The case for the occurence of algorithmic vote flipping
- Thread starter drummergirl
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I missed a couple of states. Here for your amazement:
Demographics anyone?
Illinois is shocking.
RonRules
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I sense vote shenanigans here:
Charlie Rangel’s victory questioned with uncounted votes looming
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/...tioned-uncounted-votes-looming-163023599.html
On Tuesday night, state Sen. Adriano Espaillat conceded to Rep. Charlie Rangel in New York's 13th District with the longtime incumbent enjoying a wide lead. But Rangel's front-runner status doesn't look so convincing anymore. Not only has his lead narrowed, but many votes are still outstanding, offering Rangel's opponents a reason to question his Democratic primary victory.
When the Associated Press called the race for Rangel—and Espaillat conceded—the 82-year-old congressman was ahead by double-digits. With 70 percent of precincts reporting, Rangel had 50 percent of the vote to Espaillat's 33 percent in the Harlem-area district on Tuesday night.
But later this week, with 94 percent of precincts reporting, Rangel was ahead by only 44 percent to Espaillat's 41 percent—or 16,916 votes to 15,884, a margin of just 1,032 votes, according to the Associated Press. Those totals were the latest available as of Friday.
Espaillat's campaign confirmed to Yahoo News Friday morning that it has not yet publicly commented on the vote narrowing.* But Espaillat's backers have been vocal about their concern for the winnowing margin.
"I'm here because most of those votes are from my district, and they are Adriano Espaillat's votes," City Councilman Ydanis Rodriguez told a crowd at a rally in front of Rangel's office Thursday afternoon, referring to affidavit votes remaining to be counted, according to the New York Daily News. "We respect the Board of Elections and we are not jumping to any conclusions. We are just here because we care about the democratic process. We have the best candidate in Adriano Espaillat, and he will be our candidate at the end of this process."
Still, Rangel's camp remains confident in their win. "We are going through the process like we do after every election in order to ensure each vote is counted," Rangel spokeswoman Ronnie Sykes said in a statement issued this week. "We are confident that at the conclusion of this process we will be victorious."
Officials will release complete totals including affidavits, absentees and military ballots July 5, according to the city Board of Elections. News reports suggest some 3,000 votes remain.
The board currently reminds visitors on its website that preliminary vote results are just that, and that no results are certified until a complete recanvass has occurred and the additional paper ballots are tallied.
*Update 4:55 p.m. ET: Espaillat's campaign expressed dissatisfaction with the vote count process in a release Friday afternoon and offered support for a new decision by the state Supreme Court to hold a hearing to examine the count.
Espaillat went from 33% to 41% as the vote tally went from 50% to 94%. I find that very hard to believe. The problem is NY data is hard to come by. If you can help fine precinct-level data for that race, please reply. I want to chart that.
Charlie Rangel’s victory questioned with uncounted votes looming
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/...tioned-uncounted-votes-looming-163023599.html
On Tuesday night, state Sen. Adriano Espaillat conceded to Rep. Charlie Rangel in New York's 13th District with the longtime incumbent enjoying a wide lead. But Rangel's front-runner status doesn't look so convincing anymore. Not only has his lead narrowed, but many votes are still outstanding, offering Rangel's opponents a reason to question his Democratic primary victory.
When the Associated Press called the race for Rangel—and Espaillat conceded—the 82-year-old congressman was ahead by double-digits. With 70 percent of precincts reporting, Rangel had 50 percent of the vote to Espaillat's 33 percent in the Harlem-area district on Tuesday night.
But later this week, with 94 percent of precincts reporting, Rangel was ahead by only 44 percent to Espaillat's 41 percent—or 16,916 votes to 15,884, a margin of just 1,032 votes, according to the Associated Press. Those totals were the latest available as of Friday.
Espaillat's campaign confirmed to Yahoo News Friday morning that it has not yet publicly commented on the vote narrowing.* But Espaillat's backers have been vocal about their concern for the winnowing margin.
"I'm here because most of those votes are from my district, and they are Adriano Espaillat's votes," City Councilman Ydanis Rodriguez told a crowd at a rally in front of Rangel's office Thursday afternoon, referring to affidavit votes remaining to be counted, according to the New York Daily News. "We respect the Board of Elections and we are not jumping to any conclusions. We are just here because we care about the democratic process. We have the best candidate in Adriano Espaillat, and he will be our candidate at the end of this process."
