The case for the occurence of algorithmic vote flipping

[RonRules]

Something BIG coming. I was going to post something big, but this next thing is BIG.

 

[RonRules]

OK kiddies this is important:

A couple of weeks ago, I made a chart of the Attorney General's race in Iowa and found that the Republican was flipping the Democrat. With DSW's suggestion of checking out the Sheriff's in Wisconsin's Dane County's race, I thought I would check ALL the main ancillary races in Dane County. (I skipped the dog catcher)

The data is HERE:
http://www.countyofdane.com/clerk/electres/elect2002d.html

I did the same in Dane County WI and made an incredible finding:

In 2002, Among Republicans and Republicans ONLY:
The State Treasurer
The Attorney General
The District Attorney
The Congressional Representative
The Governor/Lt. Governor
The Sheriff
The Secretary of State
are all flipping their corresponding Democrat opponents.

The flipping is somewhat light, but consistent.
Note that these precincts are not very big and voter turnout this year was small, so there are not that many precincts with > 250 votes. But still the trend is clear and on every chart.

Note that I must emphasize, these lines MUST be horizontal, except for a few bumps at the start of the trace. If you don't believe me, ask a math/statistics professor.

So check this out:


The State Treasurer:

The Attorney General:

The District Attorney:

The Congressional Representative:

The Governor/Lt. Governor:

The Sheriff

The Secretary of State

EDIT: Updated the dates on the charts. They were from 2002, not 2012. It only shows that the problem has been around for at least 10 years.

 

[drummergirl]

Time out for a brain spasm! holy hot cakes, batman!

What really astounds me is the sheriff's race; I'm presuming that is a county office. The republican was already doing just fine on his own and did not need any flipping. So why is is flipping like that? It makes no sense to pad the numbers when you're already way ahead.

OK kiddies this is important:

A couple of weeks ago, I made a chart of the Attorney General's race in Iowa and found that the Republican was flipping the Democrat. With DSW's suggestion of checking out the Sheriff's in Wisconsin's Dane County's race, I thought I would check ALL the main ancillary races in Dane County. (I skipped the dog catcher)

The data is HERE:
http://www.countyofdane.com/clerk/electres/elect2002d.html

I did the same in Dane County WI and made an incredible finding:

In 2012, Among Republicans and Republicans ONLY:
The State Treasurer
The Attorney General
The District Attorney
The Congressional Representative
The Governor/Lt. Governor
The Sheriff
The Secretary of State
are all flipping their corresponding Democrat opponents.

The flipping is somewhat light, but consistent.
Note that these precincts are not very big and voter turnout this year was small, so there are not that many precincts with > 250 votes. But still the trend is clear and on every chart.

Note that I must emphasize, these lines MUST be horizontal, except for a few bumps at the start of the trace. If you don't believe me, ask a math/statistics professor.

So check this out:



The Sheriff

 

[dr.k.research]

The Systematic Rigging of State Vote Counts in Favor of the GOP (by RonRules)

Note that I must emphasize, these lines MUST be horizontal, except for a few bumps at the start of the trace. If you don't believe me, ask a math/statistics professor. [/IMG]

That is in virtually all previous elections where no vote flipping occurred the lines are straight. Thus, there is an algorithmic formula applied on ANY precinct, where there is such an obvious deviation from the norm. No one can disprove this straight line observation.

This is brilliant work, as it shows a consistent pattern only to the benefit of the GOP, which means the GOP exerts some level of control in this corruption--or the people who corrupt it routinely favor the GOP agenda, which is heavy interventionalism: massive and continuous war.

It's too simple for most people to fathom. The central tabulator is source of the rig.

Central tabulators were used to rig the vote count in Ohio in favor of Bush over Kerry. Mike Connell presided over this 'flipping.' Deposed, he testified that he was fully capable through off-site servers of altering the vote count. Connell was killed shortly thereafter in a plane crash.

Now, we can all see that in the high-voter precincts, there is a loss of votes for certain candidates. Let's prove it. Get the precinct tapes, the wons spit out by the electronic voting machines at the end of voting. Ask for them from the County Clerk. Screen the precincts for size. Select the big ones preferentially.

Great work, RonRules. Everyone: get the tapes and make sure they list the final vote totals for EVERY single presidential candidate. It will be different. The graphs prove it. This IS something very big.

Don't have any doubts anymore. Go get the tapes.

 

[RonRules]

Time out for a brain spasm! holy hot cakes, batman!

