SomewhereInOz
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Recommend not moving on PPC just yet. New post in a few mins. Things BTC related to consider first.
The Litepresence Report on Cryptocurrency
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SomewhereInOz
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Penant Formations and their Resolution
A couple of key penants to watch in BTC:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/b3v2ws9ov0zxna3/Bitcoin Penance.jpg
Big Penant formed by Candlewicks
Small Penant formed by full Candlesticks
Penants typically like to resolve themselves decidedly one way or another, either down or up.
As we know moving from BTC into an Altcoin is decidedly bad prior to both big up movements and big down movements in BTC, right now for next 24-36 hours probably safest to just sit tight in BTC and watch.
In last few days BTC has moved down to test support on the small penant, but bounced nicely off of it. One thing to notice is declines on Full Moons can take 3-4 days following a full moon to realise.
Yes PPC found a spike bottom @ 0.0065 today, predictable based on past performance, but all you will be missing is a very near term move up in PPC (profitable yes) but then 4-5 days of blah (slight down and then more sideways action). The big action, if it comes, will be in the last week of the month. Once BTC proves that its not headed either for a significant breakdown, nor a breakout, but rather more sideways action, then PPC will be worth considering in the run up towards the end of the month.
Thing to watch now is BTC and the small penant. As the Ichimoku cloud indicates, is a signficant downside move out of the question? As will be seen later, perhaps this small penant is meaningless and between now and 24 January, all BTC will do is move sideways to slightly up. A decidedly strong move by BTC up from say $934 on 24 January, then would be something to watch as we approach the new moon on 30 January and Chinese New Year the day following. It could be up up and away and off to the races time.
However, if the past is any guide (e.g. April 2013 Spike and Consolidation), the blue dashed line shown in the chart should be the path BTC will take heading through February - two slightly rounding down curves (hard to draw with lines) however not as significantly rounded as last April because the candlewick spike high this time was not as extreme on the daily if that makes sense.
Again the April Chart:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/0ejj1sjc97dhep2/Bitcoin April 2013.jpg
Just lines on a chart here, but consider the coincidence of these dates:
10 April 2013 (New Moon) - $280 High
6 July 2013 - Consolidation Penant Complete - $63 Bottom
Move after this was a gradual move higher
DateDiff => 88 Days
6 July 2013 very close to a New Moon
4 December 2013 (New Moon) - $1242 High
Add 88 Days
2 March 2014
New Moon => 1 March 2014
Big Penant Resolution from lines on chart => 3 March 2014
Right now on the daily BTC:
Volume declining, Aroon continuing to show weakness, MACD undecided
88 Days?
8 is the Money Number
8th Character in Alphabet => H
88 = HH = Internet Speak for Heil Hitler
So here's to much sideways BTC action (modest up and modest down) in the coming days and even weeks so the Alts can be playable once again. Sieg Heil! (Hail to Victory)
A couple of key penants to watch in BTC:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/b3v2ws9ov0zxna3/Bitcoin Penance.jpg
Big Penant formed by Candlewicks
Small Penant formed by full Candlesticks
Penants typically like to resolve themselves decidedly one way or another, either down or up.
As we know moving from BTC into an Altcoin is decidedly bad prior to both big up movements and big down movements in BTC, right now for next 24-36 hours probably safest to just sit tight in BTC and watch.
In last few days BTC has moved down to test support on the small penant, but bounced nicely off of it. One thing to notice is declines on Full Moons can take 3-4 days following a full moon to realise.
Yes PPC found a spike bottom @ 0.0065 today, predictable based on past performance, but all you will be missing is a very near term move up in PPC (profitable yes) but then 4-5 days of blah (slight down and then more sideways action). The big action, if it comes, will be in the last week of the month. Once BTC proves that its not headed either for a significant breakdown, nor a breakout, but rather more sideways action, then PPC will be worth considering in the run up towards the end of the month.
Thing to watch now is BTC and the small penant. As the Ichimoku cloud indicates, is a signficant downside move out of the question? As will be seen later, perhaps this small penant is meaningless and between now and 24 January, all BTC will do is move sideways to slightly up. A decidedly strong move by BTC up from say $934 on 24 January, then would be something to watch as we approach the new moon on 30 January and Chinese New Year the day following. It could be up up and away and off to the races time.
However, if the past is any guide (e.g. April 2013 Spike and Consolidation), the blue dashed line shown in the chart should be the path BTC will take heading through February - two slightly rounding down curves (hard to draw with lines) however not as significantly rounded as last April because the candlewick spike high this time was not as extreme on the daily if that makes sense.
