The case for the occurence of algorithmic vote flipping

[Liberty1789]

As per RonRules' request

 

[RonRules]

As per RonRules' request

Thank you so much Liberty, just in time for UCR!

 

[RonRules]

This will not work.

I want to see, even with your explanation, if we chart the delegate results randomly on the X-Axis compared to charting based on Cumulative Precinct size if anything will show up.

My guess is that the candidate will be flipping, but not the delegates. That's why I really need to know for which candidate all the PA delegates are pledged to.

Please help with on that for Alegheny County, where I've got good data.

Thanks.

 

[Aden]

If the blue line was actually Ron Paul votes, then it all makes sense.

How? The red line is the same in absentee and primary. If red lines are supposed to be Santorum, and your theory is correct, the red line should have a higher percentage in absentee than primary.

I agree with you on everything else. Just not the Santorum in PA thing. The guy was was senator in the state.

 

[Liberty1789]

That's why I really need to know for which candidate all the PA delegates are pledged to.

Technicallly, the PA delegates are unpledged and unbound. Some have declared their allegiance, some are unclear/unknown/unmasked, etc...

The best mapping I could find, on a pro-Gingrich website, is below:

********************************************************************
FULL LIST OF PENNSYLVANIA CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT DELEGATE CANDIDATES
********************************************************************
CD 1 (Vote for 3)
Taxin, Marion (2008 alternate) [ROMNEY] {endorsed by county GOP in Delaware/Philly}
Vogler, Christopher [ROMNEY] {endorsed by county GOP in Delaware/Philly}
Boggia, Tom [PAUL]
Untermeyer, Michael
Anton, Frederick (2008 delegate) [ROMNEY]
Kerns Jr., Dale [PAUL]
********************************************************************
CD 2 (Vote for 3)
Tucker, Calvin
Harris, Lewis [ROMNEY] {endorsed by county GOP in Philly/Montco}
Vogler, Walter [ROMNEY]
Lang, Adam [ROMNEY] {endorsed by county GOP in Philly/Montco}
Gureghian, Vahan [ROMNEY] {endorsed by county GOP in Philly/Montco}
ALTERNATE Koren, Seth [PAUL]
********************************************************************
CD 3 (Vote for 3)
Sergi, Michael [PAUL]
Lange, Carl [GINGRICH]
English, Philip [ROMNEY]
Lindsey, Travis [PAUL]
Mustello, Michele (2004 alternate)
Pepper, Jean (2000 alternate)
Metcalfe, Daryl (State Rep.)
Salorino, Joe [PAUL]
Adametz, Paul
********************************************************************
CD 4 (Vote for 4)
Wingert, Lisa [ROMNEY]
Gerow, Charlie [GINGRICH]
Hoffman, Eric [GINGRICH]
Gillispie, Marilyn (2008 delegate) [SANTORUM]
Roberts, Elizabeth [PAUL]
Zentmeyer, Deborah [ROMNEY]
Bair, Barbara [NO RESPONSE]
Talley, Dave [PAUL]
Wingert, Kenneth (2004 delegate) [ROMNEY]
Parsley, Thomas Byran [PAUL]
