The Litepresence Report on Cryptocurrency

[RonPaulIsGreat]

I'm overall bullish now, It seems segregated witness proposal has near universal support, which will increase transaction capacity like 4 fold, and resolve transaction malleability( or some forms, can't remember) and make it possible for "partial" full nodes(reduced storage). So, sometime in 2016 it's very likely we'll see it implemented.

That has nothing much to do with day trading other than people like me, which stopped buying because of uncertainty over the blocksize debate will feel okay buying again.

Also in the next version they improved a portion of the code 7 fold that has to do with verifying transactions, which was a bottle neck for miners, and people doing an initial blockchain download. So, user experience should be better, and miner concerns around that portion should be gone.

 

[presence]

http://i.imgur.com/MyF76MU.png

[h=1]Wash trade[/h]

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


A wash trade is a form of market manipulation in which an investor simultaneously sells and buys the same financial instruments. This may be done for a number of reasons:

• To artificially increase trading volume, giving the impression that the instrument is more in demand than it actually is.[SUP][/SUP]

• To generate commission fees to brokers in order to compensate them for something that cannot be openly paid for.

 

[presence]

i would like to see consolidation. however i am open to the mirror pattern being talked about so much. it seems too easy for me, but maybe that is what they want........the path of least resistance.

I think cappuccino grande is still a very real possibility.


We're currently holding.

I'm concerned about how bots and institutions will react to the impending 12h 60/90 bear cross.

off hand... I can't say I know of another instance where they crossed bear while 12h 60 was rising; and all other indications were "green dragon". I did run that logic against my Honey Badger...

if stock is 4232X BTC since Dec 2011; allowing it to hold the bear cross if 60 is rising reduces ROI to 4018X


here's btce where 60 and 90 look like they will NOT cross bear

here's huobi where it has already happened

A quick algo that buys and sells the 12h 60/90 cross:

PAIR = info.primary_pair
def tick():

    if data[PAIR].ma(60) > data[PAIR].ma(90):
        if portfolio.usd > 1:
            buy(PAIR)
    else:
        if portfolio.btc > 1:
            sell(PAIR)

[2011-12-17 23:00:00] Found existing storage containing 0 keys.
[2011-12-18 23:00:00] BUY: 3154.57413249 BTC (at 3.17 USD)
[2012-02-12 23:00:00] SELL: 3148.26498423 BTC (at 5.398 USD)
[2012-03-27 00:00:00] BUY: 3861.64519947 BTC (at 4.392 USD)
[2012-04-18 00:00:00] SELL: 3853.92190907 BTC (at 4.967 USD)
[2012-04-21 12:00:00] BUY: 3708.10272945 BTC (at 5.152 USD)
[2012-05-26 00:00:00] SELL: 3700.68652399 BTC (at 5.01 USD)
[2012-06-05 00:00:00] BUY: 3513.07359146 BTC (at 5.267 USD)
[2012-09-14 12:00:00] SELL: 3506.04744428 BTC (at 11.398 USD)
[2012-09-24 12:00:00] BUY: 3407.26227359 BTC (at 11.705 USD)
[2012-10-27 00:00:00] SELL: 3400.44774904 BTC (at 9.382 USD)
[2012-11-28 23:00:00] BUY: 2642.25682821 BTC (at 12.05 USD)
[2013-05-10 00:00:00] SELL: 2636.97231455 BTC (at 108.78 USD)
[2013-05-22 12:00:00] BUY: 2461.76464394 BTC (at 116.289 USD)
[2013-05-30 12:00:00] SELL: 2456.84111465 BTC (at 128.68 USD)
[2013-06-09 00:00:00] BUY: 2924.13366084 BTC (at 107.90 USD)
[2013-06-24 00:00:00] SELL: 2918.28539352 BTC (at 100.609 USD)
[2013-08-06 12:00:00] BUY: 3051.41849278 BTC (at 96.027 USD)
[2014-01-01 23:00:00] SELL: 3045.31565579 BTC (at 741.21 USD)
[2014-01-20 11:00:00] BUY: 2707.57364521 BTC (at 832.001 USD)
[2014-02-10 11:00:00] SELL: 2702.15849792 BTC (at 600.00 USD)
[2014-03-28 12:00:00] BUY: 3269.46004853 BTC (at 494.899 USD)
[2014-04-04 00:00:00] SELL: 3262.92112843 BTC (at 447.193 USD)
[2014-05-12 12:00:00] BUY: 3361.12389405 BTC (at 433.259 USD)
[2014-05-18 00:00:00] SELL: 3354.40164626 BTC (at 440.374 USD)
[2014-05-31 00:00:00] BUY: 2457.05738495 BTC (at 600.001 USD)
[2014-07-09 00:00:00] SELL: 2452.14327018 BTC (at 615.85 USD)
[2014-07-21 12:00:00] BUY: 2456.9815328 BTC (at 613.408 USD)
[2014-08-05 00:00:00] SELL: 2452.06756973 BTC (at 577.231 USD)
[2014-11-10 23:00:00] BUY: 3841.52476664 BTC (at 367.713 USD)
[2014-11-18 11:00:00] SELL: 3833.84171711 BTC (at 374.269 USD)
[2014-11-29 23:00:00] BUY: 3825.17243616 BTC (at 374.367 USD)
[2014-12-17 11:00:00] SELL: 3817.52209129 BTC (at 317.74 USD)
[2015-02-21 23:00:00] BUY: 5079.31653736 BTC (at 238.33 USD)
[2015-04-10 00:00:00] SELL: 5069.15790429 BTC (at 239.794 USD)
[2015-05-20 00:00:00] BUY: 5191.53921592 BTC (at 233.673 USD)
[2015-06-10 12:00:00] SELL: 5181.15613749 BTC (at 230.27 USD)
[2015-06-30 00:00:00] BUY: 4616.01773297 BTC (at 257.945 USD)
[2015-08-16 00:00:00] SELL: 4606.7856975 BTC (at 257.569 USD)
[2015-09-29 12:00:00] BUY: 4997.6453047 BTC (at 236.95 USD)
[2015-12-07 23:00:00] >> Starting portfolio:
[2015-12-07 23:00:00] >> [10000.00 USD]
[2015-12-07 23:00:00] >> Closing portfolio:
[2015-12-07 23:00:00] >> [0.00000176 USD, 4987.65001409 BTC]
[2015-12-07 23:00:00] >> Profit: 1921597.14685848 USD


