We MUST Understand THIS to Do Better in Other States / Races

free.alive

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Personnel is advantage. Rand's campaign staff brings him little advantage.

Follow me, if you will.

As someone pretty close to the leadership in Ron's '08 and '12 campaigns, and having seen operations in multiple states on both campaigns, I can instantly notice one major difference between those campaigns and this one: very, VERY few libertarians (or, true believers) on Rand's presidential campaign. To my knowledge of the staff this time around, you can count on one hand the number of staff that were on both Ron's campaigns that are on this one. On two hands you can count the staff that were on the 2012 campaign. Sure there are a couple people throughout that were hired out of YAL or Rand's senate office.

In '08 we had more of the "remnant" working for the campaign. Long-time Birchers, Constitution Party people, long-time libertarians, etc. The consultants after the big moneybombs were Ron's DC friends that came from the Right to Work organization. Yes, the campaign was a joke, organizationally speaking, because there was never any expectation of having a shot, and no one saw the millions of dollars raised online coming. But the emotion, belief and dedication to Ron and libertarian ideas was sincere among just about the entire campaign organization.

The same was true of the 2012 campaign, even moreso. While there weren't many who worked the '08 campaign on the 2012 staff, there were quite a few. The leadership came from the Right to Work organization. Even more exhilarating were the number of closet an/cap's on the campaign who had been trained politically. They were typically young, maybe having worked on Rand's senate campaign or worked campaigns elsewhere throughout the country. But they were all die-hard libertarians, committed long-time supporters and admirer's of Ron Paul, though very realistic in the need to engage in political action. At least in the states I was in, volunteers played significant roles in organizing and leadership, and in a few we were able to bring the most competent on staff in key positions to help the grassroots buy-in to the not-so-fun work of actual campaign work.

So in 2012 the experience was totally different than in '08. Operations were managed quite well. Yes, there were obvious problems, mostly due to the nature of paradoxical nature of trying to run a successful insurgent libertarian campaign in a Republican primary. The Benton hate was bullshit. He's a Philly guy, tough, nasty and raw at times. But as of 2012, he hadn't made the McConnell move yet. His baby was New Hampshire, and there Ron came in second. He was fairly hands-off the rest of the country, with Tate and Kesari running the show in the caucus states. But New Hampshire was his. Tate, honest to a fault and totally devoted to Ron, was great, just a little too removed from the staff. From a staff perspective, I would say one of the biggest disappointments was the disjointed feel of things. They tried with the caucus states, but at the state leadership level it was tough to really feel connected to what was going on in IA, NV and NH, especially NH. So what, though.

We had developed organizational efforts in more than a dozen states, and then quickly set up shop in lesser target states once early ones were finished. The grassroots was trained, activated and focused as best as could be done in almost have the states in the country. Pretty impressive what was done by the campaign and the grassroots if you really think about it and see the bigger picture and longer game.

I could go on, but at Leadership Institute, Morton Blackwell has long taught that "personnel is policy." What he means by this in the context of the political training given there is that when you as a candidate get elected, or when you as a campaign manger or staff member get your guy elected, possibly the MOST important thing at that point is to fill the legislative office staff with people who are AT LEAST as committed to liberty as the candidate, preferably more.

One of the big takeaways we should get from this campaign is that the same rule should apply to campaign staff, both leadership and field staff. Rand's campaign is filled with people at important positions who were "staffers" from Santorum, Huntsman, Romney, etc in the past. Very, very few - almost no - Ron "staffers." So while these people, of course want to do well - their reputation is on the line - there is no way they can be invested in Rand, the Paul family, the liberty movement the way that staff of previous Paul campaigns were. It's just another campaign to them. When the Rand campaign is over, they'll all begin to jump ship in time to get hired on either the presumptive nominee's campaign, or, more likely, state level campaigns somewhere. Get in before the jobs for this cycle are gone. Maybe at AFP, NRA or some other organization.

So ultimately, if we want to have liberty candidates running for office, we need to not only encourage those among the grassroots who would make good candidates to run for office, but we need to develop dozens, then hundreds, then thousands of trained staff who can work on campaigns and who are totally committed to libertarian ideas. (My take, and I hope I'm right, is that this is the entire point of YAL.) Some will even be anarchists who agree with Walter Block and Murray Rothbard that there is value in doing political action as government, politics, campaigns and elected officials do affect our prospects for moving the ball forward for liberty.

