The Litepresence Report on Cryptocurrency

[fatjohn]

Wow volume spike on BTC-e at the moment 700 bitcoins a minute price down hard to 367

Edit:350 ish price at bitstamp stays at 470

 

[squarepusher]

toodamoon?

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2dvlq3/lets_have_a_serious_discussion_as_to_wtf_is/

 

[presence]

"New Gold"

http://oi61.tinypic.com/vy83u9.jpg

 

[muh_roads]

Bought some more. Those guys that caught the noob dump on btc-e are lucky.

 

[zeMan]

Bought some more. Those guys that caught the noob dump on btc-e are lucky.

I'll bet that was an automatic dump of leveraged positions from people using metatrader on BTC-e.

Man, I wish I'd caught that lol.

Anyone buying LTC now?

 

[Dianne]

I'll bet that was an automatic dump of leveraged positions from people using metatrader on BTC-e.

Man, I wish I'd caught that lol.

Anyone buying LTC now?

I would also be interested in LTC opinions. This seems like a perfect time to buy.

 

[PaulConventionWV]

toodamoon?

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2dvlq3/lets_have_a_serious_discussion_as_to_wtf_is/

Gotta love redditors spreading FUD.

While I'm pretty neutral as to which direction this is going long-term, I'm not someone who panics over a short-term price movement. This could still very well be like 2012, just a long, drawn-out cycle to shake up all of the believers in a strict bubble schedule. Surprise, the market doesn't work like that. Bubbles happened like that because people weren't expecting it, but now they are and that could be the very reason it's not happening yet.

 

[PaulConventionWV]

I would also be interested in LTC opinions. This seems like a perfect time to buy.

I'm not sure. It could crash all the way to a dollar. There's no support between here and there, and let's not forget that LTC is NOT bitcoin. Just be careful is all I'm saying.

 

[muh_roads]

Litecoin could get replaced by Darkcoin in the upcoming generation. Sentiment on LTC is shit right now. I thought $2 would be the bottom. I'm wondering if it could go below $1 now too...

Volatility is back. People should be cheering it. Scoop low.

 

[PaulConventionWV]

Litecoin could get replaced by Darkcoin in the upcoming generation. Sentiment on LTC is shit right now. I thought $2 would be the bottom. I'm wondering if it could go below $1 now too...

Volatility is back. People should be cheering it. Scoop low.

This is definitely better than that flat period. I'm finally making some money, mostly on shorts because that's the obvious direction of this market for the time being.

 

[Dianne]

Litecoin could get replaced by Darkcoin in the upcoming generation. Sentiment on LTC is shit right now. I thought $2 would be the bottom. I'm wondering if it could go below $1 now too...

Volatility is back. People should be cheering it. Scoop low.

I actually agree... I lost a lot of money on LTC .. and I watched NMC and PPC die slow deaths .. And now LTC following the same pattern. I've been burned too many times on alt coins ... although tempted... think I'm staying clear of anything not named btc.

 

[presence]

100,000 Thread Views

 

[Barrex]

I INVESTED PENNIES. WHERE ARE MY MILLIONS?

 

[kpitcher]

I would also be interested in LTC opinions. This seems like a perfect time to buy.

LTC stood out for quite awhile as being a stable alt currency. Recent news puts almost all holdings of LTC on BTC-e so people are just trading back and forth with it. I also haven't seen any real development news with LTC. Some of the other currencies are at least showing up on more ATMs and usable on a growing number of websites. I fail to see why LTC would rise anymore as there isn't much to differentiate it.

 

[Dianne]

LTC stood out for quite awhile as being a stable alt currency. Recent news puts almost all holdings of LTC on BTC-e so people are just trading back and forth with it. I also haven't seen any real development news with LTC. Some of the other currencies are at least showing up on more ATMs and usable on a growing number of websites. I fail to see why LTC would rise anymore as there isn't much to differentiate it.

Oh, I didn't know that. What other coins are showing up on ATMs and/or websites? I bought into the BTC is gold and LTC is silver, unfortunately.

 

[amonasro]

I see,

well the link I posted is,

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku....s:john_murphy_s_ten_laws_of_technical_trading

Right, I was just saying his book is good too. Worth a read for sure. Coming from zero trading experience it helped a lot more than sifting through trading sites.

You mentioned "When I analyze a chart I look close at 15m then "zoom out" until I look at the daily and weekly. It helps me put together a better picture."

that contradicts the first law of analysis from John Murphy,

Map the Trends

...Begin a chart analysis with monthly and weekly charts spanning several years...

I mean ultimately the goal is to make profitable trades, so however you come to that conclusion is not really the important thing. Thank you for explaining a bit more about your view on analysis tho. I don't want to come across as argumentative, just want to share my perspective.