Still, Rangel's camp remains confident in their win. "We are going through the process like we do after every election in order to ensure each vote is counted," Rangel spokeswoman Ronnie Sykes said in a statement issued this week. "We are confident that at the conclusion of this process we will be victorious."
Officials will release complete totals including affidavits, absentees and military ballots July 5, according to the city Board of Elections. News reports suggest some 3,000 votes remain.
The board currently reminds visitors on its website that preliminary vote results are just that, and that no results are certified until a complete recanvass has occurred and the additional paper ballots are tallied.
*Update 4:55 p.m. ET: Espaillat's campaign expressed dissatisfaction with the vote count process in a release Friday afternoon and offered support for a new decision by the state Supreme Court to hold a hearing to examine the count.
Espaillat went from 33% to 41% as the vote tally went from 50% to 94%. I find that very hard to believe. The problem is NY data is hard to come by. If you can help fine precinct-level data for that race, please reply. I want to chart that.
drummergirl
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It's worse than that. Espaillat made those gains from 70% of precincts counted to 94%. That's an increase of 8% of the overall total in only 24% of the vote. Definitely unusual
Although that could be stuffing and not flipping.
RonRules
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Update:
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.co...ues-arise-after-rangels-apparent-primary-win/
New York City Board of Elections show Rangel ahead of his main challenger, state Sen. Adriano Espaillat, by only two percentage points - 44% to 42% - with just 802 votes separating them and more than 3,000 votes unaccounted for.
I really want to get my hands on the low-level data here. There's serious shenanigans going on here.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.co...ues-arise-after-rangels-apparent-primary-win/
New York City Board of Elections show Rangel ahead of his main challenger, state Sen. Adriano Espaillat, by only two percentage points - 44% to 42% - with just 802 votes separating them and more than 3,000 votes unaccounted for.
I really want to get my hands on the low-level data here. There's serious shenanigans going on here.
Have you tried contacting the candidates involved? This might be a great chance to catch things as they are happening. The article seemed to imply that they were suspicious of the results so far already.
RonRules
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Ireland sells its e-voting machines for scrap
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/54m-voting-machines-scrapped-for-9-each-3153437.html
THE Government has sold the infamous €54m e-voting machines for scrap -- for €9.30 each.
A huge fleet of trucks will begin removing the 7,500 machines from 14 locations on Monday.
They will be taken to a Co Offaly recycling company, KMK Metals Recycling Ltd in Tullamore, where they will be stripped down and shredded.
Ironically, the owner of the firm, Kurt Kyck, cast his vote on one of the machines in the 2002 elections. He has now paid €70,000 for the lot.
Scrapping the machines brings to an end the embarrassing e-voting debacle which has cost the taxpayer more than €54m since it emerged the expensive equipment was faulty.
They could not be guaranteed to be safe from tampering. And they could not produce a printout so that votes/results could be double-checked.
But last night the man who first proposed using them washed his hands of the affair.
Former Fianna Fail minister Noel Dempsey suggested e-voting in 1999 but the machines were purchased by Martin Cullen three years later.
Mr Dempsey refused to comment, directing questions to his successor in the Department of the Environment.
"I'm a private citizen," he told the Irish Independent at his home in Trim, Co Meath.
"Ask Martin Cullen, he bought them," he added. And then he walked into his house.
Mr Cullen could not be reached for comment.
The machines had also been strongly supported by former Taoiseach Bertie Ahern, who said Ireland would become a "laughing stock" unless we stopped using pencil and paper to record our votes. Mr Ahern also refused to comment when contacted by this newspaper.
Bought in 2002, the machines were supposed to be used in local, general and European elections, and in referendums. But an independent commission found two years later that the lack of a paper trail and security issues meant they could not be used. They have languished in storage ever since, costing up to €700,000 a year, before a decision was taken in 2007 to move 60pc to a secure storage site at Gormanston in Co Meath to save money. Annual storage costs have run to €140,000 a year since, but all payments will cease at the end of this year.
The total cost of the machines was €51m. Storage added another €3.2m to the bill.
In April 2009, a decision was taken to scrap the system because it would cost too much to upgrade them.
