What's your prediction for Iowa?

[alexpasch]

I voted for 2nd but that's the optimist in me speaking. Third is probably more likely. My mother lives in Iowa - I hope she isn't indicative of the typical Iowa voter. I've spent the last two months trying to open her eyes and she stubbornly sticks to her "I don't see him on TV so he can't win" crap. I showed her the Meetup group info to prove how large, by comparison to other candidates, his support base actually is. Her eyes glazed over. Frustrating, to put it mildly. On a more positive note, my father and two brothers are all Ron Paul supporters.

Dig up the statistics that show how unpopular the Revolutionary War was back when it was happening (I think about 50% of the population was against the idea). Sometimes doing what is right is unpopular. What matters is that you do what is right. Tell her that people like her are why we are always stuck voting for the lesser of two evils.

 

[BenIsForRon]

I do not think a lot of Iowan folks do their own research. Rather they seem to be relying on these debates, visits, etc. One of the news people was showing pictures of candidates on the street and hardly anyone could identify the candidates except H. C.

One older lady thought Ron Paul was G. Dubya Bush!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! she said he looked like him.

Holy crap! Is there a youtube of this?

 

[Rattlehead]

I predict a massive upset - FIRST place.

Just a gut feeling And wishful thinking, I admit.

 

[markj]

1st.

Because I just know it.

 

[familydog]

Bullshit! Fred Thompson can't win Iowa! I live here, there is no way in hell Fred Thompson wins Iowa. Let me repeat... this idea is complete and utter bullshit excuse my language but I've never heard such malarkey in my life. If Fred Thompson wins Iowa I'll crap myself I'll go and buy a diaper and crap myself. Then after crapping myself I'll throw my messy diaper onto my car and spread my fecal matter all over my car. Do you know why I'm pledging to do this... because the chances of Fred Thompson winning Iowa are about as good as me getting struck by lightning outside on this sunny day as soon as I walk out my door. This is the most idiotic posting I've ever read. No offense to you who I presume to be a very passionate RP supporter, but you just don't know what you're talking about.

 

[UziSprayTF]

1% chance of first
9% chance of second
44% chance of third
44% chance of fourth
2% chance of fifth and lower

I voted third cuz I averaged it out. One thing that will really hurt Paul is the lack of college students in Iowa on the third. Most are still going to be moving back in or waiting a couple more days. but you guys surprised me on the fifth of Nov, so lets see that again!

I know the polls are, at best, rough gages. The lack of cell phones covered, first time repubs not counted, not listing paul as an option, etc... I know that Paul supports are the only ones setting up 4 story signs along the hwys in other states, I know they are much less likely to change their mind, or give up on election day. If all of these are as undervalued as Paul supporters tell me, then it is possible he could get first place, but that is a big if.

 

[hells_unicorn]

Although the odds would say 3rd, I'm going with my gut and saying that Ron will pull an upset 1st place victory and that John McCain will take 2nd place. Something about the way in which Huckabee and Romney are attacking each other just screams "Dean vs. Gephardt" from 4 years back. Iowans, for whatever reason, hate pointless attacks, and when you consider the similarities between Romney and Huckabee (minus the Bible Thumper vs. Moron thing), them attacking each other can't be described as anything other than pointless.

 

[LinearChaos]

first. the people are pissed.

 

[Primbs]

Third Place. But lets really try for first place.

 

[LinearChaos]

i see a lot of third place comments, and the "upset" meme that seems to be floating around is "3rd place".

I guess it is good to be modest but Iowans can make it happen

 

[ronpaul_prophet]

third but a strong third.

 

[american.swan]

Optimistically 4th, but maybe 5th.

I do not think a lot of Iowan folks do their own research. Rather they seem to be relying on these debates, visits, etc. One of the news people was showing pictures of candidates on the street and hardly anyone could identify the candidates except H. C.

One older lady thought Ron Paul was G. Dubya Bush!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! she said he looked like him.

I hold little hope for Iowa.

good post.

 

[LinearChaos]

I hold little hope for Iowa.

Then how can you have any hope at all? Go outside and go around your town. I bet you'll find a woman like you mentioned in about 15 minutes.

 

[Ruby Justice]

1st. Because he's second to none. It's like the difference between 5 fast food burgers, and a filet mignon.

 

[TheDHC]

as long as Ron Paul comes in the top 3, i will be happy

 

[PubliusPublicola]

I expect 13-18%, likely edging out Mccain... this time.

 

[smileylovesfreedom]

In a lottery conducted by drawing numbers from my cookie jar, I chose the number #1 for Ron Paul's place in the caucus tomorrow!

Let's hope my cookie jar is more reliable than pollsters who do the same thing except make it sound legit.

 

[NJNSB]

I think Romney has bought Iowa.
I mean that both figuratively and literally.

Romney 29%

Paul 27% (This will not only scare the heck out of McCain...it give Hannity an attack of apoplexy.)

Huckabee 23%
etc.

 

[blakjak]

It's going to be way too cold tomorrow morning for most people to go outside... and we are dedicated supporters.

Not really too cold for Iowa - about where it is "suppose" to be:

For Jan 3rd - Des Moines:
Average high/low = 29/12
Predicted high/low = 30/20

 

[Hudder]

3rd. Hopeful and realistic at the same time.