Keys, Deborah [ROMNEY]
Brown, Emily [GINGRICH]
Matthias, G [SANTORUM]
Hoang, David [UNDECIDED, BUT SAYS HE LIKES ASIANS LOL]
Habacivch, William [UNDECIDED, DISLIKES ROMNEY AND PAUL]
Stewart, Dick (2008 delegate) [UNCOMMITTED, LONGTIME RNC MEMBER]
Doller, Suzanne C. (2008 alternate) [PAUL]
Grippi, Antonio [NO RESPONSE, BUT RUMORED TO BE FOR PAUL]
ALTERNATE Cotton, Derek [PAUL]
ALTERNATE Garry, Dave [PAUL]
ALTERNATE Nagle, Chad [PAUL]
ALTERNATE Shoemaker, Seth M. [PAUL]
********************************************************************
CD 5 (Vote for 3)
Styn, Mary
Martin, Thomas [PAUL]
Haas, Joyce (possible establishment ties?) [SANTORUM?]
Corman, III, Jacob [SANTORUM]
Brown, Thomas G. [PAUL]
Mitchell, Lee A. [PAUL]
ALTERNATE Brady, Mark R. [PAUL]
********************************************************************
CD 6 (Vote for 3)
Spadt, Jonathan [ROMNEY OR POSSIBLY SANTORUM OR DISTRICT WINNER]
Schroder, Curt (State Rep.) [GINGRICH]
Costello, Ryan [ROMNEY]
Duffy, Philip G. [PAUL]
Bender, Edmund (Berks County Patriots Member) [UNKNOWN]
Leban, Sean [PAUL]
Whitman, Byron [PAUL]
Kearney, Janice [UNCOMMITTED, LEANING TOWARD GINGRICH] [petition under challenge?]
Gerlach, Jim [ROMNEY]
ALTERNATE Doyle, Mary Louise [UNCOMMITTED, SOUNDS LIKE SHE DOESN’T LIKE GINGRICH]
ALTERNATE Cutillo, Jonathan [PAUL]
ALTERNATE Peppel, Brian [UNCOMMITTED, LEANING TOWARD DISTRICT WINNER]
ALTERNATE MacQueen, Norm [UNCOMMITTED, LEANING TOWARD DISTRICT WINNER]
********************************************************************
CD 7 (Vote for 4)
Cocco, Michael [PAUL]
Willert, Robert [ROMNEY?] {endorsed by county GOP in Delaware}
Grande, Joe [PAUL]
Owens, David [PAUL]
Lewis, Andy [ROMNEY?] {endorsed by county GOP in Delaware}
Sellers, Patrick Henry [PAUL]
Booker, Patricia [ROMNEY?] {endorsed by county GOP in Delaware}
Puppio, Michael [ROMNEY?] {endorsed by county GOP in Delaware} (2008 Delegate)
ALTERNATE Wood-Jacobs, Katherine
ALTERNATE Kocher, Patrick G. [PAUL]
ALTERNATE Salvucci, Elizabeth
ALTERNATE Egan, John
ALTERNATE Paracchio, Nicholas [PAUL]
ALTERNATE Boyle, Michael P. [PAUL]
ALTERNATE Welsh, Carolyn [ROMNEY]
ALTERNATE Moffa, Rocco [PAUL]
********************************************************************
CD 8 (Vote for 4)
Przybylski, Anastasia (endorsed by Kitchen Table Patriots) [DISTRICT WINNER]
Rosato, Ernest [PAUL]
Merritt, John (endorsed by Kitchen Table Patriots) [GINGRICH]
McCabe, Daniel (endorsed by Kitchen Table Patriots) [GINGRICH]
DiGirolamo, Joe [ROMNEY] {endorsed by county GOP in Bucks}
Serdula, Donna [PAUL]
Loughery, Robert [ROMNEY] {endorsed by county GOP in Bucks}
Puig, Ana (endorsed by Kitchen Table Patriots) [GINGRICH]
Dinan, Charles [PAUL]
Poprik, Patricia [ROMNEY] (2008 delegate) {endorsed by county GOP in Bucks}
Pao, David (2000 alternate)
O’Neill, Bernie (State Rep.) [ROMNEY] {endorsed by county GOP in Bucks}
Pepe, Rob [PAUL]
ALTERNATE Ciervo, Robert L. (endorsed by Kitchen Table Patriots)
