The Litepresence Report on Cryptocurrency

[fatjohn]

I think this might be your black swan, pres.

Given that 15 days ago the price was at 2050 staying flat for over 5 days, the price 30 days ago was 2700 going to the 2550 area for over 5 days and 45 days ago the price was 1750 averaging 1800 for the next 5 days we can say this.

If the price continues between 2050 and 2550 (lets say at an average of 2300) the 15 day will continue to rise at a rate of 16.6/day, the 30 day continue to fall at a rate of 8.3/day and the 45 day continue to rise at a rate of 8.3/day.
In this event the 30/15 will cross in 1.5 days and the 30/45 in 3.5 days.

In order to evade these crosses, the price should fall to 1550 so that the decent rates of the 15 day and 30 day are matched or the price needs to rise to 2925 so that the rise rates of the 30 and 45 are matched.

Moreover we can say that in 5 days the events of the 10th and the 26th will cause a change in the 15 and 30 day moving averages since they will no longer make up the data used to compute these averages (10th for 30 day, 26th for 15 day)

More specifically, the 30 day will start to rise as long as price is higher than 2100, the 15 will start to fall as long as prices are below 2300 and the 45 day will start to flatten a bit. However, I expect some violent price action by then.

But which way?

 

[fatjohn]

Pres if 2500 holds, the 30 day will turn positive in 24 hours and the 15 will cross over it not too long afterwards.

I'm changing my views and calling for a moonshot.

 

[presence]

slope of 12h sma 2,30,90, and 150 are rising;
but the slope of ma60 is falling;
while the 12h chart is capitulated ma2>ma60>ma30>ma90>ma150

    signal = 0
    # if the slope of 12h sma 2,30,90, and 150 are rising
    if (ma2s > 0) and (ma30s>0) and (ma90s>0) and (ma150s>0):
        # but the slope of ma60 is falling
        if (ma60s < 0):
            # and the 12h chart is capitulated thus:
            if ma2>ma60>ma30>ma90>ma150:
                signal = 1
                
    plot('signal', signal, secondary=True)

very rare condition on the 12h chart; only 4 previous events

this condition was true for less than 48 hours on these dates:

5/19/2012 Broke GREEN DRAGON 90+ days
9/9/2012 Broke GREEN DRAGON 90+ days
1/3/2013 Broke GREEN DRAGON 90+ days
7/7/2014 Broke RED DRAGON 90+ days



12/5/2015 Condition True

 

[presence]

We have 12h 30x60 cross now on all exchanges

That changes the state thus:

    signal = 0
    # if the slope of 12h sma 2,30,90, and 150 are rising
    if (ma2s > 0) and (ma30s>0) and (ma90s>0) and (ma150s>0):
        # but the slope of ma60 is falling
        if (ma60s < 0):
            # and the 12h chart is capitulated thus:
            if ma2>ma30>ma60>ma90>ma150:
                signal = 1

now only 2 brief matching instances in the history of bitcoin to the current 12h chart condition:

1)
the moment before the oct 2 2013 flash crash "goldmine", which then led to the nov 2013 "china bubble"

2)
may 30, 2013 which went 90 day bear thereafter

we are definitely at a pivotal moment.


THIS IS A BREAKPOINT

 

[presence]

oct 2 2013 was the "silk road crash"

20% down and back up in one day

 

[amonasro]

The charts show H&S inside H&S so that tells me down.

This is interesting because I tried to trade this. Covered my short at basically breakeven. My trade before that was a wash as well, slight loss, didn't set my stop high enough to lock a profit. The market was telling me it was distribution, should have listened My trades last month were much better.

As it stands now we are either still in Phase B or entering Phase C/D. One thing is usually sure--when the price starts jumping with volume and weak pullbacks near the end of the range (long after the initial climactic action that began it), it's time to sit up and take notice. I noticed some whales gobbled up 20,000+ quarterly futures contracts last night (multiple 5000+ contract limit buys) when the price started to move. Usually this does not happen on accident.

