What would it take to admit you're wrong about inflation?

You don't blow your nose?

That's not treating a symptom. That's disposing of bodily waste. I pee more often when I have a cold. Is that treating a symptom?

I posted that to promote austerity and getting this depression over with, as you very well know smartass :p . If I wanted to discuss antihistamines vs. homeopathy, I'd have found a different forum to do it in.

That said, if you really wanted to bust me you should have asked if I never use food spiced with habaneros to clear my head of congestion. That, like, say, temporary tariffs (?) could actually treat the symptoms of a recessionary cold without inhibiting the healing process.
 
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Good point. And that's also more like traditional medicine than homeopathy.

Like I say, I was more interested in making an analogy than having the medical discussion.

In short, I feel what will end this Second Great Depression is less QE NyQuil and more chicken soup! But, like the makers of NyQuil, the big banks that own the Fed make no profit from chicken soup.

And, if I can be forgiven for bastardizing Shakespeare, therein lies the Vicks (C) VapoRub (TM).
 
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The money supply should be increased based on real output if velocity is stable and economy is not crashing, so that deflation and inflation will be kept to the minimum.
 
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M2 is increasing faster then real output.
fredgraph.png

fredgraph.png

Velocity is the reason we do not have very high price inflation.
fredgraph.png

fredgraph.png
 
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The money supply should be increased based on real output if velocity is stable and economy is not crashing, so that deflation and inflation will be kept to the minimum.

How does one measure "real output"? I hope not "GDP". If the velocity of currency is stable and the supply of currency is constant, then GDP will remain constant. Yet, there may be rapid advances in technology taking place. Prices would likely be dropping under these circumstances thereby allowing individuals to benefit from the increasing efficiency of production. So, it should be clear that production is not measured with GDP. The reason GDP has increased in recent years in the face of a reduced velocity of currency is the concurrent expansion of the supply of currency (along with some creative accounting a la hedonics and substitutions). However, this has little to do with production, and certainly nothing to do with economic advancement.

In short, how does one in control of a currency know how much to inflate? ANSWER: Enough to maintain power.
 
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How does one measure "real output"? I hope not "GDP". If the velocity of currency is stable and the supply of currency is constant, then GDP will remain constant. Yet, there may be rapid advances in technology taking place. Prices would likely be dropping under these circumstances thereby allowing individuals to benefit from the increasing efficiency of production. So, it should be clear that production is not measured with GDP. The reason GDP has increased in recent years in the face of a reduced velocity of currency is the concurrent expansion of the supply of currency (along with some creative accounting a la hedonics and substitutions). However, this has little to do with production, and certainly nothing to do with economic advancement.

In short, how does one in control of a currency know how much to inflate? ANSWER: Enough to maintain power.
Real GDP does measure output, where did you get the idea that it does not. Consumer spending + investment + government spending + net exports adjusted for inflation is real output in a market economy.

John Maynard Keynes said:
All production is for the purpose of ultimately satisfying a consumer
 
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Real GDP does measure output, where did you get the idea that it does not. Consumer spending + investment + government spending + net exports adjusted for inflation is real output in a market economy.

What is "output"? How do you measure real wealth increases based on monetary expenditures?

If, as an example, someone got cancer, lost their $40k per year job, stopped spending $10k in discretionary spending, but started treatment for $80k, there'd be an INCREASE in the GDP. Has "output" or wealth gone up in the system?

Further, the GDP doesn't measure how much each participant values a trade, it just measures the monetary part of the trade.
 
What is "output"? How do you measure real wealth increases based on monetary expenditures?

If, as an example, someone got cancer, lost their $40k per year job, stopped spending $10k in discretionary spending, but started treatment for $80k, there'd be an INCREASE in the GDP. Has "output" or wealth gone up in the system?

Further, the GDP doesn't measure how much each participant values a trade, it just measures the monetary part of the trade.
GDP is meant for measuring the size of the whole domestic economy and not individual cases, an increase in GDP in a market economy will cause the economy to produce more to make up for the increased demand. That is why GDP is used to measure output.
 
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GDP is meant for measuring the size of the whole domestic economy

Or so we're told. I don't think that's really its purpose. I think its purpose is present the public with something that supposedly measures the size of the economy, and that makes it look like government spending increases that.
 
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GDP is meant for measuring the size of the whole domestic economy and not individual cases,

Whole economy == sum (individual cases). Any argument about a large economy must also apply to an economy of n << 100.

an increase in GDP in a market economy will cause the economy to produce more to make up for the increased demand.

