Ozwest
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- Aug 14, 2007
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- 7,898
I fear you are correct in using Hunter S. Thompsons quote.
All more the pity, as there are many fine and committed young people who work tirelessly for Dr. Paul.
What next America?
The worst part is: the phone polls were right
- Thread starter Pete Kay
- Start date
I fear you are correct in using Hunter S. Thompsons quote.
All more the pity, as there are many fine and committed young people who work tirelessly for Dr. Paul.
What next America?
Man from La Mancha
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- Jun 7, 2007
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- 4,007
Yea 48 states with 100% computer controlled vote counting. Better concentrate on paper voting now.
.
Marc Scott Emery
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- May 30, 2007
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The Good & The Bad
The good,
Ron Paul's iowa vote was the top end of the polling, 10% tonight is equal to the Zogby poll of Jan. 2, that was the only double digit Iowa polling that Paul ever got, so his vote peaked at the right time, it just didn't resonate in a state where 60% of Republicans refer to themselves as Evangelicals. 10% was good enough for Iowa.
It won't be enough for New Hampshire but Paul is only polling 6 - 9% in NH, same as Iowa polled for Paul a few weeks back, or even last week. So the prospect of 5th or 6th place in New Hampshire, supposedly Paul's best shot, is likely at this time, and thats not good.
Ron Paul needs to be fourth or third in New Hampshire, not 6th, which is a real statistical possibility, and fifth below 10% will be very negative too.
So Iowa today is OK, but Obama stole alot of the young idealists in Iowa and got them on his side, and thats likely to happen in New Hampshire. If Obama gets momentum, our young people may defect in New Hampshire, thats my fear, to him.
Any thoughts?
The good,
Ron Paul's iowa vote was the top end of the polling, 10% tonight is equal to the Zogby poll of Jan. 2, that was the only double digit Iowa polling that Paul ever got, so his vote peaked at the right time, it just didn't resonate in a state where 60% of Republicans refer to themselves as Evangelicals. 10% was good enough for Iowa.
It won't be enough for New Hampshire but Paul is only polling 6 - 9% in NH, same as Iowa polled for Paul a few weeks back, or even last week. So the prospect of 5th or 6th place in New Hampshire, supposedly Paul's best shot, is likely at this time, and thats not good.
Ron Paul needs to be fourth or third in New Hampshire, not 6th, which is a real statistical possibility, and fifth below 10% will be very negative too.
So Iowa today is OK, but Obama stole alot of the young idealists in Iowa and got them on his side, and thats likely to happen in New Hampshire. If Obama gets momentum, our young people may defect in New Hampshire, thats my fear, to him.
Any thoughts?
internetsurfer
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- Dec 24, 2007
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- 37
Good Poll Info
If you look at what the pollsters predicted for Paul in IA (7%) and compare it to what he's got now (11%), that's an underestimation by the polls of 60%. So for Paul, his poll numbers change: a 10 becomes 16, a 20 becomes 32, and so on.
Who knows really! This stuff (polling) seems dubious.
Also, goto http://www.ronpaulgraphs.com/donors.html and look at what each state donates to RP. New Hampshire RP supporters donate over twice that of Paul supporters in Iowa.
If you look at what the pollsters predicted for Paul in IA (7%) and compare it to what he's got now (11%), that's an underestimation by the polls of 60%. So for Paul, his poll numbers change: a 10 becomes 16, a 20 becomes 32, and so on.
Who knows really! This stuff (polling) seems dubious.
Also, goto http://www.ronpaulgraphs.com/donors.html and look at what each state donates to RP. New Hampshire RP supporters donate over twice that of Paul supporters in Iowa.
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