slantedview
Member
- Joined
- May 23, 2007
- Messages
- 3,114
it won't be spambots, or weather.
instead it will be the infamous weatherbots.
hehe
instead it will be the infamous weatherbots.
hehe
it won't be spambots, or weather.
instead it will be the infamous weatherbots.
hehe
It'd be a complete upset, but I don't think he can get first.
Third is very good and possible.
Apathy? Bad Weather?
Spambots?![]()
there is no way to spin it. you win, you win. Ron Paul would be all over the media. If we bring in ENOUGH disenfranchised voters, we COULD pull off a win here, but it's going to be tight in Iowa.
I agree...I saw last night on Fox from one of their polls that it went:
Huckabee 35%
Romney 27%
Thompson 9%
Giuliani 8%
Paul 8%
McCain 6%(I think)
Apathy? Bad Weather?
Spambots?![]()
There's no spin that they could possibly use. And the bandwagon effect would sweep the nation into sweet libertarian rapture...
Unfortunately I don't know that it is possible for Ron Paul to win Iowa or even place well unless he can get 50.1% or better to show up in the Caucuses. You see it's not enough to have the most people out of all other candidates show up. Other candidate's supporters can band together to block out another candidate who would otherwise win. We all know that Ron Paul has no love lost with his fellow neo-con compadres and if Ron Paul does have a high turnout I don't doubt this tactic will be employed. I'll give you a very generous scenario
Ron Paul 40%
Huckabee 26%
Romney 19%
Thompson 9%
Guiliani 6%
Huckabee supporters join Romney supporters ... that's 45% resulting in a delegate who will go to the convention... who will be open to voting for either huck or Romney and will exclude the option of voting for Ron Paul.
Another scenario Huckabee supporters joins with Thompson And Guiliani supporters that again is 41% ... to get a delegate who won't support Ron Paul at the convention.
Romney supporters could even join with Thompson and Guiliani to make sure not even the top two candidates win that precinct with a 44% share of the precinct vote.
These are just three scenarios where Ron Paul loses delegates. This sort of thing happens all the time at caucuses. That's how they are different from primaries. People can join together to spite a candidate... and somehow I have this feeling that there might be a lot of that going on at the caucuses that's why we need a torrent of supporters attending caucuses. We need 50.1% in any given caucus site to make sure we select the delegates.
Listen people. During the AMES straw poll, many hear thought he was gonna get at least third, and some said second, few still thought he would win. He got 5th, and people were dejected.
There will be these threads suggesting the impossible. That he would win Iowa. This will just take the wind out of our sails...
Just say top 3.