WHAT? I honestly have no idea what you're trying to say here, but the one thing that I can say is that "an increase in the GDP" causes nothing. It's just an arbitrary measure of what's happened, and doesn't have a direct actionable effect on the economy.

In addition, the ONLY things that can increase supply are increased efficiencies or applying savings to investment. Nothing about more spending can increase supply directly. It can, at best, signal producers to shift from one production area to another, or to take savings to invest.

That is why GDP is used to measure output.

So, to measure demand, you measure how much money changed hands? Or to increase supply? What does the pronoun "that" refer to?

I can't tell what your argument is.
 
Whole economy == sum (individual cases). Any argument about a large economy must also apply to an economy of n << 100.
Our debate is in macroeconomics, a few individual actions where an increase in GDP does not increase wealth is not an arguement.

WHAT? I honestly have no idea what you're trying to say here, but the one thing that I can say is that "an increase in the GDP" causes nothing. It's just an arbitrary measure of what's happened, and doesn't have a direct actionable effect on the economy.
So you are saying that if we all reduced our consumption by half it would have no direct actionable effect on the economy. Or if the government in our current situation launched a 500 billion dollar stimulus spending package no direct actionable effect would happen.

In addition, the ONLY things that can increase supply are increased efficiencies or applying savings to investment. Nothing about more spending can increase supply directly. It can, at best, signal producers to shift from one production area to another, or to take savings to invest.
That is only true if the economy is at full employment.

So, to measure demand, you measure how much money changed hands? Or to increase supply? What does the pronoun "that" refer to?

I can't tell what your argument is.
To measure the demand in a whole economy aggregate demand (C+ I + G + NX) is used.
 
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To measure the demand in a whole economy aggregate demand (C+ I + G + NX) is used.

I don't see how G, which is money spent in ways the rightful owners of that money wouldn't spend themselves if it were left to them, can count as something there is demand for.
 
Or if the government in our current situation launched a 500 billion dollar stimulus spending package no direct actionable effect would happen.

experts outside the Fed, such as Mohammed El Erian at the Pimco investment firm, suggest that the Fed may have created and spent over $4 trillion for a total return of as little as 0.25% of GDP (i.e., a mere $40 billion bump in U.S. economic output).

That comes from Andrew Huszar, who managed the Federal Reserve's QE1 program.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303763804579183680751473884
 
Wouldn't production be a better measure of economic health than demand?


As it turns out, and this becomes clear if one ponders it awhile and with some nominal competence, "economic health" is an almost meaningless term. Why? Because predication turns on a set of presuppositions the range of values and perspectives of which are so broad, potentially so non-objective, and therefore so arbitrary that there becomes little hope of settling on an agreed definition between a small handful of individuals, much less a statistically valid human population.

For example, some may say that demand indeed is the prime indicator of economic health. Of those, some will say that demand for basics is what counts. Those would be the people for whom life is a grey and sullen affair to be endured from cradle to grave. In other words, the socialist/communist/collectivist praisers of authoritarian rule by which equal poverty is imposed upon one and all and every many is forced to live his life as if it were an apology to his fellow men and the universe for having been born.

At the other extreme would be those who say demand for the most inane triviality is the proper indicator. Those would be the people who see economic health as residing at its apex in endless, mindless, pointless consumerism. Life is a spend-fest wherein the moral man "does his part" by investing in endless procurement, consumption, and waste as he feigns his joyful bouncing from one purchase to the next. He may seem happy, but below the superficiality of his vacuous, plastered-on smile, his life is disturbingly similar in fundamental flavor to the metallic, leaden taste of the toxic and mere existence of his collectivist buddy next door.

The litany of possible choices laying between these extremes is probably large enough to be worthy of note and that covers only one point of view on that particular approach to defining "economic health". There are no doubt a large number of differing demand-centered possibilities that could be asserted as the "correct" measures. There is nothing objectively compelling in any of them insofar as one's assertion of their primacy as the most perfect measure. It's all matters of chocolate v. vanilla. All mere personal opinion.

Some might disagree and say, as you have suggested, that the measure lies in production. Similar sets of manifold points of view may be formulated into theories claiming to be ascendant above all others and they may many of them be perfectly correct of one accepts the entire body of ufundamental presuppositions that underpin them. It is, of course, that last bit which serves as the fly in the ointment. Much as with anuses, most people have opinions. This one want that and that one wants this and people are endlessly driven, it seems, to justify why things should be their way and not another.