Here's a chart of how I am looking at the market right now, my recent trades and some of the difficulties one faces when trying to do this in real time. Point and figure takes time out of the equation and helps me to see whether supply or demand is in control, therefore what may happen next. Accumulation ranges in green, distribution in red. I've found they repeatedly exhibit certain characteristics: Accumulation looking like little reverse head & shoulders patterns with quick dips to support while distributions tend to hug (or exceed) top resistance for awhile, then drop back to support multiple times. One thing that alerted me to the head & shoulders fakeout was that the right shoulder looked more like accumulation than distribution to me.

 

[presence]

[h=1]Justice Department announces arrest of 'key figure' in Silk Road drug website[/h] [h=2]Roger Thomas Clark was arrested in Thailand
[/h]

• By Chris Welch
• on December 4, 2015 07:32 pm
• @chriswelch

Share on Facebook Tweet Share Pin
Roger Thomas Clark, accused of being "a senior advisor" of Silk Road creator Ross Ulbricht, has been arrested in Thailand. The US Department of Justice announced the news in a press release late this evening, describing Clark as "a close confidante of Ulbricht’s who advised him on all aspects of Silk Road’s operations and helped him grow the site into an extensive criminal enterprise."
Clark reportedly went under the username "Variety Jones" at the Silk Road, an underground drug marketplace that operated on the dark web between 2011 and 2013, when authorities shut it down. Today's press release says Clark was paid "hundreds of thousands of dollars" for his role in helping Ulbricht steer the illegal site's path. The complaint against Clark sounds pretty damning; here's an excerpt (emphasis by The Verge).

Among other things, Clark counseled Ulbricht on the improvement and expansion of Silk Road’s technical infrastructure, including helping Ulbricht hire and manage a computer programmer to assist with these projects. Clark also helped Ulbricht develop and enforce the rules governing how Silk Road vendors and users could do business on the site, which were designed to maximize the commissions that Ulbricht received from Silk Road sales. Clark further advised Ulbricht on how to conceal his involvement in, and hide his profits from, the operation of Silk Road, including helping Ulbricht devise cover stories to tell others and make plans to obtain foreign citizenship and offshore bank accounts. Finally, Clark also advised Ulbricht on tactics to thwart efforts by law enforcement to investigate Silk Road. In that vein, Clark repeatedly advocated the use of intimidation and violence to keep members of the Silk Road support staff from cooperating with law enforcement.
​

He's being charged with one count of narcotics conspiracy, which carries "a maximum sentence of life in prison and a mandatory minimum sentence of 10 years," plus one count of money laundering, which could add another 20. "Clark may have thought residing in Thailand would keep him out of reach of U.S authorities, but our international partnerships have proven him wrong," said FBI Assistant Director Diego Rodriguez in a statement. Other officials also boasted about snagging Clark, a Canadian citizen. "Anonymity is what Roger Thomas Clark believed he attained posing as ‘Variety Jones’ while allegedly committing crimes; but handcuffed and pending extradition is not anonymity," said DEA Special Agent in Charge James J. Hunt.
Clark, 54, was arrested on December 3rd and his extradition to face charges in the United States is pending. In May, Ross Ulbricht was sentenced to life in prison for founding and managing the Silk Road.

http://www.theverge.com/2015/12/4/9852140/silk-road-roger-thomas-clark-arrested

 

[fatjohn]

slope of 12h sma 2,30,90, and 150 are rising;
but the slope of ma60 is falling;
while the 12h chart is capitulated ma2>ma60>ma30>ma90>ma150

    signal = 0
    # if the slope of 12h sma 2,30,90, and 150 are rising
    if (ma2s > 0) and (ma30s>0) and (ma90s>0) and (ma150s>0):
        # but the slope of ma60 is falling
        if (ma60s < 0):
            # and the 12h chart is capitulated thus:
            if ma2>ma60>ma30>ma90>ma150:
                signal = 1
                
    plot('signal', signal, secondary=True)

very rare condition on the 12h chart; only 4 previous events

this condition was true for less than 48 hours on these dates:

5/19/2012 Broke GREEN DRAGON 90+ days
9/9/2012 Broke GREEN DRAGON 90+ days
1/3/2013 Broke GREEN DRAGON 90+ days
7/7/2014 Broke RED DRAGON 90+ days



12/5/2015 Condition True

If price holds, in five hours the M60 will start to rise. There was a large sell off occuring 30 days ago.

