Very important Iowa poll will be released tonight at 10 pm est

Looks like it will be disappointing. I just saw a tweet that said the results were Romney 23, Bachmann 22, Cain 10, Gingrich 7, Paul 7, Pawlenty 6, Santorum 4. Whether or not it's legit we'll see.
 
TrueFreedom said:
Looks like it will be disappointing. I just saw a tweet that said the results were Romney 23, Bachmann 22, Cain 10, Gingrich 7, Paul 7, Pawlenty 6, Santorum 4. Whether or not it's legit we'll see.
Click to expand...

Results have been released. I updated the first post with the results.
 
Romney 23%
Bachmann 22%
Cain 10%
Gingrich 7%
Paul 7%
Pawlenty 6%
Santorum 4%

--Margin of error 4.9%, 400 likely Republican caucus-goers.

Looks like we are in a tough fight competing for 3rd place at IOWA. You can kiss 1st or 2nd goodbye.
 
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I can't believe Cain is still at 10%, he was definitely strong after the first debate, but there isn't any buzz around him anymore that I can tell. Especially on twitter.
 
Romney, the national front-runner and a familiar face in Iowa after his 2008 presidential run, attracts support from 23 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers. Bachmann, who will officially kick off her campaign in Iowa on Monday, nearly matches him, with 22 percent.

“She’s up there as a real competitor and a real contender,” said Republican pollster Randy Gutermuth, who is unaffiliated with any of the presidential candidates. “This would indicate that she’s going to be a real player in Iowa.”

Former Godfather’s CEO Herman Cain, who has never held public office but has found a following among tea party supporters, comes in third, with 10 percent.

The other candidates tested register in single digits: former U.S. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and Texas Rep. Ron Paul, 7 percent each; former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, 6 percent; former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, 4 percent; and former Utah Gov. and ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, 2 percent.

Pawlenty has spent 26 days in Iowa during this election cycle, has hired an A-list team of Iowa campaign operatives and was the first major candidate to air television ads in Iowa.
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http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.c...-lead-cain-third-others-find-little-traction/

Dang. Even in MB's announcement window, I expected Ron higher than CAIN, and closer.
 
Maximus said:
I can't believe Cain is still at 10%, he was definitely strong after the first debate, but there isn't any buzz around him anymore that I can tell. Especially on twitter.
Click to expand...

Cain is out campaigning Paul in IOWA he has 25 days spent in IOWA...seriously if Ron wants to win he has to BE in IOWA and NH every week AND not just spending time at 2 events then leaving. He has to be scheduled the entire day when he is in town...that means about 4 events per day.

Does anyone know how many events, Ron did when he was in LA for the SRLC?

Incidentally, here is the last national poll taken:
NATIONAL --------- IOWA
33%- Romney ----- Romney 23%
19%-Bachman ----- Bachmann 22%
10%- Cain -------- Cain 10%
9 - Gringrich ----- Gingrich 7%
7- Paul ------------ Paul 7%
6-Pawlenty ------- Pawlenty 6%
6-Santorum ------ Santorum 4%
2-Huntsman ------ Huntsman 2%

Virtually identical...
 
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I was in NO and to the best of my knowledge he did only his speech at 2 oclock and the meet and greet at 4. he did a mike church interview somewhere in there and probably a few others.
 
XTreat said:
I was in NO and to the best of my knowledge he did only his speech at 2 oclock and the meet and greet at 4. he did a mike church interview somewhere in there and probably a few others.
Click to expand...

Exactly, one speech, one meet & greet, and then interviews...not enough
 
BUSHLIED said:
Romney 23%
Bachmann 22%
Cain 10%
Gingrich 7%
Paul 7%
Pawlenty 6%
Santorum 4%

--Margin of error 4.9%, 400 likely Republican caucus-goers.

Looks like we are in a tough fight competing for 3rd place at IOWA. You can kiss 1st or 2nd goodbye.
Click to expand...

