The case for the occurence of algorithmic vote flipping

[RonRules]

I've made 44 charts for Wisconsin. That's about all we've been able to get from the counties so far.

I've updated the look of the charts and made the colors consistent by numbering the candidates. Since we've traditionally made Romney green and RP red, I kept that.
You will be able to access all my charts as follows: http://photobucket.com/flipping_WI; http://photobucket.com/flipping_SC, http://photobucket.com/flipping_VA.

The above short links will lead you to the slideshow
http://s269.photobucket.com/albums/jj80/RonRules/Elections2012_Primaries_WI/?albumview=slideshow

Let's start analyzing:

Is this a flat-liner?

Is this a dumb algorithm or what? Why flip when you're ahead?!

Miss'ed it by that much:

My favorite county in Wisconsin!

Little dodgy wouldn't you think?

This one's interesting. Note how Romney left alone Santorum but only flipped Ron Paul:

Pretty straight slopes would you say Mr. Demographics?

Romney nailed it here:

 

[RonRules]

Look how good those South Carolina charts look like now:

Or how bad they look, depending on your perspective:

 

[drummergirl]

Nice graphics

Outagamie county ftw!

Here's a one page flyer suitable for distribution at events.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1nycaPPtpBCyc1DOt9ybWT1tnOXeczMHav3nfdkBzdBw/edit

 

[RonRules]

Independent analysis I was given this morning. A retired industrial engineer did this for us.

He wanted to see if there was any correlation between the size of a county and Romney's success compared to Santorum.

state Romneyy Santorm
MI 0.35 -0.18 (Correlation)
MO 0.24 -0.07
Oh 0.69 -0.56
FL 0.71 -0.49
CO 0.24 -0.05
GA 0.51 -0.36
MA 0.63 -0.59
IA 0.39 -0.13
ID 0.13 -0.06
MN 0.37 -0.28
NA 0.67 -0.388
NV 0.17 -0.255
OK 0.37 -0.024
TN 0.59 -0.46
SC 0.33 0.15
VA 0.13 -0.13
VT 0.2 -0.16

I think we've got another believer:
"I estimate the odds of this happening by chance at around a billion to one. Each measure of correlation could be positive or negative.
So a simple way to estimate the odds is to treat it like flipping coins.
So odds become 2 raised to power 34 divided by 17. That's around a billion. Next step: run the same test on other candidates in other elections.
I will also go back and add calculations for all the candidates in this report."

InB4 Parocks, DSW: "Romney does better in bigger counties."

 

[tremendoustie]

[deleted by mod - see note in OP]

 

[drummergirl]

Independent analysis I was given this morning. A retired industrial engineer did this for us.

More eyes and more ayes; it's a good thing.

 

[dsw]

Independent analysis I was given this morning. A retired industrial engineer did this for us.

He wanted to see if there was any correlation between the size of a county and Romney's success compared to Santorum.

state Romneyy Santorm
MI 0.35 -0.18 (Correlation)
MO 0.24 -0.07
Oh 0.69 -0.56
FL 0.71 -0.49
CO 0.24 -0.05
GA 0.51 -0.36
MA 0.63 -0.59
IA 0.39 -0.13
ID 0.13 -0.06
MN 0.37 -0.28
NA 0.67 -0.388
NV 0.17 -0.255
OK 0.37 -0.024
TN 0.59 -0.46
SC 0.33 0.15
VA 0.13 -0.13
VT 0.2 -0.16

I think we've got another believer:
"I estimate the odds of this happening by chance at around a billion to one. Each measure of correlation could be positive or negative.
So a simple way to estimate the odds is to treat it like flipping coins.
So odds become 2 raised to power 34 divided by 17. That's around a billion. Next step: run the same test on other candidates in other elections.
I will also go back and add calculations for all the candidates in this report."

InB4 Parocks, DSW: "Romney does better in bigger counties."

Can you ask him what odds he's calculating? Not the odds of a candidate doing better in larger counties than in smaller ones, that's not a question you can answer theoretically. Is he calculating the odds of the data showing these correlations, assuming that candidates don't do better in larger counties than in smaller ones? That doesn't make any sense either because you're calculating the correlations from the complete data set, not from a sample. What is the "this" that he's estimating to be a one-in-a-billion chance?

 

[rb3b3]

will someone be nice enough and tell me where we are at with this vote flipping algorythm? has it been proven further? or has it been disproven?