What really astounds me is the sheriff's race; I'm presuming that is a county office. The republican was already doing just fine on his own and did not need any flipping. So why is is flipping like that? It makes no sense to pad the numbers when you're already way ahead.

I've observed several times that we're dealing with a pretty dumb algorithm.

However, it may have had to be designed "dumb" so that it can run on autopilot, while the election machines are sequestered. So from the bandit's perspective, it's easier to flip all the time rather than only flip when you need to. They were evidently planning for the eventual machine's access cut off for a long period of time.

It's possible that the algorithm/virus only seeks the word "Republican" and flips that up. This would explain the consistent performance in Dane county.

Having known this in advance and if I needed a dog catcher job, I would run as a Republican.

 

[Aden]

I've observed several times that we're dealing with a pretty dumb algorithm.

However, it may have had to be designed "dumb" so that it can run on autopilot, while the election machines are sequestered. So from the bandit's perspective, it's easier to flip all the time rather than only flip when you need to. They were evidently planning for the eventual machine's access cut off for a long period of time.

It's possible that the algorithm/virus only seeks the word "Republican" and flips that up. This would explain the consistent performance in Dane county.

Having known this in advance and if I needed a dog catcher job, I would run as a Republican.

If it wants to flip for Republicans, then how does that explain stealing from one Republican (Santorum, Paul) and giving to another Republican (Romney)?

Also, if we want to bring more attention to this, we should try emailing charts to the losers who had votes stolen from them.

 

[Bohner]

If it wants to flip for Republicans, then how does that explain stealing from one Republican (Santorum, Paul) and giving to another Republican (Romney)?

 

[drummergirl]

If it wants to flip for Republicans, then how does that explain stealing from one Republican (Santorum, Paul) and giving to another Republican (Romney)?

Romney and republican both begin with R; could it be that simple?

 

[RonRules]

If it wants to flip for Republicans, then how does that explain stealing from one Republican (Santorum, Paul) and giving to another Republican (Romney)?

Also, if we want to bring more attention to this, we should try emailing charts to the losers who had votes stolen from them.

I was working most of the day with the data of various parties and had a quick knee jerk post reaction. If not, I'll just blame the 32oz Bud Ice celebration beer.

Emailing the losers is always a good thing to do. Don't let me stop you.

Start licking stamps! It's time we contact as many people as possible. As the thread title says: "The evidence of election fraud is piling up"

 

[drummergirl]

I was working most of the day with the data of various parties and had a quick knee jerk post reaction. If not, I'll just blame the 32oz Bud Ice celebration beer.

Emailing the losers is always a good thing to do. Don't let me stop you.

Start licking stamps! It's time we contact as many people as possible. As the thread title says: "The evidence of election fraud is piling up"

I think it is definitely time we got some states' attorneys general involved.

 

[affa]

not as big a fan of the two person race examples. at least from a layman's perspective, the 4 candidate 2012 elections are much more convincing (to me).

 

[RonRules]

not as big a fan of the two person race examples. at least from a layman's perspective, the 4 candidate 2012 elections are much more convincing (to me).

First, these lines have to be horizontal. It's that simple.

Second, it's the consistency of flipping upwards all 7 races above.

The only problem with two person races is that each candidate is a mirror image of each other. They do have great advantages when you want to dig up demographics, voting machine effects, etc.

Let me make a small prediction. For all the counties in Wisconsin that have this type of output format in the results will have the same type of results that we see in Dane.
http://www.countyofdane.com/clerk/electres/elect2002d.html

In Wisconsin if the number of voters is large enough, you will see flipping favoring the Republicans.

Pull the data and let's start analyzing.

 

[dsw]

Note that I must emphasize, these lines MUST be horizontal, except for a few bumps at the start of the trace. If you don't believe me, ask a math/statistics professor.

If that's correct then there are quite a few examples in the older data on the Dane County site, too.

What would you suggest for some parameters for automatically detecting fraud (according to this theory) with very low risk of false positives? I screened a bunch of data by first selecting only races with at least 50k votes cast, and having at least 40% of the precincts with >= 250 total votes. But then I wanted to be able to see how much each line on the graph changed after the 20% mark (or 30% mark or whatever), and automatically flag any graph that changed by more than X% after that point. Just to automate it so I can run a lot of old data easily. Any suggestions for setting parameters on a test like this?

