The Litepresence Report on Cryptocurrency

Lunatic Trader

SomewhereInOz said:
Time for a "Cool Change" in trading tactics?


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VjHR89gKfSU


I know its time for a Cool Change in weather. Now 45C down here and the "Cool Change" isn't due till Friday. :-(


As the Wicked-Witch said to Dorothy "my GPU's are Meeeeeeeeeeellllllting"


A graphic to remind to be wise to the Lunar Cycle -> https://www.dropbox.com/s/mzxgtbvwje8njd8/Time-for-a-Cool-Change.jpg


And as Glenn Shorrock would say "Staring at the Full Moon Like a Lover!!!" Buying Op!!!
Click to expand...

. . . anyway to change my handle on here to "LunaticTrader"? :-)

http://lunatictrader.com/?Moon_Cycles:Lunar_Phases
 
Dipped my toe halfway in @ 00747 NMC earlier. Getting bored and wanted some action again. Didn't drop enough to take the rest of my order, but that's fine.

btw thanks for all the bot info SIO. Will be pouring over it all in the next few days. I'm still trying to figure out Meta Trader, heh.
 
SomewhereInOz said:
Primecoin Lunar Cycle -> https://www.dropbox.com/s/o4y6vocu01jzyag/PPC Lunar Cycle.jpg

Notice how the exit points come about 3 days after the New Moon.

However, I think the beginning of the decline phase is more tighly correlated to BTC's upwards move away from its Ichimoku cloud around that time myself.

Anyway, wondering how high PPC, NMC and XPM will run up if you are sitting on a winning position? Take New Moon + 3 Days Max and make sure you are back into BTC by then.
Click to expand...

I meant to show XPM earlier, but put up a duplicate PPC. Doesn't matter too much, they both look the same:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/b7621sv1qiaf55y/XPM Lunar Cycle.jpg
 
42 Coin - The Meaning of Life, the Universe and Cryptocurrency

42Coin - the Meaning of life, the Universe and Cryptocurrency


A funny story, but the joke's on me . . . read on.


Well first a quick vid recap from H2G2 to set the tone:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aboZctrHfK8


Note Crowd response at 01:50, you'll see why in a moment. Its the same let down feeling you will find everytime you scroll the coin list on Cryptsy and see 42Coin up there at the top of the list. ;-)


Discovered 42Coin was available for trade on Cryptsy two days ago. Hmmmm, I wondered what could that be? It's a Newie.


There's a grand total of 42 Coins Max to be available through Scrypt mining. Oooooh rarity, until you realise you are mining at 1.0E-08 coins for each block you find. So this means there are really 420,000,000 real coin equivalents. 42 just sounds nice and small and rare for the marketing pitch. It's kinda like saying, "We're only going to print $85 Billion a month" which doesn't seem so bad (I mean Billions and Trillions get bounced around alot these days), until you notice everything around you escalating in price.


Goal is to reach a Market Cap of $42,000,000 in under a month, the first coin and the fastest coin to achieve this if it does. One word for this . . . HYPE!


I think Roger Hodgson pre-wrote a song about 42Coin:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2w1g-idt-8U


Mining opened to miners on 8 Jan 2014 (supposedly). There has definitely been some pre-mining that's gone on, else we wouldn't see coins trading so fast on Cryptsy, especially when you realise the per-day mining rate achievable. At this moment were mining block 11,566. So why all the hubbub about blocks 1-420 below?


42 Second Block Time


Difficulty re-targetted every 7 minutes


0.00000010 Block reward for the first 419 blocks


Blocks 420+ are 0.00004200 block reward in size


Block 420 is a SUPERBLOCK with 10x the normal block value


$42 Million in less than a month, thus each coin is worth $1,000,000 by 8 Feb 2014 or 1058 BTC at todays prices if achieved.


Exchanges opened two days ago with a 1500 BTC price achieved after first hour or two of trade, now down around 950 BTC and very soon to be tending hyperbolically towards zero IMHO, especially when the word gets out.