 

[RonRules]

I decided to go talk to the Math dept at University of California Riverside. They sent me off to talk to the "Statistical Consulting Collaboratory", but they wanted to be paid for this type of work, probably a lot of money.

So I went to the Political Science people. As I was walking through the halls, one of the professor's door was open and I immediately recognized someone I knew fairly well from another group I'm a member of. He's a graduate student and quantitative analyst. I had totally forgotten that he was part of Poli-Sci at UCR.

I spent over an hour with him. He definitely "got it" instantly and was amazed. He was explaining the charts to me faster than I could explain them to him. He asked all the right questions about demographics, etc. He's got the computer skills too. I gave him my entire archive, and he's real excited about this. He's not a fan of the Republicans too, which is a good thing!

He will show this to professor xxx, who is particularly interested in this sort of thing.

Time and funding may be an issue, I hope not. UCR has a whole statistics group and have a large political science department.

Please go talk to your local university. The people in Social Sciences/Political Sciences are always struggling to get adequate statistical confidence in their studies. The reaction I got today from the people at UCR was pure elation.

Try it, go see your university professors. You'll make their day.

 

[affa]

moved again. jeez.

 

[Aden]

I decided to go talk to the Math dept at University of California Riverside. They sent me off to talk to the "Statistical Consulting Collaboratory", but they wanted to be paid for this type of work, probably a lot of money.

So I went to the Political Science people. As I was walking through the halls, one of the professor's door was open and I immediately recognized someone I knew fairly well from another group I'm a member of. He's a graduate student and quantitative analyst. I had totally forgotten that he was part of Poli-Sci at UCR.

I spent over an hour with him. He definitely "got it" instantly and was amazed. He was explaining the charts to me faster than I could explain them to him. He asked all the right questions about demographics, etc. He's got the computer skills too. I gave him my entire archive, and he's real excited about this. He's not a fan of the Republicans too, which is a good thing!

He will show this to professor xxx, who is particularly interested in this sort of thing.

Time and funding may be an issue, I hope not. UCR has a whole statistics group and have a large political science department.

Please go talk to your local university. The people in Social Sciences/Political Sciences are always struggling to get adequate statistical confidence in their studies. The reaction I got today from the people at UCR was pure elation.

Try it, go see your university professors. You'll make their day.

What did you give them? Can you link to a .zip or something? I know two professors who teach poli sci research methods at the graduate level. One of them has co-authored a book on research methods. What can I pass off to them?

 

[RonRules]

What did you give them? Can you link to a .zip or something? I know two professors who teach poli sci research methods at the graduate level. One of them has co-authored a book on research methods. What can I pass off to them?

I was able to sit down on the computer with them for an hour and show them lots of charts (flipping/no-flipping). I recommend you start with the latest version of the "Extended Summary With Technical Information" that drummergirl put together. You may throw more charts at them, but here's what they asked me:
1) The source of all that data (I have kept a file with all the data sources and program4liberty's Java package includes that)
2) Prior year data where no flipping occurs. There's lots of the in NH, IA, FL, SC.

If you are capable of explaining the problem well, try to meet with them. If not get them to contact me and I'll be glad to explain and provide my entire archive of data, spreadsheets, programs (~300 MB thus far)

 

[Aden]

I was able to sit down on the computer with them for an hour and show them lots of charts (flipping/no-flipping). I recommend you start with the latest version of the "Extended Summary With Technical Information" that drummergirl put together. You may throw more charts at them, but here's what they asked me:
1) The source of all that data (I have kept a file with all the data sources and program4liberty's Java package includes that)
2) Prior year data where no flipping occurs. There's lots of the in NH, IA, FL, SC.

If you are capable of explaining the problem well, try to meet with them. If not get them to contact me and I'll be glad to explain and provide my entire archive of data, spreadsheets, programs (~300 MB thus far)

OK. Can you throw me a link to the Java package so I can get the vote data? Thanks.

 

[drummergirl]

for quick reference:

Executive summary with technical addendum:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1EokVx9tDsrjAJ-7H9XoPv3KmZYDvVjSFJ4cuxJTo1iE/edit?pli=1

my notes:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/13K6A_J8lg5qrrMS2TG1mL_fFfbSrqRqea9xR4TzZq8E/edit

one page flyer:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1nycaPPtpBCyc1DOt9ybWT1tnOXeczMHav3nfdkBzdBw/edit

 

[RonRules]

OK. Can you throw me a link to the Java package so I can get the vote data? Thanks.