Edit: to be specific, by 21:00 EST the 12h 60 will rise if price > 2350 and in US if price > 360.

 

[fatjohn]

This is interesting because I tried to trade this. Covered my short at basically breakeven. My trade before that was a wash as well, slight loss, didn't set my stop high enough to lock a profit. The market was telling me it was distribution, should have listened My trades last month were much better.

As it stands now we are either still in Phase B or entering Phase C/D. One thing is usually sure--when the price starts jumping with volume and weak pullbacks near the end of the range (long after the initial climactic action that began it), it's time to sit up and take notice. I noticed some whales gobbled up 20,000+ quarterly futures contracts last night (multiple 5000+ contract limit buys) when the price started to move. Usually this does not happen on accident.

Here's a chart of how I am looking at the market right now, my recent trades and some of the difficulties one faces when trying to do this in real time. Point and figure takes time out of the equation and helps me to see whether supply or demand is in control, therefore what may happen next. Accumulation ranges in green, distribution in red. I've found they repeatedly exhibit certain characteristics: Accumulation looking like little reverse head & shoulders patterns with quick dips to support while distributions tend to hug (or exceed) top resistance for awhile, then drop back to support multiple times. One thing that alerted me to the head & shoulders fakeout was that the right shoulder looked more like accumulation than distribution to me.

Good to see you use bitfinex in your analysis, beware of volume spoofing on OKCoin and huobi. see here: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showth...eport-on-Cryptocurrency&p=6055019#post6055019

 

[presence]

what are the fucking odds?

October 2 2013
Ross Ulbricht Arrested
http://arstechnica.com/information-...ainty-bitcoin-value-drops-over-20-in-3-hours/

for a brief instance....

# the slope of 12h sma 2,30,90, and 150 are rising
# but the slope of ma60 is falling
# the 12h chart is ma2>ma30>ma60>ma90>ma150

December 4 2015
Roger Clarke Arrested

# the slope of 12h sma 2,30,90, and 150 are rising
# but the slope of ma60 is falling
# the 12h chart is ma2>ma30>ma60>ma90>ma150


outside of those two events the chart was in this position for less than 48 hours on May 30 2013; that's it... the only time's we've seen those conditions in the complete history of bitcoin.



What The Fuck ?????

 

[presence]

http://www.cnet.com/news/key-figure-at-illegal-drug-site-silk-road-nabbed-in-thailand-police-say/

[h=1]Key figure at illegal-drug site Silk Road nabbed in Thailand, police say[/h]A 54-year-old Canadian man arrested this week served as the "closest advisor" to Silk Road founder "Dread Pirate Roberts," according to law enforcement.

[h=6]Internet[/h]December 5, 201512:29 PM PST

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  by Edward Moyer @edatnews

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The right-hand man of Ross Ulbricht -- convicted mastermind of Silk Road, the notorious online bazaar for illegal drugs -- has been arrested in Thailand, according to law enforcement officials.
The US Department of Justice said Friday that 54-year-old Canadian citizen Roger Thomas Clark, aka "Variety Jones," had been apprehended Thursday and is awaiting extradition to the United States.
The DOJ alleges that Clark helped Ulbricht with everything from staying out of the hands of police to creating rules for Silk Road's users to strengthening the site's technical infrastructure.

Before being shut down by police, the Silk Road website served as a trading post for illegal drugs like cocaine, as well as other outlawed goods. Another of the site's key players has just been apprehended, according to officials.
Wavebreak Media Ltd./Corbis Clark served as Ulbricht's "closest adviser and confidante as together they facilitated an anonymous global black market for all things illegal," James Gibbons, an agent with the Department of Homeland Security, was quoted as saying in a statement from the DOJ.
The 31-year-old Ulbricht, alias "Dread Pirate Roberts," was sentenced in May to life in prison for his role in Silk Road, which operated from 2011 to 2013 before being shut down by police.
The marketplace, characterized by law enforcement as the most extensive criminal bazaar on the Internet, relied on technologies that would supposedly hide the identities of its users and creators. The site was used by thousands of drug dealers and others to sell hundreds of kilograms of drugs and other contraband and to launder hundreds of millions of dollars in revenues, the DOJ said in its statement.
Clark himself made at least hundreds of thousands of dollars in his position at Silk Road, the DOJ claims. In addition to assistance with the site, Clark allegedly helped Ulbricht keep other Silk Road staff in line, advising that they be threatened with violence to keep them from going to police. Federal prosecutors claim that at one point Ulbricht and Clark discussed "tracking down" a certain staffer to be sure he hadn't "gone off the rails." In that exchange, Clark allegedly said, "Dude, we're criminal drug dealers -- what line shouldn't we cross?"
[h=6]More on Silk Road[/h]