Selling the cross is 1.58X BTC since Dec 2011; but it has experienced nasty drawdown

bitfinex which is approaching the cross near parallel has charted 3 12h doji's sideways

 

[nayjevin]

segregated witness proposal

wut?

oh:

An Airline only allows you to bring a limited amount of weight and bags onboard a plane for your luggage. They have to be fair and have a consistent policy for their passengers while at the same time recognize real life physical limitations and risks. There is a careful balance to be made where they make their clients happy with allowing them more luggage but at the same time keep the weight considerations reasonable for speed , limiting fuel costs and safety.

They previously had a policy of allowing 2 carry on bags weighing 10 Kg in total, but overtime with a growing economy their clients grew more wealthy and needed to travel with more bags because they were flying to Aruba for 2 week vacations, instead of 1 week. The clients were demanding more bags and up to 40 Kg of luggage weight. They had a choice to increase the size of the plane but the accountants and engineers were concerned because the fuel costs would increase and the safety of the planes may be compromised as well with so much weight. The sales department also voiced an objection that larger planes would cut down on their flying routes leading to less possible destinations clients could visit.

It was known since 2011 a safe and effective solution would be to separate the less critical luggage on a train or boat and the important luggage could go with the client to solve these problems but the airline kept delaying these changes because of distribution and contract problems with the railroad/shipyard companies. Redirecting every railroad or shipping route would be a logistical nightmare. Another concern is passengers didn't want their luggage being mixed or misplaced within the trains/boats as they were keen on some of the new quick luggage check-in and fraud protection processes the airlines were developing and there is no way they could get any of that with dumping their luggage on a train or boat.

One day a bright young engineer recommended a novel approach to solve these concerns. He indicated, "Look, we already have shipping agreements with Fedex/DHL and lease out a certain amount of space on their cargo planes that flyout from the same airports. We would have to increase capacity on them but they are efficient and we won't have to reroute all the trains or deal with the nasty railroad companies and our passengers could still bring their important luggage through our new fraud protection and quick check-in processes. Our passengers won't have to pay more and get everything they want. We will have to secure larger contracts with the airfreight companies but ultimately they will benefit from more business and we will benefit from more flight routes and clients." ... followed by an applause from the board of directors and some quick recommendations to roll out the long awaited changes immediately.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1279444.0

 

[amonasro]

so are you guys bullish or bearish?

Bullish, tentatively. I'm mapping these ongoing trading range fractals and noticing some repeating patterns, specifically how long the price stays in the top or bottom of the range affecting the ultimate outcome of how the price moves out of the range. The range is defined roughly by the local buying or selling climax and its automatic reaction wave, as indicated on the chart with red and green boxes. These are high volume areas so the price repeatedly finds support and resistance there. Wyckoff defined these as congestion areas or trading ranges, where the price prepares for its next move, that is, whether supply or demand gain control. The goal is to figure out if there is more buying (accumulation) or selling (distribution) happening inside of the congestion area.

As I study TA patterns, I continually notice that U shaped formations are associated with bullish accumulation patterns (inverse H&S, cup & handle) whereas upside down U formations are associated with bearish distribution (H&S tops, crowning formations) patterns. Taking this simple shape and drawing connecting the tops or bottoms of each range give an interesting clue of how much absorption of supply is going on. This is important because the market demand needs to be strong enough to absorb the selling like a sponge before it can move up again. This is also why the longer patterns tend to give way to larger moves--the more selling that's removed, the stronger the resulting rally. Conversely, the more demand removed, the stronger the downmove.

In the red distribution areas, think of the blue dotted lines as opposition to higher prices (supply) that prevents the price from moving higher. Once supply overcomes demand (that is, the sponge is full) the price breaks support and falls. In the green accumulations, they represent a demand area where the supply is actively absorbed at range lows without pushing the price down. Here the sponge is large enough to absorb the selling.