Another big takeaway for me is that, while it's necessary that those of us working in politics are always repackaging libertarian ideas in ways that match where voters are at mentally and emotionally in a given cycle and district, we cannot submit to the temptation to water the ideas down. This, and the fact that Cruz is literally paying so many of Ron's apparently fair-weather volunteer leaders from 2012 (who likely joined up via the teaparty, not the liberty movement,) is probably the main reason Rand's support is nowhere near as fervent as Ron's was.

My other takeaway is you need candidates who want to win. It's my view that Ron never really wanted to be President, Either he just couldn't see himself in that role, or really didn't want to do that. I have my reasons to think that, and I don't see that as a negative on him in any way. It's clear to me that it was the supporters alone that gave him enjoyment from the process. And it seems to me that Rand hates the whole experience. He's not a popularity contest kind of guy, and that's why he'll never yuck it up like a Huckabee or tele-evangelist Cruz, he'll never look truly comfortable in his own skin like a Trump or a Cristie. I'm glad he's willing to be our guy, but we need to keep this in mind when recruiting candidates in the future.

The staff part above is so important, though, because if the people actually recruiting and working with the volunteers are just clocking in and not fully invested in victory for the movement and the ideas, most of the unbelievable results and persistence like we saw down the stretch we saw in 2012 will ever happen. There was fire in that 2012 organization, and there was 10x that fire in the grassroots - partly because they believed that they had leadership that gave them a shot and believed in the cause just as much as they did. That fire doesn't exist on Rand's staff in this campaign. Maybe a few exceptions, but, especially considering the leadership, they are exceptions. The grassroots, not surprisingly, is a barely alive compared to the 2012 grassroots, even nonexistent in so many states we rocked in 2012. What is happening right now in Maine, Missouri, Minnesota, Louisiana, Colorado, Washington, Idaho, etc? Were the grassroots active across the country this time, would fundraising be up or down? Would moneybombs be embarrassing or not? Maybe it would've been wise to leverage those 2012 relationships for Rand, along with all the trust and experience that was developed in the trenches. You know, that "grassroots organization" Rand supposedy has that the media keeps touting. Alas, Chip Englander did win a governor's race, though...

So the constructive take to my seeming negativity here is that we need to get more libertarians working campaigns. Not just being candidates. We always have that, and it's easy to find people with an ego big enough to think they can win a popularity contest. You need to have those big egos, but more importantly you need organization. And to build that, you need talented, experienced libertarians who know how to build campaigns that win. If our candidates and organizations rely on mere conservative staff and organizations, they will always sell us out, stab us in the back or just drop off in the end. Our people also can't be pussies, and can't hold the delusions that politics isn't a blood sport. Kesari always did what he had to do, and if he did things has we hear in the media, he was right to do it in my opinion. Like it or not, he was totally devoted to winning. He possibly made some mistakes, but he was totally devoted and committed. There are no Tates, Kesaris, Bentons and Shelleys, et al on Rand's campaign.

Trust me when I say we have very few people of this sort on our side.
 
+rep
The moneybombs in 2012 could have been much better. It seems a few states were on fire, but the ("virgin") grassroots was more excited in 2008.
 
I agree. I remember those early days. It had the energy and optimism of some spontaneous youth movement, yet our meetings had old birchers, college kids, homeschool moms, preachers, open-carrying gun nuts, truthers and internet shut-ins handing out dvd's and pamphlets about chemtrails, 9/11, the NAU etc.

It was a beautiful, special time of my life!
 
Don't worry... SABER will come through in the end.

Phill,

I get annoyed at the emails, too. But this goes right to my point. What else do we have?

Rothfeld may not be with Ron on a few issues, but he and some excellent people working with him are committed to making this movement a success. Problem is, we don't have any other firm of that caliber doing what they do. Saber can't work for all the campaigns we need to run.

Most consultants, necessary as they are, are bullshit. They'd advise a candidate away from liberty as a first order of business. The more candidates we have running (as Republicans) on this message, the more it gets out there. The more it gets out there, the more light bulbs go off in people's minds, the more activists get fired up because they get it for the first time.

But if our candidates suck, and they have shitty organizations that don't know what needs to be done to win or at least be competitive, this doesn't happen. If they promote liberty in a watered-down fashion, we get fair-weather people at best who never really get it, if we gain traction at all.

