This is just how it worked out for me. I was as lucky on real estate as you were on gold. It depends on when you got in if either would be a good move for somebody else. Buying either gold six months ago when it was $1900 or real estate two years ago at the top of that market would not be as good of a deal- though that remains to be seen how they come out in the long run. My goal was to have a place paid off before I retire (at least a decade and a half away) to lower my expenses. That gives you the same economic benefit as having a pile of money put into some other investment. I get the benefits (lower expenses) and still own the asset as well.
All of this speaks to temporal strategies employed for the greatest return in value as strictly an investment strategy, which, like you said, is "just how it worked" for you (thus far). The equity on your house has outperformed gold thus far (again, just within your investment time span), as housing values continue to have a relatively high floor, despite the housing crisis, and may continue to remain high so long as interest rates remain low and there is at least enough economic activity for people to continue to buy and sell houses.
Remember that you also stated that it was your goal to have a place paid off before you retire, which is at least fifteen years away. That goal, as stated, is not an investment strategy, per se, but a survival/security goal - one that happens to be supported by wise investment.
As of this moment, you have enough equity in your house to be able to liquidate it and purchase a $100k house outright. But let's say that you don't do that. Let's say that your expectation is that you will not lose the net equity you've gained, and that your plan is just to see the mortgage through until your condo is finally paid for.
That all hinges on what can happen at any time within the next fifteen years, so let's look at that in the long term:
1 - The economy will remain more or less stable, with moderate price inflation that will continue to increase your equity position even as dollars become inexorably cheaper.
2 - Abnormally high price inflation or hyperinflation, enabling you to pay off our loan in even cheaper dollars.
That assumes, of course, that a) you are able to adjust your income, and/or b) that the rising cost of other necessities doesn't seriously impact your ability meet your mortgage obligations. However, such a scenario assumes economic instability, as unusually high price inflation also coincides historically with enormous capital flight, as people pour money into commodities, so once again we're back to gold and silver, and whether it will outperform your condo in the long run.
3 - Monetary deflation, or a full-on credit deflationary crash and depression kicks in (even temporarily, prior to hyperinflation) and becomes so acute that two things could happen:
- Your means for acquiring the cash required to pay off your loan no longer exists, and/or
- Housing prices fall even further, eating into your equity by that much.
If you are without income, you might be forced to liquidate other assets, and barring that ability, might lose your condo anyway. Even if you are fortunate enough to retain your own income source, if severe deflation is an economy-wide phenomenon, with enough foreclosures around you, that could most definitely represent a drop in the general floor value real estate to the point of putting you upside down, with negative equity.
Meanwhile, what happens historically to gold and silver during a deflationary depression? It skyrockets, right along with perishable commodities, outperforming everything, even as shortages are revealed. Abnormally high prices will eventually correct as available cash dries up, but very slowly in terms of hard and soft commodities, because that is where all the available cash is being pumped -- into something that is otherwise unavailable even at high prices. So it remains highly liquid, even as prices for everything else, including real estate, continues to fall.
In the long run, a frugal renter who bought PM's could end up being able to buy more than just a condo. It all hinges on what you think is going to happen with the currency, and therefore the economy. I'm betting against both.