Again the April Chart:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/0ejj1sjc97dhep2/Bitcoin April 2013.jpg
Just lines on a chart here, but consider the coincidence of these dates:
10 April 2013 (New Moon) - $280 High
6 July 2013 - Consolidation Penant Complete - $63 Bottom
Move after this was a gradual move higher
DateDiff => 88 Days
6 July 2013 very close to a New Moon
4 December 2013 (New Moon) - $1242 High
Add 88 Days
2 March 2014
New Moon => 1 March 2014
Big Penant Resolution from lines on chart => 3 March 2014
Right now on the daily BTC:
Volume declining, Aroon continuing to show weakness, MACD undecided
88 Days?
8 is the Money Number
8th Character in Alphabet => H
88 = HH = Internet Speak for Heil Hitler
So here's to much sideways BTC action (modest up and modest down) in the coming days and even weeks so the Alts can be playable once again. Sieg Heil! (Hail to Victory)
Dianne
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Somewhere, thanks for taking the time to pass along all this information. It will take me a while to digest it, but it is very helpful; although it can go either way. I really don't think Chinese regulation at the end of the month is going to do much of anything.. I never count the Chinese out of anything. I feel certain they already have bank accounts set up in other areas of the world, and don't need Chinese banks to handle their money.
Do me a favor !!!! When it's time to buy, come into the forum and yell BUYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY !!!!!!!
Do me a favor !!!! When it's time to buy, come into the forum and yell BUYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY !!!!!!!
SomewhereInOz
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Sure thing. If on the off-chance that on 30 Jan 14 its approaching $988 (hows that, an 88 in the resistance testing number on that date?), besides yelling sell, sell, sell your PPC, NMC and XPM and get back into BTC, will add this for dramatic effect
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PUESBKlj7Hw
Otherwise, hoping I will be yelling buy, buy, buy @ $288 during some future Full Moon, but at the moment there appears to be a snowballs chance of that happening.
Dianne
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Sure thing. If on the off-chance that on 30 Jan 14 its approaching $988 (hows that, an 88 in the resistance testing number on that date?), besides yelling sell, sell, sell your PPC, NMC and XPM and get back into BTC, will add this for dramatic effect
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PUESBKlj7Hw
Otherwise, hoping I will be yelling buy, buy, buy @ $288 during some future Full Moon, but at the moment there appears to be a snowballs chance of that happening.
LOL I can almost assure you if I buy into btc now at $814., the price will be $288. by January 30. I'll tell you guys if and when I buy, so you can position yourself for a huge crash
)) .. It never fails !!Neil Desmond
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LOL I can almost assure you if I buy into btc now at $814., the price will be $288. by January 30. I'll tell you guys if and when I buy, so you can position yourself for a huge crash
Chute! If it goes down to $288/btc, I'm going to spend every penny I have in my exchange account to buy bitcoins for that price!
Consider trying something like this: take whatever amount of dollars you're willing to trade for bitcoins, take a fraction of it (e.g., 1/4 or 1/5 of it), use that fraction to buy bitcoins @ $814/btc, and if it does go down to $288, use the remaining 3/4 or 4/5 of dollars remaining to buy more bitcoins at that price. At least that way you'll have some bitcoins; and if the price does go down by that much, you'll have a good portion of your money left to be able to purchase bitcoins at that price.
PaulConventionWV
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LOL I can almost assure you if I buy into btc now at $814., the price will be $288. by January 30. I'll tell you guys if and when I buy, so you can position yourself for a huge crash
I'm guessing you didn't buy in...
XTreat
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LOL I can almost assure you if I buy into btc now at $814., the price will be $288. by January 30. I'll tell you guys if and when I buy, so you can position yourself for a huge crash
I know you are saying this in jest, but please consider there are alternate ways to invest your fiat than just buying and selling in lump sums on the turn of the market. Dollar cost averaging works with btc just as well as it does with mutual funds in your IRA (or PM's as well). Consider just buying a small amount on a monthly or weekly basis instead of trying to time the market. In the long run you will probably be better off than trying to time the market unless you have an uncanny skill or immense knowledge of markets, which would make you a member of a small minority.
FSP-Rebel
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Correct, buying into BTC doesn't mean you have to purchase one in full right up front. Consider buying .1 now and trend your buys accordingly. If you're bullish, it doesn't really matter what you buy your coins for now as long as you can get your hands on some and lock em down.