I think "economic health" is a baloney term - a political term - contrived and used as a crude but effective bludgeon to affect public opinion. It seems to me to speak very strongly to the sense of entitlement that rages wildly in so many people. The only real difference between individuals lies in which end of the entitlement spectrum they fall. The near-suicidal, auto-apologizing socialist, full of self-absorption in his endless loathing of all things human - himself the apex object of his sadly bitter hatred - sees everyone as entitled to the third party provision of food, shelter, clothing, and so forth. On the other hand we have the equally bankrupt bouncer of Brave New World who expects to have her birth control magically provided by unnamed third party sources... and a nice large screen LED TV... and the great litany of shiny things that makes her go "Ooooooo... I WANT that."

Those who seek power choose their sides, identify the "core issues" (read "the litany of demands") and pander pusuant thereto. Given the ways in which "economics" has been conceptually mangled for the purposes of such pandering, it becomes clear that there is nothing scientifically neutral about the political term and its derivatives such as "economic health". It is pure baloney contrived with the sole purpose of inflaming the base proclivities of avarice and fear. Because it speaks to so fundamental a set of human drives and relies upon the most reliably deplorable qualities of the human spirit, the method works like a charm from generation to generation, and better with each successive iteration precisely due to those rueful characteristics of statistical humanity.

What is not addressed very often in discussions of "economic health", in case you have not noticed, are the notions that are central to human freedom, which itself is the very fountainhead of prosperity and there is a very good reason for this. It appears to me that most people fail to grasp a very fundamental notion regarding statistically significant populations: their statistical nature. This is especially true in the discussion of economies and their "health", particularly by the authoritarian collectivists, but also, if less egregiously, by those of other stripes. The authoritarian collectivist openly, knowingly, and deliberately ignores the statistical nature of large human populations. They think they can force outcomes upon every last individual, thereby fulfilling their personal ambitions in accord with their private definitions of the perfect society. This, of course, is demented in a very real and, as it has turned out, dangerous way as witnessed by the ultimate results this mental orientation has produced in the twentieth century with the slaughter of some 200 millions of presumably innocent people who had the shit protected and served out of them by raging psychopaths such as Mao and Stalin.

They blindly and intransigently press the shoulders of their victim populations into the grindstone that resolutely ignores the statistical and utterly unavoidable truth about such populations: one size does not fit all in the vast and overwhelming majority of human concerns. In economic terms this means that not everyone is going to be prosperous for a given, one-size-fits-all definition of the term. Not all will "make it". Some will be poor. Some will even die. This reality does not imply in any manner or measure that prosperity is not "ours"; that the land and people are not flourishing. Such notions, when applied statistically to large (i.e. valid) populations must perforce be taken statistically, which is to say that there will invariably be a distribution of outcomes. When a land is "prosperous" that distribution appears normal and perhaps toward being tight with a narrow standard deviation. As general prosperity diminishes, the curve widens, skews ever more heavily to "poor", often tightens toward the wealthy (though not always), and sigma is large, meaning simply that more and more people fall to poverty, for a given definition of the term.

This quality of "prosperity" when used as a political term, which is by necessity statistical in nature, cannot be avoided, yet the authoritarian collectivist makes endless believe that it is not so and that by the application of potentially deadly force they can impose equal economic prosperity upon all. In a sense this is actually correct. What "they" never tell you, however, is that in their model the standard that defines "prosperity" is so low as to invite horror, ridicule, and endless scorn, for that is all their model of a perfect society is able to achieve. It is conceptually similar to them designing aircraft. It has all manner of really cool looking fins and points and what have you, but in the end it never leaves the ground because really cool looking fins and points do not a viable aircraft make. They are as fifth graders attempting to put men on the moon, thinking that the sheer force of will that is be made so will in fact suffice, absent any knowledge of aerospace engineering. In other words, it simply is not going to happen, all wild wishing notwithstanding.

Such people do not in the least way understand humanity. The see it - the sometimes ugly truth - and shrink away as frightened and cowardly toddlers from that which their minds refuse to accept. Positive reality means nothing to them, representing nothing other than a thing to be reviled, from which to recoil, and to be defeated and replaced with their masturbatory fog of perfection. The mode of comportment reminds me of the old R&D cartoon where they start with the "paradigm" on the left, successful completion resides on the right, and in the middle rests a "cloud" with the words therein: "and then a miracle happens". These people have NO idea what they are doing. They only know, at least vaguely, what they want and will stop at nothing to get it, even if they have to impoverish or even murder vast oceans of humanity. What they do not see, likely because they refuse to, is that even if they get everything they want in terms of the steps toward the goal, the objective will never be attained because they cannnot be. The wingless brick will never sustain its own flight. It will always fail the moment third party resources cease to be applied to it. It is inefficient and it fails by necessity.