ALTERNATE Pepe, Eileen [PAUL]
ALTERNATE (endorsed by Kitchen Table Patriots) Rumbold, Andrew [PAUL]
ALTERNATE Schaefer, Kevin [PAUL]
ALTERNATE (endorsed by Kitchen Table Patriots) Stottlar, Justin [PAUL]
********************************************************************
CD 9 (Vote for 3)
Burkholder, Mary [UNCOMMITTED] (Has solid conservatives values and is a non-politician)
Shuster, Bill [ROMNEY]
Smith, Joan [PAUL]
Thomas, Bob (2008 delegate)
Epps, Meryle-Lynn [PAUL]
Ward, Judy [UNCOMMITTED] (A solid conservative, son is in the Navy, a non-politician. Judy is not sure if she will vote for District or State Winner, but wants the “People” to vote.)
Cruder, Audra [PAUL]
Hess, Dick (State Rep.)
Geist, Richard (State Rep.)
Alloway, II, Richard [SANTORUM]
Kagarise, Wade
Campbell, Allan (1996 delegate) [UNDECIDED, LEANING TOWARD GINGRICH]
ALTERNATE Comfort, Bernadette
ALTERNATE Ward, Judy [UNCOMMITTED, see above]
ALTERNATE Brown, Mark [PAUL]
ALTERNATE Schooley, Travis [PAUL]
ALTERNATE Gambol, Patricia [PAUL]
********************************************************************
CD 10 (Vote for 3)
Cipolla, Anthony [PAUL]
Harris, Mark [DISTRICT WINNER]
Sides, Carol
Price, James T. [PAUL]
Saylor, Pat (2008 delegate)
Brobson, Robert
Wilson, Aaron [PAUL]
ALTERNATE Price, Nancy E. [PAUL]
********************************************************************
CD 11 (Vote for 3)
McPherson, Randolph [GINGRICH]
Harrison, Michael [PAUL]
Etzweiler, Debra
Evans, Kathy
Urbanski, William [GINGRICH]
Ely, Donald [ROMNEY]
Reichley, Evan [SANTORUM]
Haste, Jeff [ROMNEY]
Henry, Lowman [GINGRICH PROBABLY?]
Gordner, John (State Senator) [ROMNEY]
Cusat, Jeffrey
Henry, Scott
Anderson, Michael [PAUL]
Piccola, Jeff (State Senator) [ROMNEY]
Zapach, Joseph [PAUL]
ALTERNATE Anderson, Holly [PAUL]
********************************************************************
CD 12 (Vote for 4)
Laporta, Stephen [GINGRICH THEN SANTORUM THEN ROMNEY]
Pavlick, Jeannette [DISTRICT WINNER, HAS SOLID CONSERVATIVE POSITIONS]
Wilson, Ann [NO RESPONSE]
Cooper, Jill [DISTRICT WINNER]
Majernik, David [DISTRICT WINNER]
Gleason, Jane (Daughter of Bob “Gunner” Gleason. Bob is the Chairman of the Republican State Committee of Pennsylvania.) [SANTORUM OR POSSIBLY UNCOMMITTED NOW]
Fromme, Christopher [SANTORUM OR POSSIBLY DISTRICT WINNER NOW, ALSO LIKES PAUL]
Turzai, Lidia (2008 delegate) [DISTRICT WINNER, HAS SOLID CONSERVATIVE POSITIONS]
Boreland, Lawrence [PAUL]
McMullen, Mike (2008 delegate) [GINGRICH]
ALTERNATE McMullen, Mike (2008 delegate) [GINGRICH]
ALTERNATE Kennedy, Sarah
ALTERNATE Pruchnic, Carol [ROMNEY]
********************************************************************
CD 13 (Vote for 3)
Donnelly, William [ROMNEY]
McMonagle, Michael (2008 delegate) (President of Pro-Life Coalition PA in Lansdale) [SANTORUM OR NOT ROMNEY]
Ellis, Thomas [ROMNEY]
Salvi, Michael Anthony [PAUL]
Yates, Brandon [PAUL]