So started mining 2 days ago and wow I am pulling top hash rate with my mining rigs on this particular pool, beauty. Only 30 miners total at this one pool, sweet!


Yesterday its up to 150 miners . . . ok so people are catching on.


42/0.00004200 per block means there are 1,000,000 possible blocks . . . ok so I'm in early.


Low and behold today its down to 42 miners (there's that darned number again), the others have all done a runner, where'd they all go? Now I'm pulling 35% of the total hash rate for the entire pool, Huh? and achieving 263 GigaHash? What? Impossible. 8.2 MHash is about the best achievable with other coins (a dodgy gauge designed to get miner's to crack a fat and stick around?) . . . see blue line in image ->


https://www.dropbox.com/s/fbksrzg1wk7k4x1/42coin Hash Rate.jpg


It gets even better. Minimum withdrawal from the mining pool is still stuck on an old coins value of 4500 to 1,000,000 coins for auto payout (probably Dogecoin), with no way to contact the Pool Support Admin . . . Lovely!


After 2 days of mining achieved 8.7E-7 42coins, and this is in 45C heat. Grrrr. At todays rate of exchange that is the equivalent of 0.0008265 BTC or 0.0004132 BTC/Day. On an average day, I can mine 0.08 to 0.1 BTC with my rigs achieving 1 BTC every 10-12 days via other Scrypt coins (WDC, ARG, MEC, MNC, DOGE, etc.). And this isn't a major op, 3 rigs each with Four Sapphire R9 290's is all.


See why all the miners are doing a runner? T'ain't worth it to mine 42Coin, and without miners guess what? The things gonna die. And guess what? They know this already. Thus why they pre-mined a months worth of coin to sell on the exchanges during their hype campaign. ;-)


Have some 42Coin or know someone who has or someone who is keen to invest think its the Answer to Life, the Universe and Cryptocurrency? Ditch 'em fast!


Hendo and Maco are the brains behind this operation apparently:


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?PHPSESSID=k8lqu2879so77ga0lm3m2bfhv3&topic=399658.0


Doubt this coin will be around long enough to even make it to the Crypto-Currency Market Cap List let alone $42 Million.


But Hendo and Maco should score quite a few BTC until word spreads. Help Spread It!


Is this a valid Coin? No its another Meme Coin/Theme Coin Con! Basically a 30-Day Pump and Dump.


Buyer Beware or what was that one again? Oh yes a Pig in a Poke! Sheez, stick to the lingo of the Forum would ya SomeoneInOz :-)


The True Meaning of Life: Life goes on and we live and learn. Neeeeeext.


P.S. Back to H2G2 why was it they had two BEK's (Black-Eyed Kids) ask the question? Hmmmm . . . . Maybe Hendo and Maco are BEK's too ;-) Spooky.


Interpretation:


Crack a Fat -> http://www.koalanet.com.au/australian-slang.html#C
 
SomewhereInOz said:
BTC going forward? In keeping with the dragon tail playing out as was suggested on here prior to Christmas, Aroon indicator shows a move higher today with a bounce off of the Ichimoku cloud and our new resistance line - $960? From there a Full Moon (16/17 Jan) price drop would not be unexpected (think back to what was happening during the last Full Moon on 17 December).


Graphic here -> https://www.dropbox.com/s/1o6er1srwieg72l/BTC-15-Jan-14.jpg


Remember the Huobi runs this market, and the Chinese are into lunar calendar trading.


$650 - $700 by 1 February is my expectation.


A good chance to focus on learning how to code trading bots.


Good 12 part intro video series on CoffeeScript here:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pbWHx8lyNHY
Click to expand...

Are you sure the prices will drop by 1 february?
How long do you think it will take until prices stabilize again around 900?
 
SomewhereInOz said:
42Coin - the Meaning of life, the Universe and Cryptocurrency


A funny story, but the joke's on me . . . read on.


