What will the spin be if Ron Paul wins Iowa?

Associated Press, January 3, 2008:

Voting Fraud May Have Occured, Iowa Voting Machines Blamed For "Impossible Result," Says Expert Political Analyst:
 
Unfortunately I don't know that it is possible for Ron Paul to win Iowa or even place well unless he can get 50.1% or better to show up in the Caucuses. You see it's not enough to have the most people out of all other candidates show up. Other candidate's supporters can band together to block out another candidate who would otherwise win. We all know that Ron Paul has no love lost with his fellow neo-con compadres and if Ron Paul does have a high turnout I don't doubt this tactic will be employed. I'll give you a very generous scenario

Ron Paul 40%
Huckabee 26%
Romney 19%
Thompson 9%
Guiliani 6%

Huckabee supporters join Romney supporters ... that's 45% resulting in a delegate who will go to the convention... who will be open to voting for either huck or Romney and will exclude the option of voting for Ron Paul.

Another scenario Huckabee supporters joins with Thompson And Guiliani supporters that again is 41% ... to get a delegate who won't support Ron Paul at the convention.

Romney supporters could even join with Thompson and Guiliani to make sure not even the top two candidates win that precinct with a 44% share of the precinct vote.

These are just three scenarios where Ron Paul loses delegates. This sort of thing happens all the time at caucuses. That's how they are different from primaries. People can join together to spite a candidate... and somehow I have this feeling that there might be a lot of that going on at the caucuses that's why we need a torrent of supporters attending caucuses. We need 50.1% in any given caucus site to make sure we select the delegates.
 
It'd be a complete upset, but I don't think he can get first.

Third is very good and possible.

I agree...I saw last night on Fox from one of their polls that it went:
Huckabee 35%
Romney 27%
Thompson 9%
Giuliani 8%
Paul 8%
McCain 6%(I think)
 
"Huckabee wins! Huckabee Wins!


After conceeding defeat to an unnofficial winner, Huckabee wins the hearts of the at least 18 people who came out to vote for him. Romney was a close third, and with Guilanai and McCain focussing on future primaries all eyes will be on more important states.
 
Faux morning news. Those RP supporters are at it again. They just spammed the Iowa polls from their computers. They spammed the diebold machines to make it look like he has support
See, diesbold is a computer also and is the same as a computer at home and they figured out how to send waves from their computers to these diebold machines.
 
there is no way to spin it. you win, you win. Ron Paul would be all over the media. If we bring in ENOUGH disenfranchised voters, we COULD pull off a win here, but it's going to be tight in Iowa.

true I don't expect a win in Iowa but will be impressed if it happens!
 
I agree...I saw last night on Fox from one of their polls that it went:
Huckabee 35%
Romney 27%
Thompson 9%
Giuliani 8%
Paul 8%
McCain 6%(I think)


the problem occurs when you account for turnout.
RP supporters = hardcore voters
all others = lethargic fair-weather voters

NEVER stop getting votes, Iowa is crucial to eliminating the idea of RP as a fringe candidate
 
There's no spin that they could possibly use. And the bandwagon effect would sweep the nation into sweet libertarian rapture...

I know I have seen you on TV but you are sounding like Karl Rove, except his words would be "pure libertarian hell"
 
BREAKING NEWS

(MSNBC) Romney Does Not Win Iowa


"(MSNBC) Des Moines, Iowa -- Republican Presidential candidate, Mitt Romney, has lost the Iowa caucus that was held the other day.* The final results left Romney with 16 percent of the vote. Another Republican Presidential candidate, Mike Huckabee, lost with 15 percent of the vote. Giuliani lost with 6 percent of the vote.

Besides Romney and the other two, the remaining candidates within the Republican field lost as well -- all except one, whom it was that did not lose. The other candidates that lost were as follows (in order of vote percentages):

Undecided: 11%
Fred Thompson: 2%
Rudy Giuliani: 6%
Mike Huckabee: 15%
John McCain: 1%

[...]

Despite the fact that only one candidate, though not Romney, did not actually lose the straw poll, Romney's energy and passion is what Romney believes the Republican Party needs at this juncture in its history.

* At 33%, Ron Paul was the only candidate that did not lose the straw poll."

adapted from: http://www.thespoof.com/news/spoof.c...dline=s2i25867
 
Listen people. During the AMES straw poll, many hear thought he was gonna get at least third, and some said second, few still thought he would win. He got 5th, and people were dejected.

There will be these threads suggesting the impossible. That he would win Iowa. This will just take the wind out of our sails...

Just say top 3.
 
Unfortunately I don't know that it is possible for Ron Paul to win Iowa or even place well unless he can get 50.1% or better to show up in the Caucuses. You see it's not enough to have the most people out of all other candidates show up. Other candidate's supporters can band together to block out another candidate who would otherwise win. We all know that Ron Paul has no love lost with his fellow neo-con compadres and if Ron Paul does have a high turnout I don't doubt this tactic will be employed. I'll give you a very generous scenario

Ron Paul 40%
Huckabee 26%
Romney 19%
Thompson 9%
Guiliani 6%

Huckabee supporters join Romney supporters ... that's 45% resulting in a delegate who will go to the convention... who will be open to voting for either huck or Romney and will exclude the option of voting for Ron Paul.

Another scenario Huckabee supporters joins with Thompson And Guiliani supporters that again is 41% ... to get a delegate who won't support Ron Paul at the convention.

Romney supporters could even join with Thompson and Guiliani to make sure not even the top two candidates win that precinct with a 44% share of the precinct vote.

These are just three scenarios where Ron Paul loses delegates. This sort of thing happens all the time at caucuses. That's how they are different from primaries. People can join together to spite a candidate... and somehow I have this feeling that there might be a lot of that going on at the caucuses that's why we need a torrent of supporters attending caucuses. We need 50.1% in any given caucus site to make sure we select the delegates.

You're thinking of the way the Democrats do it. The Republicans quietly show up and vote and go home in 2 minutes.
 
They will say it just goes to show you how irrelevant Iowa is in the primaries nowadays, and go on to say the same about New Hampshire, Wyoming, Michigan, South Carolina, Nevada, etc.
 
Listen people. During the AMES straw poll, many hear thought he was gonna get at least third, and some said second, few still thought he would win. He got 5th, and people were dejected.

There will be these threads suggesting the impossible. That he would win Iowa. This will just take the wind out of our sails...

Just say top 3.

Agreed.
 
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