newbitech
Member
- Joined
- Nov 30, 2007
- Messages
- 8,847
Right, I was just saying his book is good too.Worth a read for sure. Coming from zero trading experience it helped a lot more than sifting through trading sites.
My method is my own--I read books backwards too, start from the middle/end and work my way to the beginning. Magazines too, also forum threads. This probably comes from learning so much music in a short period of time in college, often you have to start with the trickiest parts which usually aren't in the beginning of the piece. So I take the creative approach
Well we certainly agree here. Everyone wonders how many speculative bubbles we'll get. That's the big question that nobody knows the answer to.
So basically you're saying the price will go down. I disagree, and you're complicating the situation. For one, technical analysis includes fundamental analysis by default (Murphy goes into detail on this topic in his book) so separating the two seems illogical. Bitcoin is years away from being a "stable currency" by today's standards and may never even reach that point--it will exist as a hybrid stock/currency/trading tool. It will continue to be volatile until the market cap is large enough, and in the meantime the market will have to absorb the price swings--Bitpay/Coinbase are already beginning to explore this new market. It's also not in the best interest of exchanges to allow things like 50:1 leverage in a market of this size, so it probably won't happen.
Yeah, I think the price will go down for many simple reasons. One reason, its been overbought for going on years now. I didn't separate technical from fundamental analysis. There aren't any P/E ratios with this trade, no physical links other than the massive amounts of energy consumption needed to maintain the calculators and of course the tech behind those calculators. If we view bitcoin as a commodity like gold, the best we can say about scarcity is that it is artificially maintained. The technology behind it is not well understood. There are known scaling issues. No one know what will happen once the adoption curve starts to match the speculative interest curve (which is waning btw).
So i'd be happy to include more fundamentals in my technical analysis. Which ones?
I do go in to some details in regards to the relationship between the underlying fundamental of consumer adoption and liquidity of the trade. In that detail, I make it pretty clear that I believe the fundamental contradiction will be technically corrected.
On a much larger scale, we see very similar fundamental contradictions in the manipulated markets like the NASQAQ, S&P, and DJIA during technical crashes. For instance, the most recent correction. Fundamentals for housing were horrible, those paying attention knew that the prices could not rise forever. The only thing that supported the higher prices was, the higher prices. Housing technically corrected the horrible fundamentals in spite of the price indicator. Sadly, the technical correction was cut off thanks to market manipulation, but it's still painfully obvious that the housing market and the broader markets fundamentals are horrible, and technically should correct.
Bitcoin markets are by and large free from wide scale manipulation. So in the absence of very strong fundamentals, which bitcoin does not have, there is nothing to prevent the even stronger technicals from bringing the fundamentals more in line with the reality that is occurring in the market place.
The fundamental fact is consumer adoption seems to be slow. The price of the trade in terms of artificial scarcity has far outpaced the underlying fundamental. A thing can be extremely scarce, for instance, my finger nail clippings. But if there is no demand for it, I can't really expect to sell it for $1,000's per piece.
