Washington Caucus Results Thread

[Aratus]

tis true... however newt is pure EGO & total churlish stubborn.

 

[Origanalist]

No, Pierce County has 80.1% in. If we stay on top in King, we got this.

As RPit correctly pointed out, King County is not a Rick Santorum kind of place. If Rick wins there something is obviously not right.

 

[Razmear]

Pierce is now 100%, still up by ~200

 

[Keith and stuff]

In NH, there are 10 possible BOUND delegates, Ron Paul got 3. Huntsman got one. Since he dropped out that delegate is UNBOUND. We may get that one. NH is has bound delegates so for the first round we won't have any luck getting others until additional rounds.

The NH delegates for each candidate were handpicked by that candidate's staff. It is very unlikely that any of the Romney delegates in NH will vote for Ron Paul.

 

[parocks]

That's up to 80% now.

Now 100% in Pierce. Santorum picked up 11 votes on Paul from 80 to 100%.

 

[sailingaway]

As RPit correctly pointed out, King County is not a Rick Santorum kind of place. If Rick wins there something is obviously not right.

Spokane's results, as well as two places together shutting about 2000 people out from voting, and them refusing to read the vote aloud, and them destroying any papers and envelopes you brought in, show something is not right.

 

[MozoVote]

As far as refusing to announce votes before the delegates, at least that kind of stuff opens some eyes. Those people need to keep coming back and say "I won't put up with those kinds of tricks, when I serve on a party committee"

 

[ProBlue33]

If the % holds to formula we have second.

 

[JasonM]

Please help me get other Ron Paul supporters to understand how the delegate process works. We keep losing momentum and fund raising because people think we aren't winning even though we are doing pretty darn well on delegate counts.



In some states, yes, that is true. In others that's a bunch of crap. We are probably getting most of the delegates from IA, MN, CO, MA, and WA. In NV, they can vote to unbind the delegates are the state convention, so there is a possibility he could get most of those as well. There is also a strong possibility that he could pick up quite a few from WY.

In IA there are 28 possible delegates. It sounds like the organization was good, so we may get 20 out of there.

In NH, there are 10 possible BOUND delegates, Ron Paul got 3. Huntsman got one. Since he dropped out that delegate is UNBOUND. We may get that one. NH is has bound delegates so for the first round we won't have any luck getting others until additional rounds.

In SC, we didn't get any delegates. Grinch got 23 BOUND delegates. If Grinch drops out soon they become UNBOUND. If Ron Paul supporters are organized they could end up picking up a lot of them.

In FL, we didn't get any and probably wont unless this goes to a brokered convention and at some point they become UNBOUND.

In NV, we got 5 BOUND delegates, but most of the delegates that got selected are Ron Paul supporters. There is a possibility that these selected delegates can vote to change the rules at the state convention to UNBIND all delegates. In this case Ron Paul could pick up most of the delegates. NV has 28 BOUND delegates. If they become UNBOUND at the state convention, we would probably have at least 15 of them.

In CO, it sounds like we got about 50% of the UNBOUND delegates. So we'll probably have 18 of the 36. If Santy drops out, we could get a few more.

In MN, is sounds like we got over 75% of the delegates. So we'll probably get 30 of the 40 UNBOUND delegates.

In Maine, we'll probably get 75% of the delegates. So we'll probably get 18 of the 24 UNBOUND delegates.

AZ is winner take all with bound delegates. We probably won't get any as Romney won the state, unless this goes to a brokered convention and the delegates become UNBOUND. In this case we may get some of them if RP supporters are organized.

In MI, we didn't get any delegates, but there is the possibility that we could pick up the delegates that become UNBOUND if Santy drops out. Santy got 14 delegates. Some of them could go to RP. If it goes to a brokered convention RP could even get some of Romney's.

In WY, Ron Paul got at least 6 of the 29 possible. However, since this is a state with UNBOUND delegates Ron Paul will probably get more than that. Let's say he get's almost half of them, or 14.

In WA, there are 40 UNBOUND delegates. Based on ground reports, Ron Paul will probably get most of the delegates. Let's say he gets 25.

So if no one drops out, IA (20) + NH (3) + SC (0) + FL (0) + NV(15) + CO(18) + MN(30) + ME(18) + MI (0) + AZ(0) + WY(14) + WA(25) = 143

If BOTH Grinch and Santy drop out the delegate scenario could look something like this, assuming Ron Paul supporters were organized in becoming delegates (delegates would become UNBOUND when the candidate they are bound to drops out):

IA (20) + NH (3) + SC (15/23) + FL (0) + NV(20) + CO(18) + MN(30) + ME(18) + MI (10) + AZ(0) + WY(14) + WA(25) = 173

Of course these are just estimates, we won't know for sure until the delegate selection process is complete.

