Virginia

[tsetsefly]

Ive heard nothing on Virginia? Do we have a shot with no one else running? With Santorum and Gingrich voters end up voting for Romney?

Has the campaign focused at all on Virginia?

 

[thoughtomator]

Unfortunately it doesn't seem that there's much of an organization in this state - I'm in the heart of northern VA and the closest RP campaign location is the national headquarters in Springfield. No local/state organization at all. Had I known this would have been the case I would have taken on the job of doing some organization, myself.

The one thing I do see here is a concerted push to get RP people in the delegate slots.

Long story short, a VA win is not likely, so don't get your hopes up. Get out and vote and be heard anyway, and more important, don't stop being involved on the day after - sign up with your local GOP committees and take control of them for the liberty movement.

 

[J. W. Evans]

Well, Gingrich 360, an unofficial grassroots came out for Paul because they see the danger of Romney skipping away with 46 delegates.

But other than that, if you were to turn on the TV, you'd get the impression that VA voters hate themselves because they only have a choice of Romney and Paul.

Hell, one group is even conducting another election across the State with all four candidates alongside the official one.
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showth...n-to-be-held-in-VA-alongside-official-primary.

 

[digitaldean]

How big is the evangelical vote in Virginia? Would most even want to vote for Romeny who is a Mormon? I would think they would lean to Newt/Frothy and so vote Paul in order to not give any more delegates to Mitt. Plus anyone can vote in VA so maybe Paul can also get non-Republican voters too?

 

[thoughtomator]

The key problem with VA is the expansion of the influence of the DC suburban area which is very pro-government and pro-war since an obscene amount of money is made here on those policies. Even the Democrats here are pro-war, and even the Republicans are pro-welfare.

 

[FCArchitect]

would have been nice if the VA GOP asked Romeny and Paul to have a 2 man debate just for VA. I wish Paul was spending more time in VA. If he pulled off a win national he would be seen as the alternate to Romeny and add to that the fact that National polls have Paul beating Oboma would equal a huge surge for Dr. Paul.

 

[tsetsefly]

bump

 

[JorgeStevenson]

Polls haven't been good. I'm from VA, and a RP victory here would be a miracle. Northern Virginia IS the establishment. Literally. Half of the candidates live here (Gingrich, Santorum). You can just imagine how many lobbyists per capita there are out here. Defense contracting is probably the number 1 industry in this area. Smithfield may be headquartered down in Richmond, but the real pork is all in Northern VA.

 

[unknown]

The key problem with VA is the expansion of the influence of the DC suburban area which is very pro-government and pro-war since an obscene amount of money is made here on those policies. The Democrats here are pro-war, and the Republicans are pro-welfare.

Unfortunately, this problem is not just limited to VA.

 

[Jeremy]

If Ron doesn't get 1st place in Virginia, we get 0 delegates.

Since there's only two candidates, it turned into winner take all.

 

[pauliticalfan]

I don't think winning is gonna happen. BUT I think 20-30% is likely, which is a good opportunity to get our popular vote totals up. We could get an extra 100k votes out of Virginia alone.

 

[alucard13mmfmj]

would have been nice if the VA GOP asked Romeny and Paul to have a 2 man debate just for VA. I wish Paul was spending more time in VA. If he pulled off a win national he would be seen as the alternate to Romeny and add to that the fact that National polls have Paul beating Oboma would equal a huge surge for Dr. Paul.

Romney wont debate unless he has to... It would be suicide for Romney to debate Ron lol. With no one else to attack, Ron and Romney would have to go at each other. A 1v1 debate with Ron Paul, regardless of who his opponent is, would be disasterous for the opponent.

 

[ggeezz]

If Ron doesn't get 1st place in Virginia, we get 0 delegates.

Since there's only two candidates, it turned into winner take all.

That's not true. The majority of delegates are awarded to the winner of each congressional district. And the central and western parts of the state are quite different from NoVa.