Well first a quick vid recap from H2G2 to set the tone:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aboZctrHfK8


Note Crowd response at 01:50, you'll see why in a moment. Its the same let down feeling you will find everytime you scroll the coin list on Cryptsy and see 42Coin up there at the top of the list. ;-)


Discovered 42Coin was available for trade on Cryptsy two days ago. Hmmmm, I wondered what could that be? It's a Newie.


There's a grand total of 42 Coins Max to be available through Scrypt mining. Oooooh rarity, until you realise you are mining at 1.0E-08 coins for each block you find. So this means there are really 420,000,000 real coin equivalents. 42 just sounds nice and small and rare for the marketing pitch. It's kinda like saying, "We're only going to print $85 Billion a month" which doesn't seem so bad (I mean Billions and Trillions get bounced around alot these days), until you notice everything around you escalating in price.


Goal is to reach a Market Cap of $42,000,000 in under a month, the first coin and the fastest coin to achieve this if it does. One word for this . . . HYPE!


I think Roger Hodgson pre-wrote a song about 42Coin:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2w1g-idt-8U


Mining opened to miners on 8 Jan 2014 (supposedly). There has definitely been some pre-mining that's gone on, else we wouldn't see coins trading so fast on Cryptsy, especially when you realise the per-day mining rate achievable. At this moment were mining block 11,566. So why all the hubbub about blocks 1-420 below?


42 Second Block Time


Difficulty re-targetted every 7 minutes


0.00000010 Block reward for the first 419 blocks


Blocks 420+ are 0.00004200 block reward in size


Block 420 is a SUPERBLOCK with 10x the normal block value


$42 Million in less than a month, thus each coin is worth $1,000,000 by 8 Feb 2014 or 1058 BTC at todays prices if achieved.


Exchanges opened two days ago with a 1500 BTC price achieved after first hour or two of trade, now down around 950 BTC and very soon to be tending hyperbolically towards zero IMHO, especially when the word gets out.


So started mining 2 days ago and wow I am pulling top hash rate with my mining rigs on this particular pool, beauty. Only 30 miners total at this one pool, sweet!


Yesterday its up to 150 miners . . . ok so people are catching on.


42/0.00004200 per block means there are 1,000,000 possible blocks . . . ok so I'm in early.


Low and behold today its down to 42 miners (there's that darned number again), the others have all done a runner, where'd they all go? Now I'm pulling 35% of the total hash rate for the entire pool, Huh? and achieving 263 GigaHash? What? Impossible. 8.2 MHash is about the best achievable with other coins (a dodgy gauge designed to get miner's to crack a fat and stick around?) . . . see blue line in image ->


https://www.dropbox.com/s/fbksrzg1wk7k4x1/42coin Hash Rate.jpg


It gets even better. Minimum withdrawal from the mining pool is still stuck on an old coins value of 4500 to 1,000,000 coins for auto payout (probably Dogecoin), with no way to contact the Pool Support Admin . . . Lovely!


After 2 days of mining achieved 8.7E-7 42coins, and this is in 45C heat. Grrrr. At todays rate of exchange that is the equivalent of 0.0008265 BTC or 0.0004132 BTC/Day. On an average day, I can mine 0.08 to 0.1 BTC with my rigs achieving 1 BTC every 10-12 days via other Scrypt coins (WDC, ARG, MEC, MNC, DOGE, etc.). And this isn't a major op, 3 rigs each with Four Sapphire R9 290's is all.


See why all the miners are doing a runner? T'ain't worth it to mine 42Coin, and without miners guess what? The things gonna die. And guess what? They know this already. Thus why they pre-mined a months worth of coin to sell on the exchanges during their hype campaign. ;-)


Have some 42Coin or know someone who has or someone who is keen to invest think its the Answer to Life, the Universe and Cryptocurrency? Ditch 'em fast!


Hendo and Maco are the brains behind this operation apparently:


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?PHPSESSID=k8lqu2879so77ga0lm3m2bfhv3&topic=399658.0


Doubt this coin will be around long enough to even make it to the Crypto-Currency Market Cap List let alone $42 Million.


