The Litepresence Report on Cryptocurrency

[lotsOfCake]

guys if youre awake
http://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/okcoin/ltccny
3m

i'm guessing temporarily oversold though so i'm trying not to make like a lemming off a cliff

 

[Neil Desmond]

Yes. it'll drop back down to $2500 after reaching $10K

This market can't be predicted. Bitcoin honey badger don't give a shit.

Then I shall sell 1 bitcoin when it hits $10k/btc, and buy 4 when it goes back down to $2.5k/btc.

 

[XTreat]

I am going to follow your advice, I sold @ $942 I guess I'll see what it looks like in the AM.

 

[FSP-Rebel]

Lots of New money infecting charts, 963+ big. Pres wat u say?

 

[XTreat]

I am really interested to see if this plays out the way Pres is predicting. So far so good.

 

[nayjevin]

I would like to use Bitcoin to buy an item or make a funds transfer. However it is too volatile, time consuming, unsecure, and technically difficult, for I have spent a mere 10,000 hours learning computers. Unfortunately its intrinsic value seems to be as a speculation vehicle. Am I wrong?

 

[dannno]

I would like to use Bitcoin to buy an item or make a funds transfer. However it is too volatile, time consuming, unsecure, and technically difficult, for I have spent a mere 10,000 hours learning computers. Unfortunately its intrinsic value seems to be as a speculation vehicle. Am I wrong?

The times when the market has peaked above the current market values of the day on any given day are often very short, followed by a relatively swift downward correction followed by a relatively stable upward trend. As long as there hasn't been a huge upward movement in the last few days then if you buy bitcoin, it will probably be more valuable in a few days or weeks.

If there's something specific you want to buy with bitcoin, then buy the bitcoin and buy the item soon after.

Otherwise I'd wait for a correction and load up on some and then wait for it to become more valuable and you can buy items using your profits. If you can pick some up in the 800s range in the next few days or so that would probably be a good buy. Or maybe there will be a big upward movement with new money and we will never see prices below $1k again, hard to say.

 

[nayjevin]

To save 2.5% over PayPal? At the risk of having it stolen from me in the process? I'm just saying widespread adoption may be impossible, and current value speculation may be driven by that hope. Who wants this product? Looks to me like it's high level techs who would wait for the next highway exit on 'E' to save .9 cents per gallon. .00083% of the population? Oh, + drug kingpins who aren't too stoned to learn the thing.

 

[dannno]

To save 2.5% over PayPal? At the risk of having it stolen from me in the process? I'm just saying widespread adoption may be impossible, and current value speculation may be driven by that hope. Who wants this product? Looks to me like it's high level techs who would wait for the next highway exit on 'E' to save .9 cents per gallon. .00083% of the population? Oh, + drug kingpins who aren't too stoned to learn the thing.

Wow you really think saving 2.5% over paypal is the reason why bitcoin was invented?

How about the fact that the government cannot counterfeit bitcoin?

 

[XTreat]

To save 2.5% over PayPal? At the risk of having it stolen from me in the process? I'm just saying widespread adoption may be impossible, and current value speculation may be driven by that hope. Who wants this product? Looks to me like it's high level techs who would wait for the next highway exit on 'E' to save .9 cents per gallon. .00083% of the population? Oh, + drug kingpins who aren't too stoned to learn the thing.

The great thing about a free market currency is you can choose not to use it.

 

[nayjevin]

Wow you really think saving 2.5% over paypal is the reason why bitcoin was invented?

How about the fact that the government cannot counterfeit bitcoin?

I like the idea of that, I'm not commenting on what the intentions are. But reality right now is that the supply of Cryptos is infinitely inflatable. The price of my bitcoin is determined by where other people's money goes. If I'm trading bitcoin, I trade it to USD to ensure 'stability' of my investment LOL

Price of bitcoin = eventual usefulness ( subjective value) + speculated future value.

It may be the best chance to profit (off of whom?) in the world, but it is currently unsuited to be what every coin claims to be. A way to easily and securely transfer money without fees. There are huge fees the way most people do it, it is difficult and time consuming, ( time is money) and be careful using it.

'Investing' in it is speculative. That's fine. Using it, utility, is fine... go ahead and end up bald if you want to. Jumping in now is not what it seems to me that people believe it to be. A chance to be a day trader (fun, cheap, excellent learning experience). A chance to learn about computers, currency, and security. Excellent tool for that. Also a chance to hold and get a good return, or not. Better, it seems, than many possible places for money, depending on risk factor evaluation (including your ability to resist being superstitious about graphs).