SomewhereInOz
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Bitcoin Hourly Chart - 20 Jan 14
A review of the BTCUSD Hourly chart at this moment shows that it is adhering nicely to the small penant ->
https://www.dropbox.com/s/rrfea5wz2z7eb9d/Bitcoin Hourly - 20 Jan 14.jpg
Which means that if all holds true to form, in 6-8 hours time it should bounce off of somewhere around $945 and head back down oscillating its way towards 24 January where a decision will be required. Will it be up from there or down?
If the past is our guide it should be down. How far down? Well it should be a gradual sloping down on the daily. If its up and decidedly up, then watch out because we will have a break from the past and making predictions could get a bit more difficult going forward.
Also notice on the hourly the Bollinger Bands, blue on top and red on bottom. As John Bollinger suggested, candles like to stay within these bands the majority of the time. When they pierce the band a certain number of times in either direction you can generally expect a short term reversal in direction.
So at the beginning of the chart when all the green candles were piercing through the bands (by my count 8 times) in the move up to $972 and resistance, we could tell that a downward move was coming, particularly since a full moon was just hours away.
8 is quite a lot and from my experience the max you will find. Usually you count 5 and then on the 6th one it reverses direction.
We are actually experiencing another 8 piercings at the moment, so perhaps a minor reversal or sideways action here before it moves up to test resistance.
Knowing this and playing the move from $875 to $945 is 8%. 0.5% to the exchange so 7.5% over 2-3 days is not too shabby.
Anyway, if you see BTC on Mt Gox range bound around a mean price of $920 to $930ish for the next 4 days this is why. It will seem stuck going nowhere, but its using the time to figure out if its going to breakout or breakdown.
As a final aside, not sure how one can code such penant resistance and support line interpretations into a trading Bot, but if possible it could be very worthwhile to figure out. Bots I have seen trade on moving averages and as you can see they are missing out on the best action.
A review of the BTCUSD Hourly chart at this moment shows that it is adhering nicely to the small penant ->
https://www.dropbox.com/s/rrfea5wz2z7eb9d/Bitcoin Hourly - 20 Jan 14.jpg
Which means that if all holds true to form, in 6-8 hours time it should bounce off of somewhere around $945 and head back down oscillating its way towards 24 January where a decision will be required. Will it be up from there or down?
If the past is our guide it should be down. How far down? Well it should be a gradual sloping down on the daily. If its up and decidedly up, then watch out because we will have a break from the past and making predictions could get a bit more difficult going forward.
Also notice on the hourly the Bollinger Bands, blue on top and red on bottom. As John Bollinger suggested, candles like to stay within these bands the majority of the time. When they pierce the band a certain number of times in either direction you can generally expect a short term reversal in direction.
So at the beginning of the chart when all the green candles were piercing through the bands (by my count 8 times) in the move up to $972 and resistance, we could tell that a downward move was coming, particularly since a full moon was just hours away.
8 is quite a lot and from my experience the max you will find. Usually you count 5 and then on the 6th one it reverses direction.
We are actually experiencing another 8 piercings at the moment, so perhaps a minor reversal or sideways action here before it moves up to test resistance.
Knowing this and playing the move from $875 to $945 is 8%. 0.5% to the exchange so 7.5% over 2-3 days is not too shabby.
Anyway, if you see BTC on Mt Gox range bound around a mean price of $920 to $930ish for the next 4 days this is why. It will seem stuck going nowhere, but its using the time to figure out if its going to breakout or breakdown.
As a final aside, not sure how one can code such penant resistance and support line interpretations into a trading Bot, but if possible it could be very worthwhile to figure out. Bots I have seen trade on moving averages and as you can see they are missing out on the best action.
Last edited:
Dianne
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That was great advice, thank you !!
Dianne
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My son was asking me to when it was around 12.00 ... I poo poo'ed the idea; now I'm positioned with fiat on the exchange to buy one btc if it stays around this price. I would love to see it go back to $285. ish which is probably where it belongs. But it is a great idea to throw a little in on a monthly basis instead of going "all in".
PaulConventionWV
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I honestly doubt that's where it belongs. If I'm not mistaken the mean increase is about .6% per day and that makes the mean price for now about twice that if not a little more. It may go down, but I wouldn't count on it. I'm no expert but it has been very bullish for the last few weeks. I traded on the intermediate-term trends and made some money but I'm just going to hold for now regardless of whether it goes up or down. I don't want to miss out if it starts breaking out.
