What states do we have the best shots on Super Tuesday?

[Phunbaba]

In Colorado, east of the mountains, it's a pretty fair split between the canidates. Most are open to RP.

However, west of the mountains are FULL of mormoms. I expect Romney to take CO, with Ron in 2nd or 3rd.

 

[Gadsden Flag]

Today, in Missouri, I handed out about 250 RP slim jims on my college campus. Tomorrow, I'm going to try to do another batch.

 

[stevedasbach]

GA is polling at 12% and we've been working pretty hard. We may not be able to get first but a lot of Christians are realizing Huckulbust is a fraud. I just tell them about Judicial Watch putting at 6th in most corrupt politicians and that pretty much seals it. Especially when they realize it's not biased when I tell them Hitlery is top dog and Obama is 8th. With the goon at 5th. I just ask them if that's what they really want, more corruption?

One poll at 12%, but another at 5%. Don't make the mistake of assuming that the best poll is the correct one.

 

[life_boy]

One poll at 12%, but another at 5%. Don't make the mistake of assuming that the best poll is the correct one.

This is very, very true. Georgia will have a lot of voters, 640,000 by my estimate (based on 2000 primary numbers). 41,100 votes for RP is only 6.8%. We had 411 Precinct Leaders last night. Those guys GOTV. The media is no help. This is a person to person campaign. But it's still an enormous uphill battle.

Voter turnout may very well determine how strong RP shows.

 

[Bilgefisher]

In Colorado, east of the mountains, it's a pretty fair split between the canidates. Most are open to RP.

However, west of the mountains are FULL of mormoms. I expect Romney to take CO, with Ron in 2nd or 3rd.

Unfortunately I have to agree with this sentiment. Sad really that 95% of Mormons in Nevada voted based on religion.

 

[nate895]

In Colorado, east of the mountains, it's a pretty fair split between the canidates. Most are open to RP.

However, west of the mountains are FULL of mormoms. I expect Romney to take CO, with Ron in 2nd or 3rd.

However, if you can edge out Romney by more than 3% east of the mountains, and lose by 10% on the other side, you could win. East of the mountains (which I assume includes Denver and Colorado Springs) is where most of the population lives. This is how Bush won Ohio in 2004, he won by enough in Cincinnati and Columbus suburbs to offset the Kayahoga County (Cleveland) Kerry votes. Plus, if the precinct leader system works (gets 100:1 votes) we would get 50%+ votes in Colorado with a 65,000 voter turnout, probably win if <100,000, which is possible.

 

[The Machine]

We need to win Alaska. Ron Paul led a December poll there.

Other strongsuits:

Montana, Rand Paul campaigning means the campaign is taking notice
Tennessee, ditto
Georgia, double digits in polls. Can we maintain and raise?
North Dakota: The Great Plains appear to be good to Ron Paul
Minnesota: Only person campaigning there

Possibles:
Colorado: Was at 4% in poll this week, but Great Plains state.
Alabama: Big endorsement, but at 3% in poll this week.
Oklahoma: At 6% in poll this week.
Illinois: Several campaign offices.
Missouri: Look like a Huckabee state, but next to 10% Iowa.

Not looking good:
Arizona: McCain's state
Massachusetts: Romney's state
Utah: Mormons
Arkansas: Huckabee's state
New York: Giuliani's state, winner-take-all
New Jersey: Winner-take-all
California: Too big!
Connecticut: Paul isn't doing well on the East Coast.
Delaware
West Virginia: Caucuses didn't go well.

WV didn't have caucuses in the literal sense. Each county allowed registered Republican voters to vote online or at a County Convention--if there was one. This process chose the delegates going to the State GOP Convention. Last check showed that there are approximately 25% uncommited delegates. The Thompson, Ghouliani, Hunter, and Keyes delegates are still up for grabs. On the commited side, Romney is in the lead with Paul second; unless things changed since the last time I looked.

I heard that Ron Paul is the only candidate that will be there in person giving a speech. I think if Ron hits a home run on his speech, he could very possibly take all 18 delegates. WV has a winner take all convention. Even if Ron doesn't win the delegates at the convention, he could still win the remaining delegates during the--I think it's May--primary, which is open to all registered Republicans.

I don't know why things had to be so convoluted in the WV GOP race, but it is what it is. Let's hope WV is a "sleeper" state!

 

[SophisticatedFarmGirl]

CA is not winner take all this year. Every district gets 3 delegates. Winner of district gets the delegates.

 

[Joby]

CA is not winner take all this year. Every district gets 3 delegates. Winner of district gets the delegates.

Exactly....

I hope we've hit up SF, LA, Berkeley, and the emerald triangle, aka were neocons are a rare breed..

...along with GOP strongholds like San Diego and Orange County, of course.