The Dollar Hasn't Bounced
James Turk
Founder of GoldMoney
I first presented the following chart with its downward pointing arrow in my alert on November 11, 2007, and made the following observation. "When taken together, the eerie calm as the dollar collapses and the arrow in the above chart pointing to the building downside momentum suggest that the dollar is nowhere near its final low."
I drew the downward pointing arrow back then purposefully. All the signs indicated to me that years of dollar mismanagement were finally taking its toll. I concluded that the dollar was heading for a major collapse that would culminate in a currency crisis by this summer, which is the time frame indicated by the arrow.
Anyone who has read these alerts or the book I co-authored with John Rubino knows that I am expecting a total collapse in the dollar. As I have said many times, the dollar is on the road to the fiat currency graveyard. But the question I am always asked is when will it get there? When will it collapse? The answer is in the above chart – this summer.
The dollar of course has been collapsing for years. Inflation has eroded its purchasing power, and inferior assets on bank balance sheets have debased its quality. What's more, rather than being left unfettered as a neutral tool for use in global commerce by one and all – which is the role required of the world's reserve currency – U.S. politicians have turned the dollar into an imperial weapon to extend their influence, further undermining its usefulness as currency. So it is not surprising that the Dollar Index has declined 41% from its peak on July 5, 2001, nor is what is happening now a surprise. Maybe I should say what isn't happening now. The dollar hasn't bounced.
We can see on the above chart the dollar's steep drop from December 20, 2007 to March 17, 2008. Under intense selling pressure, the dollar fell on 40 of these 60 trading days from 77.79 to its record low of 71.46. That 8.1% drop equates to a breathtaking 50% annual rate of decline. After a drop like that, one would expect a bounce in normal circumstances, just like the dollar bounced after the other huge drops that we can see on the chart. But it didn't happen. Why not?
One can only conclude that these are not normal circumstances. In other words, I think we have reached the 'tipping point'.
More people want out of the dollar than those who are willing to hold it. The final collapse of the dollar begins now. It will I expect play out over the next three to six months, culminating in a major dollar crisis.
I have been waiting for two events in particular to signal that the final collapse of the dollar had begun. One was for the Dollar Index to make a new record low by breaking below 78.30, which it did just a few weeks before I drew the arrow in the above chart last November. The other event was for gold to break above $1,000, which I anticipated would happen this year. Gold did briefly break above $1,000 last month before being beaten back down below that much-watched level by the gold cartel. I recommend reading the article in the current issue of Investor's Digest by John Embry of Sprott Asset Management describing this brief encounter with $1,000.
So the gold cartel once again 'circled the wagons', just like it has done for years at other critical price levels. It temporarily put a lid on gold, thereby keeping it from rising in order to blunt gold's signal that severe problems with the dollar are building. This activity by the gold cartel will be a major topic in next week's conference sponsored by the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee. GATA's international press release announcing this important conference can be found at the following link:
http://www.gata.org/node/6226. Extensive documentation about government intervention in the gold market is available free on GATA's website.
Regardless of these recent price capping activities by the gold cartel, there is an important message about recent events embedded in the price action of the above chart. Despite all the central bank intervention, despite the repeated declaration of the so-called "strong dollar" policy, despite all the maneuvering by the Federal Reserve to remove inferior assets off over-leveraged bank balance sheets, despite all the tough talk about being vigilant to "fight inflation", the dollar hasn't bounced. None of these things have helped strengthen the dollar's exchange rate to the world's other major currencies. To me that means the front gate of the fiat currency graveyard is wide open, and the grim reaper is waiting for the dollar to enter on the next new low in the Dollar Index. When that happens, it won't take long for gold and silver to climb back above $1,000 and $20 – and this time stay there.
