WAKE UP! We are FAR from the great depression!

[emergent order]

Considering our long-term interests as an entire population of individuals is key.
We certainly do need to channel our efforts in concert with the natural principles of the free market.
That will work to prevent another crisis with such magnitude as that which caused the Great Depression, of course. BUT...

I am SICK of everyone acting like we are ALREADY in another Great Depression!
We are FAR from the Great Depression, people, wake up!




Unemployment
was at 25% during the Great Depression.
Now, it is at 6%.

(Unemployment was more than 4 times worse!)



Loan foreclosures
were at 44% during the Great Depression.
Now, they are at 2.75%.

(Foreclosures were 16 times worse!)



Bank Failures
were at 40% during the Great Depression.
Now, they are at 0.2%.

(Bank failures were 200 times worse!)



Acknowledging the fact that we are far from the Great Depression is an expression of respect for what people did actually live through.
We owe it to the people who lived through the real Great Depression. THIS, what we are living through right now, is NOT it, is FAR from it.

Relax. Have goals and live for a cause. But don't forget to live.

 

[Conza88]

You believe the governments inflation numbers too?

How cute.. :o

 

[ihsv]

Curious.

 

[Malakai]

The situation is not the same as the great depression. Similar in some ways but completely different in others.

Banking is a very different animal now than it was at that time as well, so using bank failures as a major indicator isn't so great IMO.

Even the government unemployment number is going to get much higher than 6%.

 

[emergent order]

Increased inflation should INCREASE these numbers!

You believe the governments inflation numbers too?

How cute.. :o

Don't you think decreased purchasing power (due to increased inflation) should consequently INCREASE unemployment and foreclosures?

Consider the long-term effects of decreased purchasing power.

The situation is not the same as the great depression. Similar in some ways but completely different in others.

Banking is a very different animal now than it was at that time as well, so using bank failures as a major indicator isn't so great IMO.

Even the government unemployment number is going to get much higher than 6%.

You're right about our banking system: it is a whole new world in a sense. The more we spend, the more we get to spend, the more we get to spend, the more we get to spend... we treat money being spent (lent) as a true asset, as if it's already been paid back, so we use it to make yet more loans, loans backed by loans that haven't been paid back....

 

[Conza88]

Don't you think decreased purchasing power (due to increased inflation) should consequently INCREASE unemployment and foreclosures?

Consider the long-term effects of decreased purchasing power.

Haha... I have. I'm just not foolish enough to believe the government numbers are the truth.

 

[raiha]

1.2 million people unemployed this year. Not a depression yet but with all that counterfeit money and little manufacturing- whatever happens is not going to be pretty.

 

[emergent order]

Increasing inflation means increasing unemployment, foreclosures, and bank failures.

Haha... I have. I'm just not foolish enough to believe the government numbers are the truth.

The more dollars that are available to purchase products, the less valuable each individual dollar is relative to the product(s) it may go towards purchasing. As more and more dollars are added to the economy at a higher rate than our economic growth, it causes a decrease in the purchasing power (ability to buy products/services) of the people. This point of decreasing purchasing power is the point of inflation.

More inflation results in less purchasing power for the people. Meaning, the people can get less and less for their money, relative to their incomes. (Of all the money they make, they can get less and less with it.) This means businesses will get less business, because people have less money to pay them for their products and/or services. As businesses make less and less money, they must either shrink in size (employees) in order to survive or go out of business altogether. Either option will increase unemployment due to the businesses inability to maintain pay for their current number of employees.

If inflation rates are high enough, purchasing power is decreasing, so foreclosures will increase as a result of people's decreasing ability to pay off mortgages. Since inflation is decreasing people's purchasing power, people will also be less able to pay off bank loans, which will also (along with foreclosures) increase bank failures as that increasingly happens.

---------------------

(The above are a couple of a free market economy's reflexes to inflation on a mass scale; when I say "businesses," I mean businesses on average and in general, of course.)