• Silk Road founder appeals conviction a week after life sentence
• Federal agent pleads guilty to corruption charges in Silk Road case
• Silk Road 2.0's alleged 'DoctorClu' arrested on drug-related charges

Clark has been charged with one count of narcotics conspiracy, with a mandatory minimum sentence of 10 years and a maximum sentence of life, and with one count of money laundering conspiracy, which carries a maximum sentence of 20 years.

 

[muh_roads]

what are the fucking odds?

October 2 2013
Ross Ulbricht Arrested
http://arstechnica.com/information-...ainty-bitcoin-value-drops-over-20-in-3-hours/

for a brief instance....

# the slope of 12h sma 2,30,90, and 150 are rising
# but the slope of ma60 is falling
# the 12h chart is ma2>ma30>ma60>ma90>ma150

December 4 2015
Roger Clarke Arrested

# the slope of 12h sma 2,30,90, and 150 are rising
# but the slope of ma60 is falling
# the 12h chart is ma2>ma30>ma60>ma90>ma150


outside of those two events the chart was in this position for less than 48 hours on May 30 2013; that's it... the only time's we've seen those conditions in the complete history of bitcoin.



What The Fuck ?????

LMAO

Glad I jumped back in 2380

 

[kfarnan]

The feds don't like competition.

 

[muh_roads]

djthistle,

#FailliotWave

I lol'd IRL on that one.

 

[fatjohn]

http://www.cnet.com/news/key-figure-at-illegal-drug-site-silk-road-nabbed-in-thailand-police-say/

I'm eagerly anticipating the movie.

 

[presence]

The marketplace Honey Badger took a 8.8% stoploss assets position last night.

GREEN DRAGON

2>30>60>90>150
Slope of all are rising

This brings us back to 2% over buy and hold since our 233 buy in

 

[muh_roads]

The marketplace Honey Badger took a 8.8% stoploss assets position last night.

GREEN DRAGON

2>30>60>90>150
Slope of all are rising

7:0

Can I make that 1 yet?

 

[presence]

indeed

 

[djthistle01]

so are you guys bullish or bearish? and i thought i over complicated things........i feel like comparing to old fractals is tough to do with institutional traders, big money, leverage trading, and so much washing going on compared to years ago.

i will admit i am agnostic right now. the fractal i was trading for months finally broke. basically btc was being run by the same bots that moved the ltc pump so high.

yesterday closed with a gravestone doji, but it did not do anything last time on the way up yo 500.

i would like to see consolidation. however i am open to the mirror pattern being talked about so much. it seems too easy for me, but maybe that is what they want........the path of least resistance.

 

[fatjohn]

so are you guys bullish or bearish? and i thought i over complicated things........i feel like comparing to old fractals is tough to do with institutional traders, big money, leverage trading, and so much washing going on compared to years ago.

i will admit i am agnostic right now. the fractal i was trading for months finally broke. basically btc was being run by the same bots that moved the ltc pump so high.

yesterday closed with a gravestone doji, but it did not do anything last time on the way up yo 500.

i would like to see consolidation. however i am open to the mirror pattern being talked about so much. it seems too easy for me, but maybe that is what they want........the path of least resistance.

I'll be honest this trading range was a bit tough on me and I lost 5% of my trading account due to a panic sell during the biggest dip, but now that everything seems to have died down I'm pretty bullish. +10% in the next ten hours. A very unlikely break of the lows of the last two days would send it down quite a bit further imo.