But there are now millions of traders with varying exit points, many of whom don't really believe in btc future. They are smarter than me. The prices are where they should be. Right?

 

[nayjevin]

The other two things I was surprised to learn is that it's not even close to instant and it's the opposite of anonymous. If the IRS could give cash the properties of bitcoin they would... it's totally trackable. I originally thought it was an intrinsic value in that kingpins would want to use it. But metal suitcases are cheaper than fulltime IT's.

So it seems to me for legal people without technical knowledge, PayPal is worth 2.5%.

But I am also pretty sore I didn't get in at $.01.

 

[muh_roads]

I like the idea of that, I'm not commenting on what the intentions are. But reality right now is that the supply of Cryptos is infinitely inflatable. The price of my bitcoin is determined by where other people's money goes. If I'm trading bitcoin, I trade it to USD to ensure 'stability' of my investment LOL

Price of bitcoin = eventual usefulness ( subjective value) + speculated future value.

It may be the best chance to profit (off of whom?) in the world, but it is currently unsuited to be what every coin claims to be. A way to easily and securely transfer money without fees. There are huge fees the way most people do it, it is difficult and time consuming, ( time is money) and be careful using it.

'Investing' in it is speculative. That's fine. Using it, utility, is fine... go ahead and end up bald if you want to. Jumping in now is not what it seems to me that people believe it to be. A chance to be a day trader (fun, cheap, excellent learning experience). A chance to learn about computers, currency, and security. Excellent tool for that. Also a chance to hold and get a good return, or not. Better, it seems, than many possible places for money, depending on risk factor evaluation (including your ability to resist being superstitious about graphs).

But there are now millions of traders with varying exit points, many of whom don't really believe in btc future. They are smarter than me. The prices are where they should be. Right?

Then worst case scenario is that the surviving alts meet parity with each other. I think there is enough Quadrillions in the central banker economy to spread among early Bitcoin, early Litecoin and early Namecoin users to make all holders the new elite if the 100% deflationary experiment works.

One of them will survive. Possibly 5 of them. Possibly 10 of them. But most will consolidate and eat each other alive. The Bitcoin protocol saving 2.5% is actually a very big deal. Doritos removes a few chips and adds air to save 0.1%.

You can send a billion $$$ to the other side of the world instantly for 9 cents. You don't find that interesting? Capital controls can't hold back business anymore. Sanction lines in the sand mean nothing now. The utility value of Bitcoin is here to stay. And if people don't see that they are going to miss a huge boat.

The price will be where it is at because weak hands will be bought by those that understand moving from an inflationary system and into a deflationary system. Could Bitcoin fatally fail 2-3 years from now in the code? Possibly. But that is 3 years from now. Bitcoin has a 3-4 figure % gain YOY since inception in 2009. Enjoy the ride and sell when you wish.

The free market will decide whether they find it useful or not.

 

[dannno]

The other two things I was surprised to learn is that it's not even close to instant and it's the opposite of anonymous. If the IRS could give cash the properties of bitcoin they would... it's totally trackable.

Ok so the IRS gets records that you bought some coin at coinbase through your bank.

Then you transfer that to an anonymous wallet. Then another. And another. Where in the transaction log does it say if you are buying something or sending it to yourself? How do they track that? Bitcoin is like the free market in that it can be either anonymous or not anonymous depending on how you use it.

 

[nayjevin]

Then worst case scenario is that the surviving alts meet parity with each other. I think there is enough Quadrillions in the central banker economy to spread among early Bitcoin, early Litecoin and early Namecoin users to make all holders the new elite if the 100% deflationary experiment works.

That's a real reason for investment. My numbers don't come out quite the same. But what, I'm trying to calculate better than a world of economists who have had a chance to get in, and are saying bitcoin is worth about 1,000 USD, including its value as a speculation instrument? If I get in now I'm betting I can make my life easier or better using it, or others will, or I can get out at the right time, or PROFIT. It is only my clear moral superiority which makes the latter so enticing

One of them will survive. Possibly 5 of them. Possibly 10 of them. But most will consolidate and eat each other alive.

I am just as certain. What are your thoughts (anyone's) on the odds of an eventual virtual monopoly, duopoly, etc? What odds that #1 crypto does not exist? Odds that eventual #1 released by central bankers and adopted by the masses ala groupon? These kind of question marks make my prospects of getting out at the right time dubious.