But Hendo and Maco should score quite a few BTC until word spreads. Help Spread It!


Is this a valid Coin? No its another Meme Coin/Theme Coin Con! Basically a 30-Day Pump and Dump.


Buyer Beware or what was that one again? Oh yes a Pig in a Poke! Sheez, stick to the lingo of the Forum would ya SomeoneInOz :-)


The True Meaning of Life: Life goes on and we live and learn. Neeeeeext.


P.S. Back to H2G2 why was it they had two BEK's (Black-Eyed Kids) ask the question? Hmmmm . . . . Maybe Hendo and Maco are BEK's too ;-) Spooky.


Interpretation:


Crack a Fat -> http://www.koalanet.com.au/australian-slang.html#C
Click to expand...

Oh, you're Australian. That explains it. :p
 
btcltc said:
Are you sure the prices will drop by 1 february?
How long do you think it will take until prices stabilize again around 900?
Click to expand...


Am I certain prices will drop by 1 Feb? No one can be certain of anything in the Cryptos. This is a wild and eratic marketplace.


When I first started looking at this forum around about 15 Dec (it wasn't a dedicated Litepresence Report back then) but just comments in the Cryptocurrencies by various members, I like many others were still riding the 28/29 November Euphoria of "Its going to the moon". So then I saw the beginnings of the Presence presentations of "Go to Cash" and stay there for a few months because its going down (based on previous boom busts). I thought at the time, no that can't be right Bitcoin has nowhere to go but up . . . my new normalcy bias getting in the way of rational logic. Nothing goes up by 1100% and doesn't correct with an appropriate period of consolidation.


I suppose I hadn't been following the detailed price action on Bitcoin prior to October and started paying attention later that month. However, as I began examining charts for other coins closely, they all seemed to exhibit the same characteristic, with varying minor degrees of changes of course. There is the typical rapid manic rise, then the inevitable 4/8ths to 5/8ths Fibonacci Retracement (50% to 62%), then there is what is known as a Dead Cat bounce where it rises again to 75-80% of the peak value, followed by this arching, curving downards consolidation phase which Presence terms as a "Dragon Tail". Check it out, pick any chart for any coin and you will see this characteristic.


Lets look at the April Spike again (some suggest which was brought on by the March 15, 2013 Cyprus Bail-In announcement):


https://www.dropbox.com/s/0ejj1sjc97dhep2/Bitcoin April 2013.jpg


Firstly, wouldn't you know we find a New Moon right at the Price Spike? I mean what are the chances of that? :-)


But here we see how such spikes naturally corrected as described above.


So then in December Presence is predicting "this and that" short term and nailing it nearly every time. And his basis for doing so is largely past chart comparisons (e.g. April 2013). So this is starting to make sense to me.


Add to the debate is Clif High's (Web Bots - halfpasthuman.com) prediction that BTC will hit $3405 on precisely 15 January 2014 and this will be the signal for the end of many things. The end of the rigging of the Gold and Silver markets, the end of the banksters control of everything, and basically the precursor to the end of the Fed by April 2014. But guess what? Its now 16 January 2014, at least where I'm at, and BTC is nowhere near $3405. Clif's predictive linguistics are accurate on many counts, but one thing they typically fail at is dates. Who knows, maybe what he is really seeing is 15 January 2015 or 15 January 2016, because he has been singing this collapse of the US Dollar, collapse of everything song probably since November 2010 as far as I can recall. It will happen one day, but who knows when that will be.


So am I sure Bitcoin is headed lower by 1 February? No I am not, but the indications from past boom-busts says it is. Also when we hit $1093 recently this created a line of resistance along with $1284 which Bitcoin at the moment seems incapable of penetrating (will post a chart tomorrow showing this).


Can I say one wild card exists to make the 1 Feb prediction wrong, and that is the fact that the next New Moon is on 30 January and the day after that, 31 January is Chinese New Year. Now out of 1.3 Billion Chinese, probably 99% have never even heard of Bitcoin, and even if they have, they will be hard pressed to be swayed from their favourite asset - Real Estate - in the next 15 Days. But you never know, if another 1-2 Million people all of a sudden decide they want 1 BTC out of the 11 Million available, then it could be game over for $1000.