As you can see it's not an exact science, but the more important ranges tend to exhibit these properties. There is good evidence of accumulation in our current range, and its length indicates that a move from here, up or down, should be a significant one.

 

[djthistle01]

PBOC doing capital injections til the 14th, US rate decision on the 15th, down moon is 11th, the astro windows i watch are wide open from the 11th to 14th on the 14th trend reversal.

so China could pump till 11-14th and then we get some consolidation. with all this from china if price drops then EVERYONE'S assertion that china capital flows effect BTC are bullshit and it's all whale games.

wash trades are massive right now hey Pres?!!! OKCOin & Houbi turn off and the other on at the same time. it looks so fake it's not even funny. idiots.

 

[amonasro]

Didn't have long to wait--futures just blasted off.

 

[FSP-Rebel]

Potential 1W chart unfolding soon

 

[amonasro]

The support break took me out of my long to lock in profits. I fear that if the price heads back into the larger trading range bears will become bolder and the leveraged longs will be put under immediate pressure. I would expect a counter rally back toward the recent range, but if support becomes resistance there and the market shows more signs of distribution (supply greater than demand) this is bearish.

 

[djthistle01]

PBOC doing capital injections til the 14th, US rate decision on the 15th, down moon is 11th, the astro windows i watch are wide open from the 11th to 14th on the 14th trend reversal.

so China could pump till 11-14th and then we get some consolidation. with all this from china if price drops then EVERYONE'S assertion that china capital flows effect BTC are bullshit and it's all whale games.

wash trades are massive right now hey Pres?!!! OKCOin & Houbi turn off and the other on at the same time. it looks so fake it's not even funny. idiots.

thank you china! that was a nice $35 move.

 

[djthistle01]

Potential 1W chart unfolding soon

I'll eat my hat if that happens. that would mean a new ATH 6mo before halving.

the most bullish case (and i do not support it) would be an ABCD pattern with the 500top as C and the 300 low as C and D coming in around 700.
the most acceptable bull case I see is the mirror pattern, may of 2014 is the middle of the mirror point, which also ends near 700 but in a longer timeline than ABCD
but overall a typical bubble pattern/sine wave for a bit would be nice. but i hate to say it but the stupid mirror pattern is still holding strong.

 

[zeMan]

I'll eat my hat if that happens. that would mean a new ATH 6mo before halving.

the most bullish case (and i do not support it) would be an ABCD pattern with the 500top as C and the 300 low as C and D coming in around 700.
the most acceptable bull case I see is the mirror pattern, may of 2014 is the middle of the mirror point, which also ends near 700 but in a longer timeline than ABCD
but overall a typical bubble pattern/sine wave for a bit would be nice. but i hate to say it but the stupid mirror pattern is still holding strong.

And what will happen to LTC if BTC explodes like this? OMG.

 

[FSP-Rebel]

Finex margins are 99% long as a side note.

Sometime later tonight or early tomorrow morning we'll likely have another parade.

 

[zeMan]

Finex margins are 99% long as a side note.

Sometime later tonight or early tomorrow morning we'll likely have another parade.

When Finex margins are 99% long, that usually means gigantic dump. Bitcoin likes to go in the direction of maximum pain, and when so many people are long, a dump starting causes huge panic and $hit gets crazy. On the other hand you could be right

 

[FSP-Rebel]

Price is rising

enjoy volume forecasting, we go up.

 

[amonasro]

When Finex margins are 99% long, that usually means gigantic dump. Bitcoin likes to go in the direction of maximum pain, and when so many people are long, a dump starting causes huge panic and $hit gets crazy. On the other hand you could be right

Right, this weakens the trend. Everyone leveraged to one side creates potential to go the other direction (maximum pain). What happens at tops is that buying power becomes exhausted and longs begin to sell their positions--first slowly and quietly, then quickly once they get worried it won't go higher. If these longs selling outnumber the buyers, the price begins to fall under its own weight. Soon it's a herd of elephants trying to get out at once. Shorts pile in to take advantage.

I'm not saying that will happen yet, but at some point the scale becomes tipped too far to one side. Finex longs were 29-30 million in July/August before this became a big problem and the market proceeded to roll over into a big crash that shook them all out. At the time, the XT controversy seemed to be the catalyst but in retrospect the news wasn't that terrible and the market was weak so it was perceived as worse than it really was. If it happened today, for example, you might see a price drop but not one so dramatic and scary.

 

[fatjohn]

Price is rising

enjoy volume forecasting, we go up.

Volume on China is fake.

That being said fuck I should have listened.
I got out 1hr prior to lift off at a nice low after having slept in my long. FML, really.

 

[presence]

Honey Badger Pro is latched on Green Dragon
Projected sell at $544; rising @ about 55 cents an hour.



omg

 

[zeMan]

Wow. This is nuts. This rising wedge was making me very nervous in my long - but now we have broken upwards.

 

[kfarnan]

https://youtu.be/8iwOQKnQUy0