What states do we have the best shots on Super Tuesday?

[Son of Detroit]

I'm guessing Alaska, Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois? Are there any sleeper states out there? I've been marking down my calender for this for a long time. I know I won't be able to sleep the night of 2/4. Heck, I might even decide to "be sick" the 5th and stay home from school to watch everything unfold. I know I wouldn't be able to concentrate anyway.

 

[Trigonx]

RP is stopping in North Dakota on the 4th i believe. also Montana is a ripe state for us.

 

[Badger Paul]

North Dakota, Alaska, Montana, Hawaii, Colorado. I would go to work and have pleasant day and come back here on the 6th and find out how REALLY did. The MSM isn't going to be reporting on these caucuses compared to the primaries so you'll have to paitiently wait to see how things shake out.

 

[terlinguatx]

...

 

[Trigonx]

Next tuesday these forums are going to be PACKED with people. 4000+ users on at least. I wonder how much negativity will be around.

 

[RonPaulFanInGA]

I voted for Ron Paul here in Georgia today. He's polling in the double digits...but Huckabee is running away with the state. I think second place here is very possible.

 

[R_Harris]

Pretty good guesses, we got a shot in every state. Here's my ranking from highest to lowest probability of victory:

Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Georgia
New Jersey
California
Montana
Tennessee
New York
Minnesota
North Dakota
Utah
Illinois
Arkansas
Missouri
Massachusetts
Connecticut
Delaware
Oklahoma

Wow, Arizona (McCain's state) and California that high? And what objective evidence are you basing your opinion on?

If we placed 3rd in either one of those states, that would be HUGE.

 

[Bilgefisher]

Don't forget Colorado. We have the 4th highest donations per capita and its a closed caucus. Downside is there are a lot of Mormons here and countrary to what Mitt Romney claims, they do vote based on religion. 95% in Nevada as proof.

 

[scandinaviany3]

Wow, Arizona (McCain's state) and California that high? And what objective evidence are you basing your opinion on?

If we placed 3rd in either one of those states, that would be HUGE.

CA isnt winner takes all? Isnt it by congressional district?

If so does it matter placing as long as you win a lot of districts?

 

[InLoveWithRon]

Pretty good guesses, we got a shot in every state. Here's my ranking from highest to lowest probability of victory:

Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Georgia
New Jersey
California
Montana
Tennessee
New York
Minnesota
North Dakota
Utah
Illinois
Arkansas
Missouri
Massachusetts
Connecticut
Delaware
Oklahoma

I don't know why Georgia is so high.. That's deep south Huckleberry country.

 

[davver]

The Rocky Mountain states.

 

[celticsman7]

I don't know when Rhode Island's primary is but since it's such a small state I bet we could do farely well there.

 

[killatop]

GA is polling at 12% and we've been working pretty hard. We may not be able to get first but a lot of Christians are realizing Huckulbust is a fraud. I just tell them about Judicial Watch putting at 6th in most corrupt politicians and that pretty much seals it. Especially when they realize it's not biased when I tell them Hitlery is top dog and Obama is 8th. With the goon at 5th. I just ask them if that's what they really want, more corruption?

 

[libertythor]

I don't know why Georgia is so high.. That's deep south Huckleberry country.

Georgia is also the state where Harry Brown managed to get 2% of the popular vote in 2000 for the Presidency. In all other states he only got around .5% of the vote. There is a strong libertarian base in Georgia.

 

[jk8583]

montana and alaska i think are the top 2 best chances. north dakota too. someone said he will be there. i highly doubt any others will stop by. california will probably get the most attention from the others

 

[teshuah]

seeing as He's done well in the caucus states, i would think he would have a pretty good chance here in Minnesota - but we need a LOT more organization in the next few days, Minnesota

If he's stopping in Fargo I'm sure there's a good chance he's stopping in Mpls on Feb 4th too. Minnesota headquarters is doing a massive campaign calling right now. Just wish we had more ability to reach rural Minnesota farmers

 

[SRRP77]

Pretty good guesses, we got a shot in every state. Here's my ranking from highest to lowest probability of victory:

Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
edit: forgot Colorado
Georgia
New Jersey
California
Montana
Tennessee
New York
Minnesota
North Dakota
Utah
Illinois
Arkansas
Missouri
Massachusetts
Connecticut
Delaware
Oklahoma

I think Paul could do really well in NJ. I know a lot of on the fence voters- anyone have any anti-war Paul material I could print and give out?

 

[skgai]

We need to win Alaska. Ron Paul led a December poll there.

Other strongsuits:

Montana, Rand Paul campaigning means the campaign is taking notice
Tennessee, ditto
Georgia, double digits in polls. Can we maintain and raise?
North Dakota: The Great Plains appear to be good to Ron Paul
Minnesota: Only person campaigning there

Possibles:
Colorado: Was at 4% in poll this week, but Great Plains state.
Alabama: Big endorsement, but at 3% in poll this week.
Oklahoma: At 6% in poll this week.
Illinois: Several campaign offices.
Missouri: Look like a Huckabee state, but next to 10% Iowa.

Not looking good:
Arizona: McCain's state
Massachusetts: Romney's state
Utah: Mormons
Arkansas: Huckabee's state
New York: Giuliani's state, winner-take-all
New Jersey: Winner-take-all
California: Too big!
Connecticut: Paul isn't doing well on the East Coast.
Delaware
West Virginia: Caucuses didn't go well.

 

[Matt Collins]

TN is ripe for Ron!

 

[AlbemarleNC0003]

I don't know why Georgia is so high.. That's deep south Huckleberry country.

Confederate flag/states' rights issues are huge in GA.