Dianne
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I don't blame ya !!! I would hold too ... There are so many experiments with btc at the moment; who knows where it will lead. Even the banksters may be testing the market to see how high they can bring it, before people back off. I Sure would have preferred experimenting when it was $12.00; rather than $830. My Bad, lol.
Neil Desmond
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An alternative way of making an "investment" in bitcoins is to purchase bitcoin mining ASIC hardware, and mine bitcoins. That's what I'm mainly doing to acquire bitcoins.
SomewhereInOz
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Comparing Apples with Apples and Arriving at a Top 10 Altcoin List
Most on here have heard of and often refer to Coinmarketcap.com to get an idea of the market cap (market capitalization . . . given this is largely an American audience, I will try to stick to relatable grammar and Z'ed's as required) for both the Cryptocurrency Marketplace in total and also a given Altcoin's price as compared to BTC:
http://coinmarketcap.com/
Firstly, if you are trading based on the crude market cap graphs shown on this site, and the reported percentage increases, then you will most likely be faced with disappointment after disappointment with your trades.
Market Cap is quite simply the known existing mined coin supply x the current price/coin.
To properly trade, and profit from your trading, you must have detailed chart information for a given equity, or in this case Crypto Coins. An obvious observation to most on here, but some newies in the future, might find this post and might like to know this.
However, this site (coinmarketcap.com) is very useful in arriving at basic price discovery information, and particularly new coins coming to market which may be of interest. Used in this context, it is very valuable.
Presently showing 78 coins, no doubt within 2-3 months we will see over 150 coins, if not 200 coins listed. I remember first discovering this website and finding less than 10 coins listed, how things have changed in just 6 months.
So how do you decide if an obscure Altcoin might be a potential investment which is destined for a postive future? Deriving a top 10 list makes sense to me, or namely to find your top 10 coins to watch besides Bitcoin.
First thing to remember is that no coin you see in this list alters majorly from the Bitcoin model, no matter the hype and spin we may read on the internet, and thus all are copycat coins to the Bitcoin Model. Where Bitcoin shines is that it has survived the crucial 5 year introductory phase that is required for revolutionary internet startup ideas (1 Jan 2009 -> 1 Jan 2014), and so if the concept continues to gain traction this year of 2014 should be the year of a significant move in increased usage and price, just as the 5 year marker was critical to Facebook, Twitter and the likes.
This fellows video explains the concept quite well:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHUPPYzzZrI
Some coins have been created by developers knowing Bitcoin is gaining traction and popularity, and are hoping to profit themselves in the very short term, basically at your expense. As an example, and as mentioned previously, we have 42Coin which is now trading around 400 BTC/Coin and headed to zero very fast (where it belongs), most likely before 8 Feb 14 - their proposed date of surpassing all other new Altcoin introductions with a market cap of $42,000,000. Today the market cap for 42Coin is only $365,840 and this is not just a trend lower, this most likely is the highest you will ever see it again going forward from here. The problem? Miners are figuring out fast that it is very unprofitable short term to mine it, and are abandoning ship. With no miners all that will be available to buy are the coins pre-mined by the developer, and they didn't mine all that many so it tells me they are anticipating a short lifespan for the coin.
Lets put it this way. If you are a new coin developer with an idea for a new spin on things (e.g. only 42 coins ever to be available), and you introduce the coin to miners and the community in general, then you basically have less than a month to make money, pay for your expenses in developing the coin and then get your profits out (before you are discovered) . . . evidently the plan being persecuted by the 42Coin developers. So if you can capture 80% of the ACTUAL market cap through pre-mining and pumping and dumping, or in this case $290K, then you are onto a good thing in your own terms aren't you, particularly if you are working out of your mothers basement or something. ;-) Then their is always that next coin idea right around the corner. Sure beats buying a ton of paraffin and setting up a Candlestick factory in the basement.
So the next coin on the dodgy list is Quarkcoin. Introduced late last year basically 80-90% pre-mined, today all 247,314,337 coins have been mined and its on a hope and a prayer that it goes up from here. Not happening, never going to happen. With a market cap of $25,755,967, 80% is a whopping $20.6 Million on this pump and dump scheme. Just think of all the Candles you can buy with that. Gee, enough to light up a small city for a few years.
So when looking at the coin list we definitely want to quickly be able to see % mined coins and know which are mined out and which are not. We also want to know which coins are popular and are actively being mined to keep supply coming onto the market.