 

[dsw]

There is a *lot* of election data out there in formats similar to Dane County. Here's one that popped up:
http://www.lanecounty.org/Departments/MS/CountyClerk/Elections/Pages/resultsindex.aspx
and some 1996 data:
http://www.lanecounty.org/Departments/MS/CountyClerk/Elections/Documents/19961105s.txt
A *lot* of these show evidence that a sample taken from the smallest precincts isn't mathematically guaranteed to be statistically identical to a sample taken from the largest precincts of fraud. Just to pick one, starting where it's labeled as page 119 in that file we find a vote on a bond measure for a light rail transportation project. Take a look at the graph below and tell me if that doesn't prove that there may have been a correlation between precinct size and an urban precinct location and a correlation between being in the city and wanting tax money to go toward a transportation project in the city fraud. (It passed.) Similarly in a lot of the other races too.

 

[RonRules]

There is a *lot* of election data out there in formats similar to Dane County. Here's one that popped up:
http://www.lanecounty.org/Departments/MS/CountyClerk/Elections/Pages/resultsindex.aspx
and some 1996 data:
http://www.lanecounty.org/Departments/MS/CountyClerk/Elections/Documents/19961105s.txt

Lane county's data format does not look like Dane county. (Note at how the candidate names are typed diagonally in Dane but not in Lane) That's fine, but I just wanted to be very specific. Normally you're extremely specific. It's important to be specific because each type of central tabulator has different looking output.

I just had a no-money bet stating that if the data format looked just like Dane county, then flipping would be happening. You found another type of data format that has flipping, and that's great.

It is important to recognize that both data formats (Dane and Lane) are a computer report outputs. In Outagamie county and about 8-9 others on the other hand, they are a straight excel spreadsheet, typed in by hand. (More about this later)

a vote on a bond measure for a light rail transportation project. (It passed.) Similarly in a lot of the other races too.

Now that's also an interesting finding. If bond measures are being flipped, we're in a serious mess here.

Please people, jump in on this analysis.

I recommend you use program4liberty's Java program.
http://sourceforge.net/projects/voteanalyze/

Just put your data in this form: (save as ".csv")

Then put the ".csv" file aboce in the votes2012 directory, make a "candidates.txt" file in the same directory, which is just the list of names and hit go! It's that simple.

We need a small army of people analyzing this. We need overwhelming evidence.

 

[RonRules]

Ok kiddies, this is another big piece to fit the puzzle:

As I have been saying for a while, I suspect the vote flipping takes place at the Central Tabulator equipment. I don't know if the software from the manufacturer itself is corrupt or if it's a virus that affects it.

Central Tabulators are a piece of software with names like Diebold "GEMS" (now Dominion), Sequoia's "WinEDS", Scytl/SOE "Results Consolidation Platform (RCP)", Election Systems & Software (ES&S) also with "GEMS" and "Unity Election Reporting Manager".

Here are 8 counties from Wisconsin below. What's common with all these counties? Among other things, note they don't have computer generated reports output like in Dane county (see links below each county name to get each county's data). Their results are provided as a spreadsheet output saved as PDF's or HTML. One county (Richland) types directly into their Web-Based program to display the results on the county website

Here are the counties:

Marinette County, raw results and processed chart:
http://www.marinettecounty.com/i_marinette/d/tally_-_county_board_sg.pdf

Oneida County, raw results and processed chart:
http://www.co.oneida.wi.gov/section.asp?linkid=1162&locid=135

Oconto County, raw results and processed chart:
http://www.co.oconto.wi.us/i_oconto/np/official_4-3-12_29_pres._sum.pdf

Outagamie County, raw results and processed chart:
http://www.outagamie.org/index.aspx?page=837

Polk County, raw results and processed chart:
http://www.co.polk.wi.us/coclerk/election-results.asp

Richland County, raw results and processed chart:
http://co.richland.wi.us/election/april_3_2012/presidentialRepublican.html

Washburn County, raw results and processed chart:
http://www.co.washburn.wi.us/news/county-clerk/362

Waukesha County, raw results and processed chart:
http://www.waukeshacounty.gov/uploa..._Results/Election Results_Pres and County.pdf

Notice there NO FLIPPING?

Here's the big news: I've called everyone of these counties and NONE
use any kind of Central Tabulator software.

They perform the final tabulation by hand, enter it in Excel and upload it to their website. They do however use voting machines at the individual precincts, mostly Sequoia AVC, but no central tabulator at the county level. That's the key.

I paraphrase a famous communist: "It's not who votes or how they vote, it's who (in this case what) counts the votes!"