Last January, companies were invited to bid to purchase the machines with KMK Metals Recycling Ltd in Tullamore awarded the contract just 10 days ago. The company will pay the State €70,267 for the 7,500 machines and associated equipment -- 0.13pc of the amount they have cost the State.
Yesterday Environment Minister Phil Hogan said he was happy to bring the "ill-conceived" plan to an end.
"I am glad to bring this sorry episode to a conclusion on behalf of the taxpayer," he said. "From the outset, this project was ill-conceived and poorly planned by my predecessors and as a result it has cost the taxpayer some €55m.
Scandalous
"While this is a scandalous waste of public money, I am happy to say that we will not incur any further costs in the disposal of the machines. KMK Metals Recycling Ltd will pay €70,267 for all of the equipment.
"Removal from from the present storage locations and transportation to the recovery facility will commence in the coming week and will be completed by September. The storage costs of the machines were €140,000 per year for the past three years, and from next year we will not incur those costs any longer."
A massive operation to transport them to the company's plant in Offaly begins on Monday, and it has 70 days to remove all the equipment from 14 locations across the State.
Four will be kept by the Department of the Environment and stored in the Custom House.
The equipment is stored in Louth, Sligo, Mayo, Clare, Donegal, Monaghan, Roscommon, Leitrim, Wexford, Laois, Offaly, Longford and Kerry, with the bulk of the machines (60pc) at Gormanston in Co Meath. The first wave of machines will be taken from a storage depot in Wexford to Offaly, where they will be dismantled.
A condition of the contract is that two electronic chips in each machine, which hold information on how the equipment works, are destroyed.
- Paul Melia and Luke Byrne
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/54m-voting-machines-scrapped-for-9-each-3153437.html
THE Government has sold the infamous €54m e-voting machines for scrap -- for €9.30 each.
A huge fleet of trucks will begin removing the 7,500 machines from 14 locations on Monday.
They will be taken to a Co Offaly recycling company, KMK Metals Recycling Ltd in Tullamore, where they will be stripped down and shredded.
Ironically, the owner of the firm, Kurt Kyck, cast his vote on one of the machines in the 2002 elections. He has now paid €70,000 for the lot.
Scrapping the machines brings to an end the embarrassing e-voting debacle which has cost the taxpayer more than €54m since it emerged the expensive equipment was faulty.
They could not be guaranteed to be safe from tampering. And they could not produce a printout so that votes/results could be double-checked.
But last night the man who first proposed using them washed his hands of the affair.
Former Fianna Fail minister Noel Dempsey suggested e-voting in 1999 but the machines were purchased by Martin Cullen three years later.
Mr Dempsey refused to comment, directing questions to his successor in the Department of the Environment.
"I'm a private citizen," he told the Irish Independent at his home in Trim, Co Meath.
"Ask Martin Cullen, he bought them," he added. And then he walked into his house.
Mr Cullen could not be reached for comment.
The machines had also been strongly supported by former Taoiseach Bertie Ahern, who said Ireland would become a "laughing stock" unless we stopped using pencil and paper to record our votes. Mr Ahern also refused to comment when contacted by this newspaper.
Bought in 2002, the machines were supposed to be used in local, general and European elections, and in referendums. But an independent commission found two years later that the lack of a paper trail and security issues meant they could not be used. They have languished in storage ever since, costing up to €700,000 a year, before a decision was taken in 2007 to move 60pc to a secure storage site at Gormanston in Co Meath to save money. Annual storage costs have run to €140,000 a year since, but all payments will cease at the end of this year.
The total cost of the machines was €51m. Storage added another €3.2m to the bill.
In April 2009, a decision was taken to scrap the system because it would cost too much to upgrade them.
Last January, companies were invited to bid to purchase the machines with KMK Metals Recycling Ltd in Tullamore awarded the contract just 10 days ago. The company will pay the State €70,267 for the 7,500 machines and associated equipment -- 0.13pc of the amount they have cost the State.
Yesterday Environment Minister Phil Hogan said he was happy to bring the "ill-conceived" plan to an end.
"I am glad to bring this sorry episode to a conclusion on behalf of the taxpayer," he said. "From the outset, this project was ill-conceived and poorly planned by my predecessors and as a result it has cost the taxpayer some €55m.