I can tell you that the following coins are also mostly mined out and so I wouldn't touch them:
Infinitecoin (IFC)
Zetacoin (ZET)
Ixcoin (IXC)
Will tell you how I know this in a minute.
The other problem with coinmarketcap.com is it includes coins that can't be mined (Ripples, Mastercoin, Nxt), or are actually shares and not coins (e.g. Protoshares), so this is like comparing apples to oranges. Yes it is possible to switch off non-mineable coins to derive a top 10 list but Protoshares still hangs around. And what of the total supply vs the total planned to be mined?
At any stage, to determine which coins are popular to the miners, it is useful to visit a site like www.multipool.us. Without an account there I believe you can see the top 5 Scrypt coins and the top 5 Sha-256 coins being mined. If it takes creating an account (free) to determine this info then it is worthwhile. What multipool.us is, is a mining site where every minute the servers compute the most profitable coin to mine and it switches mining over to that coin. As I type this EAC is the currently mined Scrypt coin and BTC is the currently mined Sha-256 coin. Profitability is determined by a simple equation (example later) which is based on the current blockchain difficulty for the coin and up to the minute price movement up or down. The problem is, as a miner in the pool, you end up with small bits of coins like EAC, ARG, CAP, MEC, MNC and the likes which are hard to get off multipool.us and over to an exchange to sell, because the minimum coin withdrawal amount is generally set to at least 1 coin.
As I mine through this site, it provides quick feedback during the day as to which Scrypt coin might be making a move up. Then by tracking the weekly charts for what turns out to be very small number of coins, what I do is abandon the pool, but rather focus on mining certain coin on my own in anticipation that after mining 0.8 or 0.9 BTC's worth (7-8 days), I can then get them onto the exchange and convert them quickly into 1 BTC. Its kinda like mining and trading at the same time, but it slowly adds more BTC into the trading account to trade those coins which I can't mine (e.g. BTC, PPC, XPM, NMC).
Another site for checking out an Altcoins price, difficulty and profitability is coinplorer.com. Here we see why EAC has become more profitable given the recent minor uptick in price movement, however the long term price chart is not so encouraging so at the moment its not a coin to mine in my opinion (nor invest in), but rather just one to watch as of late its been in the top 5 mining list quite a bit.
Profitability formula found at Coinplorer:
MiningProfit(Date) = ExchangeRate(Date,EAC-BTC) * AvgDifficulty(Date,BTC) / AvgDifficulty(Date,EAC)
So what is the secret to discover a true apples to apples Altcoin top 10 list?
This site -> http://cryptmarketcap.com/
Here we don't find any coins which are un-mineable and Protoshares is not listed. Also we can see verification that Quarkcoin is totally mined out already, so I abandon it visually as I scan the list.
One coin which is making a good move is Dogecoin, but notice how since its introduction around 8 December it is already 30% mined. Over at Multipool.us during the past month, this is the coin which has been the top mined coin the majority of the time and so this is why. It will be interesting over the next couple of months to see if it can catch up with NMC (which is 37% mined at the moment) in terms of Market Cap.
Worldcoin is interesting in the fact that it is only 15% mined yet still so high up on the list. It wouldn't take much action for it to surpass Megacoin (MEC) - either mining or price movement. After a nice move up around 8 December it has worked through a long period of consolidation so who knows it could be headed higher and just the coin to mine at the moment, in the run up to the end of the month. One thing that put me off on Worldcoin was in downloading and synchronizing its wallet took me forever (10 days). Since the start of the year WDC has been on the multipool top 5 list the majority of the time, usually in 4th or 5th place. As an older coin, unlike BTC I couldn't find a Bootstrap torrent to download to speed things up. Hopefully this will change for WDC so more people will find interest in it. Otherwise the developers seem to be putting effort into their website and in creating a following. So at this moment I will put WDC near the top of my Top 5 list for mining.
Statistically speaking, over at multipool.us (and for this you do need to register an account to find this information), of the coins being mined, here is the percentage of miners who are mining each coin:
Dogecoin (DOGE) - 80% - Just switched back to being the main pool coin
Earthcoin (EAC) - 15% - residual mining following the recent switch to DOGE
Worldcoin (WDC) - 2.6%
Mooncoin (MOON) - 0.8%
Litecoin (LTC) - 0.6%
Digitalcoin (DGC) - 0.5%
Remainder of 20 Mineable Coins - <1%
So based on this continued support for mining Dogecoin, regardless of price its Market Cap should continue to rise and I anticipate it will overtake Quarkcoin in the listings at cryptmarketcap.com very quickly (2 weeks?).