The Bitcoin protocol saving 2.5% is actually a very big deal. Doritos removes a few chips and adds air to save 0.1%.

You're right, but btc is open source. Business that move money around will make proprietary. So you're still right, but it's not like 'every business will eventually adopt', in terms of investment calculation.

You can send a billion $$$ to the other side of the world instantly for 9 cents. You don't find that interesting?

I do. How often will people need that? I would guess approximately often enough to make btc worth $1000 right now. So what am I really betting on?

Capital controls can't hold back business anymore. Sanction lines in the sand mean nothing now. The utility value of Bitcoin is here to stay.

I agree 100%, the utility value is not zero. But it must be less than the current price, because of illusory speculation. The intelligence of this market is notably high. It has determined, all things considered, $1,000.

I guess I'd have to know: Can btc literally implement any other possible innovation? Can btc survive central banker's best attempt at competition (plus media frenzy... the msm spam game)?

And the smartest techs and economists in the world think the odds of that make btc worth about 1,000 right now. Unless they plan to get out at the right time. Before I see them do it.

And if people don't see that they are going to miss a huge boat.

BTC just needs to eventually stabilize above $1000 eventually, for the patient.

Could Bitcoin fatally fail 2-3 years from now in the code? Possibly.

Really. Links to people who think it will, please! Other than the Krug. And what's this about blockchain bloat? Transaction times already suck, or is that just my computer?

 

[kpitcher]

To save 2.5% over PayPal? At the risk of having it stolen from me in the process? I'm just saying widespread adoption may be impossible, and current value speculation may be driven by that hope. Who wants this product? Looks to me like it's high level techs who would wait for the next highway exit on 'E' to save .9 cents per gallon. .00083% of the population? Oh, + drug kingpins who aren't too stoned to learn the thing.

The risk of being stolen is slight. Do you have a computer virus on your computer? No? Then you're fine. If you do then any online banking can be risky.

As there are smartphone apps that are really simple to use the widespread adoption is getting there. Coinbase's recent investments will mean their phone app will get even easier to use. But if only 58 million people worldwide use bitcoins it'll be a big success.

Drug kingpins don't need to bother with bitcoins. They can launder trillions through reputable banks like HSBC just fine.

 

[AdamT]

Ok so the IRS gets records that you bought some coin at coinbase through your bank.

This is the one thing I don't like about Coinbase, still got that traceable link to the legacy establishment system. Some clever dev needs to invent a way to get USD onto a site via a quick means, then transfer through multiple wallets and finally to your wallet or destination of choice.

I mean, Coinbase can be forced at any time to cough up all records of their users and transactions. I can see the IRS salivating over this, sifting through the data and targeting people. Demanding records of all their btc movements, losses/gains etc.

 

[amonasro]

This is the one thing I don't like about Coinbase, still got that traceable link to the legacy establishment system. Some clever dev needs to invent a way to get USD onto a site via a quick means, then transfer through multiple wallets and finally to your wallet or destination of choice.

I mean, Coinbase can be forced at any time to cough up all records of their users and transactions. I can see the IRS salivating over this, sifting through the data and targeting people. Demanding records of all their btc movements, losses/gains etc.

I don't think Coinbase shares anything with the IRS at this time about individuals' accounts. That could change, for sure. I'm more worried about my bank connected to Coinbase, as they're required to report transactions over $10,000 to the IRS.

If one wants to stay as anonymous as possible, send your coins through a mixer. That creates solid plausible deniability should they attempt to trace coins back to you. That is, until they develop a blockchain tracking program, which they are probably years away from doing. Even then, the nerds will be waaaay ahead of them.

 

[AdamT]

I don't think Coinbase shares anything with the IRS at this time about individuals' accounts. That could change, for sure. I'm more worried about my bank connected to Coinbase, as they're required to report transactions over $10,000 to the IRS.

If one wants to stay as anonymous as possible, send your coins through a mixer. That creates solid plausible deniability should they attempt to trace coins back to you. That is, until they develop a blockchain tracking program, which they are probably years away from doing. Even then, the nerds will be waaaay ahead of them.

Thing is, if CB was under orders from IRS, no one might even know due to bs patriot act "terrorism" laws and the usual m.o.

Aren't mixers notoriously shady? As in, may steal your coins?

 

[amonasro]

Aren't mixers notoriously shady? As in, may steal your coins?

I've actually never used one. But I know the blockchain wallet has one built in for a small fee. I'm certain you could trust it.