I'm really confused about why people don't understand how the delegates work. What is it that is causing the confusion?

What's causing the confusion is that people think the popular vote actually matters, when actually it's little more than a massive overrated poll. I personally think the popular vote is a distraction from the real vote for delegates, to give people the ILLUSION of thinking they made a difference when actually they don't if they just cast a vote and leave.

People think they're voting for the candidate, when in reality they need to vote SPECIFICALLY for people who will vote for the candidate.

 

[Adam West]

While I risk getting more negative rep I'm going to keep hammering this point home, not because I don't want Ron to win, but because I want people to sit back a bit and look at the bigger picture.

Ron is not in this to win this (I don't care what he says, he'd never admit in a million years this was the case) Ron is in this to build a movement that will unite the GOP and restore freedom to the country.

I admire your outlook, and I support your forward-looking vision. But, I have a revelation. Four years from now the landscape of the World will be upside down. America is being buried. I recently came back from a 3 month business trip to China, and they encourage growth, not stifle it. America has so much potential, but you keep shooting yourselves in the foot. Deciding elections on gayness, abortions, perceived threat, drugs, military intervention? Ron Paul members aside, most Americans are politically incoherant.

 

[Origanalist]

Spokane's results, as well as two places together shutting about 2000 people out from voting, and them refusing to read the vote aloud, and them destroying any papers and envelopes you brought in, show something is not right.

No argument from me, The GOPers have done everything in their power to keep RP out of the running. It must frustrate them to no end that he's not going away.

 

[pauliticalfan]

Only King County left? Time to bring it on home guys!

 

[ProBlue33]

Intrade 95% for second for Ron Paul

 

[MozoVote]

This will be the sixth state where Ron got over 20% in a statewide poll. I know people want to see wins, but this is still much better than 2008 was. Those were some depressing returns to watch.

 

[sailingaway]

No argument from me, The GOPers have done everything in their power to keep RP out of the running. It must frustrate them to no end that he's not going away.

+rep

here's to 'not going away'.

 

[Vanilluxe]

I think I see a little plot here, if the GOP can keep Ron Paul from winning 5 states, they can keep him off the podium in the convention and that goes for Rand as well. No speaking time means no changes from the GOP policy platform. The GOP wants to stay unchanged this election, next election, and other future elections. I doubt the GOP will learn anything and I bet they will probably repeat this mistake in 2016 by nominating Christie, Jindal, or Jeb Bush and they might give Rand the same treatment as Ron.

 

[Ivash]

^I don't think Jeb Bush will run. Jindal and Christie probably will, as will Rubio, maybe Thune, Portman, and a bunch of other Republicans. If Obama wins this election, Republicans will win in 2016, so everyone will come out of the woodwork.

What's causing the confusion is that people think the popular vote actually matters, when actually it's little more than a massive overrated poll. I personally think the popular vote is a distraction from the real vote for delegates, to give people the ILLUSION of thinking they made a difference when actually they don't if they just cast a vote and leave.

People think they're voting for the candidate, when in reality they need to vote SPECIFICALLY for people who will vote for the candidate.

Yeah, no, you are really wrong. It does matter. If a candidate can string together a bunch of victories, then they get momentum (through media narrative and donations) which helps them keep winning (both in general and delegates). Also, after a candidate has picked up enough victories, it becomes extremely likely that other candidates will drop out and support him. Thirdly, there is no way any major party is foolish enough to let a person who clearly won the primaries to lose due to... well, anything, delegates or otherwise. I'd say that it is the delegates which really don't matter (except in the most unlikely of circumstances: a brokered convention where two candidates are extremely close to each other when it comes to primary victories and delegates).

 

[sailingaway]

I think I see a little plot here, if the GOP can keep Ron Paul from winning 5 states, they can keep him off the podium in the convention and that goes for Rand as well. No speaking time means no changes from the GOP policy platform. The GOP wants to stay unchanged this election, next election, and other future elections. I doubt the GOP will learn anything and I bet they will probably repeat this mistake in 2016 by nominating Christie, Jindal, or Jeb Bush and they might give Rand the same treatment as Ron.

We can buy Ron a podium.

 

[GraniteHills]

Updated vote totals, but not % of precincts reporting....

 

[Savvy Jack]

up by 303 votes now 80%