Very important Iowa poll will be released tonight at 10 pm est

[tsai3904]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...nd-what-it-wont/2011/06/23/AGGwMRhH_blog.html

The Register poll, conducted by the esteemed J. Ann Selzer, is widely regarded as the benchmark for where things stand in the Hawkeye State.

The poll was conducted between June 19 and 22 and results will be posted here at 10 pm est: http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/

EDIT: Results released:

Iowa
6/19 - 6/22
400 likely caucus-goers
+/-4.9%

Romney 23%
Bachmann 22%
Cain 10%
Paul 7%
Gingrich 7%
Pawlenty 6%
Santorum 4%
Huntsman 2%

 

[libertybrewcity]

lol, watch them not even include Ron Paul

 

[sailingaway]

Hm.

 

[libertythor]

lol, watch them not even include Ron Paul

I am pretty sure that they will. What probably won't include him will be the articles written about the poll.

 

[Esoteric]

Prediction:

1) Bachmann
2) Pawlenty
3) Cain
4) Romney
5) Paul

 

[trey4sports]

My guess....

Romney 24%

Bachmann 18%

Paul 10%

Pawlenty 9%

Cain 8%

Huntsman 3%

Not Sure 28%

 

[Paul4Prez]

Prediction:

1) Bachmann
2) Pawlenty
3) Cain
4) Romney
5) Paul

Hopefully they will leave out Palin and Perry. Undoubtedly they will leave out Gary Johnson. My prediction:

1) Romney
2) Bachmann
3) Paul
4) Pawlenty
5) Gingrich
6) Cain
7) Santorum
8) Huntsman

 

[sailingaway]

I don't think Romney has been running #1 in Iowa, has he? And I hope they don't leave out Palin. We get a percent or two, but Bachmann gets more, when they take her out.

I don't want to guess, to be honest.

 

[trey4sports]

I don't think Romney has been running #1 in Iowa, has he? And I hope they don't leave out Palin. We get a percent or two, but Bachmann gets more, when they take her out.

I don't want to guess, to be honest.

Yes, Romney has been running first in Iowa, only from name recognition though.

 

[Paul4Prez]

A good disclaimer on the results, from Chris Cillizza at the Washington Post article linked in the opening post:

Moment in time, not a predictor:The biggest mistake people make with any poll is to assume that it’s meant to predict who will eventually win. Campaigns and candidates matter and, particularly in a race that will get the amount of media attention of this caucus race, the state of play will shift multiple times between now and February 2012. Look back at the first caucus poll the Register did — in May 2007 — in the 2008 race. Former North Carolina senator John Edwards led the Democratic field with 27 percent while then Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) and Barack Obama (Ill.) took 20 percent and 19 percent respectively. The numbers in the GOP field from that time are even more illuminating about the changeability of the caucuses: Romney led with 29 percent followed by former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona Sen. John McCain who each took 16 percent. Huckabee didn’t even break double digits.

Too bad none of the media analysts make that point when they want to dismiss Ron Paul's chances.

 

[Cleaner44]

Hopefully they will leave out Palin and Perry. Undoubtedly they will leave out Gary Johnson. My prediction:

1) Romney
2) Bachmann
3) Paul
4) Pawlenty
5) Gingrich
6) Cain
7) Santorum
8) Huntsman

It would be nice if they would leave out Palin. She is not running and has never expressed a will to run that I have seen.

 

[sailingaway]

A good disclaimer on the results, from Chris Cillizza at the Washington Post article linked in the opening post:



Too bad none of the media analysts make that point when they want to dismiss Ron Paul's chances.

Actually, that sort of disclaimer makes it possible Ron's numbers aren't terrible. But who knows. They don't like something about it, I suspect.

 

[Cleaner44]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...nd-what-it-wont/2011/06/23/AGGwMRhH_blog.html



The poll was conducted between June 19 and 22 and results will be posted here at 10 pm est: http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/

Kathie's take on Ron Paul
Ron Paul’s best strategy in Iowa as of may 2011: Ron Paul is positioned to improve on his fifth-place finish in the 2008 caucuses by having a ready-made organization, Campaign for Liberty. But he first has to prove wrong his critics who say he has no chance to grow his base of support. He doesn’t have to win the caucuses, but he needs to beat expectations by cracking into the top three. He needs strong college-student turnout and must bring newcomers into the caucus process.
http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/candidates/ron-paul/


Cracking the top three is very doable.

 

[FreedomProsperityPeace]

I am pretty sure that they will. What probably won't include him will be the articles written about the poll.

Actually, that sort of disclaimer makes it possible Ron's numbers aren't terrible. But who knows. They don't like something about it, I suspect.

+1 to both

 

[BUSHLIED]

Prediction:

I left out Romney and Huntsman

1. Bachman by 3% over Paw double-digits
2. Pawlenty double digits
3. Cain by 1% over Paul
4. Paul
5. Gringrich
6. Santorum

 

[Esoteric]

Hopefully setting the bar low will be cause for a little excitement when he beats our paltry expectations.. one can hope lol

 

[trey4sports]

bump for enthusiasm.

 

[BUSHLIED]

According to http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/data/iowa-caucus/candidate-tracker/

Ron Paul has spent 15 days in Iowa.

Compared to:

Santorum-29
Pawlenty-26
Cain-25
Gringrich-23
Paul-15
Bachmann-12

 

[TheTyke]

According to http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/data/iowa-caucus/candidate-tracker/

Ron Paul has spent 15 days in Iowa.

Compared to:

Santorum-29
Pawlenty-26
Cain-25
Gringrich-23
Paul-15
Bachmann-12

Ack! Hate to say it, but we need to visit IA more.... and we already have more than last time!

 

[Napoleon's Shadow]

According to http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/data/iowa-caucus/candidate-tracker/

Ron Paul has spent 15 days in Iowa.

Compared to:

Santorum-29
Pawlenty-26
Cain-25
Gringrich-23
Paul-15
Bachmann-12

That may be true, but Gingrich isn't competing in the straw poll, Bachmann just started out, no one knows who Santorum is etc... I still say we've got a good shot.