Washington Caucus Twitter Thread Here

[SCOTUSman]

Carlos R. Graterol ‏ @ChuckSRQ Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Small Sample Size (192 Total Votes) but so far I have the #WAcaucus as Paul 47%, Romney 31%, Santorum 18%, Gingrich 4% .22% Precincts Report

woah woah woah

".22% Precincts reported"

So 1/5th of 1%???

 

[RabbitMan]

.22 Thats less than 1%. It means nothing.

Honestly, from what I witnessed. I'd say the margin of error with that sample size is about 5%+-. We stand a good chance of winning. But it could be rough.

 

[Karsten]

.22 Thats less than 1%. It means nothing.

woah woah woah nontheless.

 

[pauliticalfan]

Well, the networks have seemed awfully eager to do this in the past.

FOX: "0.22% of the precincts in and Mitt Romney's winning...time to call it for Romney!"

 

[libertythor]

Caucus results tend to swing wildly from precinct to precinct and county to county. This has been seen in almost every caucus state to date.

The only way a caucus could be called without a majority of the votes being counted is if the precincts are being reported with geographical uniformity, and that rarely happens.

 

[Ronulus]

Well, the networks have seemed awfully eager to do this in the past.

FOX: "0.22% of the precincts in and Mitt Romney's winning...time to call it for Romney!"

Yep but they get 100% of the pull in how the votes are reported.

 

[kathy88]

Michael Maresco ‏ @mkauai Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
More #embarrassment for #GOP - 1500 voters denied their right to vote blogs.mcclatchydc.com/washington/201… #wagop #wacaucus #tcot - If #shenanigans? Expose!



RPH is all over this like white on rice

 

[SCOTUSman]

Well, the networks have seemed awfully eager to do this in the past.

FOX: "0.22% of the precincts in and Mitt Romney's winning...time to call it for Romney!"

*SIGH*

Ever heard of exit polling??? They can make projections based off exit polling. Jesus christ.

 

[digitaldean]

I am seeing twitters posts where Paul comes in first or second the most. And then some where Santorum or Mitt come in second. So as long as we get first or second across the board we should end up winning possibly. We either will come in first or second with Romeny first or second. Frothy is third for sure followed by Newt.

 

[kathy88]

Jacquelyn H ‏ @JacquelynH129 Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Good luck with the WA caucus. We had 2 delegates for you in my precinct! @RonPaul

 

[libertythor]

*SIGH*

Ever heard of exit polling??? They can make projections based off exit polling. Jesus christ.

Exit polling has proven to be wrong in the past, but it is reliable if it shows a large margin.

 

[NoOneButPaul]

Caucus results tend to swing wildly from precinct to precinct and county to county. This has been seen in almost every caucus state to date.

The only way a caucus could be called without a majority of the votes being counted is if the precincts are being reported with geographical uniformity, and that rarely happens.

Another thing i've notice is the Paul people go out and vote earlier than anyone else.

He always ends up in the lead and then loses it late, I think this is in part due to the fact that Paul's REAL supporters (not the jack asses who stay home) are actually really excited to vote for him and show up early.

 

[SCOTUSman]

Honestly, from what I witnessed. I'd say the margin of error with that sample size is about 5%+-. We stand a good chance of winning. But it could be rough.

Based off what? If this is based off one precinct or precincts in one particular area, then it is completely inaccurate. If it is an exit poll from throughout the state, then it is far more accurate. But, localized exit polling means dirt.

 

[RabbitMan]

For sure, but from what I've heard and what I've seen, in the urban areas where it counts, We dominate the 1-3 person precinct caucuses, and the majority of the rest we do medium to well.

 

[SCOTUSman]

Exit polling has proven to be wrong in the past, but it is reliable if it shows a large margin.

Exactly. That is why in close states, they waited to make a call, but Arizona, they called it immediately. Why? Because Romney had a 15%+ lead in the exit polling. Easy call. They have done it like this forever.

IF you remember teh 2008 General, the second the California polls closed, every network declared Obama President-Elect because of exit polling from California showing him up by 25%...easy call.

Now in Michigan, exit polling showed a close 3-5%, so the networks held off until later into the night....until all the Santorum strongholds were counted....when they saw Romney ahead with the Romney strongholds yet to report, they declared it for him.

 

[PolicyReader]

Sure. If you have 1,000 precincts, and Paul carries a third of them by a lot while losing another third by a marginal amount and the other third by a lot, he could still win. It all depends on how the vote splits.

We kind of should hope for a strong third by Santorum in order to split the establishment vote.

Also, it is certain that we will carry a lion's share of the delegates, as evidenced by the precincts where Paul only got 1 out of 8 votes, but that one person became a delegate.


It is a math game, and that is why having an open count is important. Even if you lose a precinct, losing by having 8 votes while the others have 13 and 9 is a lot different from losing a precinct with 3 votes while the others have 16 and 11. A strong showing in a lost precinct compliments a good win in another.

^Yup, this is the way the game is played. There are two math games straw poll and delegate and both of them are about margins as much (more than?) they are about the straight win/loss tally.

 

[libertythor]

They used to call it with a 1 or 2% margin, but that changed after they screwed the pooch in many contests in the 2000 elections. Even discounting the Florida debacle, the anchors had egg on their faces in other states and races. Now they are more careful.

Exactly. That is why in close states, they waited to make a call, but Arizona, they called it immediately. Why? Because Romney had a 15%+ lead in the exit polling. Easy call. They have done it like this forever.

IF you remember teh 2008 General, the second the California polls closed, every network declared Obama President-Elect because of exit polling from California showing him up by 25%...easy call.

Now in Michigan, exit polling showed a close 3-5%, so the networks held off until later into the night....until all the Santorum strongholds were counted....when they saw Romney ahead with the Romney strongholds yet to report, they declared it for him.

 

[RecoveringNeoCon]

CONSERVATIVE VOICE ‏ @Dunnemarogra
Early Tallies from 4 Precints no info where: PAUL 42%, ROMNEY 38%, SANTORUM 18%, GINGRICH 2%. #WAcaucus


NICE!

 

[libertythor]

CONSERVATIVE VOICE ‏ @Dunnemarogra
Early Tallies from 4 Precints no info where: PAUL 42%, ROMNEY 38%, SANTORUM 18%, GINGRICH 2%. #WAcaucus


NICE!

All this says is that we will have a decent showing, but good news is good news.

 

[RecoveringNeoCon]

Alicia Halberg ‏ @halbergx
Older voters chided these young Paul supporters at Spok. caucus for wanting "fringe" candidate #wacaucus @uwelectioneye
pic.twitter.com/gkdzU8BK

LOL