 

[Warmon]

If Ron doesn't get 1st place in Virginia, we get 0 delegates. Since there's only two candidates, it turned into winner take all.

I am in Virginia too. There seems to be some debate about the winner take all. There are 39 national delegates at stake. 3 for each congressional district for a total of 33 and 6 state delegates. If I'm understanding it correctly, a candidate has to get 15% in each congressional district to get any delegates and if they get > 50%, they take all 3. On the state wide level it works the same way. A candidate has to get 15% statewide to get any of the six, and if they get > 50% statewide, they take all six.

With that and it being a two man race, Ron would have to win an entire congressional district with more than 50% of the vote to get any of the 33 delegates. It is what it is.

 

[Jeremy]

That's not true. The majority of delegates are awarded to the winner of each congressional district. And the central and western parts of the state are quite different from NoVa.

You're right, but it's unlikely that Ron will win a district if he doesn't win the state (imo). His support isn't very geographic-based. Sometimes he does well in rural areas, but this is Virginia, not Maine. So unless it's really close, I can't picture that happening. And each district is WTA as well.

 

[FCArchitect]

Paul should suggest it via a main street media and if Romney declines he will seem weak. Win Win either way.

 

[Trigonx]

here is a little bit of Information on VA efforts

http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/106911.html

As a general rule, any campaign material that finds its way into my mailbox is immediately delivered to my special round file for politicians, otherwise known as the trash. Imagine my surprise this week when I received two items in the mail that I thoroughly enjoyed and appreciated. The first was the very well done and very attractively packaged Endorse Liberty PAC DVD titled "Your 2012 Republican Primary DVD" with the intriguing subtitle "30 % of the people who watch this whole presentation change their votes." I like that it did not name a candidate on the cover -- good marketing to create some curiosity.

The second bit of mail was the super nifty Candidate Comparison Fact Sheet for the state of Virginia, which looks alot like this version but without Gingrich in the mix. This very clear and readable bit of literature was provided by our friends the Revolution PAC. Looking at a direct comparison of Ron Paul and Romney on the issues it is hard to believe any conservative or libertarian-leaning Republican could select the latter. The differences could not be clearer than they are on the RevPac's mailing.

As an amateur collector of Ron Paul-iana, I will keep these wonderful mailings and I am sure they will do some real good out here in Virginia.

Super job, super PACs!!!

 

[PolicyReader]

The one thing I do see here is a concerted push to get RP people in the delegate slots.

This is the part most key

Sadly VA hasn't been a Paul stronghold so even with the split ballot (which would be a total boon in some other states) it's not our best shot.
That being said if our Get Out the Vote effort is strong enough and the majority of Paul supporters can be identified and show up to vote there's upset potential written all over it. The outreach needed for the GOTV effort however isn't cheap in either cash or volunteer hours and sadly both resources have slimmed somewhat as the false MSM meme of Pop (straw) votes mattering more than delegates takes its toll on our ranks. If only Paul supporters understood that the race is what it has been since NH, Paul v Romney. The other two are dong well enough to stay in but they are lagging behind Ron and Willard.

Now is the time for a Push, we can enter the convention with an advantage if we don't buy what the MSM is selling
I'd love a straw poll win to stop the media dogs from yapping, but let's make sure their bark doesn't distract us. Thus far we're still on target

 

[Aratus]

the high weirdness is that ron paul could win all the district delegates save for three,
and if only one congressional district goes 99.9% for gov. mitt romney and he trails
the good doctor by 5 percent in all other congressional districts, mitt could pick up
the thirteen delegates that are statewide and contingent on about 50.1% of the vote.

 

[devil21]

Does anybody know if VA is an open or closed primary? I know a lot of people in VA but Im sure very few are registered Republican.

eta: VA appears to be an OPEN primary according to the Wiki entry on the primaries. If you know anyone in VA please urge them to go vote for Ron Paul on the Republican ballot at their local polling place. Their registration doesn't matter.