Steven Douglas
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Yep, while many are selling Euros and buying dollars, some dollar holders are dumping dollars and buying silver.
"kuckfeynes" lol - love your name.
Warning Fools! Silver Will Fall by 66%
- Thread starter bobbyw24
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Yep, while many are selling Euros and buying dollars, some dollar holders are dumping dollars and buying silver.
"kuckfeynes" lol - love your name.
Griffin himself says the same thing in his book "Creature". I tried to warn people of this back in 2009, and was met with some very interesting opposing views. Its not that I didn't/don't believe that we will have hyper-inflation, what is a fact is that in the boom and bust cycles there is always a deflationary period before hyper-inflation. That is why we will have tyranny; and that is to "save our dollar". The deflation that we are now entering will be forced on us by the banksters, and will be horrible.
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showth...-Gold-will-plummet-the-dollar-will-strengthen
Dunno why people don't look at the obvious when interested in silver against the USD:
In order for silver to fall to the thread-predicted $16, the USDX would have to rise to around 100.
Of course, there are circumstances that exaggerate the relationship, but how many USD it takes to buy an ounce of silver starts with the USDX. Will it rise to 100? That's the Q. Not in my humble opinion, but that's the fun of it, eh?
Eventually, the USD will be worth nothing. Silver, OTOH, will never be worth nothing.
Bosso
In order for silver to fall to the thread-predicted $16, the USDX would have to rise to around 100.
Of course, there are circumstances that exaggerate the relationship, but how many USD it takes to buy an ounce of silver starts with the USDX. Will it rise to 100? That's the Q. Not in my humble opinion, but that's the fun of it, eh?
Eventually, the USD will be worth nothing. Silver, OTOH, will never be worth nothing.
Bosso
Dunno why people don't look at the obvious when interested in silver against the USD:
In order for silver to fall to the thread-predicted $16, the USDX would have to rise to around 100.
Of course, there are circumstances that exaggerate the relationship, but how many USD it takes to buy an ounce of silver starts with the USDX. Will it rise to 100? That's the Q. Not in my humble opinion, but that's the fun of it, eh?
Eventually, the USD will be worth nothing. Silver, OTOH, will never be worth nothing.
Bosso
Bosso...the problem with people who are broke and holding on to their precious metals is that at some time in the future they need cash to pay their bills. In fact, that is why gold and silver are bearish, because everybody needs cash right now, and you can't survive holding on to gold or silver in one hand, and with a thumb up the ass with the other hand. People have to eat.
Acala
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Anyone who invested the cash they need to live on in gold or silver made a mistake. I have never heard any reputable analyst say otherwise.
Yeah, but what about the suckers who bought gold when it was at $1900 an ounce? Do you feel their pain?
Acala
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Unless they bought at $1900 and sold lower, they have no real pain - only imaginary pain. And the perfect relief for the imaginary pain of a purely paper loss is to stop worrying about it.
If they did, in fact, buy at $1900 and sell at current prices, they are also not following the sound advice I have seen on this forum and coming from wise investors. Unless I missed it, nobody I respect is advising to sell gold or silver now.
This is not rocket surgery. The dollar will inevitably be debased because there is no other way to fill the debt hole other than default. Politicians and banks will not choose default because it will end their scam more quickly. Turning paper dollars that are doomed to be debased into hard assets that have a long history of being useful is a LONG-TERM strategy for preserving wealth.
Short-term trading is beyond my ability and my threshhold of risk. Speculating in commodities in the short term is risky. People who bought gold at $1900 thinking they were going to sell it within a few months at a profit took a risk. They got burned. But not because they followed the advice on this forum.
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Steven Douglas
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^^^ THIS THIS THIS ^^^ +rep
Anyone who bought it short-term with money they couldn't afford to sock away for the long haul, I have some sympathy for some, but no empathy, because it was an INVESTMENT - not a store of wealth. When Gold hits $2,000 and $3,000, and higher eventually - as it inevitably will - it won't be because of pleasure OR pain on the part of the gold itself, regardless how anyone feels. The only "windfall" involved will be the sound of the wind as the value of the currency and derivatives, not the gold that neither represents, plummets.
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Advice on this forum??? You must be joking! If that is the case, what about people who are hoarding gold, and will be thrown in jail for disobeying the new laws that will hit them between the eyes that will outlaw hoarding precious metals? Where will you hide your metals?
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Acala
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I don't have any metal. I converted mine to food production machinery (hammer mill, seed press, diesel engines to run them etc.)and other tools to help me take a productive place in the coming localized economy. I think the time of austerity to come will exceed almost anyone's ability to hoard food or consumable assets. So I invest in tools and skills.
But I think the idea that there will be some nationwide Federal swoop where millions of homes will be invaded and people incarcerated for owning gold is so improbable and logistically difficult as to be laughable. Furthermore, I can't think of any asset that is EASIER to hide than gold. Easier than my tools.
Steven Douglas
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I have metal, but my plan is also very similar, and also deals with food - not on the processing, but localized farming and agricultural end, and how to make that as viral as possible. The metal is partly a hedge, should that means be expropriated or otherwise commandeered, which I think is far more likely from any number of sources.
