As Trump pushes to unseat Massie, why have no challengers entered the race?
https://www.cincinnati.com/story/ne...-gop-primary-challenger-congress/86306535007/
{Hannah Pinski | 23 September 2025}
President Donald Trump is serious about ousting Republican U.S. Rep. Thomas Massie.
He vowed to lead the charge after
Massie first voted against Trump's massive spending and policy bill in May. Two of his key political advisors
launched a super PAC dedicated to defeating Massie in June. And he reiterated his call
for someone to run against Massie in July.
One thing Trump is still missing months later? The "wonderful American Patriot" who will do the job for him.
In an interview with The Courier Journal, Massie speculated that's because Trump and his team are realizing it's a harder probelm than they thought — and there's a reason why.
"They're proposing to these candidates to do something they've never actually done before," Massie said. "They've taken out incumbents, but those were incumbents who weren't very conservative and voted against Trump on the impeachment measure. Well, I'm a conservative, popular incumbent."
Kentucky's 4th Congressional District, which Massie has represented since 2012, also presents a unique situation: The Northern Kentucky region supports both Trump and Massie — and Trump's endorsement alone may not be enough to unseat the incumbent.
The two have had a contentious relationship since Trump's first term. But Massie's
recent opposition to the "One, Big, Beautiful Bill" and Trump's decision to strike nuclear facilities in Iran, along with his push for the federal government
to release all files on convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, have added fuel to the fire.
As Massie's profile continues to rise and Trump lacks a challenger to face him, the question now becomes whether Massie has become unbeatable.
The answer? It depends on who you ask.
Why Trump faces an uphill battle in unseating Massie
Stephen Voss, a political scientist at the University of Kentucky, called the circumstances in Kentucky's 4th Congressional District a "rare situation."
He said it's uncommon for Congress members to face significant primary challengers, which means there is little data about when these challenges succeed or fail.
"A lot of Republican voters in Massie's district are going to be willing to consider an alternative to Massie because of Donald Trump's spats with Massie," Voss said. "But just because you're not fully happy with your member of Congress doesn't mean you end up willing to vote for someone else."
Massie easily won the last three primaries during his election cycles, but none of his opponents had Trump's support.
Voss said while Trump's endorsement solves some problems that often keep a challenger from being taken seriously, including name recognition and campaign fundraising, anyone who enters the race against Massie could still face obstacles.
"Even after you get past those barriers, there's still the question of 'do the voters like the beliefs of the challenger more than they like the beliefs of who they already have?'" Voss said. "So Massie's challenger would need to be able to successfully differentiate herself or himself, which may be easy to do given the clashes with Trump, but they'd still need the money to let people know 'here's why you might like me better than who you have.'"
Massie, meanwhile, said whoever joins the race will have to try to convince voters that he isn't conservative, an argument he says is false.
"If they have any political awareness at all, they know I am a conservative, so they have to take the challenge under the pretense that they're going to be able to sell the voters a lie," Massie said.
Massie has caught the attention of major political players besides Trump. In July, tech billionaire and former Trump ally Elon Musk hinted at potentially getting involved with and donating to Massie's campaign.
When asked if he has spoken with Musk about that possibility, Massie said, "We don't want this to become a proxy war between Donald Trump and Elon Musk," though "I do believe based on interactions between (Musk's) people and my people, he will engage in this race at some point."
"I'm not actually opposed to Donald Trump," he added. "I support most of what he does, outside of being against me in this race."
In Kentucky, Republican U.S. Sen.
Rand Paul has also spoken in support of Massie and said he plans to endorse him in the 2026 race. Paul and Massie are scheduled to make several campaign stops in Massie's district on Sept. 24 and 25.
Who is being considered to run against Massie?
State
Sen. Aaron Reed's name has been circulated as a potential contender for several months. In July, he told The Courier Journal he didn't have plans to run and expected to make a decision "when God tells (him)."
More recently, former Kentucky attorney general and 2026 U.S. Senate candidate Daniel Cameron was pitched as a candidate in a
POLITICO opinion article.
Cameron's consulting team has denied that possibility in posts on X. But if either he or Reed decided to run, Massie said he thinks he could beat them.
"If the race were today, I would beat either of them, according to the polling that I've done," Massie said. "But I don't think either of those two are going to run."
State Rep. TJ Roberts, who lives in Massie's district and plans on voting for him, said he doesn't see a viable path to unseat Massie.
"No one agrees with anyone 100% of the time," Roberts said. "Ultimately, people have disagreed with Thomas in the past ... (but) when he's explaining his votes, even if you don't agree with him at the end of the day on any specified vote, people tend to respect it."
Other Republicans, however, think it is possible for Massie to lose his primary. Political analyst Tres Watson called Reed a "very attractive candidate" patly because his hometown lies in Shelby County.
While Northern Kentucky counties, including Boone and Kenton, are some of the most populous in the district, Watson said Shelby and Oldham counties have had higher voter turnouts in past primaries.
In May 2024, 27.6% of Republicans in Shelby County and 15.3% of Republicans in Oldham County voted in the primary election, according to Kentucky Secretary of State data. Meanwhile, 18.9% of Boone County Republicans and 14.3% of Kenton County Republicans voted in the election.
"I've always believed that if you're going to challenge Thomas Massie, the easiest way to do it would not be to come out of Northern Kentucky," Watson said. "The easiest way to beat Thomas Massie, I believe, would be to come out of Shelby or Oldham county because it's a similar population base to Northern Kentucky, but the turnout is much higher in primaries."
Watson also noted that a Trump endorsement automatically makes the 4th congressional district race a competitive primary — though how close it will be is still up in the air.
"The question to whether or not it's close depends on how the campaign unfolds," Watson said. "How the candidate works ... and if any of the messaging hits home. But I think competitive as far as it will be highly contested? Absolutely."
Thomas Massie: 27-9 (+18)
Trump: 50-50 (=)
DeSantis: 44-48 (-4)