From my experiences Litecoin is now just too unprofitable to mine based on the rapidly rising difficulty. Therefore it rarely ranks in the top 5 list at Multipool. There are a number of other dedicated mining sites for it (e.g. wemineltc.com), so based on popularity it will continue to grow in Market Cap. Basically it is now close to 30% mined and I suspect the strong mining rate will continue, just that it will rarely show up as profitable as compared to other alternatives (e.g. how quick to turn mining efforts into 1 BTC).
If you scroll down the list at coinmarketcap.com to 53rd place you will find Mooncoin and a 311% move on the day, which is quite a surprise to me. Mooncoin is not yet listed on cryptmarketcap.com. Will share a story about Mooncoin in another post.
Hopefully something here assists in sorting through the Altcoins and deriving your own Top 10 list of coins to watch. For the moment here is mine:
Trading Potential (Top 10)
Bitcoin (BTC)
Litecoin (LTC)
Peercoin (PPC)
Namecoin (NMC)
Primecoin (XPM)
Worldcoin (WDC)
Novacoin (NVC)
Feathercoin (FTC)
Megacoin (MEC)
Digitalcoin (DGC)
Dogecoin (DOGE)
Mining Potential (Top 6)
Worldcoin (WDC)
Dogecoin (DOGE)
Argentum (ARG)
Megacoin (MEC)
Digitalcoin (DGC)
Mooncoin (MOON) - Mining Completed
Most on here have heard of and often refer to Coinmarketcap.com to get an idea of the market cap (market capitalization . . . given this is largely an American audience, I will try to stick to relatable grammar and Z'ed's as required) for both the Cryptocurrency Marketplace in total and also a given Altcoin's price as compared to BTC:
http://coinmarketcap.com/
Firstly, if you are trading based on the crude market cap graphs shown on this site, and the reported percentage increases, then you will most likely be faced with disappointment after disappointment with your trades.
Market Cap is quite simply the known existing mined coin supply x the current price/coin.
To properly trade, and profit from your trading, you must have detailed chart information for a given equity, or in this case Crypto Coins. An obvious observation to most on here, but some newies in the future, might find this post and might like to know this.
However, this site (coinmarketcap.com) is very useful in arriving at basic price discovery information, and particularly new coins coming to market which may be of interest. Used in this context, it is very valuable.
Presently showing 78 coins, no doubt within 2-3 months we will see over 150 coins, if not 200 coins listed. I remember first discovering this website and finding less than 10 coins listed, how things have changed in just 6 months.
So how do you decide if an obscure Altcoin might be a potential investment which is destined for a postive future? Deriving a top 10 list makes sense to me, or namely to find your top 10 coins to watch besides Bitcoin.
First thing to remember is that no coin you see in this list alters majorly from the Bitcoin model, no matter the hype and spin we may read on the internet, and thus all are copycat coins to the Bitcoin Model. Where Bitcoin shines is that it has survived the crucial 5 year introductory phase that is required for revolutionary internet startup ideas (1 Jan 2009 -> 1 Jan 2014), and so if the concept continues to gain traction this year of 2014 should be the year of a significant move in increased usage and price, just as the 5 year marker was critical to Facebook, Twitter and the likes.
This fellows video explains the concept quite well:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHUPPYzzZrI
Some coins have been created by developers knowing Bitcoin is gaining traction and popularity, and are hoping to profit themselves in the very short term, basically at your expense. As an example, and as mentioned previously, we have 42Coin which is now trading around 400 BTC/Coin and headed to zero very fast (where it belongs), most likely before 8 Feb 14 - their proposed date of surpassing all other new Altcoin introductions with a market cap of $42,000,000. Today the market cap for 42Coin is only $365,840 and this is not just a trend lower, this most likely is the highest you will ever see it again going forward from here. The problem? Miners are figuring out fast that it is very unprofitable short term to mine it, and are abandoning ship. With no miners all that will be available to buy are the coins pre-mined by the developer, and they didn't mine all that many so it tells me they are anticipating a short lifespan for the coin.
Lets put it this way. If you are a new coin developer with an idea for a new spin on things (e.g. only 42 coins ever to be available), and you introduce the coin to miners and the community in general, then you basically have less than a month to make money, pay for your expenses in developing the coin and then get your profits out (before you are discovered) . . . evidently the plan being persecuted by the 42Coin developers. So if you can capture 80% of the ACTUAL market cap through pre-mining and pumping and dumping, or in this case $290K, then you are onto a good thing in your own terms aren't you, particularly if you are working out of your mothers basement or something. ;-) Then their is always that next coin idea right around the corner. Sure beats buying a ton of paraffin and setting up a Candlestick factory in the basement.
