Trump's lacking organization in Iowa!

derek4ever

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h t t p://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/20/us/politics/donald-trump-campaign-lags-in-mobilizing-iowa-caucus-voters.html?_r=0


Mr. Trump’s greatest organizing asset is a database of thousands of email addresses of Iowans who have attended packed rallies. Yet it appears that organizers have only recently begun tapping that database, which a Democratic strategist in Iowa called “malpractice.”
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Mr. Trump has about 15 paid Iowa staff members, compared with 36 working for a “super PAC“ supporting Ben Carson that is organizing in his behalf in Iowa. Asked where Carson supporters have canvassed in Iowa, Tina Goff, who is directing the troops, said, “Where haven’t we canvassed?”

The campaign of Mr. Cruz opened a 48-bed dormitory in Des Moines this month, nicknamed Camp Cruz, for what it says will be 500 volunteers from out of state. They will knock on doors and make calls to potential supporters, who are identified by microtargeting software.
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Of eight people interviewed at a Trump rally in Waterloo in early October, all gave the Trump campaign their emails. Contacted recently by a reporter, four of the eight said they had not received any follow-up. The others received a mass email asking them to volunteer for Mr. Trump, but they were uninterested. Russell Hotchkiss said he was too busy with a 1-year-old and a small business to be a political activist. Judy Cruze, a nurse, deleted the campaign’s emails and has no intention of caucusing for anyone.

The Trump campaign hopes to attract a surge of independents and disaffected Democrats on caucus night, but the latest data from the Iowa secretary of state show no significant growth in Republican registrations.


I think this is great news for us in iowa! It's all about organization! If we can ser a great result, something like cruz winning and rand runner-up or vice versa, it means we can break trump! Don't you guys know iowa doesn't care about your money but your ground game! :)
 
Paul, Carson, Cruz have had people entrenched in Iowa for several years now. Cruz and Trump campaigns did poach some of them from the Walker campaign. The other campaigns have found themselves a bit late to the party, the ad inventory for January and February has been bought out since June or July.
 
Paul, Carson, Cruz have had people entrenched in Iowa for several years now. Cruz and Trump campaigns did poach some of them from the Walker campaign. The other campaigns have found themselves a bit late to the party, the ad inventory for January and February has been bought out since June or July.

Maybe the Rand Paul campaign should sell some ad-space to Trumps campaign for an exorbitant sum of money. If he falls for it Rand could tout he's a better negotiator than Trump.

/joke.
 
Trump doesn't need to pay anything for ads, he's got all the major outlets plugging him for free.
 
We cannot continue to pretend like a popular vote win doesn't matter. I guess we haven't learned jack from the last two times.
 
Who needs organization when you are a reality tv start and the media reports on every time you break wind?
 
We cannot continue to pretend like a popular vote win doesn't matter. I guess we haven't learned jack from the last two times.

He will definitely have to win the popular vote in some of the winner-take-all primary states down the stretch. In most of the proportional states, he will have to get at least the minimum required for allocation to keep a single candidate from controlling the delegations across multiple states. Chances for that get very slim if he doesn't get top 3 in Iowa and win Nevada outright. NH is going to be very tough for Rand, just about everyone except Carson and Cruz is going hard for NH.
 
He will definitely have to win the popular vote in some of the winner-take-all primary states down the stretch. In most of the proportional states, he will have to get at least the minimum required for allocation to keep a single candidate from controlling the delegations across multiple states. Chances for that get very slim if he doesn't get top 3 in Iowa and win Nevada outright. NH is going to be very tough for Rand, just about everyone except Carson and Cruz is going hard for NH.

Rand isn't like the other candidates. He doesn't get nearly as many favors from the estalbishment as them. If he can't get a decent number of delegates in Iowa and New Hampshire. And not at least finish worse than second in both states in the popular vote, he will not be able to win more popular votes "down the stretch". Any perception of weakness, however small it will be, will be amplified one hundredfold by the media.

The consensus on this forum seems to have changed the closer we're getting to Iowa too. We went from "we really need to do well in Iowa" to "it's still 3 months away" to "we need good organisation to get as many delegates as we can". This is very telling.
 
Rand isn't like the other candidates. He doesn't get nearly as many favors from the estalbishment as them. If he can't get a decent number of delegates in Iowa and New Hampshire. And not at least finish worse than second in both states in the popular vote, he will not be able to win more popular votes "down the stretch". Any perception of weakness, however small it will be, will be amplified one hundredfold by the media.

The consensus on this forum seems to have changed the closer we're getting to Iowa too. We went from "we really need to do well in Iowa" to "it's still 3 months away" to "we need good organisation to get as many delegates as we can". This is very telling.

I can say I accept and ultimately support whatever the campaign decides to do, but I don't believe a delegate strategy like Ron 2012 would get them anything more at the RNC than what Ron got. the whole reason for that campaign was to lay the groundwork for a more mainstream campaign for Rand 2016, meaning they've got to run the TV ads and be competitive in the beauty contests, and campaign in more than just the caucus states. But the most important thing that came from Ron 2012, we know how to win Iowa and Nevada in ways none of the other campaigns are able to do. Iowa would have been tough if Walker and Carson didn't crash and burn, but now it's wide open. The only thing really missing now is the money, and I believe that will come with a good showing in Iowa and NV. I'm not very optimistic about SC, and NH will depend on who is still in the race. I'd like to see what this campaign can do with the kind of money Carson was getting after that 2nd debate. Team Carson blew through that in a matter of weeks with little to show for it.
 
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This.

Voting and especially caucusing is a pretty demanding thing for a lot of people.

People are such dolts. It's not even so much that they couldn't be bothered to caucus, but that the 60K that voted for Santorum/Romney probably didn't even know what they were really participating in. "I voted for Santorum, yippee Santorum won! It's over now."

They had no clue.
 
I remember a lot of those states, especially Iowa, people were coming back and posting how there were no one but Paul supporters hanging around the precincts after voting.
 
Ground game is gold for the campaign! This will push rand into top tier in caucus states. The proportional primaries should be good for rand too, especially if the threshold needed is low. The winner take all states will be a challenge but if rand knows where to go, he could pick up congressional districts in those states like wisconsin, california or ohio. Florida, sadly, went full blown WTA, so 1candidate will get the whole prize. But in a state like sc, where it's WTA by district and statewide, rand could have the potential to pick up a district or 2. :)
 
Some of the "negatives" on RPF keep touting Trump as inevitable but one look at his organization and low information base of supporters can easily make a general assumption that it would be difficult to turn out his "base".
 
Ground game is gold for the campaign! This will push rand into top tier in caucus states. The proportional primaries should be good for rand too, especially if the threshold needed is low. The winner take all states will be a challenge but if rand knows where to go, he could pick up congressional districts in those states like wisconsin, california or ohio. Florida, sadly, went full blown WTA, so 1candidate will get the whole prize. But in a state like sc, where it's WTA by district and statewide, rand could have the potential to pick up a district or 2. :)

Especially with the SC endorsements Mick Mulvaney and Mark Sanford. Hopefully Jeff Duncan, Trey Gowdy, and Tim Scott too.
 
Especially with the SC endorsements Mick Mulvaney and Mark Sanford. Hopefully Jeff Duncan, Trey Gowdy, and Tim Scott too.

Thanks for that reminder! SC will be interesting! Before the end of the year, i predict rand will place in the top 3 in iowa and new hampshire when it counts, although NH will be a tough cookie more than ia but here's to hoping! :)
 
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