This is the Java package, including the data for about 20 states. It's the quickest way to analyze. You can run the entire country (at the state level) in a few seconds. With excel, it would take you weeks. The README file is now pretty good and if you follow it, you'll be up quickly.
http://sourceforge.net/projects/voteanalyze/

 

[Pauling]

I decided to go talk to the Math dept at University of California Riverside. They sent me off to talk to the "Statistical Consulting Collaboratory", but they wanted to be paid for this type of work, probably a lot of money.

So I went to the Political Science people. As I was walking through the halls, one of the professor's door was open and I immediately recognized someone I knew fairly well from another group I'm a member of. He's a graduate student and quantitative analyst. I had totally forgotten that he was part of Poli-Sci at UCR.

I spent over an hour with him. He definitely "got it" instantly and was amazed. He was explaining the charts to me faster than I could explain them to him. He asked all the right questions about demographics, etc. He's got the computer skills too. I gave him my entire archive, and he's real excited about this. He's not a fan of the Republicans too, which is a good thing!

He will show this to professor xxx, who is particularly interested in this sort of thing.

Time and funding may be an issue, I hope not. UCR has a whole statistics group and have a large political science department.

Please go talk to your local university. The people in Social Sciences/Political Sciences are always struggling to get adequate statistical confidence in their studies. The reaction I got today from the people at UCR was pure elation.

Try it, go see your university professors. You'll make their day.

This is great news! It would be awesome if we could prevent the vote flipping from happening in Cali and Paul runs away with it. Is this possible? I'm from Cali too, by the way.

 

[RonRules]

This is great news! It would be awesome if we could prevent the vote flipping from happening in Cali and Paul runs away with it. Is this possible? I'm from Cali too, by the way.

I've met with the Registrar of Voters of Riverside to warn them in advance and I gave them a list of what to watch for. I have to meet with them again to see what's implemented. I urge everyone to do the same in their own and surrounding counties. I'll probably also do San Bernardino, because that's not too far for me.

Do get academia support as quickly as you can. As soon as you've got a nod of approval, then go to your local election rep. If you can get them to publish an official scientific paper, that will have a lot of weight with local election reps, rather than our little group here.

 

[jct74]

I modified the note in the OP to emphasize that this is a subject which there are many dissenting views on and that this thread does not reflect the full spectrum of views among forum members on this topic. I will repost it here since it is worth repeating.

MODERATOR NOTE: This is a contentious subject that members of this forum have expressed strong disagreement on. A number of members do not think there is any evidence of vote flipping, but in the interest of avoiding flame wars and derailments to the work that is being done here this thread is to be kept free of any criticisms of this project. To view arguments making the case against the occurrence of vote flipping or to post arguments yourself go here or in other previous threads making the case against vote flipping such as here or here.

 

[arsenius]

I was just taking a look at the results for Dane County in Wisconsin. One common argument against flipping is that Romney concentrates on urban areas, which have bigger precincts. But, check out these (cherry picked) precinct sizes in Dane county.

In Madison, Wisconsin's second largest city, the smallest precincts had 0 (x3 precincts), 1, and 13 votes, respectively, and a dozen precincts with under 100 votes. Largest precincts had 1054 (twice, strangely), 1149 and 1231 voters. However, go a few miles south to Oregon Wisconsin, population 9,498. They only have one precinct with 1022 votes.

What I see happening is that Madison actually has the precincts with the lowest turnouts, at least a dozen under 100 votes, because the small towns all have just one place to vote.

Does anyone want to check Romney's schedule and see how much time he spent in Oregon?

 

[dr.k.research]

I agree with jbauer, what is the next step?


I am currently emailing drummergirl's summary to the county clerks in Wisconsin, because it is voting next week. I am trying to make it clear in the email that I am contacting them as a concerned citizen who wants to ensure that the voting process is on the up and up, whether the claims are true or not. I am including some questions about how voting machine testing is done, based on some concerns that came out in the thread.

I would definitely donate to a chipin of some sort to get this looked at by an independent party also.

Arsenius: Who did you email it to? Just met with the County Clerk in Mil, WI and gave her a stack of papers. Told her NOT to certify; that there were anomolies. She was resistant and insisted that the process was "correct."

Would you be so kind to tell me who you emailed the summary to? I am going back to resubmit more data to the Clerk. P.S. would also donate to any effort to confirm these results.