The case for the occurence of algorithmic vote flipping

In other words, no ES&S and no SOE... more pieces fitting in like the fingers in a glove.

RonRules said:
I just got off the phone with Lancaster, PA. They use Hart voting machines as well as a central tabulator from the same manufacturer: http://www.hartintercivic.com/

The lady I spoke to (Dianne Skilling) is in charge of the Central Tabulator. She swore 100% that she never let that PC ever connect to any network. They use memory cards from voting machines (Hart) that are also never connected to the internet.

I have looked at the procedures from Hart and these guys seem pretty thorough.

Here's all the counties in PA that I have done thus far:
http://s269.photobucket.com/albums/jj80/RonRules/Elections2012_Primaries_PA/?start=all
Click to expand...

EDIT: just to clarify, that would not be an OJ Simpson glove ;)
 
Here's a couple more counties form PA:

Centre county, aptly named because it's in the Center of PA is an interesting flipper:
2012_PA_CentreCountyPresPrimariescsv.png


I did Dauphin county strictly because I like the name. Nothing to see here, move along little fishies:
2012_PA_DauphinCountyPresPrimariescsv.png
 
I don't think there is anything fishy about Santorum performing better than Paul in PA. Remember that Santorum was a senator in PA for awhile.

Any idea of Douphin County connects to the central tabulator?
 
Aden said:
I don't think there is anything fishy about Santorum performing better than Paul in PA. Remember that Santorum was a senator in PA for awhile.
Any idea of Douphin County connects to the central tabulator?
Click to expand...

I will not accept that people in PA are that stupid to vote so strongly to a guy that had pulled out a full two weeks before. Even Rick Perry voters were not that stupid.

BTW, I was being facetious implying that Dauphin was fine. Those lines MUST be flat. Dauphin is too a flipping county.

Call up Dauphin and find out.

BTW Dauphin has the absolutely slickest website to display election results. great color maps, etc., but it was all a waste because Romney swept everything.
https://gis.dauphincounty.org/election/
 
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I've got another flat liner in PA. They're closed for the day, but I'll find out tomorrow what kind of equipment they use.

2012_PA_LawrenceCountyPresPrimariescsv.png


They were also nice enough to provide absentee ballot information.

2012_PA_LawrenceCountyPresPrimariesAbsenteescsv.png


Here's why I'am HIGHLY suspicious here. Santorum got about the same percentage of votes though his Absentee count and election-day Walk-In count. People in PA KNEW that Santorum had been out for a full 14 days in advance. (Santorum suspended his campaign on April 10).

Because there was so much time for Santorum voters to be informed I would expect Santorum to do MUCH worse on election day than on Absentee ballots .

If the blue line was actually Ron Paul votes, then it all makes sense.

Be aware that the sample sizes are very small for absentee ballots: (That's for the entire county)
Romney: 117
Gingrich: 17
Paul: 13
Santorum: 62
 
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Here's to put things in perspective:

Herman Cain suspended his campaign and after that was Iowa. Herman got 0.04% of the vote.

Rick Perry suspended his campaign and after that was New Hampshire. Rick got 0.7% of the vote.

Michelle Bachmann suspended her campaign and after that was New Hampshire. Michelle got 0.1% of the vote.
(Can't find a single vote for Bachmann after she pulled out for Minnesota, her home state)

John Huntsman suspended his campaign and after that was South Carolina. John got 0.19% of the vote.

Rich Santorum suspends his campaign and a full two weeks after he gets 26% of the vote in Lawrence County PA? (18.4% statewide)

And you want me to believe that!!!
 
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Nothing to see here, move along.

Truthfully, he was pretty hated here when in the Senate. Biggest defeat ever when he lost his seat. It does seem hard to believe.
 
Papa always said if it sounds too good to be true it most likely is. And hold on to your wallet. :eek:


kathy88 said:
Nothing to see here, move along.

Truthfully, he was pretty hated here when in the Senate. Biggest defeat ever when he lost his seat. It does seem hard to believe.
Click to expand...
 
We have a list of Ron Paul delegates in PA here:
http://www.ronpaul2012.com/2012/04/22/pennsylvania-delegates/

We have the data for all the delegate races in (Allegheny County) here:
http://www.county.allegheny.pa.us/elect/201204pri/el52.htm

I can match up Ron Paul delegates with the delegate races.

Does anybody have a similar list for Romney, Santorum and Gingrich so I can match up the rest of the names?

I could chart delegates and I think this could be just as much fun as Alabama!

Imagine the endless discussions about Romney outrunning his own demographics in PA and everywhere else!
 
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Technically, all the delegates are unpledged.

http://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2012/04/09/pa-republican-delegates-run-uncommitted-to-any-candidate/

but some declare who they are for, and campaigns pass out slates of who to vote for.


RonRules said:
We have a list of Ron Paul delegates in PA here:
http://www.ronpaul2012.com/2012/04/22/pennsylvania-delegates/

We have the data for all the delegate races in (Allegheny County) here:
http://www.county.allegheny.pa.us/elect/201204pri/el52.htm

I can match up Ron Paul delegates with the delegate races.

Does anybody have a similar list for Romney, Santorum and Gingrich so I can match up the rest of the names?

I could chart delegates and I think this could be just as much fun as Alabama!

Imagine the endless discussions about Romney outrunning his own demographics in PA and everywhere else!
Click to expand...
 
RonRules said:
Does anybody have a similar list for Romney, Santorum and Gingrich so I can match up the rest of the names?

I could chart delegates and I think this could be just as much fun as Alabama!

Imagine the endless discussions about Romney outrunning his own demographics in PA and everywhere else!
Click to expand...

This will not work.

I went to dinners and worked the polls all day. Most people don't know what a delegate is.

They just pick a name the know...or think they know.

Look at cd18. We had 3 names and one of us had the #2 ballot pos and another had #8 and me #9.
We are not well known. #2 and #9 recieved ~6000 votes but #2 got ~14000 votes.
The people must have just liked his name or thought, hey I know a "Dougherty"

Also you will see ~60000 votes for a Congressional Rep in cd18 but the highest vote for delegate was ~23000
 
That just plain sucks.

Scott_in_PA said:
This will not work.

I went to dinners and worked the polls all day. Most people don't know what a delegate is.

They just pick a name the know...or think they know.

Look at cd18. We had 3 names and one of us had the #2 ballot pos and another had #8 and me #9.
We are not well known. #2 and #9 recieved ~6000 votes but #2 got ~14000 votes.
The people must have just liked his name or thought, hey I know a "Dougherty"

Also you will see ~60000 votes for a Congressional Rep in cd18 but the highest vote for delegate was ~23000
Click to expand...
 
kathy88 said:
Nothing to see here, move along.

Truthfully, he was pretty hated here when in the Senate. Biggest defeat ever when he lost his seat. It does seem hard to believe.
Click to expand...

He was hated. But so was Bush, and 35-percent of the electorate nation wide still supported him when his approval rating was at its lowest. Put some time between a vote and a candidates low point, and I'm sure his approval rating will rise.


It's completely insane to think that Santorum wouldn't pull a decent amount of votes in Pennsylvania.
 
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