Boyd, Edward [UNCOMMITTED, ACTIVE TEA PARTY CONSERVATIVE]
Barrilli, Robert
Gilber, Steven J. [PAUL]
ALTERNATE Hennelly, John [PAUL]
ALTERNATE Odhner, Chad [PAUL]
ALTERNATE Fishburn, Shaun [PAUL]
********************************************************************
CD 14 (Vote for 3)
Meloy, Mary Ann
Wander, Joshua [GINGRICH]
Roddey, James [ROMNEY]
Brajovic, Melina [PAUL]
Pfeifer, Carl [UNCOMMITTED](has no preconceived plans based on the District or State winner)
Yanovich, Jared [PAUL]
Haluszczak, Melissa [UNCOMMITTED]
ALTERNATE Maul, Andy [PAUL]
ALTERNATE Sheets, James [PAUL]
WRITE-IN Destro, Tony [PAUL]
********************************************************************
CD 15 (Vote for 3)
Smith, Robert (2008 alternate)
Day, Gary (State Rep.) [petition under challenge]
Carroll, Thomas
Metrick, Michael [GINGRICH]
Simao, Antonio [UNCOMMITTED] (his vote would only deviate if there is a brokered convention, which means he is genuinely open to all the candidates) [petition under challenge]
Browne, Pat [ROMNEY, SWITCHED FROM SANTORUM?]
Blickman, Ellen [PAUL]
McElwee, Charles [GINGRICH PROBABLY?]
Eckhart, Glenn
Diamond, Russ [PAUL]
Piotrowski, Rich [PAUL]
ALTERNATE Felix, Patricia [UNCOMMITTED] (a solid conservative but probably not Paul because of his stance on the military)
ALTERNATE Donatelli, Chris [PAUL]
ALTERNATE Lax, John [PAUL]
ALTERNATE Schulberger, Todd [PAUL]
********************************************************************
CD 16 (Vote for 3)
Brubaker, Michael [ROMNEY] {endorsed by county GOP in Lancaster}
Walker, Robert [GINGRICH]
Sheaffer, Evgenia [PAUL]
Sheaffer, Ben [PAUL]
Womble, Ann [ROMNEY] {endorsed by county GOP in Lancaster}
Frick, Clifford [GINGRICH]
Miller, Rodney [UNCOMMITTED]
Gibson, Andrew [PAUL]
Dumeyer, David [ROMNEY] {endorsed by county GOP in Lancaster}
ALTERNATE Schnee, Marilyn [DISTRICT WINNER]
ALTERNATE Bradley, Ben [PAUL]
ALTERNATE Lawrence, John
ALTERNATE Lafauci, Daniel [PAUL]
ALTERNATE Demme, Ethan [DISTRICT WINNER]
ALTERNATE Scoppettuolo, Jason [PAUL]
********************************************************************
CD 17 (Vote for 3)
Antonello, Anthony M. [PAUL]
Manko, John [PAUL]
Daub, Daniel (2008 delegate) [ROMNEY]
Spano, Charlie [GINGRICH]
McAndrew Spano, Mary Rose [GINGRICH]
Kerr, Robert [ROMNEY]
Miller, Trent [PAUL]
Sterns, Gretchen [SANTORUM PROBABLY?]
Gaetano, Rose Ann [SANTORUM]
Montero, Maria [ROMNEY]
Thomas, Scott
Dougherty, Mary Beth [ROMNEY, SWITCHED FROM GINGRICH?]
Roces, Eltgad
Mezzacappa, Tricia [GINGRICH PROBABLY?]
ALTERNATE Sheeler, Greg [PAUL]
********************************************************************
CD 18 (Vote for 4)
Steeber, Charles [GINGRICH]
Morreale, Steven [PAUL]
Uram, Thomas (2008 alternate)
Means, Sue
Means, Jim
Oliverio, Louis
Hatton, Meryl
Dougherty, Brian [PAUL]
Garsteck, James [PAUL]
Stopperich, Sonia
Silvis, Mary Jo (2008 delegate)
Wells, Jay
Disarro, Joseph
ALTERNATE Garsteck, James [PAUL]