My method is my own--I read books backwards too, start from the middle/end and work my way to the beginning. Magazines too, also forum threads. This probably comes from learning so much music in a short period of time in college, often you have to start with the trickiest parts which usually aren't in the beginning of the piece. So I take the creative approach

Speaking of fundamentals, I think perhaps the only fundamental that would maybe support the massive bubble and parabolic up move was the idea of artificial scarcity being sustainable. Even then, it was more of a projected fundamental and one that I still think is not well understood. So I would agree that it's not going to be a fundamental driver that supplies the selling pressure but rather technical drivers, such as low volume buying vs high volume selling.

Well we certainly agree here. Everyone wonders how many speculative bubbles we'll get. That's the big question that nobody knows the answer to.

Speculative interests are now being financed by larger money pools as well, so if margin trading is expected to mature, we could reasonably expect volatility to decline with increased liquidity. This I believe with further suppress speculative exuberant tendencies to send the price on wild upswings and devastating collapses that have become a calling card for this trade. There has been quite a bit of technical resistance to the type of correction that I believe this trade will need in order to find stability and finally focus on fundamentals of the underlying asset.

I believe we can read into the long term chart the erosion of those technical resistances since the ATH and that erosion has been gaining momentum.

As far as the demand curve and utilization vs price, I see an underlying fundamental contradiction here that will ultimately need to be balanced out in a technical correction.

On the one hand there is an inverse relationship between volatility and consumer adoption. On the other hand, the volatility fuels the speculative interest that have inflated the trade value.

This is a direct impact on the liquidity of the trade. Obviously, as more adoption occurs the more stable the price will become and the less volatile the trade. Conversely, with a reduction in volatility comes a reduction in speculative interest and a less fluid trade with the mitigating factor being the ability to short trade and trade on margin. This opens up the price to be hammered on a fundamental level as small negative news that send the trade lower triggers shorts to pile up and puts to execute.

The price has been able to hold up against negative fundamentals due to speculative interest and relative higher levels of liquidity that exist in a volatile market.

The technical correction I believe will strike the balance between widespread consumer adoption and liquidity. I believe bitcoin volatility must stabilize at a price level that is less speculative than what we see today in order for widespread adoption to occur. I believe that speculative interests must be converted to investment interest and long term profit expectations must be more closely tied to the actual performance of the underlying asset in the market place, rather than the expectation that the trade with continue to make moon shot after moon shot with no regards to the fundamentals outside of artificial scarcity.

Technically, the trade has been overbought on the longest time scale since large capital started pouring in to it. That needs to and I believe will correct.

So basically you're saying the price will go down. I disagree, and you're complicating the situation. For one, technical analysis includes fundamental analysis by default (Murphy goes into detail on this topic in his book) so separating the two seems illogical. Bitcoin is years away from being a "stable currency" by today's standards and may never even reach that point--it will exist as a hybrid stock/currency/trading tool. It will continue to be volatile until the market cap is large enough, and in the meantime the market will have to absorb the price swings--Bitpay/Coinbase are already beginning to explore this new market. It's also not in the best interest of exchanges to allow things like 50:1 leverage in a market of this size, so it probably won't happen.

 

[muh_roads]

I would also be interested in LTC opinions. This seems like a perfect time to buy.

I thought I made an LTC sell call here. Sorry to hear you lost a lot Dianne. Did you scoop any on that bounce? I've been flipping LTC & PPC but I never hold them for long. NMC I tend to accumulate and hold a little more, sometimes.

If it makes you feel better, I lost a lot on Doge. I think SomewhereInOz came from wolong's pump group the more I think about it. Taking advantage of stupid traders here such as myself as they were trying to exit at the top of the Olympics Bobsled bubble. I'm a lot more confident trading shitcoins than I used to be. But you gotta flip them fast.

 

[amonasro]

LTC stood out for quite awhile as being a stable alt currency. Recent news puts almost all holdings of LTC on BTC-e so people are just trading back and forth with it. I also haven't seen any real development news with LTC. Some of the other currencies are at least showing up on more ATMs and usable on a growing number of websites. I fail to see why LTC would rise anymore as there isn't much to differentiate it.

I'm fairly sure there are no ATMs besides Bitcoin. LTC is also the only coin which can boast significant merchant adoption and a gift card service. Merchant adoption is what pushed Bitcoin from obscurity and LTC is following the same path. Chinese trade insane amounts of it on all their major exchanges, much higher volume than here, so it's incorrect to say all holdings are on btc-e. And China usually leads the market in major price moves in both BTC/LTC.

Bottom line, until it decouples from the price of BTC (which is hasn't) I'm not too worried about it.

I keep hearing how another altcoin will overtake Bitcoin. I feel like some of the altcoins are trying too hard. They are going after a market that is way too small and way too crowded. Combined with the scammy pump/dump nature of most of them, newcomers will not be eager to buy them up.

 

[fatjohn]

Quiz question: which one of the following is the current bear market?

 

[RonPaulIsGreat]

The newer chart is the current one.