You can see what individual voting machine equipment they use with this map of election equipment in Wisconsin:

It's a little hard to read, so use this to first find where the county is:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_counties_in_Wisconsin

 

[RonRules]

I probably need to add Dunn and Burnett Counties as a non-flippers, with a homemade final tabulation:

Dunn County, raw results and processed chart:
http://dunncountywi.govoffice2.com/...76A23107}/uploads/Presidential_Preference.pdf

Burnett County, raw results and processed chart:
http://www.burnettcounty.com/DocumentView.aspx?DID=999

I'll call them to check what Central Tabulator they use, if any.

 

[dsw]

Lane county's data format does not look like Dane county.

True, and the exact format is probably a clue about what software they used. I just meant that it was similar enough that with a few small changes to my program I could parse a bunch of files into a directory full of data .csv files and process them to see which races had the most correlation between precinct size and the percentage of the vote for any of the choices fraud.

 

[kathy88]

So Ronrules. Pa elections are coming up. Can you PM me what info I need to get from our elections office, and more specifically what I should/should not discuss with him?

 

[RonRules]

So Ronrules. Pa elections are coming up. Can you PM me what info I need to get from our elections office, and more specifically what I should/should not discuss with him?

Here's the first thing I recommend that you read and have him/her read:
http://www.blackboxvoting.org/toolkit.html
It's a free download:
http://www.blackboxvoting.org/toolkit2008.pdf

These people in PA may be of help:
http://www.votepa.us/

PA has counties with paper ballots, but most counties have Direct Entry Machines, with no paper trail. That would be a bad thing, but I don't believe that the individual voting machines are at cause. You should bitch about DRE's anyway. Other states like VA have outlawed them. It's the case here in Riverside.
This is the equipment in use in PA:
http://www.verifiedvoting.org/verifier/searched.php?ec=allall&state=PA

Many websites tell you in detail which type of vote entry machine each state/county uses. Since 2000-2004 there's been huge visibility from activists about individual voting machines. Unfortunately few websites rarely say what kind of central tabulator they use.

For central count PA uses ES&S. That would be a bad thing, period.
Search results for:
Equipment Used For: Centrally Counted
In Selected State: Pennsylvania
Type of Voting Equipment: All Types
Equipment Vendor: All Vendors
Model: All Models

Pennsylvania-----------Cumberland------ Standard Polling Place Equipment
Central Count Optical Scan Election Systems & Software Model 650 Voter Marked Ballot

Edit: The central tabulator in PA is: Election Systems & Software (ES&S) "Unity Election Reporting Manager". (Also called the "Unity Server"). Even though it is a server, it should never be connected to the Internet.

Here's a few important things to ask your election people:

1) What type of Central Tabulator do you use at the County level (in each county)?

2) What is their individual software revision number. When was it last updated?

3) Who/when was the machine programmed for the upcoming election?

4) Was the central tabulator tested by setting the date to April 24,2012 7:00 AM-12:00 AM (The polls close at 8:00PM; the tabulation occurs between between 8:00 PM and 12:00 AM) The machine preferably needs to be tested by setting it's clock to this particular date/time.

5) Was the machine tested with a minimum of 300 votes? (Preferably 500 or more)

6) Were the actual names of candidates entered (Romney, Gingrich, Paul) rather than fake names like Arnold and Washington?)

7) Are the recorded vote totals for each individual candidate canvassed back to each precinct for confirmation, or is only the total vote count for each precinct checked?
7b) Is there an associated margin of error with the precinct counts and central counts? NOTE: There should not be ANY margin of error here. The totals for each candidate at each precinct MUST absolutely match the total at the central location. ACCEPT NOT APOLOGIES on this one. The results MUST match one-to-one, many-to-many.
(There can be a small margin of error at the voting machine ONLY when ballots are counted by a scanner or hand counted. DRE machines should NOT have any margin of error)

8) Describe in detail the chain of custody between the individual voting machines and the central tabulator.
8a. How is the vote information transferred from each precinct to the central count?
8b. Are the voting machines and tabulators connected to the internet, or other network?
8c. Were any of these machines, especially the central tabulator EVER connected to the internet?
8d. Are voting machine vendors allowed to interact with machines or software at any point after testing and vote certification?
8e. Who has access to the central tabulator?

9) Do you do background checks on any of your election workers, including volunteers?
9a Are they US Citizens?

10. Have you ever heard of Vote Flipping?


As to what NOT to discuss with them:
I would say dolphins. Don't talk about dolphins. Everything else is OK.

BTW, I don't expect the GOP will change their mascot to a dolphin any time soon.