 

[RonRules]

That's the kind of list I was looking for. I know they are officially "unpledged" but I wanted to know what was the stealth allegiance they had. I should be able to make charts with what you just posted.

Won't be for another 24 hours though.

I'm expecting better data from Rhode Island, so don't break your balls with their crazy JSON format. NY is coming also.

A friend, who happens to be an executive in the Cal Democratic party would like to see more 2008 charts affecting Obama. I had made one for Cuyahoga county OH. He wants to see a lot more.

Thanks.

 

[RonRules]

This document was recommended to me if you're interested in the (History) of Election integrity:
"Election Administration in the United States"1934, by Joseph P. Harris, Ph.D.
http://www.nist.gov/itl/vote/josephharrisrpt.cfm

 

[drummergirl]

wow! The contrast is spectacular!

 

[tremendoustie]

Comparing with a hypergeometric distribution would be a good way to show that the slope isn't simply random -- but nobody's saying that -- in fact, it's quite obviously not random. I can't imagine anyone would say you'd get a slope like that simply by randomly sampling a population.

In general, the "cumulative" chart is a distraction, providing no additional information, and adding only complication/confusion. The same relationship can more simply be shown just as a chart of % candidate support vs. precinct size. There is a slope, which is obviously not just noise.

The question is: is there a real relationship between precinct size and voter preferences? Is the slope caused by actual voting trends, or some sort of scheme to commit fraud? Forget math -- this is the objection any who believe this relationship is due to fraud have to address in a logically sound way.

I'm not trying to start an argument, I'm just trying to focus and simplify the issue ... I'm logging off now to go back to work.

 

[drummergirl]

The question is: is there a real relationship between precinct size and voter preferences? Is the slope caused by actual voting trends, or some sort of scheme to commit fraud? Forget math -- this is the objection any who believe this relationship is due to fraud have to address in a logically sound way.

I'm not trying to start an argument, I'm just trying to focus and simplify the issue ... I'm logging off now to go back to work.

That's actually quite easy to answer. If there were a legitimate relationship between precinct size and voter preferences, it would be consistent. It's not. In Nevada, the "relationship" only exists in 2 counties (the 2 counties with 74% of the total votes). Similarly, in South Carolina, New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin, etc. The "relationship" is present in some counties and completely absent in others. My favorite is Outagamie County, WI. It has no flipping in spite of being a fairly large number of votes and demographically similar to it's flipping neighbors. The only discernible difference is that Outagamie County does not use central tabulator software; instead they enter the election results by hand into Excel.

So, the bigger questions are these: if this "relationship" between precinct size and vote preference is not from fraud, what causes it and why does it completely disappear at times?

 

[dr.k.research]

It's completely insane to think that Santorum wouldn't pull a decent amount of votes in Pennsylvania.

Insane?

Who in this universe would really think that, a week-plus after dropping out, a fact constantly reiterated in the news networks: then, 26%? Anyone who promotes--and tries to get us to believe it---is the really insane one.

 

[drummergirl]

There are no polls from after Santorum dropped out and before the primary, but the very idea that half of Santorum's supporters "missed the memo" and voted for him anyway is just bizarre. Also, there ought to be a difference in the absentee ballots (many of which would have been filed before the Santorum drop). Very, very strange numbers.

Insane?

Who in this universe would really think that, a week-plus after dropping out, a fact constantly reiterated in the news networks: then, 26%? Anyone who promotes--and tries to get us to believe it---is the really insane one.

 

[KingNothing]

Insane?

Who in this universe would really think that, a week-plus after dropping out, a fact constantly reiterated in the news networks: then, 26%? Anyone who promotes--and tries to get us to believe it---is the really insane one.

If Rick Perry's name were on the ballot in Texas he'd win in a landslide, even if he weren't actually running.

You underestimate voter stupidity and voter displeasure with the field of candidates.