So the next coin on the dodgy list is Quarkcoin. Introduced late last year basically 80-90% pre-mined, today all 247,314,337 coins have been mined and its on a hope and a prayer that it goes up from here. Not happening, never going to happen. With a market cap of $25,755,967, 80% is a whopping $20.6 Million on this pump and dump scheme. Just think of all the Candles you can buy with that. Gee, enough to light up a small city for a few years.
So when looking at the coin list we definitely want to quickly be able to see % mined coins and know which are mined out and which are not. We also want to know which coins are popular and are actively being mined to keep supply coming onto the market.
I can tell you that the following coins are also mostly mined out and so I wouldn't touch them:
Infinitecoin (IFC)
Zetacoin (ZET)
Ixcoin (IXC)
Will tell you how I know this in a minute.
The other problem with coinmarketcap.com is it includes coins that can't be mined (Ripples, Mastercoin, Nxt), or are actually shares and not coins (e.g. Protoshares), so this is like comparing apples to oranges. Yes it is possible to switch off non-mineable coins to derive a top 10 list but Protoshares still hangs around. And what of the total supply vs the total planned to be mined?
At any stage, to determine which coins are popular to the miners, it is useful to visit a site like www.multipool.us. Without an account there I believe you can see the top 5 Scrypt coins and the top 5 Sha-256 coins being mined. If it takes creating an account (free) to determine this info then it is worthwhile. What multipool.us is, is a mining site where every minute the servers compute the most profitable coin to mine and it switches mining over to that coin. As I type this EAC is the currently mined Scrypt coin and BTC is the currently mined Sha-256 coin. Profitability is determined by a simple equation (example later) which is based on the current blockchain difficulty for the coin and up to the minute price movement up or down. The problem is, as a miner in the pool, you end up with small bits of coins like EAC, ARG, CAP, MEC, MNC and the likes which are hard to get off multipool.us and over to an exchange to sell, because the minimum coin withdrawal amount is generally set to at least 1 coin.
As I mine through this site, it provides quick feedback during the day as to which Scrypt coin might be making a move up. Then by tracking the weekly charts for what turns out to be very small number of coins, what I do is abandon the pool, but rather focus on mining certain coin on my own in anticipation that after mining 0.8 or 0.9 BTC's worth (7-8 days), I can then get them onto the exchange and convert them quickly into 1 BTC. Its kinda like mining and trading at the same time, but it slowly adds more BTC into the trading account to trade those coins which I can't mine (e.g. BTC, PPC, XPM, NMC).
Another site for checking out an Altcoins price, difficulty and profitability is coinplorer.com. Here we see why EAC has become more profitable given the recent minor uptick in price movement, however the long term price chart is not so encouraging so at the moment its not a coin to mine in my opinion (nor invest in), but rather just one to watch as of late its been in the top 5 mining list quite a bit.
Profitability formula found at Coinplorer:
MiningProfit(Date) = ExchangeRate(Date,EAC-BTC) * AvgDifficulty(Date,BTC) / AvgDifficulty(Date,EAC)
So what is the secret to discover a true apples to apples Altcoin top 10 list?
This site -> http://cryptmarketcap.com/
Here we don't find any coins which are un-mineable and Protoshares is not listed. Also we can see verification that Quarkcoin is totally mined out already, so I abandon it visually as I scan the list.
One coin which is making a good move is Dogecoin, but notice how since its introduction around 8 December it is already 30% mined. Over at Multipool.us during the past month, this is the coin which has been the top mined coin the majority of the time and so this is why. It will be interesting over the next couple of months to see if it can catch up with NMC (which is 37% mined at the moment) in terms of Market Cap.
Worldcoin is interesting in the fact that it is only 15% mined yet still so high up on the list. It wouldn't take much action for it to surpass Megacoin (MEC) - either mining or price movement. After a nice move up around 8 December it has worked through a long period of consolidation so who knows it could be headed higher and just the coin to mine at the moment, in the run up to the end of the month. One thing that put me off on Worldcoin was in downloading and synchronizing its wallet took me forever (10 days). Since the start of the year WDC has been on the multipool top 5 list the majority of the time, usually in 4th or 5th place. As an older coin, unlike BTC I couldn't find a Bootstrap torrent to download to speed things up. Hopefully this will change for WDC so more people will find interest in it. Otherwise the developers seem to be putting effort into their website and in creating a following. So at this moment I will put WDC near the top of my Top 5 list for mining.
