The reality in Iowa

[malibu]

You guys are too optimistic, 3rd place is highly unlikely... 4th place maybe but 5th place sounds right.

That idea only comes from the media impression - and by relying on all the polls taken of a few hundred people.

The only two still in the contest that were ahead of RP in the Ames straw poll were Willard and Huckleberry -
and Iowa State students were recently 27 % for Ron Paul with Romney in second.

but 90,000 or so GOP voters finally get to vote Thursday night -
and those
15,000 Iowa libertarians are getting ready by warming their mittens in front of the fireplace tonight.

That would be potentially 17 % of the vote - and with nobody getting 30 % . . .

And Ron Paul won the CNN American Morning's "coffee bean caucus" on air from an Iowa City diner this morning -
although most coffee beans were of dems supporting Obama -
THAT sounds about right on this side of the state.

 

[skinzterpswizfan]

That idea only comes from the media impression - and by relying on all the polls taken of a few hundred people.

The only two still in the contest that were ahead of RP in the Ames straw poll were Willard and Huckleberry -
and Iowa State students were recently 27 % for Ron Paul with Romney in second.

but 90,000 or so GOP voters finally get to vote Thursday night -
and those
15,000 Iowa libertarians are getting ready by warming their mittens in front of the fireplace tonight.

That would be potentially 17 % of the vote - and with nobody getting 30 % . . .

And Ron Paul won the CNN American Morning's "coffee bean caucus" on air from an Iowa City diner this morning -
although most coffee beans were of dems supporting Obama -
THAT sounds about right on this side of the state.

There are really 15,000 Iowa libertarians? Hopefully we can get them all out to vote. That would guarantee a good finish for Paul.

 

[acroso]

yes

Where does that 15K number come from?

 

[ARealConservative]

but some people in some states are way more misinformed, Iowa is one of those states...

This is absurd.

Based on the electoral college alone, I think a whole slew of states are more deserving of this critique.

 

[malibu]

Where does that 15K number come from?

from the over 15,000 Iowa libertarians who voted for the Libertarian US Senate candidate in 2004.

 

[cero]

from the over 15,000 Iowa libertarians who voted for the Libertarian US Senate candidate in 2004.

Damn I soo hope they get out and vote

 

[John P Slevin]

Libertarians are no more inclined to caucus than other parties.

That figure is way off.

Boots on the ground wins Iowa.

For those fearing a 4th or 5th place Ron Paul showing would be a crusher, understand this, Iowa typically doesn't back winners.

 

[malibu]

Libertarians are no more inclined to caucus than other parties.

That figure is way off.

Totally wrong

that libertarian Senate candidate was among the crowd at Ron Paul's first Univesrsity of Iowa visit in April -
She received 15,218 votes in 2004.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G04/IA.phtml

 

[ARealConservative]

bump

- just to say this is what are campaign earned.

The grassroots did it all. Ron Paul didn't visit the area enough to win.

I'm not ashamed of 10% considering the quality of ads produced, the lack of visits outside of Des Moines, etc, etc.

I didn't think McCain or Thompson would get this kind of traction though.