Acala
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Interesting. I am REALLY interested in small, self-sustaining, grass-fed cow-calf operations.
Steven Douglas
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Me too. Sent you a PM.
What about the suckers who bought a home in CA, FLA, AZ in 2007?
When gold was $1900, my neighbors bought a Cadillac Escalade. If they had bought gold instead, would they be feeling pain vs the SUV, tires, oil changes, registration fees, plates costs, insurance, gasoline, personal tax, etc., etc? When they bought the SUV, did they plan to keep it for 3 months and sell it?
If you asked them about buying that much gold, they would say without hesitation; "I can't afford that!!!", but when you mention that they had no apparent problem finding the means to purchase the SUV, you'll immediately get; "But, you HAVE to have a CAR!!!".
But, let's stick to silver here, since that's the subject of the thread. Silver has outperformed gold 2:1 since the meltdown. Gold is at or above where it should be, silver is 1/2 what it should be against the USD. That means, IMHO, that with a USDX at 80, silver should cost 60USD. If TPTB were making ANY moves to strengthen the USD, I would still hold silver. But, they're doing the opposite, continuing to debase the USD.
My point is a very simple one. While virtually everyone I know has just spent thousands of USD to satisfy the demands of the Christmas obligation and the latest iPad, iPhone, Plasma TV, Premium Cable Package, Dining Out, sucking down booze by the case and really cool shoes... it would be absurd for me to think of them as suffering any pain if they had allocated a percentage of those completely useless expenditures toward silver at $48.
Bosso
Zippyjuan
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I bought my home in CA in 1999. It is still worth more than I paid for it. But there is no way I could have or would have purchased in 2007. I am wary of buying anything which has had a good runup in price- and at $1900 gold had been up a very large amount.
Zippyjuan
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I bought my home in CA in 1999. It is still worth more than I paid for it. But there is no way I could have or would have purchased in 2007. I am wary of buying anything which has had a good runup in price- and at $1900 gold had been up a very large amount.
Take the price you paid for your house and instead purchase gold in 1999 at $280. If you were smart, you'd have sold it at $1900 and bought it back at $1550.
If you bought your home with a mortgage, you also paid interest along with property taxes, insurance and the required maintenance. Counting the actual costs involved, I doubt your home is worth more than you paid for it.
Against the million+ the gold would be worth today, there is no real comparison here.
Bosso
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Ain't that the truth. These kind of people buy high and sell low, so investing isn't really for them in the first place.
Zippyjuan
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Take the price you paid for your house and instead purchase gold in 1999 at $280. If you were smart, you'd have sold it at $1900 and bought it back at $1550.
If you bought your home with a mortgage, you also paid interest along with property taxes, insurance and the required maintenance. Counting the actual costs involved, I doubt your home is worth more than you paid for it.
Against the million+ the gold would be worth today, there is no real comparison here.
Bosso
Is that what you did? Sold all your gold at $1900? Incredible that you knew that would be the top price for the market. In 1999, I was looking at a guaranteed return on buying my home. Consider also that at that time, the price of gold had been falling nearly every year for 20 years. That did not look like a very good investment. Not many people want to invest in something which had such a dismal record.
Buying a home vs renting? When you rent, you are paying interest, property taxes, and required maintanance to- that is going to the person who owns the property owner and is included in your rent- you are paying those costs for them. You are not avoiding those costs. By using the same amount of money (my mortgage plus taxes are actually lower than renting a comparable unit in my area), instead of simply giving that money away to the property owner, I get a piece of that property for myself. Now when do I get my return? I have been saving all along vs the cost of renting and in addition when it is paid for (in just under one year more at the rate I have been pre-paying on the mortgage) my spendable income will jump by nearly 30%- and I get that return for as long as I continue to live here. Guaranteed. I can't get that guarantee from gold or other investments which will go up or down over time. And if I want I can still sell my home so I get a return plus still own the asset. To get the return on gold you have to actually sell it.
In reality, the choice was keep renting or buy a home. It was not buy a home or buy gold- you would still be spending that money either way on renting or home ownership. If you want to buy gold instead of renting, you can't because you still need a place to live. Unless you still live with Mom. That must be from money in addition to any rents or mortgage/interest/maintanance. It is not instead of. You can own a home and buy gold. It is not either or. I took money not going to rent and put it towards the home purchase. I still had to pay that money anyways- might as well get something for it. And by paying it off early (note that this will be in less than even 15 years) I am saving thousands in interest.
I am very happy with my decision.
So let us say I did not purchase a home when I did. I would still have been paying about $1000 a month or so on rent (Southern California beach area). I would not nearly have it paid off and I would not have had that "extra" money "saved" by not buying a home to put into gold. I would still be paying $1000 or more a month and not be facing a 30% increase in disposable income for 2013 and having an asset worth over $200,000. I do not see how I would be better off. But that is how it worked out for me.
If I decide to put more money into gold, can you promise me (and back it up with a guarantee) that gold will once again triple in price? Nobody can.
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