Scandalous
"While this is a scandalous waste of public money, I am happy to say that we will not incur any further costs in the disposal of the machines. KMK Metals Recycling Ltd will pay €70,267 for all of the equipment.
"Removal from from the present storage locations and transportation to the recovery facility will commence in the coming week and will be completed by September. The storage costs of the machines were €140,000 per year for the past three years, and from next year we will not incur those costs any longer."
A massive operation to transport them to the company's plant in Offaly begins on Monday, and it has 70 days to remove all the equipment from 14 locations across the State.
Four will be kept by the Department of the Environment and stored in the Custom House.
The equipment is stored in Louth, Sligo, Mayo, Clare, Donegal, Monaghan, Roscommon, Leitrim, Wexford, Laois, Offaly, Longford and Kerry, with the bulk of the machines (60pc) at Gormanston in Co Meath. The first wave of machines will be taken from a storage depot in Wexford to Offaly, where they will be dismantled.
A condition of the contract is that two electronic chips in each machine, which hold information on how the equipment works, are destroyed.
- Paul Melia and Luke Byrne
kathy88
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Finally, Hawaii:
This is not ending well!
Holy shit he got everyone's votes.
RonRules
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I've got some people in HI really concerned about this. Told them they should go to the authorities.
RonRules
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The range of results in HI are simply amazing. In some cases RP wins over Romney by more than 2:1. In other places, Romney wins over RP by 23:1.
Location Ron Mitt
Hawaii Pahoa Community Center 117 52
Honolulu Laie Elem Sch Cafeteria 44 1027
Here's the chart of the 7 locations where Ron Paul poll watchers were present:
Location Ron Mitt
Hawaii Pahoa Community Center 117 52
Honolulu Laie Elem Sch Cafeteria 44 1027
Here's the chart of the 7 locations where Ron Paul poll watchers were present:
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asurfaholic
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`if that's not proof, then I don't know what is.
RonRules
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This particular location has an explanation. There's a Mormon temple in that precinct:
http://mypolitikal.com/2012/03/17/the-secret-behind-mitt-romneys-hawaii-landslide/
RonRules
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60 Minutes today has an update on the Stuxnet virus.
Stuxnet copycats: Let the hacking begin
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-504803_...he-hacking-begin/?tag=cbsnewsMainColumnArea.1
Last March on 60 Minutes, Steve Kroft unraveled the mysterious Stuxnet computer virus, which he calls "the most sophisticated cyber weapon ever invented."
About two years ago, the all-important centrifuges at Iran's nuclear fuel enrichment facility at Natanz began failing at a suspicious rate. Computer security experts now agree that the sophisticated computer worm dubbed Stuxnet was behind it.
Although the identities of Stuxnet's designers have been the subject of endless speculation and anonymous leaks to reporters, the code itself is no secret. Hackers -- and our own producer Graham Messick -- found it simply by looking on the Internet.
Could international hackers exploit the Stuxnet code and design similar viruses that target critical infrastructure in the United States?
"At its core, Stuxnet was an elegant and novel weapon, one that could be reverse-engineered and repurposed," says Messick. 60 Minutes Overtime explores the possibility of Stuxnet-style catastrophe on American soil.
Not a word about voting machines, but a lady at a conference showed how they hacked a prison Programmable Logic Controller to simultaneously open up all cell doors at a prison facility.
That's pretty bad, but I personally think hacking the vote has more nefarious and farther reaching consequences.
Stuxnet copycats: Let the hacking begin
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-504803_...he-hacking-begin/?tag=cbsnewsMainColumnArea.1
Last March on 60 Minutes, Steve Kroft unraveled the mysterious Stuxnet computer virus, which he calls "the most sophisticated cyber weapon ever invented."
About two years ago, the all-important centrifuges at Iran's nuclear fuel enrichment facility at Natanz began failing at a suspicious rate. Computer security experts now agree that the sophisticated computer worm dubbed Stuxnet was behind it.
Although the identities of Stuxnet's designers have been the subject of endless speculation and anonymous leaks to reporters, the code itself is no secret. Hackers -- and our own producer Graham Messick -- found it simply by looking on the Internet.
Could international hackers exploit the Stuxnet code and design similar viruses that target critical infrastructure in the United States?
"At its core, Stuxnet was an elegant and novel weapon, one that could be reverse-engineered and repurposed," says Messick. 60 Minutes Overtime explores the possibility of Stuxnet-style catastrophe on American soil.