 

[KingNothing]

That's actually quite easy to answer. If there were a legitimate relationship between precinct size and voter preferences, it would be consistent. It's not. In Nevada, the "relationship" only exists in 2 counties (the 2 counties with 74% of the total votes). Similarly, in South Carolina, New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin, etc. The "relationship" is present in some counties and completely absent in others. My favorite is Outagamie County, WI. It has no flipping in spite of being a fairly large number of votes and demographically similar to it's flipping neighbors. The only discernible difference is that Outagamie County does not use central tabulator software; instead they enter the election results by hand into Excel.

So, the bigger questions are these: if this "relationship" between precinct size and vote preference is not from fraud, what causes it and why does it completely disappear at times?

And if the relationship exists in caucus states where votes were counted out loud and at location, what then?

 

[NowCured]

It's almost like KingNothing doesn't even read this thread he's posting in.

 

[Scott_in_PA]

I really don't think the, delegate vs presidential choice, is going to show much. Mrs. Means in cd18 was running as a state rep and she and her husband both did very well. She won the delegate race. Mrs. Silvis is very active in the party and Mr. Wells was a state rep and ran radio adds for his delegate slot. Believe me it was crushing to here his adds to and from work.

All of westmoreland county is here and seems ripe for the picking though.

	File Layout for Press File (Fixed Length)
	Start
Position	End
Position	Type	Field Description
	1	4	Character	Ballot Sequence Number
	5	6	Character	Party
	7	31	Character	Candidate Name
	32	37	Character	Candidate Votes
	38	42	Character	Percentage of Candidate Votes
	43	45	Character	Precincts In
	46	48	Character	Total Precincts
	49	65	Character	Office Titler
	66	85	Character	Office Area
	86	87	Character	Record Terminator

 

[RonRules]

I really don't think the, delegate vs presidential choice, is going to show much.

What I want to see is if the delegates flat line. If the associated candidate with flips like flipper on a good day, then it's further ammunition down the road.

All of westmoreland county is

I had a look at Westmoreland and the data format was pretty weird although it is well defined. I prefer doing counties that have data that's easy to use first. I'll get to it if you really need it or you live there and can follow up if it's a flipper.

Also, my day at UCRiverside went very well. Had a seminar with about 12 stats graduates and the dept Chairman. Don't know how much work they will do because they already have a lot to do and would probably need specific funding to undertake a large study. I gave them all my data, all 2Gb worth including charts, etc.

Went to the Poli-Sci dept and individually met three professors. Two were interested and I gave them my data. They also recommended other schools that may be more likely to work on the. (U of Michigan for example)

 

[dr.k.research]

...undertake a large study. I gave them all my data, all 2Gb worth including charts, etc.

Went to the Poli-Sci dept and individually met three professors. Two were interested and I gave them my data. They also recommended other schools that may be more likely to work on the. (U of Michigan for example)

This is beyond fantastic. It would be truly grand to publish a peer-review article on these irregularities, while simultaneously gathering up the final proof, that is of vote tampering at the central tabulator.

If it's only money, let's find out the costs, from two different institutions, and take it the next step. We millions of RonPaulers can surely raise the money, if we feeling strongly enough about the investigative group.

 

[drummergirl]

And if the relationship exists in caucus states where votes were counted out loud and at location, what then?

Another good question.

The relationship does exist in caucus states like Iowa and Maine. This is actually incredibly meaningful information. It's what tells us that the problem is in the central tabulator (The computer at headquarters where all those hand counted and witnessed votes are added together).

And the poor souls who thought their votes were safe because they watched their neighbors and double checked the count are completely duped because the computer changed the numbers after they were put in.

 

[drummergirl]

This is beyond fantastic. It would be truly grand to publish a peer-review article on these irregularities, while simultaneously gathering up the final proof, that is of vote tampering at the central tabulator.

If it's only money, let's find out the costs, from two different institutions, and take it the next step. We millions of RonPaulers can surely raise the money, if we feeling strongly enough about the investigative group.

+10 rep