Another thing that tells me Bitcoin needs this continuing consolidation phase. If you listen to the "Lets Talk Bitcoin" channel on YouTube, you will hear of this and that company needing to grow from 10 employees to 100, from 100 employees to 1000, how such and such company is moving to Chile or Argentina to escape an undesireable regulatory environment, etc. and this all needs to happen in the first 3 months of 2014. I mean lets get real, the best thing possible for Bitcoin not just as a currency, but as a technology, is for this continuing consolidation period to happen through to March/April, else we will just be repeating the Dotcom mania with Amazon and the likes of the late 1990's.

If we go down to say $750, when $900? Hmmm, not long, perhaps March or April, could be even sooner.
 
Yeah its not too far sighted to say prices will probably drop after january when this whole china regulation comes into effect but I hope it doesn't take long for it to recover.
 
Using Heiken Ashi Candlesticks in Charts

A good video here on why Traders use Heiken Ashi Candlesticks in their charts instead of default candlesticks:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zhx0bJf3geQ


Reason being is Heiken Ashi Candlesticks illustrate both up and down trends visually much better.


If you dig around any of the more detailed Crypto Trading Bot CoffeeScripts you will notice most all base trading on Heiken Ashi, so best to get used to them manually now.


Typically in a Script, a Heiken-Ashi Class is created and in there the math (methods) used to analyse candlesticks is defined.


Here are two references to read up on how Heiken-Ashi Candlesticks are evaluated - its not always the same, but rather varies depending on what is happening at the time (e.g. ha_method == 1, ha_method == 2, ha_method == 3, etc.):


http://daytrading.about.com/od/indicators/a/HeikinAshi.htm


http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:heikin_ashi


Of course you can customise any script you find, but first its important to understand which methods the professional traders use and why, and then perhaps other options which may be suitable for a Script you are trying to write to trade a certain set of circumstances.

Before unleashing any script on the market with "real money", I think its important to understand every aspect of the script inside and out. So it begins with figuring out all the indicators used (or that you plan to use) and then really researching them to the nth degree. In time it may well turn out that all you do is simply copy a Heiken Ashi Class from someone elses script into your own, because it works and its not possible to make it better. Still I want that personal verification first.
 
This thread is kinda growing stale from it's original platform and it's slightly showing. Who is peeping and who is :rolleyes:ing?
 
Last edited:
I had 0.0063 as the bottom, thus the 0.0064. Reached 0.0065. Oh well, missed it by a smidge. Seems on its way back up now. 0.00694.

If thinking this is a good trade, perhaps 20% in here and remainder 80% once it confirms look alike of 18, 19. 20 December.
 
I am looking to invest a little and would like some advice. I want to catch a innovative market on the way up. Right now I'm looking at the stagecoach, candlestick makers, and newspapers with a paywall. What would you suggest?
 
All in on Candlesticks

nayjevin said:
I am looking to invest a little and would like some advice. I want to catch a innovative market on the way up. Right now I'm looking at the stagecoach, candlestick makers, and newspapers with a paywall. What would you suggest?
Click to expand...

Personally I would be all in on Candlesticks. Bees going the way of the Dodo thanks to GMO and how much Paraffin wax will be available once the global economy really tanks? Added bonus, great barter item.


http://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/08/27/einstein-bees/


4 years? Oh well at least it would be an illuminated 4 years. :-)


I get it now, instead of looking at the Cryptos and watching Candlesticks, we should be buying them instead, literally.
 
I got some USD stuck a bit too high and would like to use the BTC elsewhere. You think PPC will be good to go again soon? I think I need to start following more than just NMC.

Novacoin has a surprisingly high price. The interest in these baffle me. But I think diversifying at BTC lows might be wise as it'll drag others along with the next panic bubble buy.
 
Last edited:
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