Not a word about voting machines, but a lady at a conference showed how they hacked a prison Programmable Logic Controller to simultaneously open up all cell doors at a prison facility.
That's pretty bad, but I personally think hacking the vote has more nefarious and farther reaching consequences.
Your last post is interesting. I wonder what you would see if you cross-referenced wherever a Mormon church or temple is to your results so far in random selections, particularly at the precinct level. Hate to say it again but there's 5 million Mormons in this country and they do vote in mass. That could explain some things? Just a thought...I appreciate your work but the Mormon factor is a big one and I havent seen it addressed in any of these flipping threads.
RonRules
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I tried to look at that when I analyzed VA in detail. I didn't get the exact data I needed but "other denominations" were not correlated to precinct size. (I was looking for Mormon % per precinct size)
Remember that these slopes are almost always very straight, with over 500-10000 precincts per state. I find it extremely hard to believe that Mormon temples are arranged in such a way to generate a linear increase in cumulative votes.
This is the Mormon map of the US. Have at it if you think you can make straight lines with that data.
BTW, while you look at this map, remember that Utah flat-lined!
On the other hand, I am hopeful for the future when I see
things like what happened yesterday:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/01/us-usa-utah-mormons-idUSBRE86000N20120701
Mormons quit church in mass resignation ceremony
(Reuters) - A group of about 150 Mormons quit their church in a mass resignation ceremony in Salt Lake City on Saturday in a rare display of defiance ending decades of disagreement for some over issues ranging from polygamy to gay marriage.
Participants from Utah, Arizona, Idaho and elsewhere gathered in a public park to sign a "Declaration of Independence from Mormonism."
"This feels awesome," said Alison Lucas, from West Jordan, Utah, who took part in the rally amid soaring temperatures. "I don't know if I would have had the courage except in a group."
The Utah-based Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints is known for its culture of obedience, and the mass ceremony was a seldom-seen act of collective revolt.
...
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RonRules
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This thread is actually the shorter, more condensed, easier to read thread. Except with dolphins. Don't be confused by the dolphins.
Anyway, the simplest explanation is that there is a "Romney Effect" in the 2012 Presidential Primaries. (This effect was later found to also be in 2008 and sparsely in prior years)
The Romney Effect is that Mitt Romney gains a higher percentage of vote as a linear function of cumulative precinct size. In other words, the larger the precincts, Mitt get a larger share of the vote. That's works out real good for him in the end percentage as a detriment to other candidates.
This effect happens to chart out a nearly perfect straight line as you accumulate (sum up) the precinct count. We chart the running total of the votes.
Here's my favorite example form Iowa:
If you chart each candidate % results as a function of precinct size, your get this undecipherable mess:
But if you simply keep a running total of the votes in each precinct and you chart that, it's like you have found the key to unlock the secret of the algorithm:
Both charts show the exact same data. It's pretty amazing and dead serious. It's happening in all states except Alaska, Utah and Puerto Rico. It does not happen in European elections. Egypt and Russia have other weirdness, probably caused by ballot stuffing.
99% of the Democrat charts I plotted are flat lined. Charts of demographics flat line, which is a strong argument that demographics are not at cause.
Also an important clue: Counties that don't use a central tabulator flat line:
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RonRules
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I had missed this short documentary on the subject of Internet voting:
Internet Voting: Will Democracy or Hackers Win?
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/politics/jan-june12/internetvoting_02-16.html
Look at 6:25, Paul Stenbjorn (ex DC Election official who was forced to cancel the DC online voting scheme) is now working for Syctl. (talk about a revolving door!)
He states in hubris, "we are not embarrassed", after being subjected to one of the most embarrassing hack ever. "Obviously the software could have been written better"
Please oppose internet voting anytime this pops up.
Internet Voting: Will Democracy or Hackers Win?
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/politics/jan-june12/internetvoting_02-16.html
Look at 6:25, Paul Stenbjorn (ex DC Election official who was forced to cancel the DC online voting scheme) is now working for Syctl. (talk about a revolving door!)
He states in hubris, "we are not embarrassed", after being subjected to one of the most embarrassing hack ever. "Obviously the software could have been written better"
Please oppose internet voting anytime this pops up.
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drummergirl
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