We don't need everyone to agree with us, we just need one more vote than our opponent, everywhere. But our message needs to slap people in the face, slap them over and over again until there's a big enough grassroots excited about it that it becomes exciting again.
 
I agree. I remember those early days. It had the energy and optimism of some spontaneous youth movement, yet our meetings had old birchers, college kids, homeschool moms, preachers, open-carrying gun nuts, truthers and internet shut-ins handing out dvd's and pamphlets about chemtrails, 9/11, the NAU etc.

It was a beautiful, special time of my life!

I chaired a local meet-up in '07-'08. I remember at least one of every example you list. It was like herding cats to keep everyone on point. Some may not have done much more than sign wave. At least I know everyone of them made it to the voting booth if the reminder and return emails were to be believed.
 
Yes! The sign waves! How pointless and perfect. All that raw enthusiasm we had no idea what to do with! I think if C4L would've achieved its original mission between '08 and '12 we could've held a lot of that together and been crazy strong in 2012.
 
I think sign waves are unfairly knocked - this derision comes from the "political pros." I wouldn't knock anyone's preferred method of activism if it wasn't hurting us, but do feel we have to acknowledge that 1.2 million GOTV calls (the textbook "right" way to campaign) in Iowa got us less than 10K votes. Really? The people who did this are heroes and I tend to agree it's one of the best and most necessary things to do... but also I know from personal experience that Ron got his highest percentages in some counties where no phone work or official campaign activities were done... only sign waves and the occasional handing out of slim jims.

Sign waves are fun, energizing, build name recognition and the "perception of support," and some activists will only do this. Better to be doing that than sitting at home playing games or throwing things at the TV. Name recognition is the #1 thing people vote on - only 25% or so vote on issues, so the training says. So while it's harder to put a finger on and quantify the results like phone banking, I believe it does improve the environment.
 
"It was a beautiful, special time of my life! "

It was for me too, I'll never forget it. 2007-2013. I was elected to my county board in '08 and served for eight years. Did some good things. The last couple of years has been a drawdown however, just as the whole movement has been in a drawdown too. Oh well. Time to move on and hopefully one day when the time is right (as it was back then) dream it all up again.
 
I wouldn't knock anyone's preferred method of activism if it wasn't hurting us. . . Sign waves are fun, energizing . . . and some activists will only do this. Better to be doing that than sitting at home playing games or throwing things at the TV.

Sure enough. Not quantifiable, trackable or targeted... but definitely gives supporters something fun to do. But sign waves won't get your candidate elected in a competitive race.

But this aside, my real point is we need to develop our own group of people who can manage campaigns, do polling, do media, strategy, etc. Reality-based, aggressive and results-oriented political pros who seek to make money advancing libertarian political candidates, issues and ballot measures. This prevents the Rand Paul's, Thomas Massies, etc. from having to dip into the well of conservative ladder-climbers to run their operations and provide the skill sets needed to win competitive races.

This can be done, but it would require seed money and focus. I know there was a PAC started last time that (Liberty for All?) that sought to fund candidates. I know YAL is developing libertarian students and some of those people are getting trained on campaigns and lobbying. So maybe it's already happening. But it needs to not be watered down.

Did you see Ron's speech the day before the caucus? (Paraphrasing) "Remember when we used to talk about ENDING the Federal Reserve? Remember when we used to talk about bringing ALL the troops home right away? Remember when we used to talk about shutting down the IRS, etc?"

Rand's message: Don't bomb without Constitutional authority/3-state solution to Iraq; simplify (with a chainsaw, nonetheless) the tax code; Audit the Fed. Similar. Different.

Beat Ron's and similar drums at the state, federal and local levels for a decade with candidates running competitive campaigns that can get a winning message out and go out and get votes against establishment candidates. Our ideas, put plainly, won't sound so weird then. But we need the key element of effective political pros, consultants, specialists, etc. We need to start while there's still organization in the movement.
 
+REP to the OP, very well thought out post. It's obvious to me the fire wasn't there with this campaign and that's why it's fallen short.

But I do find it odd the OP would not put any of that on Rand himself. Starting with endorsing Romney in 2012 he set off on a path that essentially crushed his chances in 2016. Had he simply followed in his dad's footsteps I'm willing to bet a lot of these people you're talking about would have wanted to be on his staff and help him for free. Because he cozied up to McConnell and played politics with the GOP starting with Romney's endorsement it lead him into an election cycle where he was considered an establishment candidate and that, combined with going after Trump in the first debate, crushed his campaign.