Statistically speaking, over at multipool.us (and for this you do need to register an account to find this information), of the coins being mined, here is the percentage of miners who are mining each coin:
Dogecoin (DOGE) - 80% - Just switched back to being the main pool coin
Earthcoin (EAC) - 15% - residual mining following the recent switch to DOGE
Worldcoin (WDC) - 2.6%
Mooncoin (MOON) - 0.8%
Litecoin (LTC) - 0.6%
Digitalcoin (DGC) - 0.5%
Remainder of 20 Mineable Coins - <1%
So based on this continued support for mining Dogecoin, regardless of price its Market Cap should continue to rise and I anticipate it will overtake Quarkcoin in the listings at cryptmarketcap.com very quickly (2 weeks?).
From my experiences Litecoin is now just too unprofitable to mine based on the rapidly rising difficulty. Therefore it rarely ranks in the top 5 list at Multipool. There are a number of other dedicated mining sites for it (e.g. wemineltc.com), so based on popularity it will continue to grow in Market Cap. Basically it is now close to 30% mined and I suspect the strong mining rate will continue, just that it will rarely show up as profitable as compared to other alternatives (e.g. how quick to turn mining efforts into 1 BTC).
If you scroll down the list at coinmarketcap.com to 53rd place you will find Mooncoin and a 311% move on the day, which is quite a surprise to me. Mooncoin is not yet listed on cryptmarketcap.com. Will share a story about Mooncoin in another post.
Hopefully something here assists in sorting through the Altcoins and deriving your own Top 10 list of coins to watch. For the moment here is mine:
Trading Potential (Top 10)
Bitcoin (BTC)
Litecoin (LTC)
Peercoin (PPC)
Namecoin (NMC)
Primecoin (XPM)
Worldcoin (WDC)
Novacoin (NVC)
Feathercoin (FTC)
Megacoin (MEC)
Digitalcoin (DGC)
Dogecoin (DOGE)
Mining Potential (Top 6)
Worldcoin (WDC)
Dogecoin (DOGE)
Argentum (ARG)
Megacoin (MEC)
Digitalcoin (DGC)
Mooncoin (MOON) - Mining Completed
SomewhereInOz
Member
- Joined
- Jan 9, 2014
- Messages
- 361
Bitcoin Penant Resistance Achieved
While typing all that, it appears BTCUSD has hit penant resistance, tested it and for the moment headed back down:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/gwujp59ppfc2r1b/Bitcoin Hourly - 20 Jan 14 -2.jpg
Only two piercings of the upper BB shown here, but on the 5 minute chart there were 6 attempts to escape the upper Bollinger Band there and it didn't like it and decided to turn back down. If daytrading this, you would probably be trading off the 5 minute at this stage and planning your best spot place to sell. Max price achieved looks to be $960, but on the daily it will probably appear to be closer to $945ish.
So from here we go back down, or do we? There is no hard and fast rule that BTC needs to stay in this Penant, it can leave at anytime it wishes. It's just that the majority of the time it will adhere to the Penant until completion and then decide.
While typing all that, it appears BTCUSD has hit penant resistance, tested it and for the moment headed back down:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/gwujp59ppfc2r1b/Bitcoin Hourly - 20 Jan 14 -2.jpg
Only two piercings of the upper BB shown here, but on the 5 minute chart there were 6 attempts to escape the upper Bollinger Band there and it didn't like it and decided to turn back down. If daytrading this, you would probably be trading off the 5 minute at this stage and planning your best spot place to sell. Max price achieved looks to be $960, but on the daily it will probably appear to be closer to $945ish.
So from here we go back down, or do we? There is no hard and fast rule that BTC needs to stay in this Penant, it can leave at anytime it wishes. It's just that the majority of the time it will adhere to the Penant until completion and then decide.
PaulConventionWV
Member
- Joined
- Apr 26, 2011
- Messages
- 16,041
Yes, many of us were aware of BTC early and yet did nothing, myself included. It will sting me for a long time that I didn't act when I first heard of it, but I'm not dwelling on it. There's still money to be made. If I had simply held when I first bought in, I could have realized an 11x return but alas, I lost interest after the first crash, too. It is what it is.
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