This, my friends, nutshells the basic problems of the concept of "economic health" as a political notion.

Sorry to have gone on.
 
Our debate is in macroeconomics, a few individual actions where an increase in GDP does not increase wealth is not an arguement.

I wasn't saying "look at these few actions and imagine how they would affect a nation-sized economy" - was saying: Apply macro-economics to a economy of a few people and look at how the GDP is meaningless when a worse economy produces a rise in the overall GDP.

So you are saying that if we all reduced our consumption by half it would have no direct actionable effect on the economy. Or if the government in our current situation launched a 500 billion dollar stimulus spending package no direct actionable effect would happen.

If we all reduced our consumption by one half, that would directly affect the measures of the economy (like GDP). That the GDP has now changed doesn't have further effects.

Further, the govt launching a $500 billion dollar stimulus would be an example of reducing "savings" to increase investment. That's the action that changes the economy. That the GDP changed when this happened doesn't cause further changes.

You're confusing the measure of the economy with the actual actions in the economy. I was saying that a changing measure doesn't further change the economy. It's a changing economy that changes the measure.

You're basically saying that if you measured that you were 5ft tall, then later that you were 6ft tall, then it's the measuring tape that caused you to get taller.

That is only true if the economy is at full employment.

So you're saying that if the economy isn't at "full employment", then the supply of goods can be increased by employing more people (or capital)?

That's perfectly included in the case of "shifting savings to investment." If someone is not employed, they are "saving" their labor. If they then start working, they begin "investing" it.

To measure the demand in a whole economy aggregate demand (C+ I + G + NX) is used.

You said "That's why GDP is used to measure output." I was asking what you meant by "that." You entirely avoided my question and restated a basic tautology of standard macro.

You might as well be a Paul Samuelson bot. You're not answering direct questions that I need answered to understand your posts, and you're not listening to the arguments being made.
 
As it turns out, and this becomes clear if one ponders it awhile and with some nominal competence, "economic health" is an almost meaningless term. Why? Because predication turns on a set of presuppositions the range of values and perspectives of which are so broad, potentially so non-objective, and therefore so arbitrary that there becomes little hope of settling on an agreed definition between a small handful of individuals, much less a statistically valid human population.

For example, some may say that demand indeed is the prime indicator of economic health. Of those, some will say that demand for basics is what counts. Those would be the people for whom life is a grey and sullen affair to be endured from cradle to grave. In other words, the socialist/communist/collectivist praisers of authoritarian rule by which equal poverty is imposed upon one and all and every many is forced to live his life as if it were an apology to his fellow men and the universe for having been born.

At the other extreme would be those who say demand for the most inane triviality is the proper indicator. Those would be the people who see economic health as residing at its apex in endless, mindless, pointless consumerism. Life is a spend-fest wherein the moral man "does his part" by investing in endless procurement, consumption, and waste as he feigns his joyful bouncing from one purchase to the next. He may seem happy, but below the superficiality of his vacuous, plastered-on smile, his life is disturbingly similar in fundamental flavor to the metallic, leaden taste of the toxic and mere existence of his collectivist buddy next door.

The litany of possible choices laying between these extremes is probably large enough to be worthy of note and that covers only one point of view on that particular approach to defining "economic health". There are no doubt a large number of differing demand-centered possibilities that could be asserted as the "correct" measures. There is nothing objectively compelling in any of them insofar as one's assertion of their primacy as the most perfect measure. It's all matters of chocolate v. vanilla. All mere personal opinion.

Some might disagree and say, as you have suggested, that the measure lies in production. Similar sets of manifold points of view may be formulated into theories claiming to be ascendant above all others and they may many of them be perfectly correct of one accepts the entire body of ufundamental presuppositions that underpin them. It is, of course, that last bit which serves as the fly in the ointment. Much as with anuses, most people have opinions. This one want that and that one wants this and people are endlessly driven, it seems, to justify why things should be their way and not another.

I think "economic health" is a baloney term - a political term - contrived and used as a crude but effective bludgeon to affect public opinion. It seems to me to speak very strongly to the sense of entitlement that rages wildly in so many people. The only real difference between individuals lies in which end of the entitlement spectrum they fall. The near-suicidal, auto-apologizing socialist, full of self-absorption in his endless loathing of all things human - himself the apex object of his sadly bitter hatred - sees everyone as entitled to the third party provision of food, shelter, clothing, and so forth. On the other hand we have the equally bankrupt bouncer of Brave New World who expects to have her birth control magically provided by unnamed third party sources... and a nice large screen LED TV... and the great litany of shiny things that makes her go "Ooooooo... I WANT that."