Not true at all. Take a look back to the first Register poll in 2007, and the eventual caucus results:

First 2007 Poll: Romney 29%, Giuliani 16%, McCain 16%, Huckabee < 10%
2008 Caucus: Huckabee 34%, Romney 25%, Thompson 13%, McCain 10%, Paul 10%, Giuliani 3%

Also this, from the Register itself:

Veteran campaign watchers caution that it’s early: Candidates’ fortunes will rise and fall. Indeed, 69 percent of respondents said they could still be persuaded to support a candidate other than their first choice.
Click to expand...
 
Days spent in Iowa:

BUSHLIED said:
Santorum-29
Pawlenty-26
Cain-25
Gringrich-23
Paul-15
Bachmann-12
Click to expand...

Days spent in Iowa per percentage point in the poll:

Bachmann: 0.5
Paul: 2.1
Cain: 2.5
Gingrich: 3.3
Pawlenty: 4.3
Santorum: 7.3
Romney: ??
Huntsman: ??

I see the Register isn't even tracking Gary Johnson, a popular two-term governor....
 
He has to be scheduled the entire day when he is in town...that means about 4 events per day.

That's easier said than done when you don't have a day job which requires you to be in Washgington D.C. a good chunk of the time. Even despite this RP has spent far more time in Iowa than in 2007 and will be back next week as well. For all the visits he's made, he's gotten good bang for his buck.

Visits are important but look, Bachmann has been to Iowa just 12 times is at 22 percent. Santorum has been there 26 times and has four percent. Sometimes people see you enough times and it just confirms that they don't like you.
 
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Badger Paul said:
He has to be scheduled the entire day when he is in town...that means about 4 events per day.

That's easier said than done when you don't have a day job which requires you to be in Washgington D.C. a good chunk of the time. Even despite this RP has spent far more time in Iowa than in 2007 and will be back next week as well. For all the visits he's made, he's gotten good bang for his buck.

Visits are important but look, Bachmann has been to Iowa just 12 times is at 22 percent. Santorum has been there 26 times and has four percent. Sometimes people see you enough times and it just confirms that they don't like you.
Click to expand...


This isn't the case with Ron. He's by far the most misunderstood candidate. Meeting people will only help his cause.
 
Bachmann is a new face which attracts attention. Romney is skipping Iowa for England and he will drop in the polls or at least have a poor showing at the straw poll. Cain is losing steam. Pawlenty is vastly under performing. Gingrich is losing ground and Paul is poised to take 3rd... with 5% margin of error and 7 weeks till the Iowa straw poll a lot can happen.
 
Uriah said:
Bachmann is a new face which attracts attention. Romney is skipping Iowa for England and he will drop in the polls or at least have a poor showing at the straw poll. Cain is losing steam. Pawlenty is vastly under performing. Gingrich is losing ground and Paul is poised to take 3rd... with 5% margin of error and 7 weeks till the Iowa straw poll a lot can happen.
Click to expand...

Everyone keeps saying this. It is speculation. We can't base our campaign on what we think MAY happen. Ron needs to dedicate 6 weeks to campaigning before the Iowa Straw Poll to get a strong result. He needs to be in Iowa the full week right before the poll. He should a county tour hitting all major population centers.
 
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Meeting people will only help his cause.

I agree and he is doing that. But in a field with people who can campaign in Iowa an unlimited amount of times, it does put him at a disadvantage.

You'll see the visits to Iowa ratchet up as soon as Congress winds down for the summer, especially in August.
 
Hmmm...I thought Romney was going to skip the Iowa straw poll:

Romney to Skip Iowa Straw Poll
In his second attempt at the Republican presidential nomination, Mr. Romney is taking a different approach. He is seeking to lower expectations in Iowa — and elsewhere — as he wages his fight in the Republican nominating contest.
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/06/09/romney-to-skip-iowa-straw-poll/

His humility is heart-warming...:rolleyes:
Guess he is just too irresistible to the public...wow...

I do believe these polls are not what they appear...like everything else in government.
 
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