People can disagree with me all they want but instead of skirting around the ISIS issue, and trying to be moderate with positions like arming the Kurds, he should have simply stuck to the foreign policy of his dad and advocated a complete withdraw from the ME. It would have separated him vastly from the other candidates and he could have made it all about the money cementing his fiscal credibility. Instead he tried to play a balancing act with his foreign policy and that turned off Ron's supporters and made him seem weak to the NeoCon droves.

He played it all wrong starting with endorsing Romney and he really should drop out now, focus on his Senate seat, and rebrand himself over the next 4-8 years as the true rebel that we all know him to be.

In the words of Mike Erhmantraut, "No more half measures, Walter." That, to me, really sums up how I feel about Rand's actions this election cycle. He took half measure after half measure and it turned off Ron's supporters and made him seem weak in the eyes of the base he was trying to appeal to.

The good thing to take away here is that we finished completely above the <5% rif-raf. It's theoretically not over if he hangs on and makes it to Nevada with all these small candidates out but I find it incredibly unlikely Jeb Bush will be out by then, Trump will implode, Carson will drop out, and Cruz/Rubio will lose support. I think if Rand was smart he'd take the resources he has and focus on his Senate seat.
 
"Time to move on and hopefully one day when the time is right (as it was back then) dream it all up again.

Yeah, you can't be a volunteer forever. But we can get some people trained up. Get a few local candidates to throw a fledgling libertarian political consultant enough money to support himself and get better running long-shot campaigns. Talent doesn't want to work on losers. They want winners. We need to develop our own farm team.

And we still have a movement, though we just got beat up. We need to start now.
 
The Benton hate was bullshit. He's a Philly guy, tough, nasty and raw at times. But as of 2012, he hadn't made the McConnell move yet. His baby was New Hampshire, and there Ron came in second.

Horseshit.

Benton screwed the pooch in NH, Ron could have won.

Did win, in the county I pulled dough out of my pocket to advertise his stance on a local issue that could have been the home run to win NH for Ron.

The grassroots energy was told, in no uncertain terms by the NH Benton team, to "pipe down".

I will never forget or forgive.

ETA - And that "pipe down and go away" attitude infected the Rand effort as well.

With predictable results.

Freedom is hated and feared by the vast majority of AmeriKans, the only way to "win" in a conventional contest is to be un-conventional.
 
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After reading why Rubio was doing better in Iowa its clear Rand has very few chances this year.
Its clear the Republicans are a party of war and that wont chance no matter what. They love their wars and love seeing other small countries suffer and die. Its best that we educate the idiots.
 
Horseshit.

Benton screwed the pooch in NH, Ron could have won.

. . . I pulled dough out of my pocket to advertise his stance on a local issue that could have been the home run to win NH for Ron. . .

Freedom is hated and feared by the vast majority of AmeriKans. . .

Love your posts on here, AF. But you're claiming you had the magic bullet to win the presidency, meanwhile it's all hopeless because people don't want to be free, anyway.

Maybe you did! And without question people will choose security over liberty most of the time. Still doesn't conflict with my greater point that it's time we take the liberty movement to the next level. We need to get ourselves a contingent of people who are committed to winning on our ideas.

People with money and a little focus should see that better candidates (at all levels) and better people running/working on their campaigns would drastically improve the chances of all of our outsider candidates. I know that tons of students were brought into Iowa this cycle, and there's good people I know committed there that did everything they could. But if the team was 80% diehard Ron/Rand/Liberty supporters instead of 98% GOP "staffers" 2% diehard Ron/Rand/Liberty supporters, I'd bet my paycheck on a different result, something more like 2012.

Yes Isis, Trump, the media, all that BS, but people didn't suddenly love liberty more in 2012 so much that Ron gets over 20% of the vote in three of the first four states and has the second most delegates at the convention - whereas now they hate their freedom!

Point is, we should just learn an important lesson from this. Maybe something drastic happens in the next week and Rand comes second in New Hampshire. As much as I wish it, I'm not counting on it.

Better candidates. Better staff. Get 3-4 candidates elected at the state level in as many states as possible this year two years from now, the next two years, etc.Along the way I'd bet we'd elect a couple more senators, more congressmen, maybe another governor and maybe recruit a couple good candidates for the big show. My guess is we'd be winning some policy battles along the way. But we need to develop our farm team at the lower levels, and we need competent to excellent people who can run competitive campaigns and provide key services.
 