(Conza, I understand your skepticism, but these numbers do tell us something because the free market principles do still apply, even if the free market itself isn't 100% "free." That's the beauty of the free market concept; it is like its own nature, as its principles are timeless. These numbers do still tell you something about purchasing power.)

Increased inflation consequently increases unemployment, foreclosures, and bank failures.

That's why I posted those numbers: unemployment was 4 times worse in The Depression than it is now, foreclosures were 16 times worse in The Depression than they are now, and bank failures were 200 times worse in The Depression than they are now!

We are nowhere in the vacinity of the Great Depression right now and out of respect for the real depression and those who lived through it, we have no right to act like we are currently facing anything close to The Great Depression. It is delusional, and exposes a sick underlying desire for something catastrophic!

THE PROBLEM, is that the foundation of our economic system is loans that have not been paid back yet. The entire system is a GAMBLE on the fact that the loans WILL be paid back! Guess what, with increased inflation, less and less of them will, and that will "snowball" until an increasing number of banks are failing due to not getting loans paid off, due to the decreasing purchasing power of those who are responsible for paying them off (we, the people). The odds of our gamble are becoming less and less favorable.

 

[Malakai]

You're right about our banking system: it is a whole new world in a sense. The more we spend, the more we get to spend, the more we get to spend, the more we get to spend... we treat money being spent (lent) as a true asset, as if it's already been paid back, so we use it to make yet more loans, loans backed by loans that haven't been paid back....

You're pretty sharp =) Back then they even needed *gasp* some real reserves at the bank! Bloomberg filed a lawsuit with the fed to get them to tell America what collateral they are accepting for overnight bank loans, we can only imagine the king of worthless paper/mortgages/whatever they are accepting for those shiny dollars.

No garuntee there will be a depression of course, but the monetary system is no doubt in serious trouble. With 4-8 years of Obama and a completely united house/senate/presidency, they can do a lot of damage. Like FDR New Deal type stuff is what I'm worried about. The first new deal had a solid economy funding it, something we pretty much completely lack now.

Just the things the new majority have been discussing this last week since the news of blue gov is out is quite scary.

 

[american.swan]

My response is we are not in a depression yet and the government is going to do everything to sustain whatever they can, but I and everyone here knows the depression is coming and it will be much worse then 1932. Might as well live like it already started.

 

[Chase]

According to SGS, the St. Louis Fed Adjusted Monetary Base is now growing at 48.2% per annum. The previous record was 28%, when we were gearing up for WORLD WAR. Get ready -- we're probably going to have hyperinflation.

 

[Conza88]

When money is added to our economy at a higher rate than our economic growth, it causes a decrease in the purchasing power of the people, due to a decreasing value per dollar. This (point of decreasing purchasing power) is the point of inflation.

More inflation results in less purchasing power for the people. Meaning, the people can get less and less for their money, relative to their incomes. (Of all the money they make, they can get less and less with it.) This means businesses will get less business, because people have less money to pay them for their products and/or services. As businesses make less and less money, they must either shrink in size (employees) in order to survive or go out of business altogether. Either option will increase unemployment due to the businesses inability to maintain their current number of employees.

If inflation rates are high enough, purchasing power is decreasing, so foreclosures will increase as a result of people's decreasing ability to pay off loans. Since inflation is decreasing people's ability to pay off the loans, people will also be less able to pay off bank loans, which will increase bank failures as well.

---------------------

(The above a couple of a free market economy's reflexes to inflation on a mass scale; when I say "businesses," I mean businesses on average and in general, of course.)

(Conza, I understand your skepticism, but these numbers do tell us something because the free market principles do still apply, even if the free market itself isn't 100% "free." That's the beauty of the free market concept; it is like its own nature, as its principles are timeless. These numbers do still tell you something about purchasing power.)

Increased inflation consequently increases unemployment, foreclosures, and bank failures.