Those who seek power choose their sides, identify the "core issues" (read "the litany of demands") and pander pusuant thereto. Given the ways in which "economics" has been conceptually mangled for the purposes of such pandering, it becomes clear that there is nothing scientifically neutral about the political term and its derivatives such as "economic health". It is pure baloney contrived with the sole purpose of inflaming the base proclivities of avarice and fear. Because it speaks to so fundamental a set of human drives and relies upon the most reliably deplorable qualities of the human spirit, the method works like a charm from generation to generation, and better with each successive iteration precisely due to those rueful characteristics of statistical humanity.

What is not addressed very often in discussions of "economic health", in case you have not noticed, are the notions that are central to human freedom, which itself is the very fountainhead of prosperity and there is a very good reason for this. It appears to me that most people fail to grasp a very fundamental notion regarding statistically significant populations: their statistical nature. This is especially true in the discussion of economies and their "health", particularly by the authoritarian collectivists, but also, if less egregiously, by those of other stripes. The authoritarian collectivist openly, knowingly, and deliberately ignores the statistical nature of large human populations. They think they can force outcomes upon every last individual, thereby fulfilling their personal ambitions in accord with their private definitions of the perfect society. This, of course, is demented in a very real and, as it has turned out, dangerous way as witnessed by the ultimate results this mental orientation has produced in the twentieth century with the slaughter of some 200 millions of presumably innocent people who had the shit protected and served out of them by raging psychopaths such as Mao and Stalin.

They blindly and intransigently press the shoulders of their victim populations into the grindstone that resolutely ignores the statistical and utterly unavoidable truth about such populations: one size does not fit all in the vast and overwhelming majority of human concerns. In economic terms this means that not everyone is going to be prosperous for a given, one-size-fits-all definition of the term. Not all will "make it". Some will be poor. Some will even die. This reality does not imply in any manner or measure that prosperity is not "ours"; that the land and people are not flourishing. Such notions, when applied statistically to large (i.e. valid) populations must perforce be taken statistically, which is to say that there will invariably be a distribution of outcomes. When a land is "prosperous" that distribution appears normal and perhaps toward being tight with a narrow standard deviation. As general prosperity diminishes, the curve widens, skews ever more heavily to "poor", often tightens toward the wealthy (though not always), and sigma is large, meaning simply that more and more people fall to poverty, for a given definition of the term.

This quality of "prosperity" when used as a political term, which is by necessity statistical in nature, cannot be avoided, yet the authoritarian collectivist makes endless believe that it is not so and that by the application of potentially deadly force they can impose equal economic prosperity upon all. In a sense this is actually correct. What "they" never tell you, however, is that in their model the standard that defines "prosperity" is so low as to invite horror, ridicule, and endless scorn, for that is all their model of a perfect society is able to achieve. It is conceptually similar to them designing aircraft. It has all manner of really cool looking fins and points and what have you, but in the end it never leaves the ground because really cool looking fins and points do not a viable aircraft make. They are as fifth graders attempting to put men on the moon, thinking that the sheer force of will that is be made so will in fact suffice, absent any knowledge of aerospace engineering. In other words, it simply is not going to happen, all wild wishing notwithstanding.

Such people do not in the least way understand humanity. The see it - the sometimes ugly truth - and shrink away as frightened and cowardly toddlers from that which their minds refuse to accept. Positive reality means nothing to them, representing nothing other than a thing to be reviled, from which to recoil, and to be defeated and replaced with their masturbatory fog of perfection. The mode of comportment reminds me of the old R&D cartoon where they start with the "paradigm" on the left, successful completion resides on the right, and in the middle rests a "cloud" with the words therein: "and then a miracle happens". These people have NO idea what they are doing. They only know, at least vaguely, what they want and will stop at nothing to get it, even if they have to impoverish or even murder vast oceans of humanity. What they do not see, likely because they refuse to, is that even if they get everything they want in terms of the steps toward the goal, the objective will never be attained because they cannnot be. The wingless brick will never sustain its own flight. It will always fail the moment third party resources cease to be applied to it. It is inefficient and it fails by necessity.

This, my friends, nutshells the basic problems of the concept of "economic health" as a political notion.

Sorry to have gone on.

I'm not reading all of that. Just going by your second to last sentence, I agree that economic health is impossible to measure with any accuracy. But that's not going to stop people from trying. The question then becomes, what is the best way to do that?
 
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