After reading why Rubio was doing better in Iowa its clear Rand has very few chances this year.
Its clear the Republicans are a party of war and that wont chance no matter what. They love their wars and love seeing other small countries suffer and die. Its best that we educate the idiots.

The whole ISIS thing was a boon to the hawks, though they've had to pivot and push phony middle of the road dove-hawks in order to bamboozle a sizable part of the GOP base. I've been grappling with the best way to educate the so-called idiots, particularly the Christian ones since they are technically "my crowd", though I have little in common with them at present. So far what I've come up with is basically to take a hard line on what I've been studying of the theology of the Scottish Covenanters and their affiliates who first settled in the colonies. According to their original confessions, military service and voting in a non-covenanted country (which the U.S.A. is) is forbidden.

I have zero qualms about telling these people that by sending their own children off to fight godless wars that they are essentially sending them to perdition, though it probably won't stick since their pastors are probably on Uncle Sam's payroll pushing Israel-worship.
 
I do find it odd the OP would not put any of that on Rand himself. Starting with endorsing Romney in 2012 he set off on a path that essentially crushed his chances in 2016. Had he simply followed in his dad's footsteps I'm willing to bet a lot of these people you're talking about would have wanted to be on his staff and help him for free. Because he cozied up to McConnell and played politics with the GOP starting with Romney's endorsement it lead him into an election cycle where he was considered an establishment candidate and that, combined with going after Trump in the first debate, crushed his campaign.

No, I recognize that. I understand why he did both, but I think it totally hurt him with the liberty base, and I never like it either. I think it's a stretch to say he was ever considered an establishment candidate, though.

People can disagree with me all they want but instead of skirting around the ISIS issue said:
Agree totally. I think this was the biggest thing for most of us. And let's END the IRS, not whittle down the tax code. END the damn fed! He never wavered, but the message just became weak. The Trump carnival shows that there are people out there who will cling to a forceful argument, no matter how much sense it makes.

He played it all wrong starting with endorsing Romney and he really should drop out now said:
If he's not winning the nomination, he can't lose his Senate seat. My guess is we'll know by the end of February what his plans are.

He took half measure after half measure and it turned off Ron's supporters and made him seem weak in the eyes of the base he was trying to appeal to. [/QUOTE said:
And made it really hard to get excited about it to. I've been heavily invested in many aspects of this fight since '07. This time I was bored and a little uneasy.
 
Sure enough. Not quantifiable, trackable or targeted... but definitely gives supporters something fun to do. But sign waves won't get your candidate elected in a competitive race.

But this aside, my real point is we need to develop our own group of people who can manage campaigns, do polling, do media, strategy, etc. Reality-based, aggressive and results-oriented political pros who seek to make money advancing libertarian political candidates, issues and ballot measures. This prevents the Rand Paul's, Thomas Massies, etc. from having to dip into the well of conservative ladder-climbers to run their operations and provide the skill sets needed to win competitive races.

This can be done, but it would require seed money and focus. I know there was a PAC started last time that (Liberty for All?) that sought to fund candidates. I know YAL is developing libertarian students and some of those people are getting trained on campaigns and lobbying. So maybe it's already happening. But it needs to not be watered down.

Did you see Ron's speech the day before the caucus? (Paraphrasing) "Remember when we used to talk about ENDING the Federal Reserve? Remember when we used to talk about bringing ALL the troops home right away? Remember when we used to talk about shutting down the IRS, etc?"

Rand's message: Don't bomb without Constitutional authority/3-state solution to Iraq; simplify (with a chainsaw, nonetheless) the tax code; Audit the Fed. Similar. Different.

Beat Ron's and similar drums at the state, federal and local levels for a decade with candidates running competitive campaigns that can get a winning message out and go out and get votes against establishment candidates. Our ideas, put plainly, won't sound so weird then. But we need the key element of effective political pros, consultants, specialists, etc. We need to start while there's still organization in the movement.

Well one huge problem is that the money is not there like it was in 2008, and I mean jobs, money people had in their pockets. I hear it over and over and I have a meetup going right now - I just don't have the time and money I had in 2008. I mean people are 8 years older, some have children, lost their jobs etc...it's not the same dynamics.
 
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