That's why I posted those numbers: unemployment was 4 times worse in The Depression than it is now, foreclosures were 16 times worse in The Depression than they are now, and bank failures were 200 times worse in The Depression than they are now!

We are nowhere in the vacinity of the Great Depression right now and out of respect for the real depression and those who lived through it, we have no right to act like we are currently facing anything close to The Great Depression. It is delusional, and exposes a sick underlying desire for something catastrophic!

THE PROBLEM, is that the foundation of our economic system is loans that have not been paid back yet. The entire system is a GAMBLE on the fact that the loans WILL be paid back! Guess what, with increased inflation, less and less of them will, and that will "snowball" until an increasing number of banks are failing due to not getting loans paid off, due to decreasing purchasing power by those who are responsible for paying them off.

Ahahahahah... I know all this.

I'm saying the true figures are being suppressed... (they are actually bigger than the government says) same deal with most things, in particular inflation. (CPI) - the bullshit index.

 

[Truth Warrior]

Bernanke: Federal Reserve caused Great Depression
Fed chief says, 'We did it. …very sorry, won't do it again'
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=59405

 

[nobody's_hero]

If the point of this thread was to simply say that things are going to get much worse, then, well, I agree.

 

[freelance]

If the point of this thread was to simply say that things are going to get much worse, then, well, I agree.

Unless the point of the post was to demoralize and to spread disinformation, i.e., info out of context.

 

[moostraks]

Considering our long-term interests as an entire population of individuals is key.
We certainly do need to channel our efforts in concert with the natural principles of the free market.
That will work to prevent another crisis with such magnitude as that which caused the Great Depression, of course. BUT...

I am SICK of everyone acting like we are ALREADY in another Great Depression!
We are FAR from the Great Depression, people, wake up!




Unemployment
was at 25% during the Great Depression.
Now, it is at 6%.

(Unemployment was more than 4 times worse!)



Loan foreclosures
were at 44% during the Great Depression.
Now, they are at 2.75%.

(Foreclosures were 16 times worse!)



Bank Failures
were at 40% during the Great Depression.
Now, they are at 0.2%.

(Bank failures were 200 times worse!)



Acknowledging the fact that we are far from the Great Depression is an expression of respect for what people did actually live through.
We owe it to the people who lived through the real Great Depression. THIS, what we are living through right now, is NOT it, is FAR from it.

Relax. Have goals and live for a cause. But don't forget to live.

“a recession is when you lose your job; a depression is when I lose mine.” Newspaper columnist Sidney J. Harris.

Wow what's it like to live in a glass house and toss stones? Do you really believe the figures that the government posts or do you author them???

Guess I need to go take out a loan so I can help the economy...

 

[Dr.3D]

Anybody else notice the similarity of this thread to the one linked below?

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=163545

 

[Conza88]

Anybody else notice the similarity of this thread to the one linked below?

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=163545

Uh ohhh 19 pages?

lol... *Buckle's up*

 

[ShowMeLiberty]

The real numbers are here: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data

Jobs lost in 2008 (by official numbers): 1.2 million (so far): http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/07/news/economy/jobs_october/?postversion=2008110711

Eight companies spanning several different industries announce nearly 15,000 layoffs in first week of November: http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/07/news/economy/november_layoffs/index.htm

States face unemployment cash crisis: http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/07/news/economy/unemployment_insurance/index.htm?postversion=2008110709

2 more banks go belly-up
Regulators close down Franklin Bank, a Houston bank with $5.1 billion in assets, and Security Pacific Bank of California, with assets of $561 million, raising the tally of failed banks this year to 19: http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/07/news/companies/bank_failure/index.htm

Are we there yet? No, not quite. But the rapid trends noted above combined with the dangerous, foolish steps being taken by both the Fed and the Federal Gov't certainly make Great Depression 2.0 appear to be inevitable.

 

[Fight-n-Mad]

I am SICK of everyone acting like we are ALREADY in another Great Depression!
We are FAR from the Great Depression, people, wake up!

This is 1929. What year are those numbers from?