Third, these experts note, it’s possible that Trump’s returns might reveal that he isn’t quite as rich as he likes to claim he is.
“I’m leaning towards the idea that he’s income poor but asset rich,” Willens says. “The tax returns wouldn’t convey that. They would only convey the shortage of income without conveying the other side of the coin, his real estate holdings.”
If there is one thing we know about Trump at this point, it is that he values being seen as a winner above all else. Trump may believe that if he is perceived as a loser (relative to his self-inflating boasts, that is), it could dramatically undercut what he believes is a winning argument for the presidency — i.e., that he is the greatest winner ever, and therefore can make America a bigger winner than it’s ever been before.
Whatever the motive here, what Trump is doing may be unprecedented in one important respect. The tradition of presidential candidates releasing their tax returns dates back to Richard Nixon. As Philip Bump documents today, Nixon released his tax returns while president, even though he was under audit. Thus, Trump — who had previously said he would not release his returns until an ongoing audit is complete, and is now suggesting he may not release them at all — is not even willing to do what Nixon did.
Worse, as Thorndike points out, Trump may well decline to release them, even though he is likely to have far more complex returns than Nixon did. “It’s disturbing,” Thorndike says. “Complexity can hide a multitude of sins. There’s going to be a lot going on in those returns, even if it is all legitimate. But we have no way of knowing whether it’s legitimate unless we can actually see them.”
Of course, Trump has broken a whole string of political rules during this campaign, so maybe he’ll get away with this one, too.