What's your prediction for Iowa?

[xerigen]

I voted first. Everyone always underestimates Ron Paul supporters. I remember seeing on these very forums people saying that Ron Paul would raise 1 million dollars on November 5th and that it would be a good day. Guess what? We were all blown away, so the average 3rd place voting I'm seeing here should result in 1st or 2nd.

 

[bc2208]

I voted first. Everyone always underestimates Ron Paul supporters. I remember seeing on these very forums people saying that Ron Paul would raise 1 million dollars on November 5th and that it would be a good day. Guess what? We were all blown away, so the average 3rd place voting I'm seeing here should result in 1st or 2nd.

We also heard predictions of at least 8 million on 12/16 and we got 6. I said fourth, but third would not surprise me. I do expect third in NH.

 

[Paul4Prez]

Any more predictions?

 

[stevedasbach]

I predict 3rd, but anything from 3rd-5th is likely. It all depends on how much of Paul's support isn't getting picked up by the polls. My best guess is that Paul will pull double his poll numbers -- possibly triple. That's somewhere between 10-21%. I think the highest potential 3rd place finisher besides Paul will top out at 15%, probably less. If Paul gets over 15%, he probably gets 3rd. Less than 15% and it's a crapshoot.

I definitely think Paul beats Guiliani. If anyone beats Paul out for 3rd, it will likely be McCain.

In order for Paul to come in 2nd, either Huckabee or Romney needs to crash and burn over the next three days. Could happen, but don't see evidence of it yet.

 

[all J's in IL for RP]

Optimistically 4th, but maybe 5th.

I do not think a lot of Iowan folks do their own research. Rather they seem to be relying on these debates, visits, etc. One of the news people was showing pictures of candidates on the street and hardly anyone could identify the candidates except H. C.

One older lady thought Ron Paul was G. Dubya Bush!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! she said he looked like him.

I hold little hope for Iowa.

But are those people going to vote? I think not. I hope not.

I say we're in a race for 3rd; I feel good about it, but the weather is worrisome. Older Thompson voters will be more likely to show up.

 

[Jeremy]

5th. Young voters don't go to the caucuses and old voters aren't interested in Dr. Paul in the numbers we need, so I think the current polls may actually be overestimating Dr. Paul's support in the state (relative to what he will get in the caucus). Looks like good weather (relative to the average January Iowa day) on caucus day which is bad for us.

I think you just don't understand what's going on with this movement. Young people don't go to caucuses? The people who are most interested in going are the serious supporters... and this is exactly what Dr. Paul has.

 

[Lucid American]

I think 3rd, but I checked 4th, because I'm scared to death of being disappointed.

The truth is, nobody has any idea what to expect from Paul's supporters -- too many variables.

He could finish 1st, and he could finish 6th, but if he finishes 1st, the machines to could rigged to put him at 6th, so if he's 6th, will we accept it -- and if he's 1st, will they accept it.

What the hell's the use anyway!

 

[Truth Warrior]

I think that it may just be possible that the AOL straw vote is correct.

 

[NOLA]

I voted fourth being optimistic. I'll still be happy with 5th. Remember to keep you expectations low so as not to get disappointed.

 

[knappz]

As of 12/29 Paul is tied for fourth with 8% in Iowa...I can not see us finishing below third there, more than a good chance of finishing in second IMO.

A second or third place finish in Iowa is better for us statistically leading into NH:
5 of 9 candidates won the White House with a win in NH as opposed to Iowa which for the last 15 winning candidates in Iowa only 4 have made it to the White House.

Since 1972 the winner of the Republican New Hampshire Primary has gone on to win it's parties nomination in 5 of 9 elections.

In the 8 elections since 1976 the winner of the Iowa Caucus has won the Republican nomination 6 times or 75% of the time...removing the incumbents the Republicans go to 2 times in 4 elections (50%).

That's not to say Iowa is not important, winning the Iowa caucus gives you a good chance of winning you parties nomination (50/50) but an even better chance of losing the White House. Statistically speaking NH is a better predictor of who will win in November... the prize is the White House not Iowa.

 

[itsnobody]

We will get 1st or 2nd, just watch....

 

[Paul4Prez]

Wednesday is the last day to log your prediction....

 

[Paul4Prez]

We fight on regardless...

I think 3rd, but I checked 4th, because I'm scared to death of being disappointed.

No matter where we finish in Iowa, we still have enough cash and enough volunteers to carry the battle forward to February 5th and beyond, so don't get too disappointed if we don't finish in the top 3 in Iowa.

Only a 6th place finish would really be a loss, because it would mean that Fox News and the national polls are right about the top five candidates. If we finish ahead of any or all of Giuliani, Thompson, and McCain, it makes Ron Paul a legitimate contender.

 

[Paulitician]

My favorite Soft Machine album:

Anything less than 3rd place means the beginning of the end for the Ron Paul Republica campaign, if you ask me.

 

[electronicmaji]

second or first

 

[Dave Pedersen]

First.

The war is two years too old and the young people want no part of it. There will be massive turnout on behalf of Ron Paul.

 

[GoApe4RonPaul2008]

Ron Paul will win in a landslide.. for these reasons... ALL the republicans are fed up with their candidates... the falling dollar...etc. They will wait till the general election! And the paul supporters WILL vote on the primary dates and support him hardcore there on those dates .

Take a day off when ur state has its primary.. Be the loudest Paul supporter there
That will win over more people then you think. Bring lotsa slim jims too! And make sure you organize with your local meetup group

 

[Hook]

Definitely in the top 6.

 

[Flex]

I chose third.

Whoever chose 7th (which is last) is just a hater.

 

[RadioDJforPaul]

I chose fourth but I hope we can get third. I guess we shall soon find out if Ron has all the support we think he does. If he gets top 2, it will be one of the happiest days of my life. If he comes in 6th...well lets not think about that.