corporation United Energy Systems of Ukraine (UESU). Her political career started in the position as people's deputy, then she became the leader of the Yulia Tymoshenko Block and the party Batkivshchina (Fatherland) that was a part of the block. In October 2011 she was sentenced to seven years in prison for abuse of power during the signing of the gas supply contracts with Russia. But Tymoshenko is not planning to give up her position.
Currently she is not only an opposition leader, but also a symbol of political resistance. The prison term is the only thing that holds her back from taking part in the presidential elections. But if she finds herself out of prison she could easily win over most of the ratings of the current opposition leaders and come close to those of Yanukovich, or even surpass him. However, one must admit that even in prison the former prime minister continues to give instructions to the opposition. Recently, she addressed her party members demanding that they stop all negotiations with the authorities and give up the idea of going back to the 2004 Constitution, which deprives the head of state of a greater part of authority. Naturally, why would someone who is trying to become president give up unlimited power beforehand, says Alexander Gusev, director of the Institute for Strategic Planning.

“Naturally, she still has her presidential plans. And if she were set free and could take part in the elections, then if she won the elections she could become a full-power president and not a president with limited capabilities. That is why her release could mix up the cards for the opposition”.
And now the situation in her block is complicated. Yulia Tymoshenko is still limited in what she can do. Arseniy Yatsenyuk, the head of the Batkivshchina faction in the parliament, ignores her demands, specifically as far as the 2004 Constitution issue goes. But staying in prison Tymoshenko continues to use well-tested technologies and does not forget to remind people of her own existence by interfering in the political process. Below is the commentary of Sergey Chernyakhovsky, PhD in political science.
“It is merely a beautiful pose to call for a rebellion being in prison. It is especially beautiful as on the one hand, since you are calling for a fight being in prison, she has not surrendered, and on the other hand, when you are looked after and protected by a whole network of various Western organizations and the authorities would not risk doing anything to you”.
That image is favorable not only for Tymoshenko herself, but also for her associates, while she is still in prison. Speaking on behalf of the opposition at large, Yatsenyuk and Klitschko have successfully used her image as a trump card in their negotiations with the authorities and the West for their own ambitions. That is why for their political career it is better that Tymoshenko stay behind the bars as long as possible. That is why despite the usual rhetoric none of the prominent politicians are taking any concrete steps to free Tymoshenko – it is currently not beneficial to anybody, thinks Vsevolod Veselov, an expert at the Moscow State University.

“If she were set free they would lose the symbol of the presence of political prisoners in Ukraine. Secondly, Tymoshenko would attempt to consolidate her party, the Yulia Tymoshenko Block. Taking into account that Klitschko is playing on the electoral field of Tymoshenko, he would not benefit from that. The same goes for the other opposition leaders”.

The results of the latest polls taken among the residents of Ukraine show that the number of those who support the protests and those who are absolutely opposed to them is about the same. The ratings of the current authorities and the opposition leader Vitaly Klitschko do not differ much either – about as many Ukrainians are prepared to vote for him as for Viktor Yanukovich. However, Yulia Tymoshenko's release would radically change the current distribution of power.

 

[oyarde]

I hope the Ukraine makes the most of the opportunity to be strong , remain free and independ.

 

[Wadesc]

Picture 1: Thats a pellet rifle

Picture 2: Those arent protesters

Picture 3: Good for them

Those of you backing government thugs sniping protesters are sick people. Get your priorities straight. You are "throwing out the baby with the bath water"

If you want boot-in face fascism as opposed to western cryptofascism, be my guest, to me the answer is very clear.

 

[COpatriot]

Perhaps.